The Impact of Modelling and Simulation Technology on Engineering Problem Solving

The paper focuses on the use of modelling and simulation technology in the design and development of engineering projects. Using case studies, the authors examine the experiences of engineers and designers working with these tools. The paper provides insights into how this technology is reshaping the way engineers work and solve problems. Engineering design remains a highly uncertain activity and the costs of failure can be high. It was found that the use of modelling and simulation helps engineers to better understand physical properties and behaviour—quickly, cheaply and accurately—before they construct artefacts and systems. Such tools can help engineers 'learn-before-doing' and experiment with the integration of different technologies and components. Modelling and simulation helps build the 'design conversation' between contributors to an engineering project, including customers and regulators. It provides opportunities for feedback and learning and can promote open, interdisciplinary and collaborative working styles. These findings are related to existing literature on problem solving in engineering design and a future research agenda is proposed that examines the opportunities for and limitations of these technologies.     

‘The Navigator Network’: a New Zealand futurewatch case study

New Zealand's ‘Navigator Network’ is a national scanning network of scientists and policy analysts providing ‘early alert’ advice about emerging areas of science and technology. It was established by the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology (MoRST) to enhance the government's readiness to respond to the opportunities and risks around new technologies, particularly in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The Navigator Network has been tailored to the New Zealand context, which is characterised by a small, well-connected government sector and a strong focus on agricultural biotechnology and food. The network builds on these features, and is ‘people-centric’ rather than ‘information-centric’, using dialogic approaches to generate new knowledge between diverse stakeholder groups. It also focuses on building futures capability in the government and science sectors. Representatives from government agencies are integrated into the process as scanners to facilitate uptake. It also has an adaptive development process via an action learning component.     

Technology and globalization: the european payments system as a case of non-globalization

This paper shows that in the design of European EFTPOS payment networks the dominant influences on network design were national; these included national banking industry structures, regulatory regimes, retail industry structures and cultural attitudes to debt. There was no sign of the technology itself driving globalization—on the country, the network technology is ‘configurable’ and appears subject to shaping by many distrinct national–social contexts. Where there was some movement to ‘globalization’, understand as a process of standarization of the service provided through the technology acros national frontiers, it derived from the explicit social objectives of the European Commission and was not an inevitable result of the ‘technology’ itself. The argument is widened to show that much of the evidence for the overall ‘trend’ to globalization may be reinterpreted as the result of a process of ‘industrialization’ in certain parts of the world. In conclusion, the very existence of the assumed ‘trend’ to globalization may be questioned, while technology does not ‘drive’ globalization, but may be ‘shaped’ by social agencies like the European Commission that have an interest in fostering its own versions of the globalization process.     

The prospects for a hydrogen economy (1): hydrogen futures

Common to all discussions and projections of ‘a hydrogen economy’ is the widespread use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. Such use requires the development and application of a range of different technologies, some similar to and some quite different from those in common use in current energy systems. This paper starts by briefly introducing and describing the physical characteristics, economics and functionality of these technologies, before discussing some of the hydrogen futures that have been proposed, and the great improvements to the technologies which will be required before they become competitive with alternative means of delivering the same energy service. Technology cost estimates are then used to explore through the use of formal modelling techniques some of the futures scenarios.     

The improvement trajectory of PCR DNA replication and ERP software as general purpose technologies: an exploratory study of ‘anchor technologies’

As an effort to peek into the black box of large-scale general purpose technologies (GPTs) like biotechnology and information technology, we develop the concept of ‘anchor technologies’. An anchor technology is a core technology of a large-scale GPT (‘mega-GPT’) that opens a new era in the development and diffusion of the mega-GPT. We trace the historical evolution of two process-based, yet otherwise very different, anchor technologies: enterprise resource planning (ERP) software within the mega-GPT of information technology and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) DNA replication within the mega-GPT of biotechnology. The case studies reveal the utility of ‘productisation’ as an important means of commercialising innovations in anchor technologies; more generally, the interplay between improvement in process-based technologies and in complementary product-based technologies provides insight into how ERP and PCR were able to sustain a path of continued improvement within their respective mega-GPT.     

A look into the future of wireless mobile communication technologies

The number of wireless mobile communication service subscribers reached 4.6 billion worldwide in 2009, and mobile revenues are expected to be over US$1 trillion around 2012 according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). A significant number of studies have been made to forecast the growing market and evaluate the new generation technology, the ‘beyond 3rd generation’ (B3G). However, there is no study that forecasts when any of these new technologies will be commercialised. This paper presents a technical framework for forecasting the commercialisation timeline of B3G technologies and provides insight on technology trajectories from 1G to 4G. The results show that a combination of technical parameters can explain heterogeneous wireless mobile communication technologies. Three parameters selected include channel bandwidth, channel bit rate and data capacity for technical framework.     

Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis

It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.     

Technological upgrading in Taiwan's TFT-LCD industry: signs of a deeper absorptive capacity?

Firms from several advanced developing countries have successfully upgraded to higher levels of capability and competitiveness on the international stage. This study explores how leading Taiwanese latecomer firms acquired strong capabilities in the display (thin film transistor-liquid crystal display, TFT-LCD) industry. We identify how these firms acquired the technology base to catch up rapidly and move from one set of advanced products and technologies to another, focusing on both the accumulation of technological capabilities and the underlying absorptive capacity of each firm. Empirically, we distinguish three phases of capability building, namely pre-entry, entry, and innovation and diversification. Theoretically, we suggest that the notion of ‘latecomer’ absorptive capacity, centred on engineering and design rather than R&D, might explain both the rapidity of recent technological catch up and the diversification across products and technologies as latecomer firms approach the technology frontier.     

Internal And External Adjustment To New Technologies

Schumpeterian creative destruction occurs not only at the industry level, but also with each firm trying to maintain or improve its position in the technology race. Based on a rich data set on more than 4,000 German business units, this paper shows that the simultaneous occurrence of hiring and separations is more likely in firms with the most advanced technologies in use than in units more distant from the technological frontier. This positive relation between technological advance and creative destruction documented also by churning and ‘excess job reallocation equations - holds particularly in recovery years, while it is weak during a recession. The explanation provided for this finding in the paper is that firms can also improve technologies by upgrading machinery and/or retraining workers, and these ‘implementation’ costs arc likely to be lower during economic downturns.     

Learning pathways for energy supply technologies: Bridging between innovation studies and learning rates

Understanding and supporting learning for different emerging low carbon energy supply technology fields is a key issue for policymakers, investors and researchers. A range of contrasting analytical approaches are available: energy system modelling using learning rates provides abstracted, quantitative and output oriented accounts, while innovation studies research offers contextualised, qualitative and process oriented accounts. Drawing on research literature and expert consultation on learning for several different emerging energy supply technologies, this paper introduces a ‘learning pathways’ matrix to help bridge between the rich contextualisation of innovation studies and the systematic comparability of learning rates. The learning pathways matrix characterises technology fields by their relative orientation to radical or incremental innovation, and to concentrated or distributed organisation. A number of archetypal learning pathways are outlined to help learning rates analyses draw on innovation studies research, so as to better acknowledge the different niche origins and learning dynamics of emerging energy supply technologies. Finally, a future research agenda is outlined, based on socio-technical learning scenarios for accelerated energy innovation.     

Fitting Standard Software Packages to Non-standard Organizations: The ‘Biography’ of an Enterprise-wide System

This paper investigates the development and implementation of a generic off-the-shelf computer package and the competing pressures for standardization and differentiation as this package is made to fit new organizational settings. The particular focus is on an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system and its application within universities. In order for the ERP system to fit this setting a new module called ‘Campus’ is being developed. We followed the module as the current ‘generic user’ embodied in the software was translated to a more ‘specific user’ (a number of universities piloting the module) and back once again to a generic form of university user (the potential ‘global university marketplace’). We develop the notion that these systems have a ‘biography’, which helps us to analyse the evolution of software along its life cycle and provides insights into the different dynamics at play as Campus is translated for use in a number of institutions and countries. The study draws on over three years of ethnographic research conducted in a British University and a major ERP Supplier.     

A technology opportunities analysis model: applied to dye-sensitised solar cells for China

Technology opportunities analysis (TOA) can support policy-makers or managers in making strategic technical decisions so as to enhance their technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. This paper presents a multi-level framework to support and systematically identify technological opportunities. Patent data as a key component of technology innovation are used to enable TOA within the framework in the present research. At the research and development (R&D) level, we anticipate the directions of technology development based on technology morphology. Countries’ development emphases can also be investigated in order to help identify their R&D strengths and weaknesses and to seek promising development pathways. At the level of competition, we devise the assignee-technology analysis to obtain insight into competitive participants’ technical emphases and intents. It is also used to explore possible collaboration opportunities among them. At the market level, we apply patent family analysis to understand countries’ target markets and to assess prospects for the commercialisation of their technology. We pursue TOA to explore China's opportunities and challenges in dye-sensitised solar cells. The empirical case analysis supports the effectiveness of the TOA model. We believe it can be adapted well to fit other emerging technologies.     

TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND THE SKILL MIX OF US MANUFACTURING PLANTS

This paper examines the relationship between technology adoption and the skill mix of the workforce in US manufacturing plants. Using information on the use and adoption of seven different information technologies, we find that the relationship between technology adoption and workforce skill varies across the technologies. The use and adoption of engineering and design tasks are associated with workplaces that have a relatively large share of nonproduction labor. When we examine the relationship between technology adoption and skill upgrading of workforces, we find little correlation between the use and/or adoption of technologies and changes in workforce skill at the plant level. However, we do find that plants adopting technologies related to engineering and design tasks grow faster over the period 1987–1997.     

THE CHANGING GOVERNANCE OF KNOWLEDGE IN AVIONICS

Abstract

Taking in hand the two sides (i.e. cognitive and risk-bearing) of authority in design and production in complex tasks, this paper aims to give a first look at shifts in the locus of authority in the aviation electronics—or avionics—industry. Relying on patent and joint ventures data, we attempt to trace the evolution of problem-solving ‘authority’ over the evolution of the industry, using an empirical approach which can then be used to explore similar trends in other industries. We find that while it is still too early to say whether we are observing a wholesale shift of ‘authority’ from aircraft makers to avionics producers, it is clear that the leading avionics producers are challenging their clients in taking the role of systems integrators. We can speculate that we may be observing the beginning of a ‘market for technology’. At the very least, we are observing an increasing distribution of both problem-solving authority and risk in this industry.     

Firm size,credit scoring accuracy and banks’ production of soft information

Research on SME bank financing generally assumes that smaller firms are more opaque from a lender’s perspective. We propose that the discriminatory power of credit scoring models can be thought of as a proxy for firm opaqueness, given that when these models perform poorly, lenders must invest in the production of ‘soft information’ to supplement the financial data used in these models. Measuring the discriminatory power of probit default models across quintiles of the Irish SME size distribution, we show that our proxy for firm opaqueness increases monotonically as firms get smaller. This finding supports an assumption that is the starting point to a wide strand of literature on SME bank financing. Our findings can also be interpreted as providing an insight to the literature on the determinants of banks’ choice of lending technology. While smaller banks may, as found in a substantial previous literature, produce larger amounts of ‘soft information’ due to their organizational advantages, they may also do so out of necessity: hard-information-based default modelling is less effective among smaller firms, thereby forcing banks that lend to these borrowers to invest more in relationship banking technologies to retain competitiveness.     

On the diffusion of toilets as bottom of the pyramid innovation: Lessons from sanitation entrepreneurs

There is an emerging body of literature on product innovations for the poor at the bottom of the income pyramid. However, there is little on why delivery systems succeed or fail in this context and the present paper attempts to fill this void by examining why and how sanitation entrepreneurs are succeeding in India to diffuse toilets — an innovation for rural households, which never had access to one before. The literature is analyzed and confronted with the actual field practices. We demonstrate that the common thread that unifies progressive sanitation entrepreneurs is their adoption of a ‘market based approach’. There are market failures stemming from the demand side due to problems in expression of demand and its mismatch with the perceived value of the innovation. In response, sanitation entrepreneurs go beyond the standard linear model of assessing need and appropriateness of technology. They create innovations in ‘technological design’ as well as in the ‘delivery platforms’ to include practices for ‘accompaniment’, ‘sustainable maintenance’ and ‘generation of knowledge'. Thus, they make-up for sluggish or missing markets and informational asymmetries to ensure sustained use of toilets.     

Next generation entrepreneur: innovation strategy through Web 2.0 technologies in SMEs

This essay studies the diffusion/adoption of Web 2.0 technologies in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs)’ innovation strategies and particularly in research, development, design and other innovation activities. It looks at the effects of these technologies on the evolution and the dynamics of firm's innovation capabilities and the implications of entrepreneurial turnover on the adoption of said technologies. The study is based on original fieldwork with some 130 SMEs. The author finds that a consistent share of SMEs is actively trying to fill the knowledge gap and integrate Web 2.0 technologies in their innovation strategies. SMEs are managing this integration by progressively adjusting their behaviour in reaction to the opportunities offered by the technology and balancing the dependence of the business from the web. Barriers to the adoption of such technologies are also discussed.     

The Early Careers Of Engineers And The Accumulation Of Skills In The Canadian Economy

In this paper we use world cycling records to study the pattern of technological development of the track bicycle. We find that there is a strong evidence of ‘contagious’ effects among cycling records which in turn provides indirect evidence of ‘contagious’ effects among technological innovations. Interestingly, the ‘contagiousness’ of records is not a salient characteristic of track and field competitions where, arguably, technology plays a smaller role.     

Effects of re-invention on industry growth and productivity: evidence from steel refining technology in Japan, 1957–1968

This paper examines the economic impact of re-invention – the degree to which an innovation is modified by user – on industry growth and productivity. The paper focuses on two re-inventions made by a Japanese steel company; these inventions improved the productive efficiency of Austrian-made refining technology, namely basic oxygen furnace (BOF). Results obtained from the plant-level production function estimation indicate that re-inventions account for approximately 30% of the total factor productivity of the BOF, substantially promoting the dissemination of the BOF technology. Our simulation analysis indeed reveals that re-inventions contributed to steel output growth by about 14%. This paper also documents that innovating companies played the role of a ‘lead user’ in developing and disseminating their re-invented technologies.     

Corporate crime and the ‘Management’ of major hazards

This article is concerned with criminal activity in the context of the regulation of occupational safety and health; within this general concern is a more specific focus upon corporate crime, in the context of the management of major hazards. The article begins by, developing the argument that safety violations are indeed crimes, and ought to be treated as such. This leads on to a more general definitional discussion of the nature of corporate crime. The article then addresses the ‘production’ of

corporate crime in the context of the management of major hazards, This consideration begins by noting the principles of ‘effective’—and hy implication lawful—safety management, before going on to discuss briefly the findings of case studies on the management of safety in contexts characterized by the operation of hazardous technologies. It is concluded that the management and organization ofsafep in these contexts might be labelled ‘criminogenic’; a conclusion challenging arguments for increased self-regulation in the organization of safety in such contexts. More generally, it reinforces the claim that we need to consider hazardous technologies and their organizational and managerial contexts in terns of the possible production of safety crimes.