Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states

In this paper, we test for Wagner's law for 15 Indian states. We consider nine panels of states based on geography and level of economic development. Using panel unit-root, panel-cointegration, and panel-Granger causality analysis, we unravel strong evidence of Wagner's law. However, we find that the Wagner's law relationship is consumption rather than capital expenditure driven. This is a fresh revelation and our results are robust to different model specifications.     

Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner's Law in OECD Countries

Abstract. The paper proposes a panel cointegration analysis of the joint development of government expenditure and economic growth in 23 Organization Economic Cooperation and Development countries. The empirical evidence provides indication of a structural positive correlation between public spending and per‐capita gross domestic product (GDP), which is consistent with the so‐called Wagner's law. A long‐run elasticity larger than 1 suggests a more than proportional increase of government expenditure with respect to economic activity. In addition, according to the spirit of the law, we found that the correlation is usually higher in countries with lower per‐capita GDP, suggesting that the catching‐up period is characterized by a stronger development of government activities with respect to economies in a more advanced state of development.     

Okun’s law revisited: a threshold in regression quantiles approach

This article proposes, for the first time, a threshold in regression quantiles approach to the analysis of Okun’s law. By applying to US data over the 1948Q1–2016Q4 period, we have three major findings. First, a single threshold is detected for both multiple and individual quantiles cases. However, the effect of threshold nonlinearity is only present in the middle to upper quantiles of the conditional unemployment distribution in the individual quantiles case. Second, the first-order autoregressive coefficients of unemployment are significantly larger in the lower-growth regime, indicating that shocks to unemployment appear to be more persistent during recessions. Finally, the Okun’s coefficients are all negative across the recessionary and expansionary regimes, confirming the validity of Okun’s law. Moreover, the Okun’s coefficients are smaller (more negative) in the lower-growth regime, suggesting that the effect of differenced output on differenced unemployment is asymmetric, and is more pronounced in recessions.     

Challenges of population aging in China

Utilizing the most recent census and survey data as well as the new ProFamy method, this paper presents and analyzes the trends of challenges of population aging and elderly living arrangements in China in the first half of twenty-first century. It discusses the serious challenges and related policy recommendations concerning the old-age insurance program in rural China.     

The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in the regions of Italy

Following León‐Ledesma and Thirlwall (2002a León‐Ledesma, M.A. and Thirlwall, A.P. 2002a. The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 26: 441–59. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), this paper examines the hypothesis that the natural rate of growth of the Italian regions is endogenous to and positively affected by the actual growth rate. Relying on fixed‐effects and SUR estimation techniques and using annual data for the 20 Italian regions over the period 1977–2003, we find strong support for the endogeneity hypothesis suggesting that faster actual growth raises the natural rate of growth of the average Italian region by about 3–3.7 percentage points. Furthermore, in line with recent findings in the literature, our analysis provides evidence of asymmetries in Okun’s Law. In particular, the asymmetric Okun coefficient in the high‐growth regime turns out to be positive in several cases, implying the unemployment rate may become pro‐cyclical when actual growth rises above a certain threshold rate.     

A sectoral approach to Okun’s Law

The study adds to the existing literature on the relationship between output and unemployment by using a sectoral specification of Okun’s Law to capture the differential sensitivity of the unemployment rate to output developments in the services and manufacturing sectors. Using quarterly data for the period between 2000 and 2012, we show that Malta’s unemployment rate has been more sensitive to output developments in the services sector than to those in the manufacturing sector. We use different equation specifications and the youth unemployment rate to show that the impact resulting from developments in the manufacturing sector occurs mainly via lay-offs while developments in the services sector affect the unemployment rate via the hiring of new entrants into the labour market.     

Do young women trade jobs for marriage? A skeptical view

This paper takes a skeptical view of the theory that the slight decline in young women's labor-force participation from 1985 to 1990 can be explained by the fact that there are fewer women now in their early twenties than there are men in their late twenties so that women currently have more bargaining power in the marriage market than men do.The paper argues that the assumption behind this theory, that for women marriage and employment are substitutes, is outmoded. It also contends that the theory leaves out the importance of full-time schooling as an activity alternative to employment and that in fact the increase in full-time schooling among young women has been much greater than the slight decrease in their labor-force participation.Several questions are raised about the statistical test of the theory and also about the reasons why the Wall Street Journal ran a front-page article on the slight decline in young women's labor-force participation and featured the marriage market theory as an explanation for this purported new trend.     

Say’s Law,Marxian Crisis Theory and the Interconnectedness of the Capitalist Economy

ABSTRACT

Scholars have long debated exactly why Marx felt that general gluts were not just possible, but inevitable. This article argues that Theories of Surplus Value anchored that necessity in the complex interconnectedness that characterizes capitalist production. There, Marx’s criticism of Say’s Law builds on a version of crisis theory that begins with raw material shortages in a leading sector. The disturbance is then transmitted through the many inter-industry linkages in the capitalist economy. What starts as a supply-side shock in a leading sector is transformed into a broad crisis of aggregate demand as workers are laid off and businesses fall into insolvency. This article argues that Marx’s later discussion of other types of crises in Capital can be read as consistent with this approach. A severe profit squeeze in a leading sector (whether originating in intermediate good prices, market demand, rising wages or rising use of fixed capital) necessarily turns into a general glut. In this context, Say’s Law becomes an irrelevant theorem concerning an imaginary economy. What Marx sees as fundamentally new under capitalism is not the use of money and the separation of sale and purchase, but massive interconnectedness.     

城市韧性研究的巴斯德范式剖析

进入21世纪以来,城市韧性研究日益兴起,理论累积也达到了一定程度,现如何开展基于生态实践智慧的城市韧性研究,使其从理论探索走向实践研究显得尤为重要。从生态实践智慧的首选研究范式——巴斯德范式的视角出发,通过Web of Science和中国知网两大平台检索城市韧性相关中英文文献,对文献进行研究范式分类统计分析,探讨了城市韧性研究中玻尔范式盛行的现象和原因,并提出了城市韧性巴斯德范式研究的建议。     

Slonimsky's view on Antoine-Augustin Cournot∗

Abstract

In 1878 the Russian Liudvig Zinov'sevich Slonimsky published a lengthy article on the mathematization of economics. To defend the legacy of applying mathematics in the study of economics, he made ample uses of both von Thünen and Cournot's works. The article published in Russian and in the Russian Vestnik Evropy (Journal of Europe) has passed virtually ignored by economists. This notes gives a complete account of Slonimsky's references to Cournot's work.     

Testing for convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient in Europe

Without convergence of macroeconomic parameters representative of the nature of adjustment mechanisms, even a common shock to members of a monetary union can lead to different macroeconomic consequences across the union and, eventually, to the need for more or less co-ordinated specific policies. In this paper, we test for the presence of convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient (OLC) among several alternative groupings of European economies. The empirical strategy adopted is based on the evaluation of the time path of rolling regression estimates of the OLC for European countries. We then use a testing procedure suggested by Evans [Evans P (1996) J Econ Dynam Control 20:1027–1049] to investigate the convergence, or non-convergence, of the OLC in several groups of European countries by examining how the cross-country variance of the OLC evolves over time in these groups. A hypothesis of medium-term convergence of the OLC is rejected for most of the European country groups examined.