The rise of 3D printing and the role of user firms in the U.S.: evidence from patent data

3D printing has been heralded as one of the key technologies for the Fourth Industrial Revolution but empirical analysis is still sparse. This paper provides empirical evidence by proposing a robust approach to identifying 3D printing inventions. Findings indicate the inventive activity has been rapidly growing since 2011 and is mainly led by user firms. The development of 3D printing has taken place in a variety of industrial sectors, not merely a specific sector. This implies 3D printing can be considered as a general purpose technology. Interestingly, the diffusion patterns of 3D printing vary across technological categories. User firms are divided into incumbent and new firms to examine how patent activities vary by the type of firm and time. Incumbent firms exploit 3D printing earlier than new firms do but new firms tend to enter into 3D printing space more than incumbent firms after the technology becomes prevalent.     

Patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis: an empirical study

Patent technology morphological analysis utilises the advantages of both patent information analysis and morphological analysis to provide more detailed information on current and future patent technology. Current patent technology morphological analysis methods are largely reliant on manual expertise in the construction of morphological boxes with few approaches to the evaluation of future morphological configurations. We developed a patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis technique. We defined the basic parameters of the morphological box as the factors in factor analysis, with a patent keywords matrix, and the clusters in clustering analysis with factor scores. Patent citation, year of patent registration, keyword frequency, and contributing factors were used to evaluate future morphological configurations. We used an empirical study of liquid crystal display wide viewing angle patents to validate our method. The Thomson Reuters Derwent Innovation Index was used to collect patent text datasets. Our study indicates that this method is feasible for the implementation of patent technology morphological analysis. Our method provides advantages in terms of cost and time reductions during morphological box construction and more flexible methods for evaluating morphological configurations. We discuss problems and possible development of our method in the last section.     

Nanotechnology: Future military environmental health considerations

Lux Research estimates that more than $8.6 billion will be spent in 2005 on nanotechnology R&D worldwide and that the majority of funds are shifting from basic research to the development of applications. Little is known about the environmental and health risks of manufactured nanomaterials. In 2003 the European Union funded the NANOSAFT project to assess the technology's environmental and health risks. In July 2003 the US Environmental Protection Agency invited proposals to study environmental and health impacts of nanotechnology. The U.S. government has budgeted $39 million in 2006 for studies of environmental, health, and safety impacts of nanotechnology.The military is a major force in nanotechnology R&D; hence, it can play a key role in understanding and managing nanotechnology risks. As a result, the Millennium Project conducted a two-round Delphi to identify and rate important forms of nanotechnology-related environmental pollution and health hazards that could result from any military activities and to suggest military research that might reduce these problems. The full report is available in the CD Chapter 5 attached to the 2005 State of the Future report. An expert panel on these issues was asked its judgments on the full range of nanotechnologies of the present and future—from nanobulk-process nano (simple structures) and top-down nano (low-volume production) to nano-built nano (high-volume, low-cost, complex high-performance components and even whole products).     

Strategic technology editing of the patent stage: lesson from a case of inkjet printer development

Patents are conventionally regarded as representing post-procurement of rights based on results of research and development (R&D). Patents can also be regarded as factors promoting R&D itself. In this study, the author examines the strategic meaning of patents in R&D through analyses of the R&D processes at Canon Inc., which is widely considered to submit patents strategically. The author identified characteristic behaviour related to patent acquisition in the R&D of inkjet printers. Canon constructed a strong patent group precisely by editing patents submitted earlier. Characteristic patent submissions were also identified: they elevated the obtained R&D results to higher concepts as milestones of R&D. These findings are discussed from the viewpoint of the meaning of patents for R&D and the possibility of effective R&D at the patent stage.     

A technology opportunities analysis model: applied to dye-sensitised solar cells for China

Technology opportunities analysis (TOA) can support policy-makers or managers in making strategic technical decisions so as to enhance their technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. This paper presents a multi-level framework to support and systematically identify technological opportunities. Patent data as a key component of technology innovation are used to enable TOA within the framework in the present research. At the research and development (R&D) level, we anticipate the directions of technology development based on technology morphology. Countries’ development emphases can also be investigated in order to help identify their R&D strengths and weaknesses and to seek promising development pathways. At the level of competition, we devise the assignee-technology analysis to obtain insight into competitive participants’ technical emphases and intents. It is also used to explore possible collaboration opportunities among them. At the market level, we apply patent family analysis to understand countries’ target markets and to assess prospects for the commercialisation of their technology. We pursue TOA to explore China's opportunities and challenges in dye-sensitised solar cells. The empirical case analysis supports the effectiveness of the TOA model. We believe it can be adapted well to fit other emerging technologies.     

德国纳米技术发展现状及启示

本文在调研德国纳米技术最新发展现状的基础上,对其研发体系、经费投入、产业化情况进行了总结分析,并对我国纳米技术发展提出了思考建议。     

Stability analysis and efficiency determinants: empirical evidence

Efficiency determinants analysis is a main contemporary component in the productive efficiency literature. Two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) procedure supposed a turning point in the methodology as the significance of a certain exogenous factor can provide policymakers with accurate information for future strategic decisions, but a deeper scrutiny into the importance of each factor remains unsettled. This article provides a novelty theoretical extension and empirical application for the two-stage DEA bootstrap procedure. We define the stability coefficient (SC) whose magnitude reveals the effect of each exogenous factor in the efficiency estimates. We present empirical evidence to examine the hypothesis that the efficiency of the 17 Spanish tourism regions for the average period data 2005–2013 is determined by a group of contextual variables, illustrating how the SCs strengthen knowledge concerning the significance of each potential attractor. The results help us to classify the significant attractors into strong and weak, accordingly enhancing the public or private decision process, and henceforth avoiding the wastefulness of decision-making units spending.     

Pattern of patent-based environmental technology innovation in China

Technology innovation benign to environmental preservation is one of the key strategies to address sustainable development. Understanding the pattern of environmental technology innovation in a country is necessary for making policies and decisions in environment management. Temporal and spatial distribution of environmental patents was analyzed to identify innovation capability of environmental technologies in China. In terms of features the patents were classified into invention, utility model (performance improvement) and design. The patents belonged to the individuals, enterprises and research institutes in terms of ownership. Through analyzing the pattern of environmental patents by features and ownership, it was found that individual-owned patents and utility model patents accounted for the biggest percentage of all the environmental patents applied by the domestic applicants. Eastern provinces had the majority of environmental patents. The cluster analysis showed that invention patents and enterprise-owned patents were concentrated in the eastern provinces. In general, the innovation capability of environmental technologies in the east is strongest among the regions. Though it had been improved in the last two decades, the percentage of invention patents was still small and enterprises did not play the most important role in innovation. Applications of environmental patents increased gradually but had a declining share of all the patents in the last two decades. The innovation capability of environmental technologies in China is still not strong on a global perspective.     

基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测——以液晶显示技术为例

基于TRIZ和产品技术进化理论,建立了产品技术成熟度预测模型,提出以专利数据库为数据源、以技术进化标准曲线图为对标的产品技术成熟度预测方法。以液晶显示技术为例,剖析了该方法在高新技术企业中的具体应用。研究结果表明:液晶显示技术已进入成熟期后期、即将步入退出期,应开发新生代核心技术进行激进创新,使产品技术进化路线移入新一轮S型曲线。     

A hybrid visualisation model for technology roadmapping: bibliometrics,qualitative methodology and empirical study

Technology roadmapping offers a flexible instrument to portray development status in support of technology forecasting and assessment. This paper integrates bibliometrics with qualitative methodologies and visualisation techniques to construct a hybrid model for composing technology roadmaps. The mapping arrays details on the evolution of the technology under study and contributes to understanding the macro-technology development status. We generate a global technology roadmap for electric vehicles to demonstrate the approach in an empirical study.     

Patterns of technology life cycles: stochastic analysis based on patent citations

Patent analysis has been considered as an effective means of estimating phases of a technology life cycle. However, previous studies have not considered the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of a technology’s progression since they were based on deterministic methods, mainly fitting s- or double s-shaped curves to patent application counts. Moreover, previous methods cannot be executed at the individual patent level. We propose a stochastic technology life cycle analysis to trace the phases of a technology’s progression based on patent citations and identify the patterns of technology life cycles at the individual patent level. At the heart of the proposed approach are a hidden Markov model to estimate the probability of a system being at a certain hidden state from observation and cluster analysis to group a set of objects according to their similarities. A case study of patents about laser technology in lithography is presented.     

Nanotechnology innovation system: Understanding hidden dynamics of nanoscience fusion trajectories

Nanoscience and technology has introduced a new dimension to basic sciences and a range of technologies. Researchers from various scientific disciplines are aggressively getting involved in the relevant research as a parallel way to boost nanoscience competitiveness through academic research, and corporations are directing their R&D activities towards the exploration and exploitation of nanotech opportunities. For years, it has been said that innovation is achieved by breaking through the boundaries of existing technologies. This paper has argued how nanotechnology is driven by scientific research and in what way traditional disciplines are fused into this emerging area. We attempt to provide an empirical analysis of the dynamics of nanoscience fusion trajectories, which is typically a focused area in innovation studies. In this paper, we seek to understand the attributes that are likely to enable scientific disciplines to fuse into nanoscience through a combination of quantitative and qualitative search within nanotechnology systems of innovation (NanoSI). An insight of the similarity and disparity of fusion between Europe and Japan is also provided. Finally, we develop an integrative framework to explore the co-evolutionary nature of nanotech. The paper then tries to derive some implications that would be useful for science and technology policy makers as well as for researchers in traditional scientific disciplines.     

Technological and geographical proximity effects on knowledge spillovers: evidence from the US patent citations

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pattern of knowledge flows as indicated by the patent citations in three areas: USA, Japan and Europe. In each economic area, we use information from United States Patent and Trademarks Office data to assess empirically the impact of the technological and geographical proximities for 530 international firms. In particular, the contribution to the existing literature is twofold: first, we use an international sample in such a way that we may compare the empirical results among different economic markets; second, we extend the analysis of the determinants of knowledge spillovers, taking into account the time dimension of the effects of the proximities. In order to compute the technological proximity, we follow the methodology developed by A.B. Jaffe (1986 Jaffe, A. B. 1986. Technological opportunity and spillovers of R&D: Evidence from firms’ patents, profits and market value. American Economic Review, 76(5): 984–1001. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Technological opportunity and spillovers of R&D: Evidence from firms’ patents, profits and market value. American Economic Review 76, no. 5: 984–1001), where a technological vector is based on the distribution of patents of each firm across technology classes. As far as the geographic proximity is concerned, we use the latitude and the longitude coordinates of the city in which each firm is situated to obtain the distance, in miles, between the firms. The empirical results, in line with results from previous studies, indicate that there is a statistically significant relationship between the knowledge flows, proxied by the patent citations, and the proximities, but the effects are rather differentiated according to the proximity type.     

Localized technological change, new information technology and the knowledge-based economy: The European evidence

This work analyzes the co-evolution of new information and communication technologies and the knowledge-intensive business industry. New information technology affects the actual conditions of information, its basic characteristics of appropriation and tradability, favouring the role of business services as forces of interaction between knowledge components in the generation of new technology. Empirical analyses, based on input/output statistics of the European economy in the second half of 1980's, demonstrate the existence of a correlation between the usage of business and communication services and confirm their high output elasticity.     

Vacant technology forecasting using new Bayesian patent clustering

Vacant technology forecasting (VTF) is a technology forecasting approach to find technological needs for given industrial field in the future. It is important to know the future trend of developing technology for the R&D planning of a company and a country. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model for patent clustering. This is a VTF methodology based on patent data analysis. Our method is composed of Bayesian learning and ensemble method to construct the VTF model. To illustrate the practical way of the proposed methodology, we perform a case study of given technology domain using retrieved patent documents from patent databases in the world.     

Designing foresight studies for Nanoscience and Nanotechnology (NST) future developments

Nanoscience and Nanotechnology (NST) is widely considered as one of the most promising areas of scientific and technological development for future decades. As a consequence, almost every country in the world has chosen to invest significantly in this area. This choice, however, is only a first step in the investment decision process, given that almost any scientific discipline can be taken at the scale of a nanometre. In this paper, it is argued that foresight studies to decide where to invest in the nanotechnology area should be designed in a different way from what is normally done. Nanotechnology, in fact, has specific characteristics that should be taken into account when evaluating its expected impacts and potentialities.     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

Technological innovation strategy: how do technology life cycles change by technological area

Discussions on the patterns of technological innovation have significant implications in terms of the efficient distribution of national R&D resources and the establishment of corporate managerial strategies. This study is focused on calculating and analysing technology cycle time (TCT) by technological area based on patent data that can be used as easily accessible objective indicators for the purpose of modelling the patterns of technological innovation by period and technological area. The main technological areas handled by the study include medical science, vehicles, metallurgy, and computing. Of the patent data registered with the United States Patent and Trademark Office from 1990 to 2014, International Patent Classification sub-class codes representing each technological area were selected to collect patent data, and to generate TCT statistics every five years. The TCT statistics generated is interpreted as the technological life cycle, to be used in modelling technological innovation patterns individualised by technology and period.     

Anticipating technology-driven industry convergence: evidence from large-scale patent analysis

ABSTRACT

Industry convergence has been the subject of many prior studies, yet most have focused on certain domains based on ex post evaluation. This study presents a systematic approach to anticipating technology-driven industry convergence using large-scale patent analysis covering all technology fields. Our approach includes patent co-classification analysis with the concordance between patent classes and industrial sectors to measure technological relations between industries; centrality and brokerage analysis to identify the specific roles of technology fields in industry convergence; and finally link prediction analysis to anticipate technology-driven industry convergence. A case study with the patents issued by the United States Patent and Trademark Office from 1976 to 2014 confirms that our approach provides a holistic and forward-looking perspective on technology-driven industry convergence.