EMBODIED CARBON IN TRADE: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper critically reviews the literature on embodied carbon in trade and evaluates our present empirical understanding of these flows. A careful comparison of quantitative results from this literature exposes significant inconsistencies. For instance, estimates for emission embodied in world trade in 2004 range between 4.4 Gt and 6.2 Gt CO2, the difference corresponding to around half of Europe's annual emissions. A few consistent themes do nevertheless emerge from the literature. Most importantly, emissions in trade constitute a large and growing share of global emissions. Uncertainty about country‐level embodied emissions remains large, however, which presents severe limitations for the practical application of embodied carbon principles in climate policy.     

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE IN URUGUAY

Using input–output analysis, we identify the key sectors in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Uruguayan economy. The responsibilities of each sector in terms of its emissions are decomposed into an own component, generated during the activities of the sector, and an indirect component, generated by the induced activities in other sectors. This has important implications for the design of mitigation polices, as the appropriate policy measures are contingent on the nature of the pollution. Technical improvements and best practices are effective only when applied to directly polluting sectors, while demand policies may be more appropriate for indirectly polluting sectors. In addition, we analyze pollution generated during the production of exports. The results show that demand policies are going to be effective in the Building, the Hotel and restaurants, and the Wholesale and retail trade; and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sectors. These policies complement GHG emissions’ mitigation policies in directly polluting sectors (mainly the Cattle farming and the transport-related sectors). Finally, methane and nitrous oxide emissions are mainly the consequence of production for exports, while carbon dioxide emissions are mainly driven by production for domestic consumption.     

IMPACT OF URBAN AND RURAL HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN CHINA

In this paper, we utilize input–output analysis and decomposition techniques to examine the direct and indirect urban and rural per-capita carbon emissions generated by household consumption in China from 1987 to 2007. The results show that indirect emissions are considerably larger than direct emissions due to households in urban and rural areas. Indirect urban emissions increase significantly because of growing expenditures, but indirect rural emissions do not register the same increase. Direct urban emissions decrease significantly because of changes in the energy mix, but direct rural emissions show only a slight decrease. The increase in the disparity of indirect urban–rural emissions and the decrease in the disparity in direct urban–rural emissions are evident. These findings imply that both energy-saving behavior in the production sector and residential lifestyle transition – particularly in the urban areas – are significant in mitigating carbon emissions in China.     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BASED ON RECTANGULAR SUPPLY-USE TABLES

This paper formalises the so-called Supply-Use Based Econometric (SUBE) approach that allows for the introduction of econometric analysis in the calculation of backward input–output multipliers of the Leontief-type quantity model, using rectangular supply and use tables. The SUBE approach does not require any kind of inverse matrix and incorporates the traditional approach (with square supply-use tables) as a particular case. The empirical analysis shows that the SUBE carbon dioxide multipliers for the EU27 are considerably lower than those obtained by the traditional Leontief inverse. In an application of the SUBE approach, the European economy appears to emit about 10% less carbon dioxide than in a situation in which it would not import any intermediate inputs from outside the EU27.     

CALCULATING ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS EMBODIED IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE USING A GLOBAL INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL

The Global Resource Accounting Model (GRAM) is an environmentally-extended multi-regional input–output model, covering 48 sectors in 53 countries and two regions. Next to CO₂ emissions, GRAM also includes different resource categories. Using GRAM, we are able to estimate the amount of carbon emissions embodied in international trade for each year between 1995 and 2005. These results include all origins and destinations of emissions, so that emissions can be allocated to countries consuming the products that embody these emissions. Net-CO₂ imports of OECD countries increased by 80% between 1995 and 2005. These findings become particularly relevant, as the externalisation of environmental burden through international trade might be an effective strategy for industrialised countries to maintain high environmental quality within their own borders, while externalising the negative environmental consequences of their consumption processes to other parts of the world. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects and data requirements of the model, and shows results for selected countries and aggregated regions.     

USING TIME-SERIES TO MEASURE UNCERTAINTY IN ENVIRONMENTAL INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS

Environmental Input-Output Analysis (EIOA) is a tool for environmental analysis of broad classes of sectoral activities, taking into account indirect effects in other sectors in the supply chain. The core of EIOA is an input–output table (IOT) and national accounting matrix including environmental accounts (NAMEA) for a fixed base-year. We evaluate the uncertainty in EIOA using a time series of current-price IOT and NAMEA for 13 years from 1990 to 2002. We find annual variations in the current-price IOT and NAMEA, which may represent either realistic changes in production or measurement error. We assume the changes are errors and apply a regression analysis to remove the trends from the underlying data and estimate the uncertainty in the raw IOT. We then calculate the emissions for various final users and sectors to estimate the uncertainties from typical EIOA investigations. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we then investigate how well the variations in the current-price IOT and NAMEA over time may represent uncertainties. The results of this work have several implications for both statistical offices and the analyst. Statistical offices can provide details on data sources, methodologies, and estimates of annual variations. Analysts can incorporate this uncertainty information to understand the implications of uncertainty on their calculations and ultimately the policy recommendations derived from their studies.     

A NEW SUT CONSOLIDATION METHOD TESTED BY A DECOMPOSITION OF VALUE ADDED AND CO2 EMBODIED IN EU27 EXPORTS

This paper develops a method to consolidate national supply–use tables (SUTs) into a single supra-regional SUT. The method deals with mirror trade statistics problems, such as the different valuation of imports and exports, and it corrects for double-counting re-exports. The method is tested by means of a decomposition of value added and CO₂ emissions embodied in EU27 exports to third countries. When the national SUTs for the period 2000–2007 are used, neglecting intra-European Union spillover and feedback effects results in an underestimation of the embodied value added of 12–15%. Not consolidating the national tables properly leads to a further underestimation of 11–16%. With these underestimations removed, EU27 foreign exports still only explain around 11% of EU27 Gross Domestic Product, whereas they explain 17% of the EU27 CO₂ emissions. Hence, the income benefits of these exports are, in relative terms, considerably smaller than their CO₂ emission cost.     

A CARBON FOOTPRINT TIME SERIES OF THE UK – RESULTS FROM A MULTI-REGION INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL

The framework and results of an international multi-region input–output (MRIO) model for the UK are presented. A time series of balanced input–output tables for the UK was constructed for the period 1992 to 2004 by using a matrix balancing procedure that is able to handle conflicting external data and inconsistent constraints. Detailed sectoral and country-specific trade data for the UK were compiled and reconciled with the UK input–output data, and economic and environmental accounts for three world regions were integrated in a UK-specific MRIO model. This was subsequently used to calculate a time series of national carbon footprints for the UK from 1992 to 2004. Greenhouse gas emissions embedded in UK trade are distinguished by destination of imports to intermediate and final demand. Most greenhouse gases show a significant increase over time in consumer emissions and a widening gap between producer and consumer emissions. Net CO₂ emissions embedded in UK imports increased from 4.3% of producer emissions in 1992 to a maximum of 20% in 2002. The total estimated UK carbon footprint in 2004 was 730 Mt for CO₂ and 934 Mt CO₂ equivalents for all greenhouse gases.     

THE POWER OF VISIBLE HANDS: AN ENVIRONMENTAL STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS CONSIDERING THE PEOPLE'S DAILY EFFECT

As an organ of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the People's Daily (PD) has a critical influence on China's policies and economy. This study examines the impact of the PD on China's economic structural changes and industry environmental performance. To separate the ‘PD effect’ from other effects in total sectoral CO₂ emission changes, we propose a new variation of structural decomposition analysis using the frequencies of keywords employed in the PD. We use data from the PD for 2001 to 2011 and the Chinese input–output tables for 2002, 2005, 2007, and 2010. The results show that, on average, the PD effect explains about 11% of changes in total sectoral CO₂ emissions. Specifically, the PD has a relatively strong impact on the mining and utility sectors, while its impact on the manufacturing sectors is relatively weak.     

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF POLICY RESTRICTIONS ON WATER WITHDRAWALS FROM SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND SOURCES

The appropriation of water for economic activities is limited by regional surface and underground endowments, and symptoms of environmentally unsustainable withdrawals are already visible in many regions of the world. In this paper we investigate the economic implications of water policy imposing source- and region-specific restrictions on water withdrawals taking the Mexican economy as a case study. We use an inter-regional input–output model of Mexico's hydro-economic regions to allocate production subject to the availability of water and other factors of production. Water sustainability requires a reduction of 7.5?km³/yr of groundwater withdrawals, which is compensated by an increase of 3.4?km³/yr of surface water, an expansion onto an additional 1.4 million hectares of rainfed land, and modifications in subnational patterns of food trade. This framework for evaluating scenarios describing sustainability-oriented water policies is readily applicable to other regions.