The Bernanke Agenda

Cool,calm,and collected,Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is driving Wall Street batty.When traders scream about a recessionary "credit crunch," the former professor acknowledges their concerns but predicts contin-     

建立民族产业预警保护系统应提上日程

一自2001年11月中国加入WTO后,我国国民经济的方方面面都发生了巨大的变化,比如降低关税、汽车降价、进出口贸易配额和许可证管理范围缩小、扩大外商在国内的投资领域、允许更多的外资银行经营人民币业务、修改国内现有与WTO规则相悖的法律、转变政府职能等等。但对我们来说,中国“入世”后最大的变化是国内产业受到的国际竞争压力越来越大,甚至有人把大量下岗失业人员(目前我国统计的失业率为4%,但许多专家认为实际失业率应在8%以上)与外资的进入、国内市场的开放联系在一起。比如汽车行业2002年的新关税已定:进口车排量在3.0L(含3.0L)…     

The Resilience Agenda in Neoliberalising Cambodia

The paper provides a critical assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience strategies in Cambodia with reference to resilience. The paper argues that resilience is a part of and correlated to the localised practices of a specific form of neoliberalisation in and of Cambodia. As a result, disaster risk strategy is a potential means of managed neoliberal state-led intervention capacity in sub-regions to pre-empt and manage particular forms of land and social conflict. The paper links current state-led resilience policy to the Cambodian government’s increasing interest in ensuring land for infrastructure connectivity as its national development plan in the context of regional economic integration.     

中国改革20年:成就、挑战与新的征程

中国改革可以分为三个阶段,即包产到户之试验基础上的农业改革阶段、通过放松计划经济时代的各种限制以释放巨大能量的乡镇企业发展阶段和针对全球经济进行结构重组的国有企业改革阶段。随着中国加入世界贸易组织,中国经济日益融入全球化进程,更为激烈的全球性竞争将迫使中国对其国内一些部门进行适当的改革和调整,中国改革将迎接其前进道路上所面临的一系列新的挑战而开始其新的伟大征程。     

Social Security Reform and National Wealth

Recent trends in common stock prices suggest a distinction between increases in national net worth and flows of physical investment. In this paper we present a simple overlapping generations model in which such differences can arise: technological progress occurs exogenously, yet firms own new technologies for a time. We examine possible consequences for social security reform. Reform which increases private saving depletes part of its force raising the (capitalized) price of proprietary technologies. A calibrated example suggests an increase in physical capital one-third smaller than without inelastic factors. Both steady states and transition paths are considered.     

The WTO Agenda for the New Millennium

This paper examines the main challenges confronting the WTO and assesses the WTO's potential to address each of these issues in the near term. The immediate challenges include completing the integration of agriculture and textiles and clothing into the mainstream of the GATT, and improving rules for liberalizing trade in services. But many new issues have arisen during the 1990s. The paper assesses both the opportunities available to meet those challenges and the prospects for success in further market liberalization via a new round of multilateral trade negotiations. It concludes by drawing out implications of these developments for Australia.     

开放视角下的国家综合负债风险与市场化分担

随着中国经济金融的日益开放,中国国家综合负债的规模与结构在动态变化:一方面,国家综合负债的某些旧因素(如银行不良资产)的存在形式发生了变化,另一方面,国家综合负债的一些新因素(社保基金缺口、巴塞尔协议的顺周期影响和汇率波动导致的外汇资产损失)开始显现。从开放视角考察,中国的国家综合负债风险形势仍较为严峻。在政府承担社会性支出的基础上,更多地重视和运用市场化分担方式是化解和防范国家综合负债风险的基本途径,保持经济持续稳定增长是应对国家综合负债风险的根本保障。     

The Economic Agenda: a View from Europe

Over the course of the 1990s, the US outperformed Europe not only in output growth, but also in productivity and employment generation, thereby stopping Europe's decade‐long period of catching up. The author shows that the growth difference originates at least partly from insufficient investment by Europe into the determinants of long‐run growth (research, education, and the diffusion of new technologies). Northern European countries with comprehensive welfare systems performed better than the big economies in continental Europe, owing to their timely realization that these costly systems require the highest possible levels of productivity and fast growth. The European agenda for the next decade is based on this analysis. It stresses the importance of accelerating economic growth, primarily through investment into growth drivers. Labor market reforms are necessary, as is the redefinition of macroeconomic policy, a regional policy adequate for European enlargement, and reforms in the public sector. Distributional and ecological issues are also on the agenda, even though Europe outperforms the US in these fields, as is reflective of European preferences.     

国家经济伦理与国有商业银行改革--附议国有商业银行股改上市的逻辑

传统的经济伦理观念和计划经济传承下来的经济伦理观念成为国家在进行经济改革时所面临的价值取向,其对于国有商业银行的改革起着至关重要的导向作用,国家在平衡"经济效率"与"经济公平"关系的基础上,基于推动国有企业"经济效率"提高和确保转轨的稳定性的经济改革指导思想,而使得国有商业银行的改革出现诸多"非效率"甚至"损失"的行为,完全是一种理性的选择.将国家经济伦理引入到对商业银行股改上市行为的逻辑分析上,可了解其背后真实的政治经济学含义.     

The Economic Agenda: a View from the US

The paper surveys the agenda needed to restore noninflationary growth in industrial countries. The role of fiscal policy as short‐run stimulus both on the spending side and on the tax side is discussed. The author comments on trade, specifically the new trade round, and international finance. Long‐run fiscal imbalances due to aging are analyzed. The role of fiscal institutions such as the European Growth and Stability Pact, the Japanese bad‐loan problem, and structural problems are put into the perspective that advanced economies should nurture their reforms globally so as to provide successful examples of reforms and prove helpful trading partners.     

中国和俄罗斯中央银行改革之比较

从20世纪70年代以后，在许多国家开始付诸实施提高中央银行独立性的制度改革。与此同时，随着金融全球化的发展和转轨国家原有体制的低效率以及计划经济体制改革的失败，转轨国家中央银行改革也面临着必须合理解决这一问题。本文从中央银行隶属关系、决策、分支机构的设置、职能转换，以及央行与财政部和商业银行的关系等方面分析了中国和俄罗斯中央银行独立性制度安排。     

National Identity and the Challenge of Health Reform in Canada

Health reform remains the most contentious policy issue in Canada. Medicare is subject to the same political forces that demand state retrenchment in other areas, but it has escaped wholesale reorganization because of the commitment of Canadians to the principles of medicare, because the provinces and the federal government remain locked in a battle about provincial autonomy, and because the existing system serves the interests of various professional groups including organized medicine. Nevertheless, reform and, especially, expansion of coverage is essential if the existing system is to be sustained. The most encouraging aspect of current debate is the recognition that we can look beyond the U.S. for reforms more consistent with the underlying values of Canadians than is the U.S. system.     

国外国有企业改革路径的考察及启示

国有企业私有化在世界各国方兴未艾,但在大部分国家里,国有企业都是存在的。实际上,在任何一个国家里既存在着高效率的国有企业也存在着无效率的私人企业。国有企业并不是一种需要完全淘汰的企业组织形式,它在现阶段以及将来都有继续存在的现实必要性。各国适应经济发展的要求对其国有企业改革的路径选择为我国国有企业的深化改革与发展提供了许多有益的启示。     

Multi-issue Bargaining with Endogenous Agenda

The first part of this paper shows that in a noncooperative bargaining model with alternating offers and time preferences the timing of issues (the agenda) matters even if players become arbitrarily patient. This result raises the question of which agenda should come up endogenously when agents bargain over a set of unrelated issues. It is found that simultaneous bargaining over “packages” should be a prevailing phenomenon, but we also point to the possibility of multiple equilibria involving even considerable delay. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C78.     

The Evolution of Institutions: An Agenda for Future Theoretical Research

This article reviews some theoretical questions concerning the processes of institutional evolution. The necessity of assuming the prior existence of some other institutions, such as language, is underlined. Arguably, the emergence and stability of some institutions may be enhanced by processes of downward causation through which institutional constraints lead to the formation of concordant habits of thought and behaviour. Having pointed to the importance of pre-existing, as well as emerging, institutions, this article reconsiders the possible role of the state in the emergence and maintenance of some institutions, in particular money and property. An agenda for future research is outlined.