Impact of Childcare and Eldercare on Off‐farm Activities in Rural China

Using individual data collected in rural China and adopting Heckman's two‐step function, we examined the impact of childcare and eldercare on laborers' off‐farm activities. Our study finds that having school‐aged children has a negative impact on rural laborers' migration decisions and a positive impact on their decision to work in the local off‐farm employment market. As grandparents can help to take care of young children, the impact of preschoolers is insignificant. Having elderly family to care for decreases the income earned by female members of the family. Although both men and women are actively engaged in off‐farm employment today in rural China, this study shows that women are still the primary care providers for both children and the elderly. Therefore, reforming public school enrollment and high school/college entrance examination systems so that migrant children can stay with their parents, this will help rural laborers to migrate to cities. The present study also calls for more public services for preschoolers and the elderly in rural China.     

户籍歧视对劳动报酬差异的影响

在我国，户籍歧视是形成劳动力市场分割的重要原因，它不但通过阻碍劳动力流动造成城乡收入差异，也会促成农民工和城镇工人之间劳动报酬的差异。本文利用中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）多年的数据，对我国户籍歧视影响劳动报酬差异的程度进行计算和分析。结论表明，近几年户籍歧视现象并没有明显改观，政府在制定相应政策时，仍需关注这方面的问题。     

The Effect of Social Security Contributions on Coverage and Wages: A Gender Perspective Using a Natural Experiment from Colombia

This article investigates, from a gender and marital status perspective, the effects of pension and health care contributions on the employment and wages of workers covered by social security regulations. To do this, I use as a natural experiment a reform implemented in Colombia during the mid‐1990. In particular I employ a differences‐in‐differences estimation based on an endogenous switching‐regression model that accounts for self‐selection into coverage. My results indicate that, for females, a 10% increase in contributions reduces the relative wages of covered workers by 7.2%. On the other hand, for males, the reform increases the relative wages of covered workers by 7.1%. Among females, the effect is predominantly present in single women. Among men, divorced and widowed workers are the only group not to experience an effect on earnings. For most family groups, the social security reform has no significant effect on coverage.     

Economic Status and Social Attitudes of Migrant Workers in China

Migrant workers, meaning those who used to be farmers but have left rural areas and found jobs in cities as a result of economic reform and rapid development in China, have made a significant contribution to the burgeoning labor market and played an important role in speeding up the transition from a planned to a market economy. This present paper considers the economic status and social attitudes of migrant workers. It is based on the analysis of a large‐scale survey in 2006, which was conducted using questionnaires and covered 28 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions throughout the country. It was found that the income status of migrant workers depends heavily on the education and technical skills that they have developed, rather than on identity‐based discrimination. Surprisingly, it was also found that those on less income and of lower economic and social status show more positive attitudes to society than those who are affluent and considered of higher social status. It is concluded that the decisive factor in attitude and behavior of migrant workers is historic rather than economic.     

The Contribution of Associate's Degree Holders to U.S. Earnings,Labor Quality,Productivity, and Overall Economic Growth

There is substantial evidence on the importance of education as a driver of earnings, productivity, and economic growth. However, knowledge of the specific role of associate's degrees in U.S. economic growth is limited. We analyze the sources of U.S. economic growth and identify the contribution of associate's degree holders to improvements in earnings, labor quality, productivity, and overall economic growth. We find evidence that substitution toward workers with associate's degrees has increased U.S. earnings, aggregate labor quality, and productivity, and that these effects are concentrated in the health care, trade, and government sectors. While the average educational attainment of people entering the labor force has plateaued, our results suggest that shifting workers from some college to associate degrees could improve earnings, the quality of the workforce, productivity, and growth, potentially without more time spent in school.     

从返乡到创业——互联网接入对农民工决策影响的实证分析

基于全国农村固定跟踪观察点2009-2013年的数据，文章实证检验了互联网接入与返乡农民工创业之间的关系，并从社会资本和人力资本两条路径探讨了互联网接入对返乡农民工创业的作用机制。研究发现：返乡农民工的创业意愿很低，返乡农民工中平均只有2.30%选择创业。互联网接入会显著促进返乡农民工创业，具体而言，互联网的接入概率每增加1个百分点，返乡农民工的创业概率提升0.036%。相对于东部地区的返乡农民工而言，互联网接入会显著促进西部的返乡农民工进行创业，而对中部和东北地区的返乡农民工则不存在显著的影响。机制分析结果显示，返乡农民工会通过互联网感知新的知识技能，提升人力资本而促进创业。文章主要结论在使用工具变量的稳健性分析中没有变化。因此，鼓励已返乡农民工创业，特别是强化技能培训以更好地发挥互联网对返乡农民工创业的促进作用，对成功实施乡村振兴战略至关重要。     

Consumption Structure of Migrant Worker Families in China

This study draws on a survey of migrants in 12 cities across four major urbanizing areas in China and investigates the structure of migrant worker families' urban and rural consumption. The results show that the structure of migrant worker families' consumption has been dominated by survival consumption. These families tend to live frugally in cities while engaging in conspicuous consumption in their rural hometowns. The structure of migrant worker families' consumption is mainly shaped by their income stability and wealth levels rather than their current income level. Moreover, migrant worker families with high educational levels and those who intend to settle permanently in cities are likely to allocate substantial expenditure to status and hedonic consumption and to upgrade their urban consumption structure.     

Migration and development in Mozambique: poverty,inequality and survival

Migration is many Mozambicans' preferred employment option (and sometimes last resort). Rural southern Mozambique, short of resources and traditionally less productive agriculturally than other regions of Mozambique, is now more developed and better off than other rural areas. An inter-regional analysis of the South, Centre and North of Mozambique demonstrates developmental differences largely attributable to labour migration (mainly to South Africa) and remittances. However, although migrant worker households, usually deficit agricultural producers largely dependent on migrant remittances, are often better off than non-migrant ones, many are still vulnerable to poverty. Migration has changed significantly over the last 15 years, with the eclipsing of mine migration and the increasing scarcity of jobs available to young Mozambicans. Despite the overall positive economic impact of migrant labour in southern Mozambique, as remittances decrease because earnings are lower and mechanisms for transfer are limited, its benefit may diminish.     

“稳就业”还是“毁就业”？ 数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响

在"数字中国"和"就业优先"战略背景下,数字经济释放就业效能被社会寄予诸多厚望,但其在理论文献上缺乏直接的经验证据。文章利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和278个城市数据的匹配数据,采用腾讯研究院发布的"互联网+数字经济指数"对数字经济进行测度,考察了数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响。研究发现,数字经济对农民工高质量就业具有显著的正向影响。为克服实证模型的内生性问题,文章选取历史数据作为工具变量,所得结果依然支持数字经济对农民工高质量就业的正向效应。基于广义倾向得分匹配法分析发现,数字经济尽管正向影响农民工高质量就业,但在影响效应上却呈现"先上升后下降"的"倒U型",当数字经济为中等发展水平时,农民工高质量就业的边际效应达到最佳。这意味着今后以数字经济为抓手推动农民工高质量就业需遵从"适度"原则,需谨防过度数字化带来的"就业无效"和"就业低效"问题。进一步异质性分析发现,数字经济对"新生代"、"高技能"、从事制造业、交通运输业和居民服务业的农民工就业质量促进作用更明显。本研究为目前国家倡导"大力发展数字经济,促进就业提质扩面"提供了实证支撑,结论对推动农民工高质量就业具有重要政策启示。     

Solution to the Dilemma of the Migrant Labor Shortage and the Rural Labor Surplus in China

Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.     

社会网络与民工工资：来自中国的证据

 本文基于来自中国22个省的农户调查数据研究了利用的不同社会网络对于不同的民工在城市劳动力市场上的工资水平的影响,结果发现：并不是利用所有的社会网络都能够提高所有民工的工资水平。首先,只有利用亲友关系找到的工作才能够得到更高的工资;其次,即使亲友关系也不能提高利用它找到工作的所有民工的工资水平,而只能显著提高女性和已婚民工的工资水平。所以,在研究中忽略社会网络和民工的差异性会导致错误的研究结论。本文有助于帮助理解中国的劳动力流动及社会网络在劳动力市场中的作用。     

家庭规模、子女状况与农民工幸福感

为了考察农民工家庭规模、幸福感的关系,以及子女状况在其中的作用,基于2021年中国综合社会调查（CGSS）的微观数据进行实证分析。结果显示,家庭规模、子女状况、幸福感之间存在两两正相关关系;子女状况在家庭规模与幸福感之间起部分中介作用。因此,提高农民工幸福感可以从扩大农民工家庭规模,支持农民工家庭子女数量增加的角度入手,也为减轻社会老龄化造成的负担提供了有力支持。     

新时期解决农民工社会保障问题探讨

随着中国城市化进程的加速,解决农民工的社会保障问题是中国经济、社会发展过程中不可回避的事实,国内外关于农民和农民工社会保障问题的研究文献非常丰富,这为当前进一步加深研究农民工的社会保障问题奠定了基础。解决农民工社会保障问题有利于"三农"问题的解决和促进社会主义新农村建设,有利于推进中国城市化进程,有利于农村社会的发展,有利于农民工自身的发展。     

The Role of Economic Shocks on Health: Evidence from German Reunification

Sudden economic shocks impact the everyday lives of people from one day to the next. A number of studies have examined the association between economic fluctuations and health; however, no consensus on the nature of this relationship has been established. By exploiting the dramatic economic fluctuations following the German Reunification of 1990, which included a sudden change from a socialist to a capitalist system in East Germany, this study examines the association between broad negative economic shocks and health. The article finds that increases in state unemployment rates are associated with large and statistically significant declines in health outcomes. Estimates are stronger for people who became unemployed shortly after reunification, for low‐income individuals, and for East Germans, a group confronted with larger economic fluctuations. When examining potential mechanisms that could explain the observed health deteriorations, the study finds significant reductions in exercise frequency and increases in economic uncertainty and overall stress.     

Social network,intra-network education spillover effect and rural–urban migrants' wages: Evidence from China

This study examines the determinants of rural–urban migrant wages, paying special attention to the intra-network education spillover effect of the migrants' social network in China. Using the new migrant sample of Rural Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) 2009 survey data, we find that the migrants' social network does have a significant impact on their own earnings. In particular, we find evidence that there exists an education spillover effect of the migrants' social network, which indicates that the education level of the migrants' social network has a significant positive effect on their earnings. We also find that the education spillover effects differ with gender. The results are robust after considering the potential problem of endogeneity.     

外来务工人员消费需求及其对广东经济影响的调研与分析

广东是外来务工人员输入大省,外来务工人员的消费水平对广东居民消费及经济增长有着重要的影响。文章在大量现有文字和数据资料基础上,辅之以问卷调查,通过投入产出模型、计量经济模型等多种工具的结合使用,经过与城镇居民、农村居民的对比研究,对广东外来务工人员的消费总量、消费结构的变动趋势作出量化描述,进而测定外来务工人员消费对广东经济增长的影响。     

The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China

The paper examines the contentious issue of the extent of surplus labour that remains in China. China was an extreme example of a surplus labour economy, but the rapid economic growth during the period of economic reform requires a reassessment of whether the second stage of the Lewis model has been reached or is imminent. The literature is inconclusive. On the one hand, there are reports of migrant labour scarcity and rising migrant wages; on the other hand, estimates suggest that a considerable pool of relatively unskilled labour is still available in the rural sector. Yet the answer has far-reaching developmental and distributional implications. After reviewing the literature, the paper uses the 2002 and 2007 national household surveys of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to analyse and explain migrant wage behaviour, to predict the determinants of migration, and to examine the size and nature of the pool of potential rural–urban migrants. An attempt is also made to project the rural and urban labour force and migration forward to 2020, on the basis of the 2005 1% Population Survey. The paper concludes that for institutional reasons both phenomena are likely to coexist at present and for some time in the future.     

受教育水平对新生代农民工接受心理援助意愿的影响——基于二元logistic回归分析

当前新生代农民工的心理问题尤为突出,而新生代农民工不愿接受心理援助制约了社会对其心理干预实效性的发挥,部分学者认为受教育水平偏低制约了新生代农民工接受心理援助的意愿。基于调研数据,采用二元logit模型,验证受教育水平是否真的有助于改善新生代农民工接受心理援助倾向。结果发现,受教育水平正向影响新生代农民工接受心理援助的意愿,即受教育水平越高,越愿意接受心理援助,而且,这一结论具有稳健性。基于研究结论,提出了加强农村基础教育、消除户籍制度不良影响、设立企业心理援助机构、转变心理援助模式等建议。     

关于农民工“回流”问题的思考

近年来,随着中西部地区经济社会发展,产业转移步伐加快,劳动力输出大省农民工“回流”渐成趋势,引起就业结构的调整,对农民工的服务模式及人力资源利用模式提出了挑战,对此有必要引起重视,政府有关部门需要加强管理,做好农民工转移的服务工作,推进农民工市民化和公共服务的均等化.     

Has China run out of surplus labour?

Many recent studies claim that China has reached a Lewisian ‘turning point’ in economic development, signalled by rising wages in urban areas and the exhaustion of rural surplus labour. In this paper we show that despite some evidence of rising nominal urban unskilled wages between 2000 and 2009, there is little in the data to suggest that this wage increase has been caused by unskilled labour shortages. China still has abundant under-employed workers with very low income in the rural sector. We argue that China's unique institutional and policy-induced barriers to migration have both prevented many rural workers from migrating to cities and also reduced the migrants' length of stay. We project that under alternative institutional settings, the migrant stock could easily be doubled from the current 150 million to 300 million by increasing either the average length of migrant stay, or the migrant inflow, or both.