The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860–1930)

This article investigates transitions at the level of societal functions (e.g. transport, communication, housing). Societal functions are fulfilled by socio-technical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e.g. artefacts, knowledge, user practices and markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks. To understand how transitions from one socio-technical system to another come about, the article describes a conceptual multi-level perspective. The perspective is illustrated with a historical case study: the transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles in the USA (1860–1930). The case study shows that technological substitution approaches to this transition are too simple, because they neglect the electric tram and bicycle, which acted as important stepping stones. The case study also corrects another mistake, namely that the gasoline car won by chance from steam and electric automobiles. It will be shown that particular niches played a crucial role in this competition, as well as the wider socio-technical context. The case study deviates on three points from the multi-level perspective. These deviations are used to conceptualize a particular transition pathway, called ‘de-alignment and re-alignment’.     

Evolving roles and dynamic capabilities of an innovation agency: the Dutch Rijksnijverheidsdienst, 1910–1940

Contemporary literature on intermediary organisations does not cover the history of these organisations in the early twentieth century or how their roles evolved. To understand the evolution of roles, this paper extends the application of dynamic capabilities theory from firms to intermediary organisations. It does this by studying a Dutch government innovation agency between 1910 and 1940 with dynamic capabilities in mediation and knowledge development. These capabilities are illustrated by nine examples that reveal how the agency's consultants modified and extended their resource base in order to continue supporting small and medium-sized enterprises while coping with considerable challenges and changes. Thereby, this paper shows that the dynamic capabilities theory can explain how intermediary organisations can adapt their roles.     

Quality-corrected price indices: the case of the Dutch new passenger car market, 1990–1999

Market dynamics and technological developments constitute a major challenge to the proper measurement of the price evolution of durable goods. In this study, hedonic methods are used to estimate quality-corrected price indices of new passenger cars in the Netherlands, 1990–1999. Use is made of a huge set of price, quantity and quality information about 11,000 car models, obtained from different sources. During the observation period the nominal price level of all available car models increased about 20% on average, while the shares of car models with airbags, tinted glass and power steering increased from almost nothing to about 90%. Matched model price indices and the official CPI for new passenger cars, which partially account for quality-adjustments, estimate the price increase to be equal to 10.6–14.2% respectively 11.2% for the 1990–1999 period. By contrast, the hedonic Fisher-like price indices based on the preferred annually estimated brand-weighted semi-log hedonic model, lead to price changes varying from +?2.3% to ??3.4% (depending on the choice of weight variable, and the use of fixed or varying reference periods in the index construction) and thereby fall 8.9 to 14.6 percentage points below the official figures, over the period 1990–1999. The pooled adjacent-years model holds an intermediate position with a predicted quality-corrected price decrease of 1.8% over the observation period, which is 13.0 points below the CPI.     

Determinants of persistence in innovation: evidence from the case study of the ‘Eye Microsurgery’ Complex

This study aims at determining the major factors supporting innovative persistence based on an in-depth analysis of the internal organizational processes of the state-owned medical institution, ‘Eye Microsurgery’ Complex in Moscow. I propose a systemic approach to the study of innovation activities, which incorporates aspects of evolutionary economics, institutional analysis and dynamic capabilities theory. The study explicitly incorporates the changing external environment as a factor shaping innovation dynamics. The findings suggest that at the earliest stage of the firm's development, the interaction between the nature of the technology and the nature of the demand, the presence of prolific innovators and a certain organizational structure that supports learning, effective knowledge production and accumulation are determinant of persistence in innovation. In later periods, the availability of resources (material, financial, specialized human capital), external collaborations, specific production techniques, well-organized technological diffusion, and motivational factors are the elements providing the basis for innovative persistence. Leadership plays a crucial role in supporting innovation and organizational transformation.     

The rise and fall of self-service in Amsterdam trams: user–technology relations in a case of service innovation

The stabilisation of innovative technology depends on reconciling technological opportunities and user behaviour. This can be achieved by adjusting the technology to the users, by configuring the user, or by a combination thereof. This paper evaluates different strategies in a case of service innovation: the substitution of conductors with self-service machines in the Amsterdam tramways around 1970 and the various forms of fare-dodging that came along. To counteract fare-dodging, the transport company unsuccessfully relied on a strategy to configure users. Alternative strategies, notably configuring users through technological adjustment, are suggested to increase the chance of stabilisation. These observations and suggestions are related to the actual characteristics of services: given that transport services are immediately and collectively used, their misuse, if not corrected by fellow passengers, soon tends to threaten the aspect of stability. Emphasising service characteristics thus contributes to a better understanding of strategies to reconcile services and users.     

Structural change and macroeconomic policy: the case of Greece (1981–85)

This article examines one aspect of ‘alternative economic strategies’ which seek to introduce planning and other interventionist economic policies in order to promote structural change. Experience has shown, most recently in France and Greece in the 1980s, that such strategies are often abandoned because of macro-economic imbalances, such as current account crises. Thus it seems that a crucial aspect of such strategies should be the co-ordination of short-term, or macro-economic, policies with longer-term supply-side policies. The interest in the Greek experiment (1981–85) lies in the fact that the Greek socialists were aware of the need for such co-ordination and their strategy for ‘stabilization through development’ and ‘gradual adjustment’ was formulated for this purpose. This article looks at the economic theory underlying this approach and the implementation of the strategy. However it is argued that the degree of control necessary for the successful implementation of the strategy was lacking. The failure of macroeconomic policy once more contributed to the abandonment of an alternative economic strategy. I investigate the reasons behind this failure and draw some lessons of more general relevance for the successful co-ordination of macroeconomic and supply-side policies.

Accumulation involves a process of continual structural transformation, a qualitative change, in which the scale, content and location of economic activity are progressively transformed. There is no automatic mechanism ensuring that this takes place in a desirable manner or at a desirable pace (Eatwell and Green, 1984: 202).     

Knowledge sourcing and firm performance in an industrializing economy: the case of Taiwan (1992–2003)

We examine the impact of R&D and technology imports on firm performance in Taiwan??s manufacturing industry in a policy context of industrial upgrading. To do so, we estimate a Translog production function on two panels (covering 1992?C1995 and 1997?C2003), using stochastic frontier models. We find that the effects of both knowledge inputs become significant in a larger number of industries in the second panel. These results suggest that the policies encouraging innovation implemented from 1991 onwards paid off in the second half of the 1990s, with innovation driving firm sales. In traditional industries, the effect of innovation can be interpreted as an effort to catch up with the global technology frontier. In the electronics and high-technology industries, it rather testifies of the emergence of a new domain of specialization for Taiwan??which was largely enabled by the aforementioned innovation policies.     

Reverse causality in the R&D–patents relationship: an interpretation of the innovation persistence

Starting from the failure of the R&D–patents traditional relationship, when time-series and/or within-industry dimensions are included in the empirical analysis, the present work tries to contribute to the empirical literature from two directions. First, it performs a Granger causality test based on the theoretical presumption of a reverse patents→R&D link as an explanation for the failure of the traditional relationship. Second, assuming the reverse patents–R&D causality, we test and interpret the lag structure of such a relationship which shows the effective patent life that firms can expect within the two Schumpeterian patterns of innovations they belong to. In the light of the effective patent life, we offer a further explanation of innovation persistence which overturns the findings of the existing literature on persistence.     

A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)

We propose a novel chronology of global business cycles based on industrial production data for a sample of 85 countries at a monthly frequency from 1980 until 2012 and the Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm. We assess the methodology with statistical tools of signal detection theory and against existing chronologies of country-specific turning points. Finally, we conclude by introducing and evaluating a logit model of the probability of a global downturn occurring up to 12 months ahead. This model uses the macro and financial indicators tracked by the Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (see Grossman et al., 2014) to offer advanced warning of upcoming turning points of the global cycle.     

Multi-Regime Interactions in the Dutch Energy Sector: The Case of Combined Heat and Power Technologies in the Netherlands 1970–2000

This article is about multi-regime interactions in energy sectors. Multi-regime interactions are interactions between fairly well defined and separated systems of production, intermediation and use. It is argued that multi-regime interactions have been underexposed in previous innovation literature, yet it is hypothesized that multi-regime interactions are critically important for understanding transition processes, and in particular for current transitions in European energy sectors. Based on a case study on combined heat and power (CHP) in the Netherlands, a typology is developed of four types of interaction: competition, symbiosis, integration and spill over.     

Reducing Teacher Moral Hazard in the U.S. Elementary and Secondary Educational System through Merit-pay: An Application of the Principal–Agency Theory

America’s elementary and secondary educational system is faced with an inefficiency stemming from a basic problem associated with unobservability: moral hazard. In this case, the teacher (agent) has an incentive to exert less effort (given cost associated with more work) if the school district (principal) cannot distinguish between low student performance due to a lack of teacher effort and low student performance due low student quality (random variable). This research develops an optimal incentive scheme that guarantees the teacher a fixed payment, plus a variable payment that would be a function of teacher ‘action’ variables thereby reducing moral hazard.

Government interventions and the size of the informal economy. The case of Iran (1971–2007)

Literature on the informal economy can mainly be divided into two different contrasting theories. According to the dual labor market theory (DLM), which considers the informal economy as a spare sector providing jobs for formally unemployed resources, unpleasant economic situations force people to act informally. Legalists, on the other hand, blame government interventions such as minimum wages or price control policies for pushing rent-seeking firms toward the shadows. This study using an Error-correction Multi-Indicators Multi-Causes (EMIMIC) model, a systematic method consisting of structural and measurement equations, shows that these two theories are complementary rather than substitutes for one another. While long-term trends are explained by legalists, DLM theory is also suitable for explaining short term changes. Iran’s economy in the period 1971–2007, which was characterized by government interventions, is chosen for this purpose. These interventions are measured by Principal Component Analysis. Finally, an index of the size of Iran’s informal economy is also reported.     

Regime switching and the (in)stability of the price–rent relationship: evidence from the US

Present value models of house prices assert that in the absence of self-fulfilling bubbles, a house price is equal to the present discount value of all future rents, which implies a linear relationship between house price and rent, and hence a stable price-to-rent ratio. Using a Markov switching error correction model, we re-examine this relationship in the US housing market and find two distinctive regimes: one with a long-run relation between house price and rent predicted by the present value models and the other in which the relation is nonlinear. Furthermore, we find evidence that deviations of house prices from the present value models’ predictions are caused by the overreaction of house prices to movements in rents rather than speculative bubbles attributable to extraneous factors.     

The disadvantage of entrants: did transition eliminate it? The case of the Russian footwear industry (1992–2000)

Several studies have analyzed entry in developed capitalist economies coming to the conclusion that entrants are usually smaller, less productive and at higher hazard than incumbents. This study considers if this was the case also in the rather peculiar situation of those firms which entered during the period of transition from planned to market economy, in one of the ex-soviet countries. Additionally this work considers whether or not the uncertain environment generated by transition did activate a process of entry, as situations of uncertainty are generally supposed to do. The main result of this paper is that despite the fact that incumbents were firms created and organized to meet the objectives of the soviet regime, they were not outperformed by subsequently-created firms which were formed to match the needs of a transitional/quasi market economy. These results do not support “vintage” and “liability of obsolescence” models which suggest that new comers are better fitted to match new conditions.

Foundational ontologies and multi-paradigm analysis,applied to the socio-technical transition from mixed farming to intensive pig husbandry (1930–1980)

This article adds a new case study to the expanding literature on socio-technical transitions: the shift from mixed farming to intensive pig husbandry in the Netherlands. With regard to this transition, the article addresses a new direction, namely the role of foundational ontologies in explanation. Five ontologies are distinguished, which are based on different assumptions about causal agents and causal mechanisms: rational choice, functionalism, conflict and power struggle, interpretivism, and structuralism. The article demonstrates how these ontologies provide different explanations of same case. It also empirically investigates the strengths and weaknesses of different ontological explanations, and identifies possible complementarities in this case. The article ends with theoretical reflections on the relationships between ontologies and the role of meta-paradigm analysis.     

Consumer power and market control: Exploring consumer behaviour in affluent contexts (1946–1980)

Abstract

The aim of this essay is to present and explain the emergence and decay of two unorthodox views of consumer behaviour that developed from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s: the view of the powerful consumer and the view of market control by producers. It begins by presenting their common origins in empirical studies that opposed the Keynesian-type analysis of consumption. While the first developed into the program of behavioural economics defended by George Katona of the Michigan Survey Research Center, the second nourished the contributions of authors like Galbraith (1958, 1967, 1977), Scitovsky (1954, 1962, 1976) and Mishan (1960, 1967).     

Firm adaptiveness and performance heterogeneity: the case of sales–advertising dynamics in an evolving product market

We combine evolutionary theory concepts and multivariate persistence methodology to develop and test expectations about the adaptiveness of firm decisions and its implications for performance heterogeneity. We focus on the relatively reversible advertising decisions in an evolving product market, domains typically ignored by evolutionary research. We find that an adaptive decision routine helps an incumbent firm maintain its advantages and overcome the challenge posed by a major competitive entry.

Corporations and local economies in the Brazilian Amazon: the impacts of the mining sectors scheduled investments in Southeastern Pará (2004–2010)

Southeastern Pará is an extraordinarily dynamic region. There were large cattle ranching projects, financed in the 1960s. Expansion of peasant agriculture, mineral projects and gold prospecting followed the ranching projects. Also important structural transformations reinforced the role of the urban centres and the local rural bases in the logistics of new economic sectors conditioned by the presence of Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), in the region since 1985. This article presents the results of an input–output analysis of the investment programme of CVRD from year 2004 up to 2010. The main findings are that the mineral sector has achieved a considerable influence over the economy of Southeastern Pará, so that during the cycle of investments each 1% in the growth of the mineral production creates growth possibilities of about 0.83% for the agricultural sector and about 0.86% for the local urban sectors. Considering just the production growth, a percentile point will imply growth at, respectively, 0.73% and 0.76% for those sectors. For the economy of the rest of the state of Pará, those elasticities would be, incorporating the investments, 0.80% and, without them, 0.68%. For the economy of the rest of Brazil they would be, respectively, 0.88% and 0.78%.     

Wealth,volume and stock market volatility: case of Hong Kong (1993–2001)

This article attempts to answer the question of whether the gain and loss in property market speculations and rate of information flow play a significant role in stock market volatility in Hong Kong. To test for our wealth–volume–volatility hypothesis, two different measures of volatility: absolute (absolute value of SD from mean with monthly dimension) and conditional (EGARCH) are used and results are compared. In both measures, we find evidence of a statistical presence of a wealth effect on stock market volatility, particularly in the investment of luxury class of property in Hong Kong. To account for this result, we apply the prospect theory, house money effect and the newly developed conditional confidence theory. Although we fail to establish a volume–volatility relationship in our estimation, we offer additional dimensions to the explanation of our observation.     

Economic burden of hypoglycemia: Utilization of emergency department and outpatient services in the United States (2005–2009)

Objective: To estimate the economic burden of hypoglycemia on the healthcare system at the national level in the US between the years of 2005–2009.

Methods: This study analyzed the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), including emergency department (ED) and outpatient department (OPD) components, and the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS). The annual rates of ED and OPD visits associated with hypoglycemia were reported. Subsequent medical services after disposition were studied. The unit cost of specific medical service was estimated from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). All annualized costs were adjusted to US 2009 dollars. We also estimated the rates of injury and ambulance use incurring within a visit for hypoglycemia.

Results: The total direct medical cost of hypoglycemia was estimated as $3.49 billion in 2005 and decreased gradually to $1.84 billion in 2009. The declining trend was correlated with hospital admissions from ED, which decreased from 170 665 in 2005 to 71,751 in 2009. Consequently, the estimated annual expenditure of hospitalization for hypoglycemia from ED declined over time by more than half ($2.90 billion in 2005, $1.25 billion in 2009). Injury was reported among 9.5% of the ED visits for hypoglycemia. Ambulances were used among 58% of the ED visits for hypoglycemia.

Conclusion: Hypoglycemia poses a significant burden on the healthcare system; however, annual direct medical cost of severe hypoglycemia in the US decreased over the 5 years studied, which is attributable to tremendous decrease in need of hospitalization following an ED visit.