可占有性战略、技术柔性与主导设计形成:比较案例研究

基于企业层面和技术层面双重视角，以激光光盘行业BD、HD DVD和移动操作系统Android、iOS的标准竞争作为比较案例，考察了技术发起者可占有性战略如何影响主导设计形成。研究发现：①技术发起者对技术标准采取更加开放的战略，一方面有助于吸引更多组件生产商，扩大标准联盟规模并提高标准联盟多元性，另一方面，技术发起者鼓励组件生产商参与技术标准开发与商业化，有助于改进技术标准，而技术标准性能改善将进一步吸引更多组件生产商。标准联盟规模与标准联盟多元性之间的自我强化效应最终促进主导设计形成;②技术柔性不仅受到可占有性战略的影响，也受到技术发起者在标准开发过程中所确立的技术规范内在特征的影响。柔性程度较高的技术标准往往能够得到更多改进，从而有助于弥补特定技术标准存在的初始设计缺陷。     

基于领先市场视角的战略性新兴产业发展路径

分析了战略性新兴产业的内涵和关键成功因素,探讨了领先市场对战略性新兴产业竞争优势的影响。根据产业技术能力和领先市场潜力的不同,归纳了战略性新兴产业发展的四类路径。最后提出了在领先市场视角下促进战略性新兴产业发展的政策措施。研究认为,加快培育领先市场角色、通过技术与市场的互动形成主导设计、促进创新的全球扩散,有助于一个国家或地区的战略性新兴产业在国际竞争中掌握战略主动权。     

Options in technology investment games: The real world TFT-LCD industry case

The Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) industry has demonstrated that the investment of huge amounts of capital in new plants is a key factor for success. Decisions about investing in the latest generation of plant involve billions of dollars and a great deal of uncertainty. Moreover, the industry shows distinct oligopolistic characteristics, so the first mover's reactions must be considered when making capital decisions in such competitive environments. The traditional net present value (NPV) rule is a ‘now-or-never’ concept that fails to capture the need for managerial flexibility, which is especially important when investments are irreversible and involve a great deal of uncertainty. In this paper, we use a combination of real options and game theory to analyze the investment strategies of a case company in the TFT-LCD industry. The results show that real options reveal the value of flexibility, which NPV fails to consider. In addition, we apply game theory analysis to different investment strategies to demonstrate the decision-making processes used by competing companies.     

Optimal design of experiments to identify latent behavioral types

Bayesian optimal experiments that maximize the information gained from collected data are critical to efficiently identify behavioral models. We extend a seminal method for designing Bayesian optimal experiments by introducing two computational improvements that make the procedure tractable: (1) a search algorithm from artificial intelligence that efficiently explores the space of possible design parameters, and (2) a sampling procedure which evaluates each design parameter combination more efficiently. We apply our procedure to a game of imperfect information to evaluate and quantify the computational improvements. We then collect data across five different experimental designs to compare the ability of the optimal experimental design to discriminate among competing behavioral models against the experimental designs chosen by a “wisdom of experts” prediction experiment. We find that data from the experiment suggested by the optimal design approach requires significantly less data to distinguish behavioral models (i.e., test hypotheses) than data from the experiment suggested by experts. Substantively, we find that reinforcement learning best explains human decision-making in the imperfect information game and that behavior is not adequately described by the Bayesian Nash equilibrium. Our procedure is general and computationally efficient and can be applied to dynamically optimize online experiments.

     

案例研究方法及其在管理学领域的应用

案例研究是社会科学领域中一种重要的定性研究方法，在文献荟萃分析的基础上对案例研究方法论的内涵与特征、案例研究应用条件、研究设计等问题进行探讨，旨在提高案例研究方法的规范化和科学化水平。以国内管理领域为例，将单案例与多案例研究进行比较分析，归纳出不同案例数量下的案例研究操作方法，供研究者借鉴参考。     

多目标模糊优选理论在深基坑工程方案优选中的应用

基坑方案的设计直接影响着基坑工程的投资规模、生产成本和经济效益的高低，也影响着施工管理方案的制定，其优化设计更是深基坑工程的重要环节。基坑设计方案受许多因素的影响，因而也需要从多个角度去评价方案的优劣。基坑设计方案的优化实质上是实现多重目标的最优，必须运用基于多重目标的模糊综合评价法去评价一个方案的好坏，即用模糊数学对受到多种因素制约的事物或对象做出一个总体的评价。本文将以武汉创世纪广场基坑工程为例，应用多目标模糊优选理论，研究深基坑工程方案的优选。     

Pricing and capacity provision in electricity markets: an experimental study

The creation of adequate investment incentives has been of great concern in the restructuring of the electricity sector. However, to achieve this, regulators have applied different market designs across countries and regions. In this paper we employ laboratory methods to explore the relationship between market design, capacity provision and pricing in electricity markets. Subjects act as firms, choosing their generation capacity and competing in uniform price auction markets. We compare three regulatory designs: (1) a baseline price cap system that restricts scarcity rents, (2) a price spike regime that effectively lifts these restrictions, and (3) a capacity market that directly rewards the provision of capacity. Restricting price spikes leads to underinvestment. In line with the regulatory intention both alternative designs lead to sufficient investment albeit at the cost of higher energy prices during peak periods and substantial capacity payments in the capacity market regime. To some extent these results confirm theoretical expectations. However, we also find lower than predicted spot market prices as sellers compete relatively intensely in capacities and prices, and the capacity markets are less competitive than predicted.     

New technology and the economic organization of the clothing industry

The economic organization of an industry is ultimately determined by the cost functions of its component firms. The costs that matter for the competitive state of an industry are not just long-run variable costs but also the costs of entry to and exit from the industry, and the joint costs of different products that the firms in the industry produce. In the clothing industry the costs of creating and implementing new designs is a further important factor affecting competition between firms. Since costs are largely determined by technology, we expect repercussions on the organization of the industry when technology changes. Application of the new information technologies in the clothing industry will encourag agglomerations by growth and by merger, with larger firms producing a wider range of products and introducing new products faster than hitherto. Trends in the geographic organization of production will also be reversed.     

基于基础-企业-市场模型的寿光蔬菜产业集群资源因素分析

农业产业集群是现代农业发展的重要方向,已经成为提高农业竞争力、增强农业发展优势的重要途径。文章以寿光蔬菜产业集群为例,从基础-企业-市场(GEM)模型的6个因素来分析农业产业集群的形成和竞争优势,探寻农业产业集群发展的规律,进而提高其竞争力,以利于农业产业集群的健康发展。     

INTEGER PRICING AND BERTRAND-EDGEWORTH OLIGOPOLY WITH STRICTLY CONVEX COSTS: IS IT WORTH MORE THAN A PENNY?

In this paper we analyse the implications of integer pricing for Bertrand Edgeworth oligopoly with strictly convex costs. When price is a continuous variable, there is a generic non-existence of pure-strategy equilibrium. In the case of integer pricing, this is not so. We characterize a set of possible single price equilibria around the competitive price, which if non-empty will constitute the set of single price equilibria if the industry is large enough. Furthermore, we provide an example in which the highest equilibrium price can be arbitrarily far from the competitive price.     

Multi-dimensional struggles in the greening of industry: A dialectic issue lifecycle model and case study

This paper aims to make two conceptual contributions to the greening of industry literature. Firstly, we propose that the greening process can be conceptualized as an issue lifecycle dynamics with multi-dimensional struggles between ‘greening’ pressures and industry response strategies. To capture the endogenous dynamics, we develop a Dialectic Issue LifeCycle model with five phases, which conceptualize how these struggles play out over time. Secondly, we propose that issue lifecycle dynamics are also influenced by (external) alignments with contextual field-level developments. This proposition accommodates the notion that industries not only face ‘green’ issues but also other relevant pressures. We apply the model to a historical case study: air pollution problems and responses from American automakers (1943–1985). The case study presents a good match with the first three phases of the model, but shows deviations in the fourth and fifth phase, which are due to: a) decreasing pressure from public opinion; b) limited spillovers from air pollution to consumer demand; c) rise of competing issues; and d) strong resistance from the car industry. The findings underline that the greening of industry cannot be fully understood by looking only at the focal issue (e.g. air pollution). Broader developments in industry and external contexts also need to be taken into account.     

Competing Industrial Standards and the Impact of Trade Liberalization

The main purpose of this study is to illustrate, with simple trade theory, the relationship between competing industrial standards and trade liberalization. We assume that there are two competing industrial standards in an international context, each of which applies to a group of differentiated products. A product can be used only in combination with other products based on the same industrial standard. We examine the impact of trade liberalization (i.e., a decline in trade costs) on consumers’ choice of a standard. It will be shown that the degree of indirect network effects, captured with substitution between differentiated products, plays an important role as a determinant of the impact of trade liberalization.     

Finding partners for complex system innovations through a trans-sectoral ‘matchmaking platform’

Complex system innovations require the concurrent implementation of trans-sectoral co-innovations. The case of fuel cell vehicle development in Germany may serve as an expedient example for this necessity to develop multiple innovative components within largely disconnected ‘technology islands’. The diagonal cooperation among organisations from formerly non-cooperating industries (i.e. from within those technology islands) that so far have not shared a common knowledge base, however, is hindered by structural information deficits, making it difficult to identify the ‘right’ cooperation partners. Based on the requirements as identified in the case study, we therefore propose a ‘matchmaking platform’ that aims at fostering a trans-sectoral dialogue by providing systematically generated corporate capability profiles of organisations with promising cooperation potential. The matching is grounded on factors derived from resource- and market-based theory.     

Trade and technology transfer in a vertically differentiated industry

This paper provides a model of trade and technology transfer in a vertically differentiated industry. We provide three key results. First, freer trade allows an increase in the size of the import competing sector, a counterintuitive proposition. Second, under reasonable conditions a foreign monopolist producing a relatively higher quality product will transfer technology to the local producer for producing a relatively lower quality product. Third, government can design subsidies to induce technology transfer and improve welfare.      

关于PM2.5的统计学分析

通过计量经济学分析研究使得PM2.5值达到最低的影响因素最优组合方案。以SAS方程拟合与正交试验设计的理论方法为工具,选择PM2.5为研究对象,先用SAS拟合方程,并检验序列相关性、多重共线性以证明所拟合方程的可用性。再用正交试验设计的直观分析法确定因素水平的最优组合方案,通过用正交试验设计的方差分析法讨论因素的显著性,以确定最优组合即让PM2.5的值达到最低。     

中国产业标准崛起机制与途径研究——以WAPI为例

产业标准是中国完善产业体系、维护产业利益、实现产业升级转型的重要工具。本文在标准分类研究基础上,讨论了标准演化的基本过程和决定因素,并以WAPI为例,分析开放条件下中国参与国际产业标准竞争的基本特点和驱动力量。本文认为,产业发展周期长,代价高昂;产业生态复杂,需要重视产业链整体实力;国际标准组织作用凸显;政府管制和扶持方式发生重大转变等四个特点,是我国产业标准崛起必须面对的考验。     

智能化时代基于技术密集度差异的企业设计创新路径

智能化时代进一步拉大了技术密集型行业与传统制造行业之间的产品差异。基于行业技术密集度差异及技术对企业设计创新的不同作用,将企业分为技术密集度较高和较低两种类型,通过梳理企业设计创新方法和作用机制,以企业对设计关注点的挖掘和表现力作为设计能力的变量指标,构建"设计能力-设计绩效-企业竞争力"路径,探讨两类企业设计创新特征。研究发现,在技术密集度较低的企业,产品造型和CMF设计能力对企业竞争力具有显著正向影响,而使用方式与设计师数量负相关;在技术密集度较高的企业,功能与使用方式设计能力正向关系最为显著,设计经费、设计技术和设备支撑也具有一定的正向作用。     

关于促进工业设计产业发展的财税金融政策研究

工业设计产业是生产性服务业的重要组成部分,对于中国工业转型升级,提升企业自主创新能力具有重要的意义。当前,中国发展工业设计产业还存在资金投入不足,引导社会投资、激励企业创新力度不够,多层次资本市场发育不完善等财税金融问题,为促进其发展,在结合中国国情,并对配套财税金融政策的分析的基础上,提出了政府引导工业设计产业健康发展的相关建议。     

Technology,property rights and organizational diversity in the software industry

Why do open- and closed-source productions co-exist? To address this question, the paper studies the viability of distinct systems for software development. The model shows that: (a) for low design costs of modularity, both open- and closed-source productions are viable systems; (b) closed-source production is more likely to be adopted the greater the expected rents on software; and (c) production efficiency is not a necessary condition for the stochastic stability of a system to obtain. These three results can shed light on the emergence of organizational diversity in the software industry. The paper adds to the literature in three ways: first, it considers property rights and technology as endogenous variables in the process of system design; second it argues that in producing software multiple equilibrium designs may exist; and third, it shows that, in because of high rents and low design costs of modularity, production inefficiency can be persistent.     

基于“结构—动力—绩效”视角的战略性新兴产业协同创新——以日本新能源汽车产业为例

多主体协同创新是促进产业发展进步的关键,提出战略性新兴产业协同创新的“结构—动力—绩效”分析框架,在结构上主要对战略性新兴产业协同创新中的高校、核心企业、政府、金融、中介、上游企业、市场及用户等主体进行分析;从新技术驱动力、政府支持力、中介和上游企业支撑力、金融提升力以及市场需求拉力方面,分析战略性新兴产业发展动力因素;从专利占比、产品销售量及市场占有率等因素分析战略性新兴产业绩效。最后,以日本新能源汽车产业为例进行研究,结果表明,“结构—动力—绩效”框架对战略性新兴产业多主体协同创新具有借鉴意义。在此基础上,提出我国战略性新兴产业发展对策和建议,以期为中国战略性新兴产业协同创新发展提供方向。