'The Navigator Network': a New Zealand futurewatch case study

New Zealand's 'Navigator Network' is a national scanning network of scientists and policy analysts providing 'early alert' advice about emerging areas of science and technology. It was established by the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology (MoRST) to enhance the government's readiness to respond to the opportunities and risks around new technologies, particularly in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The Navigator Network has been tailored to the New Zealand context, which is characterised by a small, well-connected government sector and a strong focus on agricultural biotechnology and food. The network builds on these features, and is 'people-centric' rather than 'information-centric', using dialogic approaches to generate new knowledge between diverse stakeholder groups. It also focuses on building futures capability in the government and science sectors. Representatives from government agencies are integrated into the process as scanners to facilitate uptake. It also has an adaptive development process via an action learning component.     

‘The Navigator Network’: a New Zealand futurewatch case study

New Zealand's ‘Navigator Network’ is a national scanning network of scientists and policy analysts providing ‘early alert’ advice about emerging areas of science and technology. It was established by the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology (MoRST) to enhance the government's readiness to respond to the opportunities and risks around new technologies, particularly in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The Navigator Network has been tailored to the New Zealand context, which is characterised by a small, well-connected government sector and a strong focus on agricultural biotechnology and food. The network builds on these features, and is ‘people-centric’ rather than ‘information-centric’, using dialogic approaches to generate new knowledge between diverse stakeholder groups. It also focuses on building futures capability in the government and science sectors. Representatives from government agencies are integrated into the process as scanners to facilitate uptake. It also has an adaptive development process via an action learning component.     

The Impact of Biotechnology Pervasiveness and User Heterogeneity on the Organization of Public Sector Research

What is the appropriate institutional set-up for knowledge generation and use in biotechnology? This paper contributes to the debate by addressing the combined--and potentially conflicting--influence, upon the definition of institutional policies and structures, of two of biotechnology's distinctive features. First, its science-based nature, which defines a set of requirements concerning the production of knowledge and the ability to use it; and second its wide applicability, which requires the consideration of the diversity of technological and organizational capabilities displayed by the whole range of potential biotechnology users. In particular the study investigates whether and to what extent institutional models, whose emergence was largely associated with the behaviour of advanced industrial users from science based sectors, are suitable to the requirements of a more heterogeneous set of biotechnology users, and therefore can withstand a variety of industrial specializations. This issue is addressed empirically by analysing the evolution of the scientific and technological infrastructure of Portuguese biotechnology, as well as the strategic positioning and actual behaviour of individual research and technology organizations. The paper discusses the effectiveness of the current institutional model in Portugal and the implications of a mismatch between biotechnology institutional research frameworks and the industrial structure, for organizations, individual researchers and firms.     

Knowledge characteristics and the dynamics of technological alliances in pharmaceuticals: empirical evidence from Europe,US and Japan

The paper investigates the co-evolutionary patterns of the dynamics of technological alliances and of the structure of the knowledge base in the pharmaceutical sector. The main hypothesis under scrutiny is that technological alliances represent a key resource for firms in knowledge intensive sectors to cope with dramatic changes in the knowledge base, marked by the introduction of discontinuities opening up new technological trajectories. Using patent information and data on technological alliances drawn from the CATI-MERIT database, we compare the evidence concerning the so-called triad regions, i.e. United States, Europe and Japan. The empirical results support the existence of a life cycle in biotechnology affecting the pharmaceutical industry. Furthermore, the dynamics of alliances is found to depend on (i) the phase of the biotechnology life cycle, (ii) the strength of the region in biotechnology and (iii) the general features of the economic environment of the region.     

PARTIES, ELECTIONS AND STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

This paper examines whether movements in the stock prices on the Athens stock exchange can be partly explained by the dynamics of the political environment. On the basis of a partisan structure, with two main political parties and a high density of elections, we find that the conditional mean and variance of the stock market index are affected by political developments in Greece. In particular, we find that different political regimes affect the conditional variance of the stock market index, and also that the stock market index is asymmetrically affected by past innovations.     

Innovation, embeddedness and policy: evidence from life sciences in three UK regions

This paper draws upon a survey of the life science and biotechnology regions of Oxford, Central Scotland and South West England to examine the innovation and embeddedness traits of the regions. The insights into the compositional weaknesses and strengths of the regions suggest opportunities and threats for the future development of the UK's life sciences and biotechnology. The discussion moves forward debates on biotechnology, regional innovation, regional economic development and policy by posing research questions relating to the gap of knowledge of two under-researched regions, the need for a differentiated view of regions and a public policy approach tailored towards them, as well as the prospects of 'engineering' high-tech regions. Some of the highlighted policy challenges are common to the three regions, while others are region-specific and reflect the variations of regional make-up and stage of development.     

Tracing interdisciplinarity of converging technologies at the nanoscale: A critical analysis of recent nanotechnosciences

Besides 'innovation', 'interdisciplinarity' is one of the most popular buzzwords frequently used in present-day science policy. At the same time, however, 'interdisciplinarity' is vague and misty; the term is not well defined. In order to clarify its meaning, I classify different types of interdisciplinarity. By making use of analytical classification I show that a specific type of interdisciplinarity is involved in the nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science (NBIC) scenario on converging technologies (Roco-Bainbridge report of the US National Science Foundation). I argue that the NBIC scenario is based on a 'technoobject-oriented interdisciplinarity'. This type of interdisciplinarity will be contrasted with the research program of the European Union on converging technologies (CTEKS) that widens the circles of convergence and aims to promote a different ('problem-oriented') type of interdisciplinarity.     

Nanotechnology innovation system: Understanding hidden dynamics of nanoscience fusion trajectories

Nanoscience and technology has introduced a new dimension to basic sciences and a range of technologies. Researchers from various scientific disciplines are aggressively getting involved in the relevant research as a parallel way to boost nanoscience competitiveness through academic research, and corporations are directing their R&D activities towards the exploration and exploitation of nanotech opportunities. For years, it has been said that innovation is achieved by breaking through the boundaries of existing technologies. This paper has argued how nanotechnology is driven by scientific research and in what way traditional disciplines are fused into this emerging area. We attempt to provide an empirical analysis of the dynamics of nanoscience fusion trajectories, which is typically a focused area in innovation studies. In this paper, we seek to understand the attributes that are likely to enable scientific disciplines to fuse into nanoscience through a combination of quantitative and qualitative search within nanotechnology systems of innovation (NanoSI). An insight of the similarity and disparity of fusion between Europe and Japan is also provided. Finally, we develop an integrative framework to explore the co-evolutionary nature of nanotech. The paper then tries to derive some implications that would be useful for science and technology policy makers as well as for researchers in traditional scientific disciplines.     

Innovation,embeddedness and policy: evidence from life sciences in three UK regions

This paper draws upon a survey of the life science and biotechnology regions of Oxford, Central Scotland and South West England to examine the innovation and embeddedness traits of the regions. The insights into the compositional weaknesses and strengths of the regions suggest opportunities and threats for the future development of the UK's life sciences and biotechnology. The discussion moves forward debates on biotechnology, regional innovation, regional economic development and policy by posing research questions relating to the gap of knowledge of two under-researched regions, the need for a differentiated view of regions and a public policy approach tailored towards them, as well as the prospects of ‘engineering’ high-tech regions. Some of the highlighted policy challenges are common to the three regions, while others are region-specific and reflect the variations of regional make-up and stage of development.     

Bibliometry and nanotechnology: A meta-analysis

As in other fields of science, bibliometry has become the primary method of gaging progress in nanotechnology. In the United States in the late 1990s, a period when policy makers were preparing the groundwork for what would become the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI), bibliometry largely replaced expert interviews, then the standard method of assessing nanotechnology. However, such analyses of this sector have tended not to account for productivity. We hope to correct this oversight by integrating economic input and output measurements calculating academic publications divided by the number of researchers, and accounting for government investment in nanotechnology. When nanotechnology journal publication is measured in these ways, the U.S. is not the leader, as has been widely assumed. Rather, it lags behind Germany, the United Kingdom, and France.     

The three webs: an attempt at an understanding of the future

This article poses questions about the significance of increased internationalization of science which has developed since the cold war. It deals with three different aspects of present-day science: particle ptpsics, nanotechnology and space exploration. In a simple way, research can be divided into three different froms: information (which, by definition, I call public), knowledge (that is, covered by intellectual property rights (IPR)) and training. Further, I assume that innovation is commercial and thus has a profit motive, in contrast with the scientific goal of enlarging our view of the universe. There is, however, a more fundamental issue which is the realization that the type of accounting economy we have is too naive to develop our society further. Consider figures form the US Department of Commerce-if research is one cost unit, engineering to protogpe is three and full production 20, or even 50 for pharmaceuticals. These figures indicate the present importance placed on rates of return on capital in assessing the effectiveness of research.     

Crystallizing the nanotechnology debate

Much of the initial commentary on nanotechnology assumed, implicitly or explicitly, that nanotechnology represented a radical discontinuity from existing science and technology. The birth of the nanotechnology debate was marked by the differences of opinion as to whether the technology's outcomes would be positive or negative. The authors trace the journey from this polarized debate to the current discussion of nanotechnology, finding that the latter is still conducted in the parameters set by the initial utopian and dystopian extremes. Yet the discussion now focuses on defining the technology and identifying the social and ethical issues, which are often reduced to the potential risks of toxicity and the need for public engagement. The authors argue that nanotechnology is erroneously treated as homogeneous and is under-analysed; it is the very diversity and transdisciplinary nature of nanotechnology that makes it distinctive and interesting to social science enquiry. In this way, it may yet be prototypical of Gibbons et al. 's 'Mode 2' science. The focus of social science research should be less on the implications of nanotechnology, and more on its creation, the processes through which it develops and the alternative perspectives underlying this. The authors conclude by outlining core elements of a social science agenda for nanotechnology.     

德国生物技术产业发展现状及其研发创新

生物技术是当前最具潜力和最富活力的科技领域之一。德国联邦政府认为,从传统化石能源时代向生物经济时代过渡是人类社会发展的必然趋势．未来生命科学和生物技术将更广泛地应用于农业、林业、渔业、畜牧业、食品、化工、制药、能源、环保和商贸服务等众多产业领域。知识生物经济将提高国家竞争力。2010年11月,德国联邦政府发布了《生物经济2030：国家研究战略》。包括德国在内的世界各国政府都高度重视推动本国生物技术研发创新和产业化发展。本文对德国生物技术产业发展最新情况进行了调研,并对其研发创新及其产业化发展的政策机制进行了总结分析。     

生物技术产业集群发展机理研究——以美国波士顿地区为例

生物技术产业已成为当今世界各国家和地区重点发展的高技术产业之一。生物技术产业集群展现了许多以科技为支撑的产业集群特征,同时又具有围绕知识源地区集聚的特点。从生物技术产业特性角度出发,以美国波士顿地区生物技术产业发展为例,对知识的创造与传播以及开发与运用两个子系统进行分析,探究生物技术产业集群发展机理。     

Index arbitrage and dynamics between REIT index futures and spot prices

This article contributes to the real estate literature by investigating the pricing relationship between REIT index futures and spot. Based on the cost-of-carry model, we first show that there exist three arbitrage regimes in Australia’s REIT spot-futures price dynamics. Further analysis indicates that the two thresholds, which separate the regimes, are largely consistent with the level dictated by transaction costs. We then estimate a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM). The results show that mean reversion of the mispricing error only takes place in the two outer regimes. Furthermore, we find evidence that REIT spot market is more informationally efficient than the futures market. Given its short history, it will take time for REIT index futures market to mature. Finally, we find that we can enhance hedging performance by accommodating the feature of threshold cointegration displayed by the data. As the futures-spot relationship differs across regimes, we can develop a hedging strategy by adjusting the hedge ratio based on arbitrage regimes. It leads to a greater variance reduction for the hedged portfolio than some conventional methods examined in the existing real estate literature.     

A Sociology of Expectations: Retrospecting Prospects and Prospecting Retrospects

Future expectations and promises are crucial to providing the dynamism and momentum upon which so many ventures in science and technology depend. This is especially the case for pre-market applications where practical utility and value has yet to be demonstrated and where investment must be mobilised. For instance, clinical biotechnology (including a wide range of genetic therapeutic and engineering applications) has been at the centre of ferocious debates about whether or not promises and expectations will be realized. In some cases, the failure of expectations has severely damaged the reputation and credibility of professions, institutions and industry. The need for a better analytical understanding of the dynamics of expectations in innovation is both necessary and timely. This paper develops the basis for a sociology of expectations, drawing on recent writing within Science and Technology Studies (STS) and case studies of biotechnology innovation. In particular, we offer a model for understanding how expectations will predictably vary according to some key parameters. Such factors include the degree to which technologies and innovation relationships are either relatively established or newly emergent. Expectations will also vary according actors' relative closeness and involvement in knowledge production itself. The paper proceeds by analyzing the way expectations in clinical biotechnology have changed over time. That is, we compare the way the future was once represented with the way it has been represented more recently. The paper concludes by offering a means by which it is possible to map or model the "situatedness of expectations'.     

Innovation as a nonlinear process,the scientometric perspective,and the specification of an ‘innovation opportunities explorer’

The process of innovation follows nonlinear patterns across the domains of science, technology, and the economy. Novel bibliometric mapping techniques can be used to investigate and represent distinctive, but complementary perspectives on the innovation process (e.g. ‘demand’ and ‘supply’) as well as the interactions among these perspectives using animations. In a map, the different perspectives can be represented as ‘continents’ of data related to varying extents over time. For example, the different branches of Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) in the Medline database provide sources of such perspectives (e.g. ‘Diseases’ vs ‘Drugs and Chemicals’). The multiple-perspective approach enables us to reconstruct facets of the dynamics of innovation, in terms of selection mechanisms shaping localisable trajectories and/or resulting in more globalised regimes. By expanding the data with patents and scholarly publications, we demonstrate the use of this multi-perspective approach in the case of RNA Interference (RNAi). The possibility to develop an ‘Innovation Opportunities Explorer’ is specified.     

A Sociology of Expectations: Retrospecting Prospects and Prospecting Retrospects

Future expectations and promises are crucial to providing the dynamism and momentum upon which so many ventures in science and technology depend. This is especially the case for pre-market applications where practical utility and value has yet to be demonstrated and where investment must be mobilised. For instance, clinical biotechnology (including a wide range of genetic therapeutic and engineering applications) has been at the centre of ferocious debates about whether or not promises and expectations will be realized. In some cases, the failure of expectations has severely damaged the reputation and credibility of professions, institutions and industry. The need for a better analytical understanding of the dynamics of expectations in innovation is both necessary and timely. This paper develops the basis for a sociology of expectations, drawing on recent writing within Science and Technology Studies (STS) and case studies of biotechnology innovation. In particular, we offer a model for understanding how expectations will predictably vary according to some key parameters. Such factors include the degree to which technologies and innovation relationships are either relatively established or newly emergent. Expectations will also vary according actors' relative closeness and involvement in knowledge production itself. The paper proceeds by analyzing the way expectations in clinical biotechnology have changed over time. That is, we compare the way the future was once represented with the way it has been represented more recently. The paper concludes by offering a means by which it is possible to map or model the "situatedness of expectations'.     

Industry dynamics, technological regimes and the role of demand

In this paper, we propose an industrial dynamics model to analyze the interactions between the price-performance sensitivity of demand, the sources of innovation in a sector, and certain features of the corresponding pattern of industrial transformation. More precisely, we study market concentration in different technological regimes and demand conditions. The computational analysis of our model shows that market demand plays a key role in industrial dynamics. Thus, although for intermediate values of the price-performance sensitivity, our results show the well-known relationships in the literature between technological regimes and industry transformation, we find surprising outcomes when demand is strongly biased either towards price or performance. Hence, for different technological regimes, a high performance sensitivity of demand tends to concentrate the market. On the other hand, under conditions of high price sensitivity, the industry generally tends to atomize. That is to say, for extreme values of the price-performance sensitivity of demand, we find concentrated or atomized market structures no matter the technological regime we are in. These results highlight the importance of considering the role of demand in the analysis of industrial dynamics.     

Understanding reflexive systems of innovation: An analysis of Swedish nanotechnology discourse and organization

We seek to understand how nanotechnology can contribute to the development of a more sustainable society in general, and to investigate Swedish nanotechnology in particular. On the one hand, the research interest is on how nanoscience can be turned into used products, that is, innovation. On the other hand, we acknowledge that innovation itself is the main producer of risk in modern societies. Inspired by sociology and economics of innovation, we try to capture this by introducing the term 'reflexive system of innovation' to denote a system made up of heterogenous elements, such as discursive components (expressions of knowledge and normative and regulative stands) and organizational components (actors and knowledge), evolving in a non-linear way through external influences as well as self re-enforcing and self-regulating processes. We present the evolution of a Swedish nanotechnology system from the 1980s to the present, as it moves through phases characterized by different kinds of discourse and organization. Evaluating the Swedish case against the concept of a reflexive system of innovation, we find advanced academic knowledge production but a lack of interconnectivity between actors, few actors outside the research community entering the system and a weak function of anticipation, guidance and risk handling. Broad national nanotechnology initiatives (NNIs) may be important for the crystallization of the desired processes, but because neither innovation nor risk can be fully contained, an NNI may only be part of the input to a fully fledged reflexive system of innovation in nanotechnology.