Developing an expert system on project evaluation: Pt II: Structuring the system

The work here described is the early stages of a programme to develop a series of Expert Systems (ES's) in the management of R&D. In particular, the development of a prototype ES using a package program Crystal Ver. 2.1 is the focus together with the problems encountered. The literature had suggested that the use of such packages facilitated the process for those exploring ES's. What was not clear from the literature or the program manuals was the limited range of problems which could be handled. The programs have a rigid structure such that unless the logic of the problem solving process matches that of the program, severe difficulties will ensue. This paper outlines the inherent structure of the programs and indicates the kind of problems which would fit. Specific problems which were encountered when trying to stretch the use of the program are explained in detail. It goes on to explain how these problems were got round using Lotus 1–2–3 which proved far more flexible in practice. This kind of understanding is essential if ES's are to become every-day tools of R&D management. The objective in developing the Expert System (ES) was for it to be advisory to those preparing project proposals for possible submission to higher management within the context of an R&D laboratory. Thus the intention was to capture the expertise of senior managers, make it available to more junior ones, and thereby improve the quality of their work. This concept proved to be naive in that the expertise proved to be so diffuse that a wholly new rationale to structure the expertise had to be developed. This process, the subsequent development into a prototype ES, and its evaluation, have already been published (Wilkinson, 1991). The literature on ES's had suggested that the use of available package programs was straight forward and that the real problem was in establishing the expertise to be used and in structuring it to fit the program. This too proved to be an over-simplification. When this work started, the exact nature of the package programs had not been spelt out adequately. The purpose of this paper, Part II, is to describe their inherent structure and the limitations which this imposes on the kind of problems for which they can be used. The insights gained in this work into the evaluation of projects and the inadequacies of previous evaluation techniques will form the contents of Part III of this series of papers.     

对可行性研究报告及经济评价的几点认识

指出在建设项目前期工作中存在的问题，建设项目前期工作滞后，前期方案深度不够，需对可行性研究报告及项目经济评价的方法与参数进一步完善，重视风险问题及清偿能力分析，提高技术经济人员的综合分析能力，实现投资决策科学化，提高经济效益。     

滩海油田开发特点及经济评价分析

胜利油田滩海油田与一般陆地油田相比，具有环境条件差、开发工程投资高，经济效益边际等特点，具有较大的投资风险，为降低投资风险，必须进行前期经济评价论证。通过对项目财务评价指标的测算和不确定性分析，为项目建设提供决策依据，确保该类油田能得到有效开发。     

经济评价中“决策油价”确定方法的探讨

原油销售价格是油田开发项目必须及石油石化项目经济评价应采用的重在参数之一,但随着我国与国际原料市场的接轨,近年来原油价格变化非常大,油田开发项目的建设周期又比较长,原油价格常常具有可变性,如何利用该参数进行项目经济评价是摆在我们面前的一个重要课题。引入“决策油价”的概念,并根据对世界的油价史和油价影响因素的分析,结合油介变化动态,确定“决策油价”进行经济评价工作,对冀对进一步开展该类项目的经济评价工作起到参考作用。     

The developing field of technology education: a review to look forward

This paper attempts to review the development of technology education over the last 20–25 years. The purpose is to reflect on how far the field has come and where it might go to, including what questions need to be considered in its ongoing development. The data for this paper draw on our work in developing The International Handbook of Research and Development in Technology Education (Jones and de Vries 2009). However, the paper is more than a summary of this work, instead representing a synthesis in its own right. The work was not undertaken to report solely on the collective achievement of a large number of people internationally, but rather to use this as a means for setting a sound foundation for future research, development and teaching in technology education. By considering the underlying philosophy, international development of curriculum, relationships of technology education with other subject areas, teaching, learning and assessment as well as teacher education, and educational research, we are able to scope past activities and present an agenda for moving forward in teaching, research and development.     

The buying network in international project business: A comparative case study of development projects

While previous research has found project buying to be distinct from other buying situations, in that it typically involves a multi-organizational network, to date there has been very little empirical research on this phenomenon. Our aim in this paper is therefore to investigate the structure and decision-making processes of the project buying network during the project cycle and its interactions with project sellers. We first develop a preliminary conceptual framework for analyzing the project buying network, which is then applied to a comparative case study of three development projects. The findings from the case study allow us to propose a revised conceptual framework for analyzing the dynamics of the project buying network during the project cycle, as well as interaction with sellers. Our findings also contribute an understanding of development projects, in particular the role of financiers.     

改扩建项目经济评价中若干问题

做好石油加工行业改扩建项目的经济评价工作,是经济评价人员工作的重点、在总结实际工作的基础上,就经济评价人员在实际工作过程中经常遇到的总量评价和增量评价、企业及项目范围的界定、“有项目”和“无项目”状态的界定和数据选择、效益、费用的识别及改扩建项目经济评价的简化处理等若干问题进行了探讨。     

Developing an expert system on project evaluation: Part 1: Structuring the expertise

This paper reports interim results obtained from research on the development of an expert system originally intended to be advisory to managers at all levels of R&D on the selection of projects. Whilst diversity had been expected, when the 'Experts' were consulted, there was a total absence of agreement as to how projects were selected.
This led to a shift in objectives. The first shift was from project selection to project evaluation which was identified as the real activity which managers undertook in conditions where the number of projects was likely to exceed the resources available. The second was to try to classify projects such that projects in one class might have similar criteria for evaluation
In pursuit of these new objectives, the rigorous thinking necessary to structure the guidance of the 'Experts' into an expert system gave new insights into the nature of projects themselves and their management in support of corporate strategy. This paper sets these out and will be followed by Pt. II which will report on structuring the actual Expert System, and Pt. Ill giving the details of the managerial approach and the decision support process of the actual expert system     

建设项目招标评标方法分析

为保证建设项目顺利健康开展，抓好招标投标无疑是至关重要的环节。根据实际应用的经验，对目前建设项目在招标评标中常用的低价中标法、综合评标法、性价比评标法和工程量清单评标法的表述形式、适用范围、优缺点进行了分析，并对采用这些评标方法应注意的问题和改进的方向提出了建议。     

我国CCS发展的现状、前景及障碍

经济增长、能源结构和环境容量决定了CCS是我国应对气候变化的重要战略选择。介绍了我国CCS政策制定、技术研发、项目示范、国际合作等方面的现状,从潜力、成本、国情等视角分析了CCS发展的前景,从能耗、技术、资金、市场、环境等维度揭示了CCS发展的障碍,并提出了若干对策建议。     

聚合物驱三次采油项目经济评价方法与参数研究

结合聚合物驱三次采油项目评价的实际工作，对该类项目评价方法和参数的一些具体问题进行了分析和研究，提出了相应的解决办法，并力求具有一定的可操作性。     

Investigating differences among research projects and implications for managers

As research and innovation have become central to the economy, the challenge of managing these activities has taken on greater importance. Studies have focused on the impact of organizational variables on research activities, such as work environment, human resource factors, and managerial practices. But little attention has been paid to the effect of differences among types of research projects. While the notion that differences exist among research projects is acknowledged, particularly in the research & development portfolio literature, there have been relatively few studies into the dimensions by which research projects, and needs of project team members, differ. Further, there is little recognition that these differences translate into the need for different research project management practices. The objective of this paper is to investigate differences among research projects along three dimensions, amount of funding, complexity of project teams, and research orientation. These dimensions are selected because of their central theoretical importance in the organizational literature, as well as posing a number of different challenges for research management. This study looked at 18 research projects at a national laboratory and analyzed the responses of project members to a comprehensive research environment survey conducted in 2001. The results of the analysis indicate that there are significant differences between types of projects along three dimensions and suggest ways that research performance can be improved through management intervention.     

试论文物保护工程中的造价管理与实践

随着国家经济和社会的不断发展,各地开展文物保护工程的项目不断增多,对文物保护工程的造价管理提出了更高要求.笔者发现长期以来对该领域的工程造价研究还不够,实际工作中经常引起造价争议,进而给确定工程造价合理化和市场化带来困扰.文章从文物古建筑、古墓葬、古遗址等保护工程出发,并结合国家文物局发布的《文物建筑保护工程预算定额(...     

Motivation levels in pupils project work: observations from an action research programme with particular reference to groupwork

Conclusions The new Proposals for Technology for England and Wales (DFE December 1992) suggest Design and Make Tasks (DMTs) ie. project work as being the major method of Design and Technology learning. This article has been primarily concerned with questions of motivation within project work but has touched on other-fundamental aspects. As a teaching/learning technique group project work has limitations as indicated above. However it would appear that many teachers do not recognise these limitations and produce poor practice. An example would be the frequent failure to use end of lesson debriefs to share individual's experience and to reflect. It is important that we now begin to develop a clearer understanding of project work as a learning experience. The DFE document offers little guidance; more research and debate is necessary to identify the assumptions and put forward practical advice on how to maximise the potential benefits of project work in Design and Technology.     

Definition of innovation projects in small firms: A Spanish study

Small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) are the main holders of the European economy and innovation projects are essential tools for SMEs to ensure their growth. A high percentage of innovation projects implemented by SMEs lacks planning and initial management, which causes the appearance of important problems for the SMEs survival. The authors have confirmed with a field study of 72 Spanish small firms that a lot of these problems arise from an incomplete project definition, so it is necessary to help SMEs to have a specific methodology that is appropriate to their own characteristics and projects. The statistical analysis shows how the project management knowledge helps to a better project definition, contributing to the project alignment with the company strategy. Also, it reveals other problems related to the project definition as planning, budget, market and financing. Of this analysis, it concludes that the definition phase supports the other phases and is essential in order to achieve project success. This paper presents an ‘integration model of factors’ that helps SMEs in the management of the definition phase of their innovation projects. This model relates the various areas of analysis needed to ensure their integration at the project definition. The relationships between the different model areas have been defined, showing the way to integrate the technical, economic and strategic outlooks of project objectives management in the definition phase of the project. This model has been implemented in 21 new innovation project definitions. The users' valuation has been very positive with a 90.4% of success and all of the model users are interested in implementing the model again in next projects. The main advantages highlighted were user‐friendliness, intuitive model and easy application.     

New Product Development Practices and Early‐Stage Firms: Two In‐Depth Case Studies

New product development practices (NPD) have been well studied for decades in large, established companies. Implementation of best practices such as predevelopment market planning and cross‐functional teams have been positively correlated with product and project success over a variety of measures. However, for small new ventures, field research into ground‐level adoption of NPD practices is lacking. Because of the risks associated with missteps in new product development and the potential for firm failure, understanding NPD within the new venture context is critical. Through in‐depth case research, this paper investigates two successful physical product‐based early‐stage firms' development processes versus large established firm norms. The research focuses on the start‐up adoption of commonly prescribed management processes to improve NPD, such as cross‐functional teams, use of market planning during innovation development, and the use of structured processes to guide the development team. This research has several theoretical implications. The first finding is that in comparing the innovation processes of these firms to large, established firms, the study found several key differences from the large firm paradigm. These differences in development approach from what is prescribed for large, established firms are driven by necessity from a scarcity of resources. These new firms simply did not have the resources (financial or human) to create multi‐ or cross‐functional teams or organizations in the traditional sense for their first product. Use of virtual resources was pervasive. Founders also played multiple roles concurrently in the organization, as opposed to relying on functional departments so common in large firms. The NPD process used by both firms was informal—much more skeletal than commonly recommended structured processes. The data indicated that these firms put less focus on managing the process and more emphasis on managing their goals (the main driver being getting the first product to market). In addition to little or no written procedures being used, development meetings did not run to specific paper‐based deliverables or defined steps. In terms of market and user insight, these activities were primarily performed inside the core team—using methods that again were distinctive in their approach. What drove a project to completion was relying on team experience or a “learn as you go approach.” Again, the driver for this type of truncated market research approach was a lack of resources and need to increase the project's speed‐to‐market. Both firms in our study were highly successful, from not only an NPD efficiency standpoint but also effectiveness. The second broad finding we draw from this work is that there are lessons to be learned from start‐ups for large, established firms seeking ever‐increasing efficiency. We have found that small empowered teams leading projects substantial in scope can be extremely effective when roles are expanded, decision power is ground‐level, and there is little emphasis on defined processes. This exploratory research highlights the unique aspects of NPD within small early‐stage firms, and highlights areas of further research and management implications for both small new ventures and large established firms seeking to increase NPD efficiency and effectiveness.     

Managing the Unexpected Across Space: Improvisation,Dispersion, and Performance in NPD Teams

Organizations are increasingly moving toward a team‐based structure for managing complex knowledge in new product development (NPD) projects. Such teams operate in an environment characterized by dynamic project requirements and emergent nonroutine issues, which can undermine their ability to achieve project objectives. Team improvisation—a collective, spontaneous, and creative action for identifying novel solutions to emergent problems—has been identified as a key team‐situated response to unexpected challenges to NPD team effectiveness. Geographic dispersion is increasingly becoming a reality for NPD teams that find themselves needing to improvise solutions to emergent challenges while attempting to leverage the knowledge of team members who are physically distributed across various locations. However, very little is known about how teams' improvisational actions affect performance when such actions are executed in increasingly dispersed teams. To address this gap in the literature, this paper draws on the emerging literature on different forms and degrees of team dispersion to understand how team improvisation affects team performance in such teams. In particular this paper takes into account both the structural and psychological facets of dispersion by considering the physical distance between team members, the configuration of the team across different sites, as well as the team members' perception of being distant from their teammates. Responses from 299 team leaders and team members of 71 NPD projects in the software industry were used to analyze the relationship between team improvisation and team performance, as well as the moderating effect of the three different conceptualizations of team dispersion. Results of the study indicate that team improvisation has a positive influence on project team performance by allowing team members to respond to unexpected challenges through creative and timely action. However, increasing degrees of team member dispersion (both structural and psychological) attenuate this relationship by making it difficult to have timely access to other team members' knowledge and by limiting real‐time interactions that may lead to the development of creative solutions. The results of this research offer guidance to managers about when to balance the desire to leverage expertise to cope with unexpected events. Moreover, the present paper provides directions for future research on improvisation and team dispersion. Future research is encouraged to investigate factors that may help highly dispersed teams to overcome the shortcomings of team dispersion in dealing with emergent events.     

关于项目评估若干问题的研究

通过阐述投资项目评估咨询工作的特征、内容、方法、一般的管理程序、项目评估报告的编制方法及当前在项目前期工作中存在的一些问题，阐述了项目评估咨询工作的作用、意义及改进方法。     

Measurement,mitigation and prevention of food waste in supply chains: An online shopping perspective

This study introduces a framework and model, although applied in a practical setting, sets the stage for further theoretical development of mid-range theory. The methodology applied in the study has four main stages, namely interviews with managers from an online food retail supply chain, analysis of soft and hard data using questionnaire-based surveys of customers and suppliers, archival and factual information gathered from the supplier and the online food retailer to measure food waste across the supply chain and analytical models to quantify various effects. A number of propositions emerged from our multiple methodologies and observations. The major research contribution of this work is to advance Natural Resource Based View (NRBV) to the supply chain and various complexities involved in food waste management. Dynamic capabilities were clearly evident and necessary in rapidly changing industrial contexts such as online food supply chains. This paper also proposes a food waste minimization-and-mitigation model, establishes the direct and indirect outputs of food waste and brings attention of the food waste debate in the context of an exemplar online food supply chain, as well as provides a middle range theoretic framework to enhance understanding on theory and its application to this field informed mainly NRBV.     

Qualitative aspects of the evaluation and control of research and development projects

Decisions in research and development are usually based on a variety of data inputs. Some of these will be concerned with the returns offered by projects in money terms. Others will relate to more qualitative aspects of research work such as, perhaps, the establishment of a base in a new area of technology or the achievement of a stronger market position. This paper describes and illustrates how checklists may be used to assemble qualitative data for purposes of decision. These were formulated in an industrial R & D laboratory and the illustrative examples in the text make reference to real projects. The checklists described are an integral part of a comprehensive system of project evaluation and control in R & D which includes an analysis of the financial implications using net present value or discounted cash flow rate of return of the project risk, analysis and sensitivity tests. The detail of this part of the scheme is conventional and is therefore omitted from the paper.