On the evolution of technological specialization patterns in emerging countries: comparing Asia and Latin America

This paper explores the role of technological opportunity and cumulativeness in the evolution of technological specialization patterns (TSP) in catching-up processes. Concretely, I assume that opportunity induces mobility while cumulativeness leads to diversification and stability. The empirical analysis uses patent data indicators for nine Asian and Latin American countries between 1978 and 2012. The paper shows that, during economic liberalization (although with different timings), emerging countries caught up and redefined the path of technological accumulation for Asian and Latin American countries. With the exception of Hong Kong, all the countries increased their technology share, but they ran in different directions. Asian countries made greater relative efforts in dynamic technologies, while Latin American countries focused on stagnant technologies. In this sense, Asian countries achieved a more successful performance, building new technological bases and taking a technological leap in some of the more dynamic technologies. Meanwhile, Latin American countries left their technological bases unchanged. The paper also shows that, at the beginning of the catching-up cycle, the TSPs were turbulent. Afterwards, cumulativeness in the technological choice induced the diversification and stabilization of the TSPs.     

全球5G发展现状概览

进入到2010年代,全球对5G概念给予了高度关注。基于通信产业界发起的对5G技术的展望,主要国家都启动了5G研发计划。欧盟希望迅速发展5G技术,以维持和加强欧洲企业的领导地位;日本设立了5G研究组;韩国在5G研发机构设立、长远规划、促进战略以及研发投入等方面都有积极表现;美国积极开展5G项目的研发;中国也在全方位布局5G技术的研发工作。目前,5G的技术标准尚未统一,但各个国家对其场景的总体设想是趋同的。未来对5G概念的定义将不同于以往任何一代移动通信系统,它对全球提出了前所未有的技术、运营和管控挑战,在接入技术、频谱管理以及标准化等方面如何积极应对这些挑战,是亟需探索的。     

Emerging market sovereign spreads,global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news

We investigate the impact of global financial conditions, U.S. macroeconomic news and domestic fundamentals on the evolution of EMBI spreads for a panel of 18 emerging market (EM) countries using daily data. To this end, we consider not only the conventional panel cointegration procedures but also the recent common correlated effects method to tackle cross-section dependence that may stem from common global shocks such as contagion. The results suggest that the long-run evolution of EMBI spreads depends on global financial conditions, crises contagion and domestic fundamentals proxied by sovereign ratings. The results from panel equilibrium correction models suggest that EMBI spreads respond substantially also to U.S. macroeconomic news and changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rates. The magnitude and the sign of the effect of the U.S. news, however, crucially depend on the state of the U.S. economy, such as the presence of inflation dominance.     

金融结构、技术进步与产业结构升级*——基于跨国数据的经验验证

本文分析了金融结构通过技术进步对产业结构产生的不同作用机理,并通过具有代表性的30个包含发达国家与发展中国家的数据,检验了金融结构对产业结构的影响效果。实证结果表明,在考虑技术转移的情况下,适宜的金融结构可通过技术进步对产业结构升级有较显著的正向作用,而金融发展水平对产业结构升级的影响效果并不显著为正。       

Democracy,regulation and competition in emerging banking systems

This paper develops a political economy framework to analyse the relations among democracy, financial regulation and banking competition in the emerging banking systems of Central and Eastern Europe. We develop extensive new yearly non-structural indices of bank competition instead of concentration indices as in the previous literature that show its evolution over time with the level of democracy. In addition, we directly test for linkages between democracy, financial regulation and banking competition. Using an unbalanced panel data set over the period 1994–2016 for 617 banks, we show that more democratic countries with better regulatory framework lead to the enhancement of competition. We also find significant support for the core hypothesis that financial regulatory framework in a “partially” democratic environment is inadequate. Given that financial regulatory framework in a “partially” democratic environment can be inadequate we find a U-shaped relation in the sense that there is a threshold level of democracy beyond which banking systems in those countries are more competitive.     

A metafrontier approach for measuring Malmquist productivity index

This paper presents an alternative framework for the decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index by using the concept of a metafrontier. The approach employed allows the calculation of technical efficiency changes, as well as technical changes, for economic agents operating under different technologies. It also enables the computation of the technological gap and its changes for economic agents operating under different technologies. This framework is applied to the analysis of panel data on 58 countries over a period of 31 years from 1970 to 2000. The empirical results show that Asian countries have attempted to move towards the frontier technology and that European countries have taken the lead in the world frontier technology.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

Outward foreign direct investment and domestic innovation performance: evidence from China

The existing literature has explored the existence of reverse technology spillover through outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), which means domestic firms improve their technological innovation and productivity due to overseas investment activities. This paper aims to examine how the host country affects reverse technology spillover from OFDI. The findings show domestic innovation performance (DIP) is positively related to OFDI in developed countries while it is negatively related to OFDI in transitional and emerging markets. It is also found that financial development and human capital weaken the positive relationship between OFDI in developed countries and DIP and also weaken the negative relationship between OFDI in transitional and emerging markets and DIP. These results are further confirmed through robustness checks.     

Productivity growth and catching up: a technology gap explanation

This paper seeks to explain why some countries have managed to catch up in terms of labor productivity over the period 1993–2007 in 76 countries. By integrating the technology gap research within the standard growth-accounting approach, we introduce a methodology which allows us to split total factor productivity (TFP) change into two components: conditional technical inefficiency and the magnitude of the technology gap. We find that labor productivity growth depends both on investment in fixed capital and TFP. Fast emerging economies exhibit patterns of growth based in particular on the reduction of the technology gap, confirming the role of investment in technological capabilities to spur productivity catch-up. Looking at change in the distribution of labor productivity, emerging countries managed to shift from low productivity toward a medium level of productivity thanks to technology accumulation. Less advanced countries cannot rely only on technology diffusion and learning by doing, policies for technological capabilities accumulation are necessary.     

专利家族视角下技术演化路径依赖研究——以光刻技术为例

以专利家族为研究视角,阐述技术路径动态演化过程中的路径依赖。专利家族自引会对技术主路径造成干扰,通过对主路径进行调整,提出一种修正技术主路径的新思路。研究发现：光刻技术在“投影对准和曝光系统—浸没式投影物镜—浸没式光刻材料—光刻胶”4个阶段经历了“路径消解—路径产生与路径依赖—路径消解与突破”的动态演化过程。在此过程中,以荷兰阿斯麦、德国蔡司和日本东京电子为代表的专利家族发挥重要作用。其中,以阿斯麦为核心的利益联盟垄断核心技术,强化光刻技术发展的路径依赖作用,占据市场领先地位。研究结论有助于深化对路径依赖理论的认知,通过揭示光刻技术路径演化过程及企业演化格局,为后发国家突破技术路径依赖提供实践启示。     

Regional foreign banks and financial inclusion: Evidence from Africa

Regional foreign banks expanded quickly over the past decade in developing and emerging countries and have a growing influence in banking systems. We question whether the development of African regional foreign banks, also called Pan-African banks, influences financial inclusion of firms and households. To this end, we combine the World Bank Global Findex database and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys with a hand-collected database on the presence of regional foreign banks. We find that Pan-African banks presence increases firms’ access to credit and limited evidence that they favor financial access of the middle class by restoring confidence in banks. We suggest that this impact is related to the adoption of an aggressive strategy aiming at gaining market shares rather than through the exploitation of informational and technological advantages.     

Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment (SPEED): An integrated research framework analyzing energy technology deployment

Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to reduce the risks of climate change requires a major transition in society's energy infrastructure; yet despite a growing sense of urgency, deployment of alternative emerging energy technologies has been slow and uncertain. This paper proposes a systematic, interdisciplinary framework for the integrated analysis of regulatory, legal, political, economic, and social factors that influence energy technology deployment decisions at the state level to enhance awareness of the interconnections and enable improved energy policy and planning and accelerated change in society's energy infrastructure. This framework, Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment, (SPEED), integrates analysis of laws, regulations, institutions and policy actors as well as varying regional perceptions and levels of awareness about the risks and benefits of emerging energy technologies to facilitate improved understanding of the complex interconnected components of state energy systems. While this framework has been developed with U.S. states as a model, the SPEED framework is generalizable to other countries with different sub-national structures. We present three research methods that could be applied within the SPEED framework that could be particularly helpful in understanding the integrated socio-political influences on energy technology deployment: (1) policy review and analysis, (2) media analysis, and (3) focus groups and structured interviews with key stakeholders. By integrating the fields of technology diffusion, environmental policy, comparative analysis of states, and risk perception, future empirical research conducted within this SPEED framework will improve understanding of the interconnected socio-political influences on energy technology deployment to enable energy modelers, policy-makers, energy professionals, state planners and other stakeholders to develop and implement more effective strategies to accelerate the deployment of emerging energy technologies.     

Persistence vs. mobility in industrial and technological specialisations: evidence from 11 Euro area countries

This paper examines the evolution of the patterns of specialisation of 11 Euro area countries in the period 1990–2008, by analysing their comparative and technological advantages. We estimate conditional densities and Markov transition probabilities to examine both the external shape of the distribution of technological and comparative advantages and the intra-distribution dynamics. Our results point out that there is, on average, high persistence of the industrial specialisation patterns of the 11 Euro area countries under scrutiny, confirming a lock-in effect, especially in the case of Italy. Our results for technological specialisation reveal high mobility of technological advantages over the same period, especially for Spain.     

On the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate on domestic investment in G7 countries

Two studies have assessed the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic investment. One included six emerging countries and the other one, 18 African nations. Both revealed that using nonlinear models to assess the asymmetric effects yield a more significant outcome compared to symmetric and linear models. We add to this small literature by showing the same using quarterly data from each of the G7 countries. Indeed, nonlinear models produced relatively more short-run and long-run effects of changes in the real effective exchange rate on domestic investment, though in an asymmetric manner.     

新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征

新兴技术这柄“双刃剑”虽然给国家带来新发展动能，但也同时引发诸多社会风险，如何化解新兴技术社会风险成为新兴技术治理面临的难题。前瞻性治理研究为新兴技术社会风险化解提供了一些思考，但是相关研究较为分散和模糊，相关经验难以奏效。运用文本分析法和层次分析法，聚焦治理主体、过程和结果3个要素，提炼新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征，并在中国情境下检验其适用性。结果表明，公众参与结果纳入既定政策议程、否决权、新兴技术公众参与法律法规等前瞻性特征得到专家一致认同，认为它们是新兴技术社会风险化解的必要条件。研究结论对提高新兴技术社会风险治理绩效具有一定理论启示。     

Are there bubbles in exchange rates? Some new evidence from G10 and emerging market economies

The existence, or otherwise, of bubbles has become a topical issue in economics and finance, particularly following the Global Financial Crisis. Using the generalized sup ADF (GSADF), unit root tests of Phillips et al. (2015a, PSY) we investigate evidence for exchange rate bubbles in some G10, Asian and BRICS countries from Mar.1991-Dec.2014. We conclude that the US$-Mexican Peso crisis of 1994–95 was a bubble. Of particular interest to financial market trading, is that newly emerging countries, with relatively shallow financial markets, may be more likely to exhibit bubbly behavior in foreign exchange markets than more mature G10 countries.     

A tale of two countries: Directed technical change,trade and migratory movements

We propose a North-South model that reconciles trade and production strategies, flows of innovators and the path of economic divergence, or convergence, between countries. We explain the mechanisms behind these forces and show how the technological and economic gaps can be reversed if southern countries stop imitating northern goods and, instead, produce complementary goods. Such a strategy of complementarity on production yields the necessary incentives to innovators to engage in research in southern countries, which enhances the catching-up process between countries. It is also shown that migratory movements of unskilled labor between countries are also relevant to understand the dangers and benefits of different trade strategies for economic growth. This paper suggests a positive (negative) correlation between technological innovation in the North (South) and the level of substitutability in production, while under complementarity, technological innovation catches up in the South, therefore fostering the economic catching up process. A positive correlation between inflows of skilled and unskilled labor and substitutability of production between countries is also verified.     

Context matters: How existing sectors and competing technologies affect the prospects of the Swiss Bio-SNG innovation system

Emerging technological fields are affected by developments in their broader context. This article proposes a differentiation of context structures as a crucial step in the analysis of technological innovation systems. A thorough context analysis, so the argument, is essential for understanding the pace and direction of technology development and the prospects of an emerging technological innovation system. Empirical insights are provided for Bio-SNG, a technology in an early stage of development. The article discusses the conditions under which actors from different sectors (forestry, wood industry, and energy supply) may play a role in the emerging field. It is shown that Bio-SNG is likely to become a victim of the recent boom in wood-to-energy technologies that has favored investments in more mature but technologically inferior alternatives. The case provides lessons for policy making as it highlights how effective support schemes might foster a lock-in into technologies that are readily available.     

A technology opportunities analysis model: applied to dye-sensitised solar cells for China

Technology opportunities analysis (TOA) can support policy-makers or managers in making strategic technical decisions so as to enhance their technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. This paper presents a multi-level framework to support and systematically identify technological opportunities. Patent data as a key component of technology innovation are used to enable TOA within the framework in the present research. At the research and development (R&D) level, we anticipate the directions of technology development based on technology morphology. Countries’ development emphases can also be investigated in order to help identify their R&D strengths and weaknesses and to seek promising development pathways. At the level of competition, we devise the assignee-technology analysis to obtain insight into competitive participants’ technical emphases and intents. It is also used to explore possible collaboration opportunities among them. At the market level, we apply patent family analysis to understand countries’ target markets and to assess prospects for the commercialisation of their technology. We pursue TOA to explore China's opportunities and challenges in dye-sensitised solar cells. The empirical case analysis supports the effectiveness of the TOA model. We believe it can be adapted well to fit other emerging technologies.     

Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.