Developing a model to evaluate the impacts of science,technology and innovation foresight on policy-making

Technology foresight as a policy intelligence tool can offer vital inputs for policy-making in various domains. The relationship between foresight and policy-making has been presented in the literature by the policy-related functions of foresight, but the literature reflects a theoretical gap with the systematic evaluation model for the impact of foresight on policy-making. This research seeks to bridge the existing gap and uses the mixed method for this purpose. The mixed method approach used in this paper is the sequential exploratory design. First, the conceptual model is developed in the qualitative part of this research by using meta-synthesis and constant comparative method (CCM) of analysis. Second, in the quantitative part, quantitative tests are used to evaluate the dimensions and components of the developed theoretical model. The data collection tool is a questionnaire. The results confirm the proposed dimensions of the evaluation model.     

Strategic niche management: towards a policy tool for sustainable development

Strategic niche management (SNM) is a recently developed approach that could help induce a broad socio-technical transition towards more sustainable development. It is designed to facilitate the introduction and diffusion of new sustainable technologies through protected societal experiments in fields such wind energy, biogas, public transport systems, electric vehicle transport and eco-friendly food production. A major challenge in SNM concerns the processes by which such experiments can evolve into viable market niches and ultimately contribute to a broader shift towards sustainable development. This paper sheds more light on this issue by systematically consolidating the main SNM studies, and by bringing in new insights from the literature that is in some sense complementary to SNM. These are studies on the development and commercialisation of radical innovations in large companies, and literature about infant industry protection and broader industrialisation processes in developing countries. A number of suggestions for implementing SNM are given.     

Information structure and coordination in technology policy

The main purpose of our paper is to present a model which allows a comparison of different types of technology policies to be made. It appears that there is a kind of model which is appropriate to that purpose but which belongs to the theory of the firm. Indeed, one of the characteristics of technology policies is the degree of centralization of decision; as it is in the design of firm organization. It seems that a model like AOKI's (1986) presents sufficient properties to be used in our context. The aim of this exercise is to compare vertical and horizontal institutional frameworks for technology policies, more precisely diffusion and mission oriented policies. This framework will be applied to the case of some technology policies in the Federal Republic of Germany (before re-unification): programmes in production technologies and the Transrapid programme.Financial support by the E. C. for the SPES-project Comparative Economics of R & D: the case of France and Germany is gratefully acknowledged. We would like to thank all participants to the SPES-project (involving the Universities of Ausburg and Tübingen, the IFO Institute Munich, the CNRS teams LATAPSES in Nice and BETA in Strasbourg and the Ecole Centrale Paris) for helpful comments. We also profited from comments by A. Arundel, R. Cowan, P. A. David, C. Freeman and L. Soete, and by two anonymous referees. An initial version of this paper is published as Foray and Llerena, 1992.     

Interactive planning for strategy development in academic-based cooperative research enterprises

The evolution of strategic management concludes that formulation and implementation is an emergent process. In today's knowledge-based society this requires that managers develop more creative ways to align strategies with core competencies to maximise organisational performance and efficiencies. This paper evaluates the approach taken by a university-based research collaborative to illustrate an integrated planning process that supports strategic management in higher education environments. Utilising the concepts of road mapping and interactive planning, this case study provides insights into the participative approach used and provides a modification of several conceptual models to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of this process.     

农业技术推广在实际工作中存在的问题及对策

我国农业技术推广正处于转型突破的关键期,推广内容、方式滞后于农业科技的发展,与农民实际生产技术需求存在矛盾,人员队伍建设和考核激励机制的落后阻碍了推广事业的前行。因此,当前工作应该重视推广观念的转变,重塑认识,创新奖惩机制,抓效率、重评价,调动推广人员的工作积极性,重视农民的主体地位和参与权,让农业技术推广的重要性深入社会人心,推动农业转型发展。     

Power-by-the-hour: the role of technology in reshaping business strategy at Rolls-Royce

There is a recognised trend of manufacturing companies offering not only products, but also services and even complete solutions to business problems. Research has highlighted economic, market demand and competitiveness factors as responsible for the reshaping of business strategies that this has involved. This study analyses the extent to which another factor, technology, has been a significant factor in the switch from product oriented to service-oriented strategies. A case study of the aero engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce is used to analyse the impact of technology, which is found to have led manufacturers to reshape their business strategies. The study finds that developments in one technology in particular, namely digital electronics, have been a powerful enabling factor facilitating the implementation of service strategies. This provided original equipment manufacturers like Rolls-Royce with a competitive advantage relative to conventional service providers, by enabling them to acquire new knowledge management capabilities.     

Biotechnology as a low-level-of-coherence policy priority: effectual-targeting and the need for learning and experimentation capabilities

During the last two decades, policymakers in various positions have been adopting a systems-approach to policy thinking. However, in contrast with the quasi-evolutionary way in which policy is thought of and conceptualised it seems that policy doing is still being guided by ‘market-failure’ justifications causing actual policies to remain narrow in their scope. In this paper we sidestep this analytical divide of thinking/doing by developing a co-evolutionary framework that utilises a more productive analytical divide of means/ends. That is to say we focus on a process of co-evolution of a higher-order, one which takes place ‘inside’ the agent of policy herself, and involves changes in the ways ‘means’ and ‘ends’ are understood and acted upon. Conceptualising policy problems in terms of means/ends contributes to current debates by rendering the difficulty that countries are facing in their attempts to prioritise biotechnology more intelligible and thus manageable.     

Smart,connected products change a company’s business strategy orientation

Smart, connected products have the potential to shift rivalries, opening up numerous new avenues for differentiation and value-added services. New entrants in a smart, connected world face significant new obstacles, starting with the high fixed costs of a more complex product design, embedded technology and multiple layers of new IT infrastructure. As smart, connected products expand an industry’s scope and the boundaries of competition, many companies will need to rethink their corporate purpose. As products continue to communicate and collaborate in networks, which are continuously expanding both in number and diversity, many companies will have to re-examine their core mission and value proposition. The authors present an analysis of changes that were initiated by applying new of smart and connected product technologies during creative discussions about disruptive innovation development. The objective of the article is to seek answers to the following research questions: Q 1: What is the role and significance of the new concept of products obtained as a result of substantial innovations? Q 2: How does the new concept of products impact the entrepreneurial strategy of organizations? Q 3: Does this concept trigger a change to the rules of competition?     

Innovation management tools: implementing technology watch as a routine for adaptation

Innovation management (IM) is a multidisciplinary field which has been growing for the past few decades. However, the management of innovation is often considered equivalent to technology management or the management of research and development. By focusing on a set of small- and medium-sized enterprises operating in a medium-high-tech industry, the paper intends to determine the characteristics of IM tools. In particular, we address one of these tools, technology watch (TW), and define a set of generic stages to introduce the most relevant roles for its implementation. TW consists of the systematic observation, analysis and use of technological information, allowing companies to be aware of their external environment and learn from it. Through the implementation of TW processes, companies are able to assess and adapt their current technological base and the fit of their internal competences to the signals coming from the external environment.     

Technology diffusion theory revisited: a regulation,environment, strategy,technology model for technology activation analysis of mobile ICT

Theory on the diffusion of mobile information and communication technology (ICT) is mainly focused on technology diffusion, while prerequisites to such diffusion are largely disregarded or taken for granted. Moreover, few constructs for the assessment of technology diffusion take into account the inherent link between technology and strategy analysis. This study proposes that analysing what comes prior to diffusion and use of technology – here defined as ‘technology activation’ – is equally important, so as to identify external, not user-related determinants that enable or hinder a value proposition based on the new technology. To fill the existing gap and extend technology diffusion theory upstream, the limitations of the technology–organisation–environment model and of other technology diffusion models are reviewed, together with external strategy analysis models, and an original model is proposed to address four macro-determinants that affect technology activation: Regulation, environment, strategy, technology (REST). The REST model is then applied to the Italian mobile location-based services market, to qualitatively validate its comprehensiveness. Conclusions are drawn on the opportunities to extend the mobile technology diffusion analysis process upstream, and to integrate technology analysis with existing research on strategy analysis, thus providing new momentum to mainstream research on innovation diffusion.     

The evolution and use of a policy and research tool: assessing the technological capabilities of firms

Firms differ widely in their technological capabilities. Innovation policies are likely to be more or less successful depending upon the level of such abilities of those firms to which a policy is aimed. Without data on the proficiencies, strengths and weaknesses of firms within the target group(s), the construction and application of innovation or industrial policies are likely to miss salient factors in the ability of firms to benefit from the support that is intended. An in-depth knowledge of firms’ capabilities can allow policy-makers to target support according to the specific needs of firms. This paper describes the Technology capability audit tool (or CAT) that was designed to assist policy-makers in differentiating between firms and in understanding their level of ‘innovation readiness’. Examples of the use of the CAT are presented from South Korea, Thailand, Ireland, Brazil and the UK.     

The complexities of corporate science and technology development: the triple uncertainty analytical framework

In this paper, we introduce an analytical framework – called the Triple Uncertainty (TU) – that casts strong doubt on both the existence of a linear path leading to organisational innovation and the alleged accuracy of most R&D performance metrics. This framework, grounded on both the analysis of field-data and actor-network theory underpinnings, emphasises the importance of a series of uncertainties that pervade the management of techno-scientific projects. According to the TU framework, the management of techno-scientific projects hinges on the choice of mode of organisational coordination. To illustrate this thesis, we analyse in this paper the managerial complexities of a techno-scientific R&D project at Tenaris (a world-leading manufacturer of steel-tubes) whose intended outcome is a computer simulation of a critical industrial process.     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

强度与指向：政府支持企业创新发展的注意力研究——基于中央科技政策文本的分析

政府支持企业创新发展的注意力变化及其分配对我国企业的创新发展具有重要的意义,而当前学界缺乏对此问题的深入探索。本文主要采用ROST CM 6.0软件对1983—2019年中央科技政策文本进行分析,总结提炼了此时期内中央政府支持企业创新发展的注意力强度与指向变化。结果表明：(1)中央政府支持企业创新发展的注意力强度经历了从“波动上升”到“相对稳定”的变化过程;(2)中央政府支持企业创新发展的施政重心经历了从“增强企业活力”到“创新驱动发展”的变化历程,不同时期中央政府对支持企业创新发展的认知以及需求存在差异,中央对支持企业创新发展的总体认知也在不断深化。(3)中央政府支持企业创新发展的注意力指向发生了明显转移,技术发展实现了从“重引进学习”到“创新驱动发展”的战略转型,制度建设则朝着从“重管理”到“重服务”的方向转变,体现了政府在“瘦身”的同时,为企业创新发展“放水养鱼”。     

基于多中心治理理论的农业科技创新

我国提出的建设社会主义新农村,实现城乡统筹发展是一项长期而艰巨的社会系统性工程,以科技创新作为重要推动的手段,将成为农业发展的根本出路。但农业科技创新也需要有新的治理模式,传统的以城市政府为中心的单中心治理模式由于其内在的制度性缺陷严重影响了科技长入经济的进程。城市、农村以及各级政府、市场和城乡社会三维框架下的多中心治理模式打破了单中心制度安排中最高权威单一性的权力格局,由多个相对独立的发展主体构成的治理网络承担起了农业科技创新区域内的管理和服务职责,并显示出一定的优势。应通过借鉴多中心治理理论中的合理内核,通过构建一种政府引导、市场运作、农民为主、社会参与的＂多元共治＂模式,来推动农业科技创新的顺利进行。     

Nonlinear dynamism of innovation and business cycles

The aim of this paper is to describe the nonlinear dynamism of innovation and to clarify the role of innovation for economic development in terms of Kondratiev business cycles, especially the causal relation of the bubble economy and depressions with innovations. Any paradigm of technological innovation develops within a definite time span reaching maturity. This nonlinear nature clarifies many characteristic features of innovation. Schumpeters innovation theory on business cycles is examined through this dynamism. Trunk innovation is defined as that which plays a decisive role in building infrastructures and inducing subsequent innovations. Every innovation has its own technological development period just before the innovation diffusion. The emergence of new markets can be estimated by chasing the ongoing technologies.JEL Classification: E32, L16, O11, O14, O30Paper presented at the 9th Conference of the International J.A. Schumpeter Society, Gainesville, Florida, USA.Previous affiliation was Ryutsu Kagaku University, Faculty of Information Science, Kobe, Japan.     

既要绿水青山，也要金山银山：企业环保负担的弱化机制与实证检验

环境规制既能促使工业企业增加环保投入,也会加重其财务负担.制定合理的产业政策,弱化环保投入造成的财务负担,是科学处理环境保护与企业发展关系的关键.本文从源头端政府创新激励与末端产业化环保治理两个维度,讨论企业环保负担的弱化机制及国有企业的异质性,并手动收集A股制造业上市企业样本数据进行实证检验.结果表明,源头端技术创新激励及利用专业企业进行末端产业化环保治理两种机制能够缓解环保投入给企业财务造成的压力,但机制的有效性存在一定条件约束.国有企业的政策工具属性,会弱化源头端创新机制的激励效果.政府为发挥国企的环保示范作用,可能造成国企的末端环保投入过大,降低末端产业化治理的效率.随着更严厉的环保法规出台,地方政府可能给予企业过度的环保激励,进而降低产业化治理的收益.     

大庆市科技创新服务体系规划研究

分析了大庆市科技创新服务现状和存在的问题,提出了科技创新服务体系的规划应包括3个方面,即区域分布规划、组织功能规划和信息网络规划,并以大庆市为例,说明了3项规划的具体实施思路和做法。     

我国中小企业可持续发展研究--中小企业研发战略联盟的构建与应用

R&D strategic alliance is important for enterprises' sustainable development and it is a worth research for us.This paper firstly analyzes the condition and situation of the small and medium-sized enterprises' strategic alliance. Then it points out that the small and medium-sized enterprises should choose a suitable alliance organization, ally themselves with big enterprises, strive for the support of the government, and develop their technology through technology unions. Finally, it suggests that the government should create better innovation environment for R&D strategic alliance. A new way is also put forward for the application and foundation of the small and medium-sized enterprises' R&D strategic alliance in China. It is also helpful for the sustainable development of small and medium-sized enterprises.