价值链及其实物流、信息流与资金流的会计模式

本文对价值链概念首创者迈克尔·波特的“价值”概念进行剖析,解释了其用价格分析取代价值分析的理论背景,并得出价值链价值实现的出发点为顾客价值的结论;通过对价值链进一步分析,说明解构传统的“纵向一体化”价值链成为必然,而分散的链环将导致实物流、资金流与信息流的分离,使得价值链的价值实现的成败反映在企业对资金、信息与实物的驾驭能力上;而会计管理的工作将是对实物流、资金流与信息流的运作、跟踪、监控、预测与决策。     

Cash Flow Accounting and Liquidity: Cash Flow Potential and Wealth

The persistence of a minority interest in ‘cash flow accounting’ alongside the dominant financial reporting pattern that gives cash flow statements a distinctly secondary role in the line-up of flow statements suggests that something is missing from the analyses of the interested parties. The major theme of this paper is that users rely on historical cash flow reporting for information relevant to projecting enterprise liquidity in the short run, and on financial statements based on accrual-deferral accounting for information relevant to their interest in wealth and income. An explicit distinction between the two accounting objectives (providing information for use in assessing future enterprise liquidity and providing information for use in assessing enterprise wealth and income and performance against investors' augmentation-of-wealth objective) is recommended as a basis for clarifying the issues. That distinction suggests the value of two quite different, but related, sets of data: historical cash flows and stocks and flows of cash potentials.     

Cash Flow and the Eurotunnel

The Channel Tunnel, a major international investment project funded approximately 80% by debt and 20% by equity, is expected to be completed by 1993. The Eurotunnel Offer for Sale document (published in November 1987) contained financial projections based on traditional accruals-based principles. This paper converts the published information to a cash flow-based format and critically assesses the depreciation, taxation, dividend and financing policy implications. The relevance of depreciation policy in cases of projects with finite lives is discussed, and the paper concludes that information prepared on cash flow-based principles provides an alternative and more useful perspective of the Eurotunnel operations.     

资金异常流动监测中资金流速与特征研究

资金异常流动监测一直是反洗钱工作的核心组成部分，而监测工作的目的在于将非法的资金流动速率限制在一定的范围内。本文对现行反洗钱法规中所内含的监测标准进行了量化工作；还针对现有监测约束条件下资金异常流动活动中金额与时间、账户数等参数之间的关系进行了分析，确定了一定条件下资金流动绝对上限。最后本文对洗钱者可能呈现出的新特征进行了分析与设想。     

基金流量与股票市场稳定性

随着我国股票市场的由熊转牛,我国基金市场与股票市场出现了罕见的"双向繁荣"景象.但值得关注的是,一旦市场出现逆转,基金会不会对股票市场带来"助跌"作用,成为金融市场不稳定的一个因素?为此,本文首先对西方学术界就基金流量与股票市场稳定性关系的讨论进行了总结,同时对国外基金流量与股票市场稳定性关系的历史证据进行了考察.在此基础上,本文对我国基金流量与股票市场稳定性的关系进行了分析,并提出了维护我国金融稳定性的相关建议.     

Order Flow and Expected Option Returns

I show that the inventory risk faced by market‐makers has a first‐order effect on option prices. I introduce a simple approach that decomposes the price impact of trades into inventory risk and asymmetric information components. While both components are large for option trades, the inventory risk component is larger. Using the full panel of daily option returns, I find that option order imbalances attributable to inventory risk have five times larger impact on option prices than previously thought. Finally, I find that past order imbalances have greater predictive power than any other commonly used predictor of option returns.     

试析自由现金流量的概念及其应用

"自由现金流量"作为一项财务命题,已成为当今理财学界研究与探索的核心问题之一。本文针对目前国外学者提出的种种不同表述的自由现金流量概念,就其共识与差别进行了分析,并在此基础上对自由现金流量命题在理财学中的应用问题加以介绍。     

Cash Flow Matching

Abstract

We propose a scenario-based optimization framework for solving the cash flow matching problem where the time horizon of the liabilities is longer than the maturities of available bonds and the interest rates are uncertain. Standard interest rate models can be used for scenario generation within this framework. The optimal portfolio is found by minimizing the cost at a specific level of shortfall risk measured by the conditional tail expectation (CTE), also known as conditional valueat-risk (CVaR) or Tail-VaR. The resulting optimization problem is still a linear program (LP) as in the classical cash flow matching approach. This framework can be employed in situations when the classical cash flow matching technique is not applicable.     

Cash Flow Sensitivity of Investment

Investment cash flow sensitivity is associated with both underinvestment when cash flows are low and overinvestment when cash flows are high. The accessibility of external capital is positively correlated with cash flows, intensifying investment cash flow sensitivity. Managers actively counteract the variations in internal and external liquidity by accumulating working capital when liquidity is high and draining it when liquidity is low. These results imply that cash flow sensitive firms face financial constraints, which are binding in low cash flow years. Traditional indicators of financial constraints, such as size and dividend payout, successfully distinguish firms that may potentially face constraints, but are less successful in distinguishing between periods of tight and relaxed constraints. These periods are much more clearly separated by the KZ index, which, on the other hand, is less successful in identifying firms that are likely to face liquidity constraints.     

“自由现金流假说”评析

“自由现金流假说”是公司控制权市场理论的三大核心概念之一，它建立在代理成本研究的基础上，是对代理理论的一大发展。……     

管控“现金流”

目前我国企业的现金流量管理还处于极低的水平。绝大多数企业实行的还是根据国家规定的现金开支范围和银行结算制度办理往来收付结算,以经验和内部牵制制度为主体的管理办法。可以采取     

Cash Flow News and Stock Price Dynamics

We develop a new approach to modeling dynamics in cash flows extracted from daily firm-level dividend announcements. We decompose daily cash flow news into a persistent component, jumps, and temporary shocks. Empirically, we find that the persistent cash flow component is a highly significant predictor of future growth in dividends and consumption. Using a log-linearized present value model, we show that news about the persistent dividend growth component predicts stock returns consistent with asset pricing constraints implied by this model. News about the daily dividend growth process also helps explain concurrent return volatility and the probability of jumps in stock returns.     

我国资本流动与货币供给

我国人民币自由兑换的顺序决定了我国资本流动的结构。而资本流动结构对我国货币供给量情况产生了巨大影响，引发了20世纪90年代的通货膨胀和通货紧缩问题。为理顺我国货币供给，必须对资本流动根据不同类型进行区别管理，并进行管理工具的选择。     

The Usefulness of Direct and Indirect Cash Flow Disclosures

We investigate the ability of disclosed operating cash flow and indirect accruals components to explain annual returns for a sample of Australian firms. Consistent with claims made by accounting standard setters, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for disclosed operating cash flow components beyond aggregate operating cash flows when they also have significant incremental predictive power for future (one year ahead) operating cash flows. Accrual components also have incremental explanatory power for returns. In addition, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for operating cash flow components beyond estimates of the components (based on other financial statement disclosures) for firms with large differences between disclosed and estimated components.     

“热钱流出之谜”与隐性资本流动——对热钱流动规模的重新估算

我国"半开放、半管制"的国际收支(BOP)结构特征和"宽进严出、放长限短"的资本管制特点使得基于资本自由流动国家的热钱估算方法不完全适用我国.热钱在中国流动具有隐蔽性和非法性,必须剔除诸如贸易伪报、资本夹杂和地下钱庄等隐性渠道对热钱流动规模的影响.本文以世界银行间接法和我国BOP为基础,首先提出"热钱流出之谜",然后分析热钱在中国流动的隐性渠道.并将其纳入估算模型,估算结果基本反映了热钱在中国流动的趋势和特点,具有科学性和合理性.     

Short Interest and Frictions in the Flow of Information

This paper examines the correlation between short interest and price delay that parsimoniously measures the delay with which stock prices incorporate information. I find that price delay relates inversely to short interest indicating that short sellers reduce friction in the flow of information into stock prices. While price delay is shown to predict positive returns, this is mostly true in stocks with the least amount of short interest. Multivariate tests determine that the positive relationship between delay and future returns is decreasing in short interest. Results suggest that short sellers reduce delay and arbitrage the return premium commanded by delay.     

国际资本流动类型与"不可能三角"的克服

国际资本流动中权益资本流动的增加,克服了"不可能三角"的限制,发展中国家因而可以实施内外兼顾的经济均衡发展政策.在资本自由流动的前提下,保持货币政策独立性的同时,保持汇率的稳定,需要保持对股权资本的吸引力,因而政策的关键是国内经济基础和金融体系完善,能够对债务性投机资本实施有效控制.克服"不可能三角"需要保护投资人权益、推进贸易自由化、完善金融基础设施、提高国际融资中的直接融资比重以及提高公司治理水平等.