Some aspects of an analytical framework for studying the diffusion of organizational innovations

The objective of this paper is to explore the extent to which the more recent literature on innovation and decision, with a prime focus on technical innovations, can contribute to a useful analytical framework for studying the diffusion of organizational innovations. We review that literature, compare the intrinsic features of technical and organizational innovations, and explore what these differences may mean for an eventual analytical framework specifically developed for studying organizational innovations. We conclude that the received 'innovation' literature has a great deal to offer but that some modifications are required. In particular, we suggest that the role of factors 'inside' the non and of non-market mechanisms for transfer of organizational innovations needs special emphasis.     

Constructing and mobilising futures knowledge in an organisation: foresight as a catalyst of dynamic strategic practice

The paper discusses foresight as a dynamic strategic practice and theorises the connections of foresight and strategic management. The paper argues that organisations have a rising need to foster relevant future-oriented knowledge in a continuous process that builds on the systemic understanding of the operational environment. For this purpose, the paper outlines a conceptual framework for continuous organisational foresight practice. The framework is based on two conceptual bedrocks. The first is the idea of continuity, referring to the long-term accumulation of organisational practices. The second bedrock is the notion of discontinuity as an organisational transformation factor. Furthermore, the framework builds on the notion of four knowledge spaces in an organisation, and it is constructed through six layers depicted in detail. The paper demonstrates this framework through a case study of a Finnish research and technology organisation, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.     

ICT,BUSINESS SERVICES AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

This paper focuses on the diffusion of knowledge intensive business services (KIBS) in relation to information and communication technology-based innovations and their effect on productivity growth. Intermediate purchases of KIBS by any other industry determine the extent of KIBS diffusion. This diffusion is seen as part of the broader process of organisational innovations. We find a significant positive relation between this measure of KIBS diffusion and the intensity of information technology (IT). Not only do use of IT and KIBS both contribute positively to labour productivity growth, we also find that the combination of these two inputs adds further to productivity growth for the aggregate economy.     

Innovation types and labour organisational practices: A comparison of foreign and domestic firms in the Reggio Emilia industrial districts

In his Theory of Economic Development, Schumpeter introduced the distinction between different innovation types. Since then, a variety of studies have addressed this topic. However, despite of the recognised significance of more de-verticalised organisational forms in shaping and directing firms' innovative performance, no attempt has been made, as far as our knowledge is concerned, to investigate whether these practices are linked to the introduction of specific innovation types. The aim of the study is to fill this gap by investigating the impact of de-verticalised forms of labour organisational practices, different modes of organising research and development activity and the nature of employees' competences on the likelihood of introducing different types of innovations, controlling for firm's size and sectoral specificities. The results obtained on a sample of 199 firms located in Reggio Emilia province in Italy confirm that innovation development is a heterogeneous activity. The empirical evidence gathered also shows that foreign and domestic firms do not differ, to some extent, in the introduction of different kinds of innovations. However, being foreign or domestic is a discriminating factor in the introduction of innovations stimulating labour organisational developments.     

The long-run dynamics of product and process innovations for a multi-product monopolist

This paper introduces the dynamical framework which combines product and process innovations. The model contributes to the theoretical literature on innovations in two ways. First, it permits for the simultaneous dynamics of both types of innovations which is rarely considered in the literature. Second, the products being generated by the innovations are heterogeneous in their investment characteristics. This allows for the formation of the dynamic interdependency between both types of innovations. As a result, the steady-state levels of process innovations for each product are different and influence the dynamics of product innovations in turn.     

The take-off of an interactive innovation: Evidence from China

An interactive innovation can be defined as an end-user application which is subject to network effects at both the demand and supply sides. As a result of network effects, the diffusion of such an innovation is predicted to follow a take-off curve coinciding with the advent of a critical mass of adopters. The current literature on innovation diffusion, mainly focusing on the demand-side dynamics, such as information cascades and herding behaviors among potential adopters, is not sufficient to explain the take-off (or the failure) of interactive innovations. In this paper, we present and examine a case study of the take-off of an interactive innovation, namely the caller-ring-back-tone (CRBT) and mobile music - mobile value-added services (MVAS) - in China. We find that supply-side dynamics, such as choices of platform strategies, helped drive the take-off of this innovation within China's institutional boundaries. The paper makes a contribution in two ways: first, it presents an ‘inside-out’ view of a unique case of take-off phenomenon; and, second it provides an integrated view combining factors from both the demand and supply sides to explain the take-off phenomenon, which is rare in empirical studies.     

Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of environmental innovations — An empirical approach

This paper presents an agent-based model of the diffusion of water-saving innovations. The empirical foundation of this model is a study, which was carried out for that specific purpose. As an example case, the diffusion of three water-related innovations in Southern Germany was chosen. The model represents a real geographic area and simulates the diffusion of showerheads, toilet flushes, and rain-harvesting systems. Agents are households of certain lifestyles, as represented by the Sinus-Milieus® from commercial marketing. Agents use two different kinds of decision rules to decide upon adoption or rejection of the modeled innovations: A cognitively demanding deliberate decision rule and a very simple decision heuristic. Thus, the model integrates concepts of bounded rationality. The overall framework for decision-making is the Theory of Planned Behavior, which has been elaborated using innovation characteristics from diffusion research. The model was calibrated with empirical data stemming from a questionnaire survey and validated against independent data. Scenarios for the nearer future show that water-saving innovations will diffuse even without further promotion, and different promotion strategies that relate specifically to both innovations and lifestyles can be pointed out.     

Technological versus Pecuniary External Economies: The Former Should Rule the Roost

The paper endeavors to illustrate that though the existing literature emphasizes the dynamic role of Scitovskian pecuniary external economies to account for the growth of innovations, highlighting particular types of market interdependence, such interdependencies can just highlight quasi-rent-led static adjustments that do not ensure an endogenous growth of innovations; the possibility of the growth of innovations remains exogenous. In this context, the present paper highlights the importance of division of labor-led dynamic technological external economies that ensures the endogenous growth of innovations, underlining the need of reinterpretation of Allyn Young in a broader Kaldorian-Keynesian perspective. In this perspective, finance-led investment in more productive opportunities not only supports increases in market size but also begets further investment in (still) more productive opportunities. This understanding provides a more dynamic conceptualization of Keynesian pecuniary external economies that are driven by Youngian technological external economies.     

Possible suboptimal diffusions of technological innovations in clustered scale-free networks

Many inter-firm networks take a skewed power-law- or scale-free distribution in which one or a few central actors are connected to numerous peripheral actors. Research argues that central actors can act as early adopters and catalysts for the adoption of technological innovations, but studies are inconclusive regarding central actors’ de facto role in this matter. Peripheral actors in scale-free networks tend to cluster, which implies that they are structurally embedded and mutually dependent. A major thesis in this paper is that clustered peripheral actors in scale-free networks may restrict central actors’ propensity to adopt innovations, and as a result impede their diffusion. The paper discusses which implications this may have for stakeholders in the private and public sector domain and practitioners of strategic management.     

Strategic niche management: towards a policy tool for sustainable development

Strategic niche management (SNM) is a recently developed approach that could help induce a broad socio-technical transition towards more sustainable development. It is designed to facilitate the introduction and diffusion of new sustainable technologies through protected societal experiments in fields such wind energy, biogas, public transport systems, electric vehicle transport and eco-friendly food production. A major challenge in SNM concerns the processes by which such experiments can evolve into viable market niches and ultimately contribute to a broader shift towards sustainable development. This paper sheds more light on this issue by systematically consolidating the main SNM studies, and by bringing in new insights from the literature that is in some sense complementary to SNM. These are studies on the development and commercialisation of radical innovations in large companies, and literature about infant industry protection and broader industrialisation processes in developing countries. A number of suggestions for implementing SNM are given.     

The diffusion of mobile telephony in Italy and the UK: an empirical investigation

Since its appearance mobile telephony has shown a remarkably fast diffusion pattern in most advanced countries. This paper investigates technological and economic factors that have influenced the diffusion process of cellular phones, in particular the diffusion speed and the upper limit. The epidemic model widely used in diffusion studies is summarised and discussed highlighting the evolutionary disequilibrium nature of diffusion processes. Moreover, the econometric specification of some of the models distinguishes between long-run relationships and short-run adjustments to a continuously evolving pattern. We find that the new digital technology, which coincides with increased competition in both Italy and the UK, has made the process faster and increased the saturation level in Italy, but not in the UK; in Italy only the decreasing price of the handset has affected the diffusion process, whereas we find that, in addition to that, decreasing tariffs and increasing consumption expenditures have been significant in shaping the diffusion process of mobile telephony in the UK.     

Does Technological Innovation Really Reduce Marginal Abatement Costs? Some Theory,Algebraic Evidence,and Policy Implications

The existing literature models innovation in pollution control as a reduction in marginal abatement costs. We show that this assumption is inappropriate for production process innovations such as fuel switching. Algebraically, we examine the effects of different innovation types on marginal abatement cost curves, showing that some desirable innovations increase marginal abatement costs. Empirically, we estimate marginal abatement costs for sulfur dioxide by measuring the output distance function for electric power in Korea. Regression results confirm that production process innovations did raise marginal abatement costs in this case. One policy implication: economic instruments do not always provide stronger innovation incentives than command-and-control policies.      

The adoption of Web 2.0 services: An empirical investigation

The paper investigates the factors associated with the intensity of use of three Web 2.0 services - video sharing, social networking and social bookmarking - by looking at the users' characteristics and at the technological features. It relies upon a theoretical framework that combines the diffusion of innovation model with the technology acceptance model. However, it goes beyond them by focusing not simply on the determinants of adoption, but on the determinants of the intensity of use, and by introducing variables related to the social influence. The empirical analysis is based upon a survey of 300 users of Web 2.0 services. We find that the compatibility with users' needs and behaviours plays an important role for the intensity of usage of both video sharing and social networking services, while the ease of use positively affects the intensity of usage of social networking services, but has a negative effect on the intensity of usage of video sharing services. Extrinsic job-related motivations are important drivers of the intensive usage of social bookmarking and social networking services, while sharing contents is relevant for video sharing and social networking services. Finally, individual characteristics such as age, education and IT endowment also play an important role.     

Diffusion of innovations in globally stable Walrasian equilibrium

When all products in the economy are weak gross substitutes, preferences are homothetic, and firms face menu costs then all prices in an industry move together at the same rate. In the closed-loop Nash noncooperative equilibrium, all firms invest in productivity and reduce real prices. As a result, in the case of quadratic menu costs, the outputs of industries and the economy go up along S-shaped time paths characteristic of diffusion of innovations.     

Technological change in niches: Auxiliary Power Units and the hydrogen economy

In studies of large scale systems innovations or technological transitions, niches have been given a prominent role as incubators for the seeds of future technological systems. It is often argued that immature technologies rely on niches for their development, before they are able to compete in mainstream markets. This paper combines insights from economic theory and from technology studies to formulate a framework for understanding the dynamics of technological change in niches, and applies this framework to the case of fuel cell Auxiliary Power Units (APUs). We conclude that the choice of technology for APUs will be of critical importance in determining the role this market could have in shaping future developments in hydrogen and fuel cells. However, a number of factors are not strictly dependent on the technology used in fuel cell APUs. These comprise factors influencing external economies of scale, network effects, the behaviour of users and expectations.     

A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations

Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator-prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism.Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations and, on the basis of an application of Lotka-Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile Internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit.Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka-Volterra equations leading to expected orbit.     

Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use,impacts and the role of institutional context factors

Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making. While methodological approaches are well covered in the academic literature, less attention has been paid to studying the use, impacts and effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making. This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature, our preliminary findings highlight that scenario planning still is often executed in a rather ad-hoc and isolated manner and is mostly geared towards indirect decision support such as agenda-setting and issue-framing. The slim evidence base aggravates the assessment, but the potential of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized. Political and institutional context factors need to be treated with greater care in the future. Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty does not only require rigorous analysis, but also political will and more stable institutional settings and organisational capacities to build up trust and experience with adaptive, flexible process formats. We synthesize our analysis with a discussion of further research needs.     

Using cellular automata to simulate electronic commerce receptivity in small organisations

The focus of the research is to study the dynamics of electronic commerce propagation caused by organisational characteristics in small organisations. A model of opinion dynamics and verbalisation process for studying the receptivity of electronic commerce in small organisations in Slovenia is proposed. The methodology is based on cellular automata approach, diffusion theory, small organisations characteristics and studies on factors affecting electronic commerce introduction and usage in small organisations. The decision of an organisation whether to adopt electronic commerce or not is based on its attitude towards electronic commerce and impressions gathered from interactions with other organisations. Different characteristics of organisations were defined according to the data gathered by interviews and a survey. Several types of electronic commerce diffusion dynamics are evident from the data gathered. The most likely scenario of electronic commerce diffusion among small organizations in Slovenia predicts a decrease in organizations that are less mature in e-commerce and the increase in more mature organizations by 6-8% by the end of year 2006.     

网络环境下高校图书馆服务模式创新

随着计算机网络的快速发展，传统的图书馆服务模式面临很大冲击。本文分析了高校图书馆的传统服务模式以及在网络环境下图书馆服务模式的转变问题，并在此基础上对高校图书馆服务模式的创新进行探讨，意在使图书情报人员转变传统观念，形成全新的市场观念的思维模式。