皖江城市带承接长三角产业转移的空间差异分析

产业转移是建立在经济联系的基础上,区域经济联系的强弱很大程度上影响产业转移规模的大小。从皖江各城市本身的经济实力和规模、各城市与长三角地区的可达性和经济联系总量、泛长三角地区城市流强度等多个角度,带内与带外层面相结合测算了皖江城市带各城市与长三角城市的区域联系大小。为求得区域联系综合值,作者构建了综合测算模型,利用各类区域联系数据测算出皖江各城市与长三角城市综合联系值,从区域联系角度评估皖江城市带各城市承接长三角产业转移可能规模梯次。评估得出承接产业转移规模梯次从大到小依次是:合肥、芜湖、马鞍山、安庆、宣城、滁州、巢湖、铜陵、池州。最后提出了一些为承接好长三角产业转移的办法措施。     

要素与资产价格重估背景下当前非典型通胀的表现及治理

当前我国经济转型和市场化进程,以及中国近三十年来的发展战略是催生当前通胀发生的体制背景.此次通胀的发生有着"混合型通货膨胀"的特征,体现为货币过剩和结构性的非典型通胀.要理解这种特征事实,需要深入分析当前我国经济增长和转型的体制背景,以及宏观经济变量的互动机制.此类通胀治理问题的关键在于有效的政策搭配.     

Trade,structure and linkages in Costa Rica: An input-output approach

Input-output tables for Costa Rica are used first to assess the country's trade performance; it is argued that trade with the rest of Central America has produced a Costa Rican comparative advantage in consumer durables. The paper then uses the input–output tables to examine the economy's structure, which is shown to be block triangular. Finally, measures of linkages are derived from the tables and a critique of the growth-inducing linkage mechanism is presented.     

Restructuring corporate r&d: from an autonomous to a linkage model

Since the mid-1980s, industrial R & D in the US has been going through major changes, i.e. a decline in industrial R&D expenditure and restructuring of centralized coqorate R&D laboratories. the autonomous model of rerearch, which has existed since World War Il, is being replaced by the linkage model in many leading corporate R&D laboratories. This paper presents the main features of both models, the reasons behind the retructuring, and the future implications of the linkage model. The findings of the paper are primarily based on 53 industrial with industrial scientists and managers; most of the changes are new and have not been examined in the literature. This paper draws the attention of scholars to recent changes in the management qf znnovatzon and sugests further study. The linkage model links scientists' research to the immediatt needs of business. However, it also decreases the likelihood of major breakthroughs occurring in technological in.innovation.     

Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition

The aim of this paper is to quantify the welfare effects of some currently discussed pension reform proposals in Germany. The analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for intra-generational heterogeneity, rising life expectancy and declining fertility. Given a baseline path of the economy under the existing unfunded pension system, the model calculates the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various pension reform measures aimed at reducing the level of the future unfunded pension system. Simulations reveal that pension reforms cannot be evaluated solely in terms of inter- and intra-generational equity. Substantial efficiency gains or losses might arise if the linkage between contributions and benefits is improved or weakened.     

COMOVEMENTS OF DIFFERENT ASSET CLASSES DURING MARKET STRESS

This paper measures US financial asset class linkages (stocks, bonds, T‐bills and gold) during crisis periods. We use extreme value analysis to assess the bivariate exposure of one asset class to extreme movements in the other asset classes. These bivariate co‐crash probabilities can be interpreted as a measure of financial contagion. Statistical testing reveals that bivariate extreme linkage estimates exhibit time variation for certain asset pairs, possibly caused by exogenous factors like oil shocks or shifts in monetary policy. Our results have potentially important implications for long‐run strategic asset allocation and pension fund management.     

基于网络分析的产业部门碳减排措施研究

以国家统计局2007年公布的42个产业部门作为产业部门碳排放网络中的网络节点,用部门间完全碳排放系数作为网络的边,对中国产业部门的碳减排措施进行了深入研究。研究结果表明:电力、热力的生产和供应业、石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业以及金属冶炼及压延加工业是中国产业体系中碳排放的中心产业部门,利用其中心地位产生的联动效应实施具体的节能减排措施,可以使节能减排效应向其他产业部门扩散,最终实现中国经济结构的顺利转型。     

Does Institutional Quality Matter for Financial Development and Growth? Further Evidence from MENA Countries

This study scrutinises the role of institutional quality in the linkage of financial development and economic growth in 21 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. Using the common correlated effect mean pooled approach and annual data for the period 1980–2012, we find that not all measures of financial development promote economic growth in the absence of institutional quality, but they all augment growth in the presence of institutional quality. Furthermore, we find that foreign direct investment enhances the growth of MENA countries by the development of financial markets.     

沿海欠发达地区经济联动开发模式研究——以江苏沿海开发为例

区域经济联动发展作为一种区域经济合作方式,受到密切关注。沿海欠发达地区面对经济高地的压力,要紧紧抓住其发展机遇,充分挖掘自身优势,打造新的经济发展模式,才能赶超经济发达地区。本文在总结国内区域经济联动发展理论与实践的基础上,提出沿海欠发达地区要建立多角度、多层次的经济联动开发模式。首先要实现城市联动,通过不断强化中心城市的集聚、扩散作用和壮大县域经济实力,打造经济中心与腹地经济联动发展的沿海经济圈;其次要实现产业联动,通过传统特色产业与新兴高科技产业联动和陆地产业与海洋产业联动相结合,打造支柱产业与新兴产业联动发展的沿海经济带;还要实现＂港口-城镇-产业＂联动,通过港口与城镇联动和港口与产业联动,打造港口、产业和城镇三位一体的港口经济区。希望可以为沿海欠发达地区的经济发展提供理论依据和借鉴参考。     

Economic uncertainty and corruption: evidence from a large cross-country data set

A vast amount of research has considered numerous causes and correlates of corruption. Also, there have been many studies of the consequences of various forms of uncertainty. However, exploration of the nexus between economic uncertainty and corruption appears scarce. After providing an intuitive and heuristic linkage between general economic uncertainty and corruption, this article uses a large cross-country data set to augment a fairly standard model with simple proxies for uncertainty and to investigate how economic uncertainty might affect the prevalence of corruption. In addition, a quantile-regression framework is used to judge how the strength of various covariates may differ with the level of corruption. Seven main points emerge from the estimates. First, economic uncertainty is associated positively with corruption, and the relation seems to be robust across measures of uncertainty and corruption. Second, quantile-regression estimates indicate considerable parametric heterogeneity across the distribution of corruption. Third, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has the expected corruption-mitigating role. Fourth, increased political rights and civil liberties also appear to lower corruption. Fifth, greater government consumption is associated with lower corruption. Sixth, while the hyperinflation dummy lacks significance in most OLS regressions, its significance varies across the distribution of corruption. Seventh, neither police force nor government subsidies shows significance, but transition economies have more corruption.     

Non‐linear finance–growth nexus

This paper revisits the question of whether the finance–growth nexus varies with the stages of economic development. Using a novel threshold regression with the instrumental variables approach proposed by Caner and Hansen (2004) to the dataset used in Levine et al. (2000) we detect overwhelming evidence in support of a positive linkage between financial development and economic growth, and this positive effect is larger in the low‐income countries than in the high‐income ones. The data also reveal that financial development tends to have stronger impacts on capital accumulation and productivity growth in the low‐income countries than in the high‐income ones. The findings are robust to alternative financial development measures and conditioning information sets.     

我国产业关联外溢的实证研究——基于交通设备制造业的数据

经济系统中各个产业之间存在着关联,而一国各个产业之间的关联,部分外溢为国内产业与国外产业之间的关联,即存在着产业关联外溢的问题。本文基于中国交通设备制造业的数据,分析2002-2010年该产业在投入产出表中的相关变化,测算该产业及其产业关联外溢对中国经济增长的效应;并进一步考察了产业关联外溢与国内增加值之间的动态联系。最后,探讨了产业关联外溢问题对产业体系内生形成的启示。     

Spillovers through backward linkages from multinationals: Measurement matters!

We argue that the measures of backward linkages used in recent papers on spillovers from multinational companies are potentially problematic, as they depend on a number of restrictive assumptions, namely that (i) multinationals use domestically produced inputs in the same proportion as imported inputs, (ii) multinationals have the same input sourcing behaviour as domestic firms, irrespective of their country of origin, and (iii) the demand for locally produced inputs by multinationals is proportional to their share of locally produced output. We discuss why these assumptions are likely to be violated in practice, and provide alternative measures that overcome these drawbacks. Our results, using plant level data for Ireland, clearly show that the choice of backward linkage measure and thus, the assumptions behind it, matters greatly in order to draw possible conclusions regarding the existence of foreign direct investment (FDI)-related spillovers. Using the standard measure employed in the literature we fail to find robust evidence for spillovers through backward linkages. However, when we use alternative measures of backward linkages that relax assumptions (i)–(iii), we find robust evidence for positive FDI backward spillover effects.     

Portfolio choice of financial investors and European business cycle convergence: a panel analysis for EU countries

We investigate the linkage between business cycle convergence and financial portfolio choice for a panel of 18 EU countries. We construct an index of similarity of financial portfolios which we then put into context with the view that “the financial world” has an impact on business cycles and contributes to business cycle convergence via the consumption-wealth linkage. The model which guides our analysis is the International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM). Portfolios of the 18 EU countries investigated by us turn out to become more similar over time. According to our fixed effects GMM TSLS estimations, similar portfolios contribute to a convergence of business cycles—via a convergence of consumption cycles. This turns out to be especially true for country-pairs that include euro area non-member countries and, thus, have quite different income and wealth structures.     

FDI产业关联测度假定及其对FDI溢出效应研究结果的影响

首先分析了现有文献中在测算FDI产业关联指标时的假定(国内资本的直接消耗系数等于FDI的直接消耗系数)与我国现实的相符程度,然后利用相关统计资料推导出适当放宽该假定后测算FDI产业关联的方法,最后利用2003—2010年我国制造业行业的数据,检验了放宽该假定是否显著影响我国FDI产业关联指标的测算结果及FDI垂直溢出效应的研究结论。结果显示:放宽该假定对我国FDI产业关联指标的测算结果和FDI垂直溢出效应的研究结论均有显著影响。据此指出:在研究相关FDI产业关联问题时,适当放宽该假定能得到更可靠的研究结论。     

Corruption in a model of vertical linkage between formal and informal credit sources and credit subsidy policy

The present note develops a model of vertical linkage between the formal and informal credit markets highlighting the presence of corruption in the distribution of formal credit. The existing dominant moneylender, the bank official and the new moneylenders move sequentially. The existing moneylender acts as a Stackelberg leader and unilaterally decides on the informal interest rate. We show that there may arise a case where an increase in the supply of formal credit results in an increase in the informal interest rate under reasonable parametric restrictions. This shows that apart from (i) asymmetric information on the part of informal sector lenders (Bose, 1998), (ii) an increase in the probability of default of all informal sector lenders (Hoff and Stiglitz 1997), and the (iii) possibility of informal lenders to collude (Floro and Ray 1997), the presence of corruption in the distribution of formal credit might be another factor responsible for the policy of vertical linkage to break down.     

FDI后向关联对我国本土企业创新能力的影响

本文对2001—2007年我国36个工业行业FDI后向关联对本土企业创新能力的影响效果进行了检验。研究结果表明,FDI对本土企业创新能力具有后向关联溢出效应,通过进一步修正模型,发现FDI对本土企业创新能力的后向关联创新溢出效应呈非线性。     

试析欧共体贸易保护工具与WTO体制的“对接”——以TBR为例

贸易壁垒条例（TBR）是欧共体贸易保护法中首要的旨在保护欧共体在第三国贸易利益的进攻性法律手段。欧共体企业或产业协会依据TBR相关规定可向委员会提供有关第三国贸易保护与市场进入壁垒方面的信息,而委员会在权衡“共同体利益”后可决定是否向WTO提起争端解决程序,由此TBR在某种程度上与WTO体制实现了“对接”。在全球金融危机的负面影响仍未完全消退、多哈回合谈判仍陷于僵局的背景下,我国应密切跟踪国外贸易保护主义的发展趋势,切实发挥贸易预警和贸易调查制度的作用并完善相关制度建设,以便积极应对国际贸易摩擦和争端。     

产业地域联动的测度方法及其应用探讨

产业地域联动对于优化区域产业结构、提升区域经济竞争力至关重要.文章在阐述产业地域联动内涵的基础上,对其测度方法进行了讨论,并以苏北、苏中、苏南为代表,定量分析了近年来三大区域产业联动的实际状况,据此提出了加快产业地域联动促进江苏区域经济发展的对策建议.     

高管团队垂直对特征与企业创新研究

以我国A股上市公司为研究样本,从管理者背景特征视角,考察了高管团队垂直对这一结构特征对企业创新的影响。研究结果表明：高管团队性别垂直对特征对企业创新的影响不显著;高管团队年龄垂直对特征与发明专利、实用新型专利、专利总额以及创新投入均呈显著负相关关系;高管团队学历垂直对正向影响外观设计专利、专利总额以及创新投入;高管团队任期垂直对未对企业创新产出产生显著影响,但对创新投入产生了显著负向影响。区分产权性质后,上述关系在国有与非国有公司间存在显著差异。