经济政策不确定性与企业退出决策:理论与实证研究

经济政策影响微观企业经营是现有研究的共识.在已有文献基础上,文章考察了经济政策不确定性对企业退出决策的影响.文章基于一个代表性企业最优退出决策的框架,构建了经济政策不确定性影响企业退出决策作用机制的理论模型,并利用1998?2011年中国工业企业微观数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.研究结果显示,经济政策不确定性通过增加市场预期收益的机制降低了企业的退出概率,即面对高水平的经济政策不确定性时,企业对未来市场形成了良好的预期,倾向于采取理性的"延迟退出"决策.进一步分析发现,企业退出决策的"延迟现象"在不同企业、行业和区域间呈现出异质性,经济政策不确定性更多地延迟了具有优越发展前景的企业、行业及区域的市场退出.从企业方面来看,这一现象在规模小、跨产业经营、出口、政府补贴的企业及创新企业中更加显著;从行业方面来看,这一现象在资金技术密集型的行业及生产率高的行业中更加显著;从区域来看,这一现象在市场化程度高的区域及经济增长快的区域更加显著.可见,政府的经济政策变动,不仅引导了企业制定理性的战略决策,而且激励了优势资源和市场的持续发展.     

金融体系特征、风险特性与企业创新

本文基于中国工业企业库和专利数据库，利用2006—2008年中国证券市场资本化总额占比的快速上升和企业风险特性的差异，探讨了金融结构和金融发展对企业创新的影响。实证结果表明，市场主导程度更高的金融结构，而非更大的金融市场总体规模，通过缓解外部融资依赖程度更高行业中的私有企业的融资约束，显著促进了高风险私有企业的创新。以上实证结果并非由金融体系特征变化前的时间趋势所驱动，并对遗漏变量等问题保持稳健。本文对于深入理解转型升级，构建支持企业创新的金融体系具有重要政策含义。     

Born to flip. Exit decisions of entrepreneurial firms in high-tech and low-tech industries

This paper examines the way that the exit behavior of entrepreneurial firms is shaped by their innovative capabilities, and the technology environment in which they operate. We distinguish between exit by closing down activity and exit by merger or acquisition (M&A). Using a large sample of Dutch manufacturing firms, we explore the relationship between firm exit, age and innovative capabilities, in high and low innovation intensive industries. We find that for entrepreneurial firms, innovation may go some way towards compensating for the liability of newness, but also makes them more attractive M&A targets. More specifically, entrepreneurial firms in high-tech industries do not seem to improve their chances of survival by innovating; when technological change is rapid, innovation, especially in products, is necessary to participate in the innovation race in an industry, but is not sufficient to guarantee survival. In contrast, in low-tech industries, process innovation is a critical condition for the survival of entrepreneurial firms. In this context, entrepreneurial firms that are able to bring new product ideas, introducing ‘exceptional’ variations into a stable environment, are most likely to exit by M&A, thereby transferring their knowledge and capabilities to the incumbent firms.     

Voluntary Environmental Agreements vs. Emission Taxes in Strategic Trade Models

The purpose of the paper is to narrow the gap between the widespread use of voluntary agreements and research on the rationale of such approaches. A topical example are voluntary agreements of many industries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions because of global warming. If the industry anticipates that taxes and fees will be introduced in the coming years, it seems rational to act in advance in order to mitigate the tax levels.The conventional approach in strategic trade and tax models was to look at a two-stage game where governments set taxes first and then firms react. In such a policy regime the government is concerned about the international competitiveness of its firms and sets taxes below marginal damages. In this paper, we consider a policy regime with a reversed timing. Firms commit themselves in the face of emission taxes to abatement efforts and to lower levels of the environmentally intensive output. Then the government introduces the tax. Under this timing of strategies the tax is equal to marginal damage. Firms waive profit and reduce output in order to use less of the polluting input. The reward for this behavior will be a less strict use of policy instruments and hence lower abatement costs in the near future.     

Building Technological Capabilities In A Liberalising Developing Economy: Firm Strategies And Public Policy

As a consequence of economic reforms, the Indian manufacturing sector faces a variety of technology related challenges. It not only has to quickly develop world-class manufacturing capabilities, but also gear up to develop new products and processes. In this paper we analyse the technology strategies of six Indian firms in different product groups which are trying to build competitive manufacturing and technology capabilities. The linkages between corporate, technology, and manufacturing strategies are explored and the role of complementary assets is studied in order to identify patterns through which these firms are building capabilities of various kinds. Specifically, we evaluate the extent to which firms use supply chains to develop product and process technologies. Some links between public policy and firm level technological capabilities are also explored to identify a few key priorities in the current context     

The governance of agro- and pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation: Public policy and industrial strategy

Multinational companies in the life science sector are heavily influenced by government policies and regulations and in turn attempt to influence these actors nationally and internationally. This paper focuses on recent and on-going research, principally on the agro-biotechnology and, to a lesser extent, on the pharmaceutical industries, covering the evolution of policy and regulation in Europe, how policies are influenced by stakeholder pressures and how policy in turn influences company strategies for product development. We focus particularly on new 'governance' agendas in Europe and consider the relative impacts of enabling, constraining, discriminating and indiscriminate policies on company strategies as part of our development of an integrated approach to policy and governance. We also consider changes in external operating environments for multinational companies and compare past histories and present pressures on agro-biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies. The paper argues, with evidence, that a more enabling and discriminating policy and regulatory environment can achieve public goals more efficiently and effectively, taking account of impacts on innovation, than more blunt policy instruments. This type of environment takes into account the resources and capabilities available to firms and research laboratories rather than relying on broad brush carrot and stick approaches.     

The governance of agro- and pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation: Public policy and industrial strategy

Multinational companies in the life science sector are heavily influenced by government policies and regulations and in turn attempt to influence these actors nationally and internationally. This paper focuses on recent and on-going research, principally on the agro-biotechnology and, to a lesser extent, on the pharmaceutical industries, covering the evolution of policy and regulation in Europe, how policies are influenced by stakeholder pressures and how policy in turn influences company strategies for product development. We focus particularly on new ‘governance’ agendas in Europe and consider the relative impacts of enabling, constraining, discriminating and indiscriminate policies on company strategies as part of our development of an integrated approach to policy and governance. We also consider changes in external operating environments for multinational companies and compare past histories and present pressures on agro-biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies. The paper argues, with evidence, that a more enabling and discriminating policy and regulatory environment can achieve public goals more efficiently and effectively, taking account of impacts on innovation, than more blunt policy instruments. This type of environment takes into account the resources and capabilities available to firms and research laboratories rather than relying on broad brush carrot and stick approaches.     

Monetary shocks,equity returns and volatility: a firm-level panel data analysis

This article studies the impact of monetary policy shocks on equity returns and their volatility among nine industries and their affiliated firms in the United States. We use an extension of the traditional CAPM as the analytical framework and approximate policy shocks with the unexpected component of the federal funds rate. Data on the characteristics of firms and industries are obtained from Compustat and the Center for Research in Security Prices, covering a sample period from 1987 to 2009. Our results clearly show that responses to policy shocks vary by industry and across firms. Furthermore, credit availability matters in certain industries, and small, financially constrained, and bank-dependent firms are found to be more vulnerable to unexpected federal funds rate shocks.     

State-firm Coordination and Upgrading in Spain's and Korea's ICT Industries

ABSTRACT

Generating sustainable growth and reaching advanced economy status depend on the ability of countries to host local, globally competitive firms in skill-, capital-, and knowledge-intensive industries. However, few countries succeed. This paper asks whether state activism is necessary to foster economic transformation at high levels of complexity in the globalisation era, and if so, what strategies are effective. Using evidence from Spain's and Korea's ICT industries since the 1980s, the paper argues that state-firm coordination remains necessary to reach the efficiency frontier in complex industries. However, coordination has shifted from hierarchical structures to nonhierarchical models in which states and firms develop mutually agreed-upon working rules to reach beneficial outcomes. Nonhierarchical coordination may involve adopting different institutional configurations, depending on the identities and capabilities of firms and national governments and on the nature of linkages with other nations. These linkages may lead to alternative pathways to upgrading and diverse productive specialisations.     

Embodied technological change in supplier dominated firms

This paper identifies the role of new capital goods as the main external source of innovation for supplier dominated firms belonging to traditional consumer good industries. After a brief survey on the role of inter-industry technology flows, the results of a field study are presented concerning the amount of technological change embodied in the new machinery acquired during the 1980s by a sample of Italian manufacturing firms producing traditional consumer goods. We show that industries and firms differ in the quality of technological change embodied in (or allowed by) new capital goods, and that such differences depend on industry-specific and firm-specific factors. The former primarily refer to product characteristics, the latter mainly to the age and the affiliation of the firm with an industrial group. The final section contains some policy suggestions for fostering the diffusion of new machinery (embodying technological change) among small firms and traditional industries.     

Policy, Markets and Knowledge: Strategic Synergies in Indian Pharmaceutical Firms

This paper addresses the question of how Indian pharmaceutical firms have transformed themselves from reverse-engineering firms focused on the domestic market to research-driven firms with global presence. It analyses the crucial and changing role of national, then international, innovation and regulatory policies and their impact on growth, performance and technology evolution of Indian pharmaceutical firms. The paper argues that although public policy increased market turbulence, it also provided new opportunities for firms to expand and build new technology, knowledge and market capabilities. From the 1950s Indian firms have pursued a variety of research, marketing and internationalization strategies to tackle changes prompted by policy, markets and knowledge complexities. The paper traces firm strategies that vary both in time and by firm, and argues that the successful firms have evolved substantively towards knowledge-based strategies. The paper then attempts to identify future directions for strategy, knowledge and markets.     

Labour unions and multi‐product firms in closed and open economies

Abstract This paper sets up a general oligopolistic equilibrium model with multi‐product firms and union wage setting. In this model, we conduct two policy experiments. First, we show that deunionization induces a general decline in firm scale and scope, the respective reduction being more pronounced in non‐unionized industries. Second, we study the consequences of trade liberalization, and show that access to foreign markets lowers firm scope in all industries as well as the scope differential between unionized and non‐unionized firms. Adjustments in firm scale turn out to be less clear‐cut and, inter alia, depend on the degree of product differentiation.     

产业政策如何影响企业绩效：不同政策与作用路径是否存在影响差异?

文章将产业政策分成供给型、需求型与环境型,依托中国战略性新兴产业分析了不同政策通过政策资源的直接配置以及企业间配置两种作用路径对企业(产业)绩效的影响。研究发现：与供给型政策相结合的补贴行为通过以上两个路径抑制了企业绩效提升;产业政策对不同大小企业的影响存在差异,供给型政策资源的配置在小企业间并未呈现显著的集中特征,但在大企业间政策资源更为集中;供给型政策主要通过政策资源在企业间的配置路径降低大企业绩效,而通过补贴直接配置路径抑制小企业绩效提升;整体看环境型政策对投资、补贴等行为没有显著影响,但对大企业而言,其对政策资源在企业间的分散配置具有负向作用,而这一影响在小企业中则为促进作用。研究还发现,需求型政策有利于资源再配置,供给型政策则尚未显示出积极的资源再配置作用。     

Waste disclosure and corporate cash holdings

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we address an important and emerging question: Can firms’ voluntary waste disclosure affect corporate cash holdings? Using a sample of S&P 500 firms, we find strong evidence for a positive relationship between waste disclosure and the cash holding policy of firms. Furthermore, we find that waste disclosure significantly increases cash holdings only for firms with strong corporate governance quality. We also find that the significant relationship between waste disclosure and cash holdings remains unchanged only for firms that operate in environmentally sensitive industries. Our paper provides novel evidence on the role of voluntary waste disclosure as an environmental dimension that influences the cash policy of firms and highlights the little-known issue of waste disclosure as a significant research topic.     

Profit rates and structural variables in French manufacturing industries

In this paper, the authors apply the theory of industrial organization to the French manufacturing sector. Profit rates of industries and firms are related to concentration on the product market, differentiation, economies of scale, absolute capital cost requirements and to firm sizes. The analysis suggest that concentration on the seller's side may lead to misallocation of resources in industries in which barriers to entry are high. They also suggest that large firms may be less efficient than smaller firms. These results call into question the industrial policy of the French government over the last ten years.     

A corporation’s culture as an impetus for spinoffs and a driving force of industry evolution

We offer a theory of spinoffs that explains some salient aspects of these important market entrants. In infant industries, a great share of new market opportunities is depleted by firms that spinoff from incumbents. A model emphasizing the relation between incumbents’ evolving corporate cultures and the generation of spinoffs explains this regularity in industry evolution. By doing so, we capture different patterns in firm development that finally will help explain the evolutionary paths that industries may follow. We show that organizations reach a critical size that entails the collapse of a cooperative culture and triggers the exodus of personnel founding own firms. Thereby, organizations with a cooperative culture active in a dynamic business environment provide ideal training grounds for potential founders. Moreover, we argue that cooperative firm cultures and processes of “entrepreneurial imprinting” are important sources of spinoffs’ superior capabilities concerning their later market performance. We relate our findings to empirical evidence on developmental patterns in industries, such as genealogies and performance of spinoffs.     

Risks and opportunities for the progress of digitalization in Mexico

ABSTRACT

The aim of this research is to identify Mexico’s current conditions for the incorporation of the changes derived from the processes of increasing digitization into its productive sector, called Industry 4.0. To achieve this goal, this work uses the results obtained from a survey questionnaire answered by qualified technological and productive informants with the purpose of identifying the perspectives of firms initiating this transformation. The selection of information units was based on a theoretical sample (not statistically representative), a methodological feature that forced us to analyze carefully the data collected. The results reached show that, from the perspective of the actors involved, the innovative structure in Mexico presents serious limitations in terms of technical and organizational capabilities of the firms to incorporate digital technologies in their production processes. This paper proposes a first exploratory analysis on the visions of Mexican firms and intermediary organizations that deals with the increasing technical and organizational challenges of the new digital technologies. This article provides analytical and empirical inputs for the analysis of the opportunities that Mexican firms have to incorporate these new technical trends. Finally, the work highlights critical institutional and governance aspects for the debate of national industrial and innovative policy agendas.     

Industrial subsidy policy and the optimal level of specialization

Despite compelling rationale based on the theory of comparative advantage for free trade, many countries adopt restrictive trade practices. In this paper we investigate this puzzle in a stylized two-country two-good Ricardian model of international trade. Governments can offer protection to domestic industries via industrial subsidy policy in this model. We prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium in the two-player game where industries choose the level of specialization. We determine the necessary conditions for complete specialization in (a) the free-trade regime; and (b) the protectionist regime implemented through industrial subsidy policy. Our results show that if the government intends to promote complete specialization, then a high degree of comparative advantage and a large elasticity of substitution between export and import goods are required. Empirical evidence on these two parameters indicate that complete specialization is unlikely to survive in the protectionist regime.     

我国战略性新兴产业创新能力评价及政策研究

基于能力观视角,结合国家创新驱动发展战略及创新管理理论,从创新政策扶持等5个方面构建我国战略性新兴产业创新能力评价体系。搜集我国内地31个省级行政区战略性新兴产业2010-2016年数据,运用因子分析和聚类分析法衡量我国各省级行政区战略性新兴产业创新能力,揭示不同地区战略性新兴产业创新能力的差异与原因,并对我国内地31个省级行政区进行类别判断。研究发现：我国战略性新兴产业整体创新能力较弱,区域发展不平衡问题依然存在;多数地区存在创新短板,“木桶效应”限制了区域整体创新潜力;不同地区创新能力大致呈金字塔形态分布,且“胡焕庸线”两侧差距明显。最后,针对不同地区实际情况和区域特征提出政策建议。     

As times goes by. A dynamic impact assessment of the innovation policy and the Matthew effect on Argentinean firms

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of public funds for innovation on firm’s capabilities, innovative dynamics and economic performance. A large stream of literature about the evaluation of public funds is focused on testing the existence of additionality effects on investments and results. This paper aims to provide evidence about other dimensions of the firm that public policy can alter, with focus on the time window between the treatment and the impact, and the role of the Matthew effect (recurrence) in this process. The empirical exercise is based on a dynamic panel data made of 1465 firms (3337 observations) that applied to the Argentinean Technological Fund (FONTAR), which is the main public fund for innovation in Argentina, between 2007 and 2016. Results show short-term effects of accessing to FONTAR on firms’ capabilities, medium-term effects on innovation efforts and long-term effects on productivity. Even though the effect on productivity is larger among recurrent firms, the differences among recurrent and non-recurrent firms are not conclusive in case of capabilities and innovation efforts. All in all, this research provides evidence about the ‘when’ of public policy and the need to look beyond input additionality effects when analysing its impact.