房地产投机理论与实证研究

房地产投资中存在着大量的投机行为，然而是什么决定着房地产投机行为呢?我们认为房地产开发商的投机性预期、房地产市场中买卖双方的交易行为是房地产投机行为产生的主导因素，也是房地产价格及房地产泡沫形成的关键性因素之一。因此，本文将对房地产投机理论进行探讨，并对中国房地产业投机行为进行实证分析。     

沪深股市理性投机泡沫的实证分析

本文采用持续期限检验方法对我国沪深股市是否存在理性投机泡沫进行了实证检验，检验结果显示，在样本期内，沪深股市均具有理性投机泡沫特征，与深市相比，沪市理性投机泡沫现象更加显著。     

金融泡沫与投机资本研究

在全球一体化的今天,各国的金融市场之间的联动效应越发明显。国际间资本流通障碍减小,投机资本特别是国际游资对于一国的经济和金融体系的影响逐渐加大。随着中国资本市场的不断开放,QFII或其他形式的热钱进入中国,我们有必要研究投机资本对金融泡沫的影响,以有效控制风险,保证我国多层次资本市场健康稳定发展。在创业板刚刚推出之际,有必要对投机资本与金融泡沫二者进行分析,同时对于投机资本对实体经济的影响进行分析。     

基于行为金融理论的非理性投机泡沫模型研究

行为金融学从投资者非理性的角度揭示资产泡沫的生成机理,为泡沫理论研究提供了新思路。本文从利空和利多两个方面考查投资者行为因素的影响,从而构造出非理性投资泡沫模型,并利用我国股市数据对模型进行实证研究。     

房产税能够降低房价吗——基于DID方法对我国房产税试点的评估

基于2006-2012年全国35个大中城市的面板数据,利用DID(倍差法)检验了上海、重庆房产税试点对商品房价格、商品房中住宅价格以及住宅中高档住宅价格的影响。研究发现,我国房产税试点中不存在明显的政策预期效应;房产税试点显著降低了住宅价格,但对商品房价格和高档住宅价格影响不显著。因此,对房地产市场调控而言,仅仅依赖房产税政策将存在较大的局限性,需结合其他手段进行综合调控。     

股市投机泡沫:理论模型、检验与度量方法研究

投机泡沫是导致泡沫经济并引发经济危机的重要根源,而不断扩大的股市泡沫则预示着泡沫经济的到来。投机泡沫的度量方法包括股价指数的上涨时间、上涨速度和换手率、股票市场的相对成长性估值类方法和Q比率方法。但是这些方法对经济发展及社会的经济环境不能全面地考虑。应构造建立在股票内在价值基础上的检验方法,运用相对估计指标对泡沫进行全面的度量,从而提高泡沫检验的准确度和对股票价值检验及预测的实际应用能力。     

房地产价格波动与投机行为--对中国14城市的实证研究

本文首先构建了适合中国的房地产投机理论模型,然后利用该模型对中国14个城市房地产价格波动与投机行为的关系进行实证研究.对14城市的时间序列数据研究结果表明各城市房地产投机水平都很高,个别城市更加突出.通过对14城市的截面数据分析,可以看出可支配收入对房地产价格没有显著影响,这些城市房地产价格的上升,主要是由投机来推动的,而且整体投机度非常高,说明房地产价格极大的偏离长期均衡值,市场出现了非理性繁荣,政府和产业部门应该采取适当的措施,积极引导消费者和投资者,为建立均衡的房地产市场提供良好的宏观和微观环境.     

可怕的《泡沫》

作者简介: 约翰·卡尔弗利,美国运通银行首席经济学家和战略顾问, 他致力于经济学和市场分析的研究写作已经25年,是总部设在伦敦的全球经济联盟的经济发展,投资策略,营销管理和客户关系方面的顾问。他为运通银行编写了一套关于经济和市场发展趋势的从书《投资经济学》,并发表了多篇有影响的论文,如《危机后的新兴股票市场》,《基于经济学原则的投资忠告》等。     

北京市房地产泡沫测度实证分析

由房地产泡沫破灭所引发的美国次贷危机让全世界都深受其害,也让人们更加深刻地了解到经济泡沫的威力.而国内关于我国房地产市场是否存在泡沫也众说纷纭.本文通过各种方法来测度北京市房地产泡沫,并通过实证分析来证明北京市房地产泡沫的存在,分析房地产泡沫对北京经济发展及社会产生的影响.     

关于房产税改革的若干问题探讨——基于重庆、上海房产税试点的启示

本文首先厘清了房产税改革理论上的几个疑点问题,其次对沪渝两市的房产税改革的试点效应做了对比分析,最后提出了房产税进一步改革的设想和建议。通过分析本文认为房产税的征收不应该受财产所有权制度的限制,房产税的主要功能是在财税分权的体制改革中成为地方政府的主体税种,同时也是调控房价的主要杠杆之一,房产税应加大改革力度,在不增加居民整体税负的前提下分步推进。     

空置税：取代物业税的一种思路

近期，社会各界对物业税应否进入政府操作层面的争论再度升温。剖析物业税可能带来的矛盾与问题，可得出以空置税取代物业税的思路：一方面，空置税可以吸收国际上利用物业税有效调控房地产市场的成功经验，发挥物业税的积极作用；另一方面，空置税可以避免在我国当前客观实际情况下开征物业税可能带来的种种弊端。     

Assessing tax reforms through the elasticity of reported income: an empirical analysis for Spain

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the elasticity of reported income to assess tax reforms from the perspectives of tax revenue and well-being. Employing different identification strategies, evidence is provided of the value of the elasticity of gross reported income in Spain and, based on this elasticity, a detailed assessment is made of the impact of the increase in marginal tax rates which the Spanish government approved in 2012. We use microdata from the Taxpayers Panel of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The mean value of this elasticity for Spain is 0,363 with considerable heterogeneity depending on taxpayers’ characteristics.     

Tax and spend or spend and tax? An empirical investigation for Austria

The aim of this contribution is to discriminate between the rivallingspend and tax andtax and spend hypotheses in order to check empirically the relationship between government spending and taxation decisions in Austria. For that purpose, the authors estimate a tri-variate structural VAR Model of Austria's public sector that, besides expenditures and revenues, includes aggregate income as an additional variable. They implement impulse-response functions and frequency domain techniques in order to identify the causal relation between government outlays and receipts. The budget making process is interpreted as an error correction model which allows to estimate to what extent revenues and expenditures are adjusted whenever the government sees its long run budget constraint violate. The empirical findings strongly support the spend and tax view that budget decision-making is significantly dominated by the expenditure side in Austria.We are gratefully indebted to Peter Weiss and three anonymous referees for many valuable comments and suggestion.     

Information sharing for consumption tax purposes: An empirical analysis

The paper studies the determinants of information sharing between Swedish tax authorities and 14 EU tax authorities for value-added tax (VAT) purposes. It is shown that trade-related variables (such as the partner country’s net trade position and population size), reciprocity, and legal arrangements are significant determinants of Sweden’s trade in tax information. Countries that are net exporters of goods to Sweden appear to be net importers of information from Sweden, reflecting their need for information to combat export-related VAT fraud. Reciprocity plays a more important role in Sweden’s export of information upon official request than in its spontaneous export of information.     

Numerical simulation on property tax reform: evidence from China

This article analyses the property tax reform in China in a computable general equilibrium model that recognizes the interaction between and among housing markets in different provinces and macroeconomic development. Using real data in 2010, we present the benchmark equilibrium for reference property and income tax rates. Then, we examine different property and income tax policies and make a comparison of their production, consumption, welfare and national income. We find that the implementation of property tax would decrease the house production at the expense of welfare in taxed area. The expansion of the taxed regions may increase the total social welfare and national income. Even though property tax policy may not be able to change the income distribution in China, increasing income tax rate could narrow the income disparity. Finally, this article shows the reliability of the conclusions when sensitivity analysis on optimal condition of equilibrium computation is performed under varied property tax policy.     

Consumption tax revenue and personal income tax: analytical elasticities under non-standard tax structures

This article models the elasticity of consumption taxation faced with changes in disposable income. Its calculation makes clear the importance of the design of the personal income tax and of the changes caused to the consumption of taxpayers. The modelling is performed for both individual taxpayers and the population as a whole.     

房地产税渐进改革路径*——基于税制要素设计的实证研究

在保持房地产市场平稳的前提下,使房地产税成为地方重要税种是中国房地产税改革的重要政策目标,但在高房价收入比背景下,这二者相互冲突。本文基于房地产税制要素设计和微观家庭数据测算,探讨中国房地产税的渐进改革路径及其影响,认为鉴于居民纳税能力受高房价收入比限制,房地产税可从低税率、高减免起步;伴随房价收入比收敛,逐步提高税率、降低减免。起步阶段,税制改革应重视居民纳税能力和纳税意愿,优先实现房地产市场平稳软着陆;在中长期,房地产税可逐步成为地方政府主体税种,起到完善税制和地方税体系、提升地方治理能力的作用。     

Brief analysis on value-added tax transformation and its influence on enterprises

From Jan. 1st, 2009, the value-added tax transformation will be performed in all industries around the country. Based on value-added tax types and retrospection of reform practices, this article analyzes the background of the national value-added tax transformation and points out the influence of full implementation of the value-added tax transformation on various enterprises.     

The contractionary effects of tax shocks on productivity: An empirical and theoretical analysis

I analyze the effects of tax policy changes on US Total Factor Productivity. VAR estimates show that permanent and exogenous tax increases have strong, permanent, and negative effects on TFP which represent about 80% of change in output following the tax increase. I then build a DSGE model which has learning-by-doing and endogenous TFP evolution. The benchmark model is able to replicate the empirical impulse responses. However, when I calibrate the model as in the literature, the effect of taxes on TFP is substantially less elastic than in the data. I argue that this divergence may arise because tax changes labeled as exogenous can give spurious results or because of a mis-specified model.     

物业税可行吗？

物业税作为一种财产税，具有其自身的特征。未来我国在物业税的设计过程中需要考虑多种因素，规避相关风险，否则很可能使得现在的高房价变成未来的高额物业税。