Emerging technologies in emerging markets: Introduction to the special section

Emerging technologies have significant implications and profound consequences for firms, markets, government policy, and society as a whole. In emerging markets, however, social uncertainties are as important as technological and market uncertainties, and moreover are somewhat more complex. The papers in this special section offer views of how these important social uncertainties can be considered concurrently with technological and market uncertainties, particularly because they play a relatively larger role in emerging markets than in more advanced markets.     

The measurement of environmental economic inefficiency with pollution-generating technologies

This study introduces the measurement of environmental inefficiency from an economic perspective. We develop our proposal using the latest by-production models that consider two separate and parallel technologies: a standard technology generating good outputs, and a polluting technology for the by-production of bad outputs. While research into environmental inefficiency incorporating undesirable or bad outputs from a technological perspective is well established, no significant attempts have been made to extend it to the economic sphere. Based on the definition of net profits, we develop an economic inefficiency measure that accounts for suboptimal behavior in the form of foregone private revenue and environmental cost excess. We show that economic inefficiency can be consistently decomposed according to technical and allocative criteria, considering the two separate technologies and market prices, respectively. We illustrate the empirical implementation of our approach using a dataset on agriculture at the level of US states.     

The effect of reducing quantitative easing on emerging markets

On 22 May and 19 June 2013, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a reduction in the asset purchase programme of its quantitative easing policy. This article investigates the impact of this news on the currencies of emerging markets. Using event study methodology, our results report a global significant depreciation in the currencies of all emerging markets in our sample, but with different depreciation sizes from one market to another. To test whether the depreciation in currencies is driven by capital flow components, a regression analysis is performed. Inward FDI as well as outward FDI appear to have more explanatory power than inward and outward portfolio investment in explaining the impact. With the slowdown in asset purchases by the Fed, emerging countries have incurred large capital outflows from their markets to the US market, resulting in a drop in their currencies.     

新兴技术向战略性新兴产业演化中政府政策分析

战略性新兴产业的形成首先需要新兴技术的支撑,而新兴技术从形成到商业化都面临着巨大的不确定性。本文分析了新兴技术商业化中各个阶段的影响因素,阐述了政府政策的作用,提出政府在新兴技术商业化的不同阶段为有效促使新兴技术尽快向战略性新兴产业演化应采取的政策。     

Easing the assessment of emerging technologies in technology observatories. Findings about patterns of dissemination of emerging technologies on the internet

This paper considers the Web as a big data container that can be used by Technology Observatories and administrations to track emerging issues and more specifically emerging technologies. It considers information that is available on the Internet for free from different sources, and proposes a framework that can be useful to characterise them and to detect patterns of dissemination. This framework is made up of 30 metrics obtained from different kinds of sources (general web, patents, scholars?…). Some of them are obtained directly as the number of hits retrieved by queries on a search engine, and other ones calculated by means of ratios. This paper contains the development of a complete case that utilises this framework to characterise emerging technologies included in the well-known Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, in this case the 2015 release¹ and to analyze patterns of dissemination of these technologies on the Internet.     

A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

A look into the future of wireless mobile communication technologies

The number of wireless mobile communication service subscribers reached 4.6 billion worldwide in 2009, and mobile revenues are expected to be over US$1 trillion around 2012 according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). A significant number of studies have been made to forecast the growing market and evaluate the new generation technology, the ‘beyond 3rd generation’ (B3G). However, there is no study that forecasts when any of these new technologies will be commercialised. This paper presents a technical framework for forecasting the commercialisation timeline of B3G technologies and provides insight on technology trajectories from 1G to 4G. The results show that a combination of technical parameters can explain heterogeneous wireless mobile communication technologies. Three parameters selected include channel bandwidth, channel bit rate and data capacity for technical framework.     

基于社会网络视角的科研合作网络结构及特性分析——以战略性新兴产业领域为例

战略性新兴产业是近几年新出现的研究热点,对其科研合作网络的研究,有助于探究该领域的科研合作现状与发展趋势。基于社会网络分析方法,以中国知网(CNKI)作为数据来源,构建了战略性新兴产业领域作者合作网络、关键词共现网络、作者-关键词耦合网络及机构合作网络,对合作网络的结构及特性等进行了分析。结果表明:战略性新兴产业领域论文合著率基本呈上升趋势,但该领域整体合作仍较为松散,存在较多的小团体;合作网络具有小世界和无标度特性,具有较大影响力的节点作为合作网络的中心,影响着网络内的学术交流和科研工作的开展。     

新兴产业产生:识别、路径及驱动因素

从新兴产业产生的识别、路径、驱动因素以及不同路径下企业的异质性特征4个方面,梳理了新兴产业产生的相关研究。在此基础上,提出现有研究的局限性和后续研究方向。     

新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其特征研究

将技术预见的方法和思想运用于新兴技术产业化潜力评价与新兴技术选择中,建立了新兴技术产业化潜力评价指标体系。通过德尔菲问卷调查对28个奥运洁净能源专项项目技术的产业化潜力进行了实证研究,并根据新兴技术产业化潜力的大小将待评价技术分为两组,通过配对样本t检验对导致产业化潜力差异的新兴技术的技术特征、市场特征以及其他特征进行识别和研究,找出影响新兴技术产业化潜力的决定因素。结果表明:新兴技术的技术特征包括形成技术标准和成为主导技术两个子特征;市场特征和符合性特征是决定新兴技术产业化潜力的重要因素。在评价和选择新兴技术时,既要考虑新兴技术产业化潜力的综合评价结果,又要考虑影响新兴技术产业化潜力的重要特征,这样才能保证决策的科学性和准确性。     

The determinants of investment in information and communication technologies

In this paper, we assess the determinants of information and communication technology (ICT) investment at the macro-level, for a panel of 10 advanced countries, in the period 1992–2005. We investigate the idea that, since ICTs are general purpose technologies, the decision to invest in these technologies is strongly affected by the general business environment in which the investment takes place. The empirical results are consistent with this idea: facilitating factors such as changes in market regulation, amount of human capital, expenditure on R&D, and the share of the dynamic services sector in the economy, positively influence investment in ICT.     

Using Bibliometrics to Measure Firm Knowledge: An Analysis of the US Pharmaceutical Industry

A recent literature review highlighted the knowledge-based view as an important current theory in the strategic management area. The current paper utilizes that theory as the context for employing bibliometrics to uncover the publishing and patenting citation patterns in a group of twelve US pharmaceutical companies over a 13-year period. Our initial findings suggest that firms self-cite a great deal, and that they rely heavily on public science. In addition, we found that Merck and Co. is the most frequently cited company in both the science and technology areas, though somewhat less so in technology. The managerial implications, particularly from a knowledge perspective, are discussed as well as some suggestions for future research.     

新兴技术下的情景规划法及其应用

情节规划法不同于传统战略思维。在技术变革的不确定背景下,它是战略分析的有效工具。本文分析了情景规划法的理论来源、实施步骤及主要应用,并通过案例阐释了情景规划法对复杂环境下战略决策制定的作用。     

Unveiling the breakthrough potential of established technologies: an empirical investigation in the aerospace industry

The present article sheds new light on the role of established technologies as a driving force behind technological evolution, hence unveiling their breakthrough potential. Specifically, going against the conventional wisdom that only nascent technologies significantly shape future technological developments, we examine the likelihood that established technologies have to become breakthrough solutions. Furthermore, we also analyse if and how the breadth of knowledge base characterising those inventions influences this probability. Based on a sample of 21,000 patents belonging to the aerospace industry granted at the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), our results reveal that established technologies have an inverted U-shaped effect on the likelihood of becoming breakthroughs, and that such relationship is negatively influenced by a wide knowledge breadth.     

The Impact of Modelling and Simulation Technology on Engineering Problem Solving

The paper focuses on the use of modelling and simulation technology in the design and development of engineering projects. Using case studies, the authors examine the experiences of engineers and designers working with these tools. The paper provides insights into how this technology is reshaping the way engineers work and solve problems. Engineering design remains a highly uncertain activity and the costs of failure can be high. It was found that the use of modelling and simulation helps engineers to better understand physical properties and behaviour—quickly, cheaply and accurately—before they construct artefacts and systems. Such tools can help engineers ‘learn-before-doing’ and experiment with the integration of different technologies and components. Modelling and simulation helps build the ‘design conversation’ between contributors to an engineering project, including customers and regulators. It provides opportunities for feedback and learning and can promote open, interdisciplinary and collaborative working styles. These findings are related to existing literature on problem solving in engineering design and a future research agenda is proposed that examines the opportunities for and limitations of these technologies.     

高新技术向战略性新兴产业转化过程中的风险研究

使用定性分析方法将高新技术向战略性新兴产业转化的过程划分为四个阶段,研究了各阶段的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:在高新技术向战略性新兴产业转化的四个阶段中,依次存在的主要风险为技术风险、资金风险、资源调动风险和市场风险;由于各阶段的主要影响因素不同,因此每种风险的分布规律也不同。     

External Debt and Growth in Emerging Economies

The paper studies the relationship between external debt and economic growth in a panel of emerging countries. A number of economists have proposed different methods of analysing the nexus between economic growth and public debt. The paper investigates the debt-growth nexus using a linear and non-linear specification, employing a panel ARDL model on 13 emerging countries during the period 1990–2016. The results show that there is no robust effect of debt on economic growth in the long run; however in the short run, external debt is negatively and significantly correlated to economic growth.     

我国战略性新兴产业的选择与发展对策

大力发展战略性新兴产业是我国在后金融危机时期的战略性选择。发展战略性新兴产业,首先要根据产业创新力、产业引领力、产业持续力、产业聚集力、产业碳减力五力特征正确选择战略性新兴产业,其次要筑牢市场、科技、资本三大支撑力,最后要强化政策举措落实力,通过三方面的有机结合实现战略性新兴产业的良性发展。     

Context matters: How existing sectors and competing technologies affect the prospects of the Swiss Bio-SNG innovation system

Emerging technological fields are affected by developments in their broader context. This article proposes a differentiation of context structures as a crucial step in the analysis of technological innovation systems. A thorough context analysis, so the argument, is essential for understanding the pace and direction of technology development and the prospects of an emerging technological innovation system. Empirical insights are provided for Bio-SNG, a technology in an early stage of development. The article discusses the conditions under which actors from different sectors (forestry, wood industry, and energy supply) may play a role in the emerging field. It is shown that Bio-SNG is likely to become a victim of the recent boom in wood-to-energy technologies that has favored investments in more mature but technologically inferior alternatives. The case provides lessons for policy making as it highlights how effective support schemes might foster a lock-in into technologies that are readily available.     

马克思主义产生的主观条件探析

作为世界无产阶级科学理论的马克思主义之所以能够产生,除了当时历史境遇之下固然的客观条件之外,马克思和恩格斯所具备的多方面的主观条件也是不能忽视的重要因素。所以,于此,探析他们所具备的诸些主观因素,势必会有助于更加科学深入地理解马克思主义及其产生的历史必然性。