THE CHOICE OF MODEL IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF INDUSTRY COEFFICIENTS MATRICES

Kop Jansen and ten Raa's (1990) characterization of product-by-product input–output tables was adopted by the United Nations (1993). Recent OECD and several EU funded projects, however, used industry-by-industry tables, which raises comparable issues concerning their construction. We show how their two main construction models are instances of the transfer principle, with alternative assumptions on the variation of input–output coefficients across product markets. We augment the theory by formulating desirable properties for industry tables and investigate the so-called fixed product and fixed industry sales structure models, which are used by statistical institutes. The fixed industry sales structure model is shown to be superior from an axiomatic point of view.     

TRADE INTEGRATION,OUTSOURCING AND EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRIA: A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Outsourcing and trade integration of advanced countries is debated with respect to employment effects, in particular for low educated workers – at least in relative terms. We study the employment effects – differentiated by educational attainment levels – of changes in the patterns of trade integration and outsourcing in the Austrian economy over the periods 1995–2000 and 2000–2005 using hierarchical decomposition analysis based on deflated input–output tables. Outsourcing is modeled as changes in the shares of domestically produced intermediates in total intermediates. A similar decomposition of the final demand vector allows us to draw conclusions on the overall employment effects of trade integration. The results suggest that the expected negative employment effects of outsourcing and rising import penetration have been overcompensated by increasing exports. Thus, the overall employment effects of Austrian trade integration have been positive for all educational attainment groups. However, whereas the total effects have been strongest for medium and high educated workers over the period 1995–2000, employment of low educated workers have been strongest and positively affected over the period 2000–2005. This pattern can be explained by a more sluggish export performance together with stronger negative effects of outsourcing and import penetration in medium and high-skill intensive products.     

HOW MUCH DO EXPORTS CONTRIBUTE TO CHINA'S INCOME GROWTH?

It is a widespread belief that exports, in particular of ‘high-tech’ products, contribute much to China's income growth. This study addresses this issue by applying a structural decomposition analysis to input–output (I–O) data. We employ two extended I–O tables that distinguish processing trade from ordinary exports. The contribution of exports to the value-added growth from 2002 to 2007 is found to be overestimated by 32% when standard I–O tables are used rather than the extended I–O tables. Even more strikingly, the value-added growth that may be attributed to the exports of ‘high-tech’ telecommunication products is overestimated by no less than 63%. A serious overestimation of the contribution to income growth of certain products (such as high-tech products) sends out misleading signals to policymakers. When measured correctly, the true contribution appears to be substantially smaller than is generally believed to be.     

ON THE PARAMETERIZATION OF TECHNIQUES FOR REPRESENTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC STRUCTURES

This paper is concerned with two parameterized methods of regionalising input–output coefficients: the Flegg et al. Location Quotient (FLQ) and its augmented version (AFLQ). For applying the two techniques, a parameter δ has to be estimated. In this regard, the paper faces two matters that are still open in the literature: the existence of a range of δ that can be used in different regions and the estimation of the most appropriate value of δ. For this aim, a Monte Carlo simulation has been carried out in order to generate ‘true’ multiregional I-O tables randomly. From the simulation, analyses based on probability distributions and regression were also carried out. Finally, these simulation results have been compared with those of an empirical case. Results confirm that there is actually a range of values of δ within which the best δ is more likely to fall. For the FLQ, this range is centred on 0.3 with an associated probability of 33% (if the width of the range is set at 0.1), whereas, for the AFLQ, the relevant range is between 0.3 and 0.4 with a probability by 38%. Finally, this paper provided a way to estimate the best δ for a given region, without knowing the relevant and detailed economic structure at sectoral level.     

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY CHANGES AND WORKING TIME: THE CASE OF GREECE

In terms of the annual hours worked per employee, Greece ranks first among EU-15 countries and second among OECD countries. In this context, the austerity measures it adopted (as suggested by the EU and IMF) imply, among other things, a reduction in the over-hours. If such reductions were not to be accompanied by increases in labour productivity, output would be reduced considerably. This paper therefore addresses the question: “What change in sectoral labour productivity levels would have been required to deliver the actual change in final demands in Greece between 1995 and 2005, if working hours in each sector had been reduced to their EU averages?” In this framework, we develop a methodology for calculating labour productivity change by sector of economic activity in an input–output context. Next, we apply it to the Greek economy for the time period 1995–2005, the most recent period for which the required data are available. We find that the required productivity changes are the most substantial for the hotels and restaurants sector, followed by machinery manufacturing and the trade sectors.     

EMBODIED CARBON IN TRADE: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper critically reviews the literature on embodied carbon in trade and evaluates our present empirical understanding of these flows. A careful comparison of quantitative results from this literature exposes significant inconsistencies. For instance, estimates for emission embodied in world trade in 2004 range between 4.4 Gt and 6.2 Gt CO2, the difference corresponding to around half of Europe's annual emissions. A few consistent themes do nevertheless emerge from the literature. Most importantly, emissions in trade constitute a large and growing share of global emissions. Uncertainty about country‐level embodied emissions remains large, however, which presents severe limitations for the practical application of embodied carbon principles in climate policy.     

A NEW SUT CONSOLIDATION METHOD TESTED BY A DECOMPOSITION OF VALUE ADDED AND CO2 EMBODIED IN EU27 EXPORTS

This paper develops a method to consolidate national supply–use tables (SUTs) into a single supra-regional SUT. The method deals with mirror trade statistics problems, such as the different valuation of imports and exports, and it corrects for double-counting re-exports. The method is tested by means of a decomposition of value added and CO₂ emissions embodied in EU27 exports to third countries. When the national SUTs for the period 2000–2007 are used, neglecting intra-European Union spillover and feedback effects results in an underestimation of the embodied value added of 12–15%. Not consolidating the national tables properly leads to a further underestimation of 11–16%. With these underestimations removed, EU27 foreign exports still only explain around 11% of EU27 Gross Domestic Product, whereas they explain 17% of the EU27 CO₂ emissions. Hence, the income benefits of these exports are, in relative terms, considerably smaller than their CO₂ emission cost.     

DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES WITH DETAILED AGRICULTURAL LAND RENT DATA AND IMPROVED VALUE-ADDED COMPONENTS FOR THE USA

We describe a method for creating social accounting matrices (SAMs) with detailed agricultural land rent data for any arbitrary subset of the 48 contiguous states in the USA. Data on land use and land rents from various public sources is merged with national accounts data. The method reorganizes the rental income of persons concept present in national accounts to payments to conventional primary factors of production. This method also reallocates portions of the indirect business tax account to the appropriate sales and import tax accounts. SAMs created using this method should be useful inputs into input–output or computable general equilibrium models explicitly representing a heterogeneous land market and analyzing the economic effects of agricultural, bioenergy, water and climate policies on land-use change, land rents, agricultural commodity markets, trade and households’ welfare. The method's implementation is freely available, enabling others to rapidly create SAMs with their own desired region and sector aggregations.