面对未来中国移动通信业发展的浅思

中国移动通信业发展21年,面对目前的金融危机和网络更新换代,中国移动通信业将何去何从,步步为营的发展未必会个中国移动通信业另一个发展的春天,而在恰当时机寻找市场切入点不失为中国移动通信业的另一种务实的态度。     

产业技术创新实现路径的“黑箱”过程——基于路径依赖视角的分析

基于路径依赖理论分析了产业技术创新从发生、应用到商业化这一过程的"黑箱",寻找产业技术创新发生过程的演化规律。研究结果表明:产业技术创新的演进遵循"创新路径依赖"规律,市场需求和默会性知识是推动产业技术创新实现的动力。     

突破性技术创新:理论综述与研究展望

首先通过溯源和梳理关于突破性技术创新的现有研究文献,从技术能力和商业模式的维度划分创新类型,辨析了不同类型创新的共性与差异,并基于技术变革与商业变革重塑突破性技术创新的概念内涵。然后基于"过程"视角对突破性技术创新的形成机理与演化路径进行梳理和凝练,剖析了突破性技术创新从技术概念设想或创意构想乃至市场实现的价值脉络,明晰了突破性技术创新的高度不确定性、非连续性和非线性的本质。最后分析研究结果,并对未来研究进行展望。     

The impact of bank competition and concentration on industrial growth

This paper studies whether bank competition affects growth of non-banking industries. We find that non-cooperative bank competition and stability promote industrial growth robustly. Bank concentration may also affect growth positively; the latter effect increases for higher levels of competition.     

House price,mortgage premium,and business fluctuations

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of mortgage premium to characterize the relationship between the housing market and business cycle for the U.S. We find that mortgage premium is crucial for the amplification and propagation of the model to match the main properties of U.S. housing market and business cycles. The counterfactual analysis suggests that had the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate in 2003Q1, it would have curbed the housing market boom before the crisis, yet failed to alleviate the precipitous decline in housing market activity after the crisis. Moreover, the pre-emptive monetary policy aimed to contain the housing market boom can effectively lower volatilities of major economic aggregates; however, it also exerts a significantly negative effect on the levels of these economic aggregates. Thus, using monetary policy to stabilize asset price inflation involves a trade-off between the volatility and the level of economic activity.     

Foreign ownership and the credibility of national rating agencies: Evidence from Korea

By analyzing bond price reactions to rating changes in Korea, this study adds a new angle to the existing literature on Global Rating Agencies (GRAs, i.e. Moody’s, S&P’s, Fitch) with higher reputation/independence vs. National Rating Agencies (NRAs) with more in-depth local knowledge. Faced with substantial regulatory burdens, GRAs have chosen to operate indirectly in the Korean domestic market by acquiring local NRAs. In our event study, cumulative abnormal returns following downgrades by a wholly domestically owned NRA tend to dominate those from downgrades by two affiliates of GRAs. This casts doubt on the additional information value of reputation capital acquired through GRA ownership as perceived by emerging markets.     

Debt policy, corporate taxes, and discount rates

This paper applies the standard risk-neutral valuation framework to tax shields generated by dynamic debt policies. We derive a partial differential equation (PDE) for the value of the debt tax shield. For a class of dynamic debt policies that depend on the asset's free cash flows, value, and past performance, we obtain closed-form solutions for the PDE. We also derive the tax-adjusted cost of capital for free cash flows and analyze the conditions under which the weighted average cost of capital is an appropriate discount rate. Finally, we derive closed-form solutions for equity betas, which differ from the formulas that have traditionally been used to lever and unlever equity betas.     

Socio-Technical Dynamics in the Development of Next Generation Mobile Network: Translation Beyond 3G

This paper traces the translation processes associated with the mobilization of resources and industrial agency in the development of a next generation mobile network in Korea. To explain the socio-technical dynamics, the sociology of translation is used. The paper provides a story of a translation of strategy and related activities using Callon's four moments of translation. The story illustrates how, during the translation process, 4G strategies have been formed, shaped, and enhanced.It describes the process of technology adoption and developing stories by highlighting the co-evolving nature, diversity, and interface which constitute the next-generation network environment. It provides insight into the Korean mobile environment by offering a socio-technical analysis of 4G development and how it involves the dynamics of industry, regulation, and technology. The study suggests that the sociology of translation may be a promising explication of technological change and innovation.     

GPS产业的共性技术识别、演进及其启示——基于专利分析

利用1984—2014年美国专利数据库中有关GPS的专利数据,结合专利计量分析的相关理论和方法(以社会网络分析法为主),构建了专利引文网络和专利技术领域共现网络,并对专利技术领域共现网络进行K-核分析,对专利引文网络进行SPLC主路径分析和多重中心度分析。得出GPS产业共性技术发展演化具有如下规律和趋势:共性技术的创新过程具有趋复杂性、层次性和阶段性特征;其扩散过程具有独特的网络效应,强于一般专有技术;GPS产业技术路径的形成有赖于共性技术的发展与创新。最后,结合关于共性技术的其他理论和研究,总结了共性技术发展的一般性结论及其启示。     

Liquidity, infinite horizons and macroeconomic fluctuations

This paper develops a computable dynamic general equilibrium model in which corporate demand for liquidity is endogenously determined. In the model, liquidity demand is motivated by moral hazard, as in Holmström and Tirole (J. Politic. Econom. 106 (1998) 1). As a result of incorporating agency cost and endogenously determined liquidity demand, the model can replicate an empirical business cycle fact, the hump-shaped dynamic response of output, which is seldom observed in standard RBC dynamics. Further, in the model the corporate demand for liquidity from a financial intermediary (credit line, for instance) is pro-cyclical, while the degree of liquidity dependence (defined as liquidity demand divided by corporate investment) is counter-cyclical. These business cycle patterns are consistent with a stylized fact empirically verified in the lending view literature.     

Frequency domain analysis of foreign exchange order flows

Using a unique data set from the Bank of Canada, this paper presents the frequency domain analysis of a causal relationship between the Canada/US dollar exchange rate movements and currency order flows. The evidence shows that the existence as well as the direction of causality depends on the customer type, frequency, and time period.     

TD-SCDMA的组网优势

本文阐述了TD-SCDMA组网特点,即TD-SCDMA具有无线资源丰富、覆盖半径基本相同、呼吸效应不明显等优点,相比WCDMA和CDMA2000有更大的优势.     

Global banking and international business cycles

This paper incorporates a global bank into a two-country business cycle model. The bank collects deposits from households and makes loans to entrepreneurs, in both countries. It has to finance a fraction of loans using equity. We investigate how such a bank capital requirement affects the international transmission of productivity and loan default shocks. Three findings emerge. First, the bank's capital requirement has little effect on the international transmission of productivity shocks. Second, the contribution of loan default shocks to business cycle fluctuations is negligible under normal economic conditions. Third, an exceptionally large loan loss originating in one country induces a sizeable and simultaneous decline in economic activity in both countries. This is particularly noteworthy, as the 2007–09 global financial crisis was characterized by large credit losses in the US and a simultaneous sharp output reduction in the US and the Euro Area. Our results thus suggest that global banks may have played an important role in the international transmission of the crisis.     

第四代技术展望

随着技术与经济全球化，技术预测的合理性，有效性和可操作性等问题再一次提到议事日程上来。本文提出了一种在广义技术创新框架之下，社会，经济，环境的多层次上，硬技术与软技术并重的第四代技术展望理论。     

Fixed Exchange Rates and Banking Crises: When Does the Former Prevent the Latter?

Because monetary policy is constrained in fixed exchange rate regimes, banks should expect fewer money‐financed bailouts and therefore manage their risks more carefully when exchange rates are fixed than when they are flexible. It follows that we should observe fewer banking crises in countries with formal currency pegs. The 1990s however are littered with occurrences of banking crises in countries with fixed exchange rates. This paper asks whether banks in those countries could have adopted excess risk expecting money‐financed bailouts or whether their pegs discouraged such moral hazard‐type risks.     

Persistence of initial debt in the long-term employment dynamics of new firms

Abstract.  This paper investigates whether a firm's future growth is independent of its initial debt structure. The non-parametric test consists of determining whether the conditional size distribution for firms surviving through early years of life depends upon debt-to-asset ratio at birth. Initially, I test for initial size dependence in the growth process by applying Pakes and Ericson (1998) procedure. I then test the hypothesis that initial debt-to-asset ratios are irrelevant to growth of ten-year old manufacturing firms. I reject the null of independence, and find evidence of a non-monotonic relationship between age ten conditional size and the initial debt-to-asset ratio.