Modeling air travelers’ choice of flight departure and return dates on long holiday weekends

Air travel demand is typically high on long holidays. Understanding factors that influence the choice of air travelers with respect to their departure and return dates on long holidays can help airlines make effective decisions on pricing, ticket sales, and scheduling. We conduct a stated preference survey to examine the preferences of low-cost airline travelers on a particular holiday weekend. A temporally correlated logit model is developed to account for the temporal correlation of day-of-the-week alternatives. The results indicate that airfare is the key variable affecting air travel date choices. The utility of day alternatives decreases when more leave days are required before the holiday begins. Departure dates before the beginning of the holiday weekend and return dates after the end of the holiday are highly substitutable. The low-fare strategy comprising early departures and late returns can effectively increase the load factor of off-peak flights on long holiday weekends.     

Choice model based analysis of consumer preference for drone delivery service

It is anticipated that drones will soon be utilized for a range of applications, including delivery service. However, there has been a lack of research on consumer preference between drone delivery service and traditional delivery service. This is the first study to analyze the consumer preference for drone delivery based on a discrete choice model between the drone delivery service and traditional delivery services by truck or motorcycle. The discrete choice model is estimated using a stated preference survey, and potential consumers’ preference is analyzed for representative commodities with different price. The results show that the price and type of commodities influence consumer preference, which also depends on socio-demographic characteristics such as gender, age, and household income. Specifically, it was consistently observed in all cases that the younger the age, the higher the preference for drone delivery service. This study contributes to predicting the consumer preference for drone delivery service before real service offerings and to supporting the establishment of business strategies for companies who prepare for the new market of drone-based delivery.     

Predicting the impact of Trans Java Toll Roads on demand for intercity air travel in Indonesia

This paper aims to explore the factors influencing a potential air passenger shift to autos due to the completion of the Trans Java Toll Road and an increase in airfares. The study focuses on intercity trips for nonbusiness purposes. A face-to-face interview survey of 751 air passengers was conducted in three main airports on Java Island, Indonesia. Both the theory of planned behavior and the discrete choice model were applied to understand the factors for influencing toll road use among air passengers. The empirical results reveal that psychological factors, consisting of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived moral obligations significantly influenced intentions to use the toll road. Meanwhile, perceived control of external resources was essential for airline passengers in their intention to use toll roads. Sociodemographic factors such as age, gender, income, frequency of airplane use, travel time, and cost also significantly influenced the decision to drive. Female, older passengers, high-income passengers, and frequent flyers were more likely to continue flying. The finding confirms that the Trans Java Toll Road affected a decline in air demand on Java Island. However, traveling with family members, rather than airfare hikes, became a more substantial reason for air passengers to switch to driving the toll roads. This research found that air passengers were inelastic related to changes in travel time, while 6% were willing to switch due to airfare increases of 10%.     

The role of perceived acceptability of alternatives in identifying and assessing choice set processing strategies in stated choice settings: The case of road pricing reform

In designing choice experiments, it is common to present a number of alternatives to a respondent and have them choose the most preferred alternative. However, respondents may ignore one or more alternatives which they deem unacceptable for various reasons. This possibility aligns with the idea of the ‘consideration set’ which influences the choice of an alternative given the choice set of interest. This paper uses an endogenous choice set model to investigate the influence that contextual effects and socioeconomic characteristics play in explaining variations in the choice sets considered by respondents when they reveal their preferences.     

Income and distance elasticities of values of travel time savings: New Swiss results

This paper presents the findings of a study looking into the valuation of travel time savings (VTTS) in Switzerland, across modes as well as across purpose groups. The study makes several departures from the usual practice in VTTS studies, with the main one being a direct representation of the income and distance elasticity of the VTTS measures. Here, important gains in model performance and significantly different results are obtained through this approach. Additionally, the analysis shows that the estimation of robust coefficients for congested car travel time is hampered by the low share of congested time in the overall travel time, and the use of an additional rate-of-congestion coefficient, in addition to a generic car travel time coefficient, is preferable. Finally, the analysis demonstrates that the population mean of the indicators calculated is quite different from the sample means and presents methods to calculate those, along with the associated variances. These variances are of great interest as they allow the generation of confidence intervals, which can be extremely useful in cost-benefit analyses.     

Modelling the preference for business charter in the cross-strait market

This paper aims at investigating business travelers' choice behavior between business charter (BC) and the business class of commercial airlines in the cross-strait market. This study applies the stated preference method and sets five scenarios with the combination of various levels of fares, waiting time, privacy and expedient clearance services and inflight communication equipment. Data were collected by purposive sampling and interviewing business travelers near the VIP centers, departure lounges, and the baggage claim areas of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. A sample with 420 business travelers from Taipei to Shanghai was collected. Then, the binary logit model was employed to analyze how service attributes influence Taiwanese business travelers' choice behavior between BC and business class. Estimation results indicate that fare is the most important factor. Other factors such as gender, seniority, and the number of business trips during the previous year remain significant on the probabilities of choosing BC. Additionally, five specific features of BC were set as dummy variables in the model. Those are transfer time saving, travel time controlling, client entertainment, customer visits and international conference attendance. All of them have positive effects on the preference for using BC.     

Mode choice behavior analysis of air transport on the introduction of remotely piloted passenger aircraft

Remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) are expected to be applied to passenger aircraft; however there is a lack of research which analyzes choice behavior for RPA compared to conventionally piloted aircraft (CPA), in terms of socio-demographic characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to present a model for air travelers’ mode choice behaviors under the assumption that RPAs are introduced to the market. Results show that the fare of RPA should be lowered by a certain amount (i.e., discount factor of RPA) to compete with CPA, and the discount factor should be higher for older, female, and frequent travelers. The results also show that there are still concerns about RPA, and pilot on board is preferred. Through this study, it will be possible to predict the acceptance of newly introduced technology in consideration of socio-demographic characteristics of potential customers.     

Valuation of travel time for international long-distance travel – results from the Fehmarn Belt stated choice experiment

The geographical scope of travel varies from short distances in urban areas to long distances across cities and countries. While urban travel has been widely analysed in the literature, travel over longer distances and particularly across countries, has received much less attention. While this may be justified due to the number of travellers it cannot be justified when looking at the mileage consumption and its resulting environmental impacts. In this paper, we investigate international long-distance travel preferences related to travel between Scandinavia and Central Europe with particular focus on the Fehmarn Belt fixed link between Germany and Denmark to be opened in 2021. To facilitate long-term demand forecasts for the future fixed link, stated preference data were collected in 2011. Based on these data a discrete choice model for long-distance travellers was developed in order to estimate the value of travel time savings (VTTS). The final model, which was formulated as a nested logit model and included Box–Cox transformed travel time and cost attributes, revealed several interesting findings. Firstly, we found damping effects in both cost and time – most strongly in cost. Secondly, we found significant interactions among travel cost and time, and journey characteristics, such as distance and duration. This had direct impact on the VTTS, which was shown to decrease with distance and duration. Thirdly, we found that air travel implies a higher average VTTS, which is to be expected but rarely supported by empirical evidence.     

The origin–destination airport choice for all-cargo aircraft operations in Europe

In this paper, we analyze the origin–destination airport choice for freighter operations of combination and all-cargo carriers in Europe. First, we discuss the choice process of airlines qualitatively. Next, using a stated choice experiment, we show that the presence of forwarders at an airport is the primary factor in explaining airlines’ choices, especially for airlines serving main airports. For airlines primarily serving regional airports, the possibility for night-time flights is most important. Finally, the presence of passenger operations at an airport is not a significant factor and the level of origin–destination demand is of limited importance.     

Public bike system pricing and usage in Taipei

Although widely implemented, public bike systems (PBSs) are facing a conflict between system usage and sustainable financing. The relationships between PBS pricing and usage must be clarified to formulate solutions for the conflict. This research used the Taipei PBS, YouBike, as a case study. A stated preference survey was conducted on metro passengers, and a binary logit model was applied to analyze the pricing effects of PBS on passengers’ choice of using PBS as their transfer mode. A latent class model was also used to identify segment-specific preferences. The empirical data show that whether commuters used PBS as a transfer mode was highly dependent on the basic fee and basic period, but not on the variable fee after the basic period; the basic fee mattered to a commuter's choice more than the basic period; irregular PBS users were more sensitive to the basic fee than regular PBS users; and regular PBS users were more sensitive to the basic period than irregular PBS users. The current results broaden the understanding of how PBS pricing affects its usage and illustrate a pricing policy analysis for YouBike that considers sustainable financing and system usage.     

Recovering costs through price and service differentiation: Accounting for exogenous information on attribute processing strategies in airline choice

The entry of low cost airlines has thrown out a challenge to all airlines to find ways of attracting passengers, through a mix of fare discounting, greater frequency, improved flight times and no-frill's levels of on-board service. These competitive strategies have an impact on cost recovery. As airlines seek business in an increasingly heterogeneous passenger market, a greater understanding of what matters to potential passengers in choosing an airline grows in importance. Traditional studies of passenger airline choice assume that all attributes matter, but some to a lesser extent. What happens to the empirical evidence on willingness to pay when specific attributes are totally ignored by particular passengers? In this paper, we examine the impact of individual-specific attribute processing strategies (APS) on the inclusion/exclusion of attributes on the parameter estimates and behavioural outputs of models of airline service and fare level choice. Modelling practice assumes that whilst respondents may exhibit preference heterogeneity, they employ a homogenous APS with regards to how they process the presence/absence of attributes of stated choice (SC) experiments. We demonstrate how information collected exogenous of the SC experiment on whether respondents either ignored or considered each attribute of the SC task may be used in the estimation process, and how such information may be used to provide outputs that are attribute processing strategies segment specific.     

Analyzing discrepancies between willingness to pay and willingness to accept for freight transport attributes

In this paper we use discrete choice data to analyze asymmetries in the preference for freight transport attributes. A reference dependent utility specification allowed us to test for the existence of substantial asymmetries in perception of the transport cost. Hence, the re-estimation of our models in the WTP/WTA space helped us to quantify significant discrepancies between the WTP and WTA for the attributes included in the choice experiment, namely transit time, service frequency and delays in delivery time. Results are deemed essential to define alternative services to road capable to attract substantial volumes of freight.     

A time-period choice model for road freight transport in Flanders based on stated preference data

This paper presents one of the first models explaining the choice of time-period in road freight transport. Policies that would shift some fraction of the trucks from peak to earlier and later periods will contribute to the reduction of congestion. Therefore there is an increasing interest in modelling the time-period sensitivity of road freight transport to changes in travel time and cost by period. The model developed here is based on a stated preference survey amongst receivers of goods in Flanders and was implemented in the strategic freight transport model of the Flemish authorities.     

A comparison of three methods for assessing the walkability of the pedestrian environment

This paper presents the results of a research project conducted in the UK designed to increase understanding of the factors which influence levels of walking and pedestrian route choice. It describes a number of techniques that were used to assess the pedestrian environment from a pedestrian’s perspective. These techniques included a computer based tool developed using stated preference surveys to determine the relative values of a range of factors in the pedestrian environment; an on-street survey that was designed to investigate values and attitudes towards different attributes of the pedestrian environment along a route; and finally an ‘on the move survey’ where pedestrian volunteers were interviewed while walking along the route in order to get an actual account of their experiences as they walk. A case study is then used to show the benefits and disadvantages of using these different techniques and compares results for a pedestrian route in the City of Leeds in the UK. The results indicate that there were a number of pedestrian attributes considered important by pedestrians when walking including pavement cleanliness, safe crossing places, good connectivity and sense of security. The three approaches complement one another and have highlighted in different ways that the walking experience is affected by the cumulative impact of multiple interactions (both positive and negative) as people walk in the pedestrian environment.     

Forecasting the demand for an employee Park and Ride service using commuters' stated choices

This paper uses Stated Choice (SC) data to forecast the demand for an employee Park and Ride service. Since it is well known that SC data contain sources of variation not present in Revealed Preference data we pay special attention to the scaling of the SC model. The results show that the modal shift away from parking-on site will be small unless the new service is accompanied by measures aimed at making parking on-site less attractive such as introducing parking charges.     

New SP-values of time and reliability for freight transport in the Netherlands

This paper discusses the methods used in a study on the values of time and reliability in freight transport in the Netherlands. SP surveys were carried out among more than 800 shippers and carriers. A novel feature is that both for the value of time and reliability two additive components are distinguished: a transport cost and a cargo component. Specific instructions were given to make sure that the carriers provide the former and shippers that contract out the latter component. The resulting values that will be used in CBA in The Netherlands are presented and compared against the international literature.     

Evaluating the demand for new cycle facilities

There are many studies which report attitudes to cycling and factors affecting the propensity to cycle but very few which evaluate the detailed costs and benefits of new cycle facilities. As part of a review of cycle facility provision in Bradford, West Yorkshire, a large scale survey of current and potential cyclists was conducted in 1994. A stated preference survey design was used to estimate the value placed on the different attributes of four alternative cycle routes under consideration. The results found that safety is more highly valued than time and that some new cycle schemes can be economically justified on the basis of benefits to current cyclists, even in circumstances of relatively low cycle use. The findings are important in the context of the current promotion of cycle facilities and highlights the need for further research and monitoring.     

Preferences for tourist information centres in the ubiquitous information environment

The rapid development of information communication technology has encouraged tourism authorities to carefully consider the typical duties of tourist information centres (TICs), wherein visitors acquire various kinds of travel information about a particular destination. This study aims to provide useful management implications to help tourism organisations develop feasible TIC operational strategies and implement alternative services in the ubiquitous information environment. To provide a richer understanding of tourists' heterogeneous preferences for TICs, this study makes use of the stated preference choice method with a sample of South Korean domestic tourists. Despite the widespread use of personal mobile devices, our study results suggest that South Korean domestic tourists still prefer to visit various types of TICs to acquire travel information. Results indicate that the TIC visitor group is less sensitive than the non-visitor group to advanced information communication technology and more satisfied with the availability of WIFI signals to facilitate the use of personal mobile devices or laptops. Our respondents also demonstrate their preferences for some TICs constructed with container structures, whereas they showed a strong aversion to visiting booth-styled TICs inside larger buildings. Based on these findings, this study provides several management strategies to fulfil tourists' ever-changing needs.