Clusters as a driving engine for FDI

This paper develops a model that highlights the importance of clusters for attracting foreign direct investment. It shows from a game theoretical perspective how the combination of setting up a cluster and implementing policy reforms will be a key engine for attracting FDI. Based on agglomeration externalities, the paper shows that the very emergence of clusters can make investment so profitable that investors can even afford to tolerate more policy-induced distortions than otherwise. With perfect information, it shows the existence of multiple equilibria, in which some countries attract FDI while others do not. An extension to the context of imperfect information refines the analysis to a unique equilibrium, in which some investors respond to reforms, while others do not. The paper presents case studies to support the findings.     

Outsourcing and structural change. Application to a set of OECD countries

The examination in this paper aims to bridge outsourcing and structural change analyses in order to obtain more accurate insights into the extent of outsourcing and to extract more reliable policy recommendations for dealing with its effects. We do this by applying a ‘battery’ of outsourcing measurements to a group of OECD countries from 1980 to the mid 1990s. Expected results (e.g. the idiosyncratic outsourcing patterns of the UK) are confirmed on a more systematic and comparable basis, while original results (e.g. the low integration of business services in manufacturing in the former socialist economies) are based on the exploitation of new data.     

Domestic demand and global production in the Eurozone: A multi-regional input-output assessment of the global crisis

This paper studies the effects of domestic and foreign demand impulses in euro area economies following the Great Recession of 2008–2009 and the Eurozone crisis of 2011–2012. Using a global Input–Output framework we apply a set of metrics to assess spillover effects of international trade in intermediates triggered by the dynamics of final demand. Our findings suggest that while cross-country trade spillovers have played a crucial role during the Great Recession, they have had a moderate impact when compared with the role of domestic sources of final demand during the Eurozone crisis. Hence, a strategy of coordinated fiscal austerity cannot be sustained by empirical evidence.     

Intersectoral wage linkages: the case of Sweden

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition lead wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. Granger causality tests are then carried out in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role for the internationally exposed manufacturing sector.      

Commodity price cycles and heterogeneous speculators: a STAR–GARCH model

We propose an empirical commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators. While the power of trend-extrapolating chartists is constant over time, the symmetric impact of stabilizing fundamentalists adjusts endogenously according to market circumstances: Using monthly data for various commodities such as cotton, sugar or zinc, our STAR–GARCH model indicates that their influence positively depends on the distance between the commodity price and its long-run equilibrium value. Fundamentalists seem to become more and more convinced that mean reversion will set in as the mispricing enlarges. Commodity price cycles may thus emerge due to the nonlinear interplay between different trader types. The paper represents the authors’ personal opinion and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.     

Innovation and ICT in service firms: towards a multidimensional approach for impact assessment

This article focuses on the multimodal character of innovation in services firms as the analytical framework by which to assess the role of different sources and agents, ICT in particular, in enabling various impacts of innovation. The peculiarities of service innovation require a wider approach than that observed for goods innovation, which is less focused on non-technological aspects. An ad hoc survey was carried out in the region of Madrid to test a microeconometric and multidimensional approach at the firm level. Specific impacts of innovation are examined by carrying out an ordered probit model with sample selection. Results indicate a certain correspondence between the multidimensional nature of service innovation and a preliminary impact assessment. The paper notes that ICT and clients–providers interactions are both important, acting to facilitate different types of service innovation.