Foundational ontologies and multi-paradigm analysis,applied to the socio-technical transition from mixed farming to intensive pig husbandry (1930–1980)

This article adds a new case study to the expanding literature on socio-technical transitions: the shift from mixed farming to intensive pig husbandry in the Netherlands. With regard to this transition, the article addresses a new direction, namely the role of foundational ontologies in explanation. Five ontologies are distinguished, which are based on different assumptions about causal agents and causal mechanisms: rational choice, functionalism, conflict and power struggle, interpretivism, and structuralism. The article demonstrates how these ontologies provide different explanations of same case. It also empirically investigates the strengths and weaknesses of different ontological explanations, and identifies possible complementarities in this case. The article ends with theoretical reflections on the relationships between ontologies and the role of meta-paradigm analysis.     

Interdependencies in the energy–bioenergy–food price systems: A cointegration analysis

The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant.     

System innovation through stepwise reconfiguration: the case of technological transitions in Dutch greenhouse horticulture (1930–1980)

Although transitions are usually perceived as technological substitution processes, the article shows that stepwise reconfiguration is more likely for supplier-dominated sectors. In this transition pattern, novelties are initially adopted as ‘modular innovation’ into existing systems and subsequently reconfigure the basic architecture through new combinations of old and new elements. Incumbent actors survive these transitions through interactions with suppliers of knowledge and innovations. Using Pavitt's innovation typology, we selected a case study from his supplier-dominated category: greenhouse farming. The article makes a techno-economic analysis of the overall transition pattern in Dutch greenhouse horticulture (1930–1980) and a socio-institutional analysis of the knowledge flows and networks. ‘Innovation cascades’ are identified as a particularly important mechanism in reconfiguration transitions.     

The transition from ‘socialist’ agriculture to the common agricultural policy: the case of Slovenia

This article describes the changes in Slovenian agricultural policy in the period 1993–2001 in light of Slovenia's anticipated accession to the European Union. Agriculture in Slovenia is characterised by relatively unfavourable natural and structural conditions, which also explains its status as a net food importer and its relatively protectionist agricultural policy. The period of transition was also a period of thorough restructuring of agricultural policy, which was gradually brought into line with the goals and mechanisms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Even before accession Slovenia started to implement CAP-like measures, including direct payments and rural development policy measures. Slovenia is thus the only candidate country for EU accession with a level of support for agriculture comparable with that in the European Union. In its negotiations for EU membership, Slovenia agreed on the same level of direct payments for Slovenian farmers as received by farmers in the European Union, except that in the first period they will be largely covered from the national budget. As a result of the outcome of negotiations, the economic position of Slovenian farmers after accession is not expected to change markedly on the aggregate level, particularly if all the necessary steps are taken with regard to the building of an efficient system for the transposition of the CAP. Accession to the EU will, however, not solve the problem of relatively poor compeititiveness of the agricultural sector in Slovenia, which still has to undergo comprehensive structural changes and adjustments.     

A closed-form solution to the transitional dynamics of the Lucas–Uzawa model

This paper studies how the intertemporal allocation determines the transitional dynamics to a given steady state and the long-term growth of an economy. Our main contribution consists in determining the solutions path for all the variables of the model, under fairly general conditions on σ and β.     

The dynamics of regional unemployment in the UK, 1974–89

This paper investigates the relationship between regional and national unemployment for the UK for the period 1974–1989. This problem is approached by using the time-series methods of cointegration and causality tests. The main conclusions are that regional and national unemployment are not as closely related as might have been supposed although any causation may, as previously assumed, run from the national to the regional level. Some regions are seen to be changing their position in the hierarchy of relative regional unemployment while most retain their relative status.     

The institutionalisation of political economy in Italy and Spain (1860–1900): a comparative approach

Abstract

The process of institutionalisation of political economy has become of increasing interest in tracing the evolution of economic thought. This paper presents a comparison of the development of these processes in Italy and Spain, through the analysis of the presence of political economy in some institutions in both countries between 1860 and 1900: universities, economic associations, economic journals and national parliaments. This essay aims at supplying new insights to the consolidation of economics as a scientific and socially appreciated field of knowledge, and exploring the influence of the form of institutionalisation on the economic ideas diffused in a particular country.     

The retreat of the state from entrepreneurial activities: A convergence analysis for OECD countries, 1980–2007

In this paper, we measure the extent and dissemination of the retreat of the state from entrepreneurial activities in 20 OECD countries during the 1980–2007 period using a three-dimensional concept and a new dataset, the REST database. We consider privatization, deregulation in network-based services, and the cutback of subsidies. Though the empirical analysis confirms a clear trend towards diminishing state influence in all three dimensions, the analysis of both sigma and conditional beta convergence indicates convergence only for privatization (measured by public employment) and for subsidization, indicating that OECD countries have become similar and have converged to a common equilibrium with respect to these dimensions.     

The disadvantage of entrants: did transition eliminate it? The case of the Russian footwear industry (1992–2000)

Several studies have analyzed entry in developed capitalist economies coming to the conclusion that entrants are usually smaller, less productive and at higher hazard than incumbents. This study considers if this was the case also in the rather peculiar situation of those firms which entered during the period of transition from planned to market economy, in one of the ex-soviet countries. Additionally this work considers whether or not the uncertain environment generated by transition did activate a process of entry, as situations of uncertainty are generally supposed to do. The main result of this paper is that despite the fact that incumbents were firms created and organized to meet the objectives of the soviet regime, they were not outperformed by subsequently-created firms which were formed to match the needs of a transitional/quasi market economy. These results do not support “vintage” and “liability of obsolescence” models which suggest that new comers are better fitted to match new conditions.

Income distribution dynamics of urban residents: The case of China (1995–2004)

Using a 1995–2004 panel data of Chinese urban residents, we investigate the dynamics of income distribution in cities. According to Kernel estimates of the relative income distribution of Chinese cities, we find that: (1) the national across-city distribution of per capita GDP exhibits an apparent unique-peak distribution in 1995 and an “emerging multiple-peak” one in 2004; (2) for prefecture-level cities, income distribution has evolved to an “apparent multiple-peak” distribution from a unique-peak one; (3) the income distribution of county-level cities maintains a unique-peak curve; (4) most of the income dynamics of urban residents originates from prefecture-and-higher-level cities. We sample three representative provinces and study the urban income dynamics respectively. The analysis suggests that within a single province, urban income distribution evolves from unique-peak to twin-peak curve; while among provinces, income convergence is evident for urban residents. In addition, we measure the incidence of poverty in cities based on our income dynamics analysis, and find that the ratios of people living below absolute poverty line have been decreasing at cities of all levels.     

The distribution of income in Sri Lanka in 1969–1970 and 1980–1981: A decomposition analysis

In 1977 the Sri Lankan government implemented a comprehensive policy of economic liberalization, removing many government controls on the economy and providing incentives for both foreign and domestic investment. The previous policies were often justified as necessary to maintain an equitable distribution of income. Income data from 1969–1970 and 1980–1981 surveys indicate that inequality has increased, but these data are shown to be unreliable for drawing conclusions on changes in the distribution of income. Expenditure data from the same surveys indicate that inequality has declined in the 1970's, both in the economy as a whole and within all sectors and ethnic groups.     

A Takayama–Judge activity model applied to the analysis of allocation and trade in Sweden

The purpose of this article is to formulate a numerical general equilibrium model of the Swedish economy, and to use the model for a quantitative evaluation of the pattern of comparative advantages. The model is essentially a Leontief type of input-output model, extended with linear demand functions for final commodities, foreign trade activities and capacity and resource constraints. Due to the linearity the model can easily be reformulated and solved as a quadratic programming model. The evaluation of the pattern of comparative advantages of the Swedish economy is carried out as an analysis of the choice between inport and domestic production in a temporary equilibrium framework with exogenously given world market prices, exports and domestic production capacities.     

Regime switching and the (in)stability of the price–rent relationship: evidence from the US

Present value models of house prices assert that in the absence of self-fulfilling bubbles, a house price is equal to the present discount value of all future rents, which implies a linear relationship between house price and rent, and hence a stable price-to-rent ratio. Using a Markov switching error correction model, we re-examine this relationship in the US housing market and find two distinctive regimes: one with a long-run relation between house price and rent predicted by the present value models and the other in which the relation is nonlinear. Furthermore, we find evidence that deviations of house prices from the present value models’ predictions are caused by the overreaction of house prices to movements in rents rather than speculative bubbles attributable to extraneous factors.     

A Behavioral Analysis of Technological Change in the Computer Industry, 1930–1950

This article presents a binary economic critique of Milton Friedman's thesis that a competitive, free market, private enterprise, capitalist system is an essential condition for freedom. After identifying deficiencies in Friedman's understanding of private property and economics, this article explains how a market economy based on Friedman's flawed understanding concentrates economic power in a plutocracy, perpetuates chronic underemployment of labor and capital, and suppresses the freedom of most people. It advances a "binary economic approach" to create a more productive and democratic market system characterized by greater, more sustainable, and more widely-distributed prosperity, economic power, and individual freedom than prevails in any existing capitalist economy.     

The shift from theory to innovation: the evolution of Brazilian research frontiers 2005–2011

Proliferation of emerging economies as significant sources of competitive knowledge is a key feature of globalisation, often driven by government policies fostering domestic research-based innovation capabilities. To cast light on this common emerging economy effort to move from catch-up towards the global innovation frontier, we analyse the evolution of the focus of Brazilian research frontiers 2005–2011 with bibliometric methods. Our results demonstrate a gradual and moderate shift from theoretical scientific knowledge to more innovation-centred knowledge in the most influential Brazilian research, indicating the increased prominence and quality of innovation focused efforts in country's knowledge system. Thus, the recent expansion of Brazil's innovation system is accompanied by qualitative transformations of the research system, in part driven by nationally emerging research fields and technologies. Conceptually, we consider the overall importance of scientific research for developing and emerging economy innovation system build-up.     

A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)

We propose a novel chronology of global business cycles based on industrial production data for a sample of 85 countries at a monthly frequency from 1980 until 2012 and the Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm. We assess the methodology with statistical tools of signal detection theory and against existing chronologies of country-specific turning points. Finally, we conclude by introducing and evaluating a logit model of the probability of a global downturn occurring up to 12 months ahead. This model uses the macro and financial indicators tracked by the Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (see Grossman et al., 2014) to offer advanced warning of upcoming turning points of the global cycle.     

The effect of the GARCH(1, 1) on autocorrelation tests in dynamic systems of equations

Using Monte Carlo methods, the properties of systemwise generalizations of the Breusch–Godfrey test for autocorrelated errors are studied when there are some kinds of GARCH effects among the errors. The analysis, regarding the size of the test, reveals that the GARCH have considerable effects of the properties of the test regarding the size, especially in large systems of equations. The corrected LR tests, however, have been shown to perform satisfactorily in small systems when the errors are white noise or they have low GARCH effects, whilst the commonly used TR2 test behaves badly even in single equations. All tests perform badly, however, when the number of equations increases and the GARCH effect is strong. As regards the power of the test, the GARCH was not found to have any significant effects on the power properties of the test.     

A cost–utility analysis of degarelix in the treatment of advanced hormone-dependent prostate cancer in the United Kingdom

Objective:

To determine the cost-effectiveness of the treatment of advanced hormone-dependent prostate cancer with degarelix compared to luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonists in the UK using the latest available evidence and the model submitted to AWMSG.

Methods:

A cost-effectiveness model was developed from the perspective of the UK National Health Service evaluating monthly injection of degarelix against 3-monthly leuprorelin therapy plus anti-androgen flare cover for the first-line treatment of patients with advanced (locally advanced or metastatic) hormone-dependent prostate cancer. A Markov process model was constructed using the patient population characteristics and efficacy information from the CS21 Phase III clinical trial and associated extension study (CS21A). The intention-to-treat (ITT) population and a high-risk sub-group with a PSA level >20?ng/mL were modeled.

Results:

In the base-case analysis using the patient access scheme (PAS) price, degarelix was dominant compared to leuprorelin with cost savings of £3633 in the ITT population and £4310 in the PSA?>?20?ng/mL sub-group. The chance of being cost-effective was 95% in the ITT population and 96% in the PSA?>?20?ng/mL sub-group at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). In addition, degarelix remained dominant when PSA progression was assumed equal and only the benefits of preventing testosterone flare were taken into account. Treatment with degarelix also remained dominant in both populations when the list price was used. The additional investment required to treat patients with degarelix could be offset in 19 months for the ITT population and 13 months for the PSA?>?20?ng/mL population. The model was most sensitive to the hazard ratio assumed for PSA progression between degarelix and leuprorelin and the quality-of-life (utility) of patients receiving palliative care.

Conclusion:

Degarelix is likely to be cost-effective compared to leuprorelin plus anti-androgen flare cover in the first-line treatment of advanced hormone-dependent prostate cancer.     

Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone

Empirical studies find that fluctuations in output and other macroeconomic aggregates are positively related across countries. Economic theory focuses on two main explanations: common shocks and common transmission mechanisms. In this paper, we conduct an empirical analysis of the international influences, specifically from the U.S. and E.U. on the Greek business-cycle. First, we provide an in-depth analysis of the Greek economy, summarizing crucial aspects and trends by means of relevant econometric techniques such as business cycles extraction and periodization based on filtering, spectral analysis and causality tests. Next, we assess the long-run equilibriums of the Greek economy with the rest of the E.U. countries and the U.S. economy by means of a Vector Error Correction model. Our results imply a significant shift in the long-run equilibriums of the Greek economy towards increasing convergence rates with the U.S. economy after the implementation of the common monetary policy and increasing convergence rates towards the peripheral countries of the E.M.U. Also, the Greek GDP fluctuations are found to be caused, to a certain extent, by the EMU and US fluctuations, implying a transmission mechanism of business cycles from the EMU and the US to the Greek economy.     

Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974–1992)

Using Vector Error-Correction (VEC) model estimation on monthly data from Morocco for the period January 1974 to December 1992, this article tests the hypothesis that there is a long-run stable relationship between the official and the black-market exchange rates for US dollars. We also examine the short-run dynamics in the relationship between the two markets. The econometric results indicate that the two exchange rates are cointegrated. Furthermore, we reject weak exogeneity in the case of the official exchange rate, but fail to reject it in the case of the black-market rate. Granger causality tests show that the black-market rate causes the official exchange rate. The results seem to support the efficiency hypothesis, suggesting that participants in the black-market are able to anticipate changes in the official exchange rate. The findings also suggest that Morocco's decision (in January 1993) to introduce only current account convertibility and keep controls on capital accounts was wise.