Productivity in Education: The Quintessential Upstream Industry

Using consistent test score data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress and data on per-pupil spending, I show that the productivity of American public schools fell by approximately half from 1970 to 2000. The most reliable international data also suggest that productivity in American public schools is lower than that of numerous other industrialized countries, including the remaining English-speaking ones, I explore explanations for the decline in productivity, including changing sociodemographics, Baumol's “cost disease,” rising wages of female college graduates, the increasing emphasis on educating disadvantaged children, rising market power, and the education sector's relative decrease in pay for performance. I review evidence that suggests that schools raise their productivity and use of pay for performance when they face competition. I also describe results that indicate that individual teachers have important, distinctive effects on achievement.     

SARIT AND THAILAND'S “PRO-AMERICAN POLICY”

The idea of “pro-Americanism,” appearing at the same time as America's sense of world mission, is a phenomenon of the post World War II period, and for this reason has a very short history. The basic point is that “pro-Americanism”fluctuates according to American conditions, but fundamentally it is controlled by the internal conditions of the “pro-American”country. At the same time, as in most diplomatic relations, “pro-Americanism”is too a basically unstable condition and by trying to stabilize it and make it permanent, both American and the other countries undergo severe stresses. The “pro-American”relationship which ties the United States with numerous small countries in a chiefly bilateral relationship is certainly not immutable. How should the changes be measured and in what context should they be viewed? I shall take the case of Thailand, the most “pro-American”of the Southeast Asian countries. I shall be looking at political leadership as the basic key to the changes, and from this angle the main problem of this article is how to evaluate the part played by Sarit.     

The Later You Pay,the Higher the k

This paper shows the importance of the age path (life-cycle timing) of any tax for the accumulation of capital in the economy. Income, consumption, and wage taxes differ in their age paths as well as their incentive effects. This paper studies how the differing age path of each tax affects the capital accumulation of the economy in an empirically calibrated life-cycle model. We investigate lump-sum “age” taxes and find in every case that the later the person pays tax, the higher the k of the economy. To analyze the life-cycle timing effect of conventional transactions-based taxes (income, consumption, and wage), we replace each tax with a lump-sum age tax that has the identical age path of tax payments over the life cycle. We find that the timing effect is quantitatively important and often causes the impact of a tax on capital accumulation to be very different from what would be predicted from the incentive effect.     

Does information technology raise Japan's productivity?

A standard growth accounting exercise indicates that, after Japan's “lost decade,” its overall total-factor-productivity (TFP) growth has increased notably since 2000. This productivity revival has been limited, however, to information technology (IT) production—has not been a broad-based productivity acceleration like that seen in the United States after the mid-1990s. This paper examines the relationship between IT and productivity gains by employing the “augmented” growth accounting framework for Japanese industry-level data from 1975 through 2005. In particular, we estimate “purified” technology change at industry level by accounting for cyclical mismeasurement of inputs. We find that the post-2000 increase in overall TFP growth does indeed appear to arise from an increase in technological change. Furthermore, the pickup in technology growth has occurred not only in the production of IT but also in the industries that use IT intensively. Our results suggest the possibility that stories of IT as a general purpose technology (GPT) could apply to Japan as well as to the United States.     

Will You Still Need Me: When I’m 64?

For various reasons the relationship between age and productivity is a matter of policy concern. I present new empirical research showing how productivity is affected by age. I study age effects at the individual level by analyzing data on running and publishing in economic journals. Furthermore I present empirical evidence at the firm level on the relationship between age, wage and productivity. In particular I address the potential wage-productivity gap that might occur at higher ages. I conclude that the productivity of older workers indeed decreases with their age. Nevertheless, the decline is limited. Furthermore, I find no evidence of a pay-productivity gap at higher ages.     

The Second Demographic Dividend as a Driver of China's Growth

As China's demographic transition enters a new stage, the “first demographic dividend” – the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades – is bound to disappear permanently. China's future development will be characterized by an aging population. The “second demographic dividend” refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change. This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China, which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich. As the population ages, human capital improvement slows, labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces. This paper suggests taking advantage of a population “echo effect” to improve human capital at all ages, to enhance workers’ ability to benefit from employment, and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly, which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged. These measures are conducive to future economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.     

Are Art Auction Estimates Biased?

This article considers whether presale auction estimates are unbiased predictors of price when “no‐sales” are considered utilizing a newly constructed sample of over 500 works by eight early twentieth‐century American artists. Unbiased presale auction estimates in predicting price, while expected, are generally not supported in previous work, but these studies (excepting one) do not include no‐sales in the calculations. In order to study the question, we employ a standard approach that uses an inverse Mills ratio arising from a sample selection probit to correct for selection bias. We find that controlling for selection bias, presale auction estimates appear to be biased downward, and we offer possible reasons for this result.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S POST‐LIBERALISED CAPITAL FLOWS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS

This study used Christiano and Fitzgerald filtered correlation analysis to investigate the cyclical relationships between South Africa's post‐liberalised capital flows and domestic business cycle fluctuations. The results show that foreign direct investment inflows are counter‐cyclical and proactive, while the “hot” inflows are acyclical. Thus, South Africa's post‐liberalisation “hot” inflows have not been significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations. In contrast, the capital outflows are found to be consistently procyclical and proactive, suggesting that the outflows are more significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations than the capital inflows. In addition, it is found that the cyclical relationships between the capital inflows and the business cycle components of exports, household consumption and gross fixed investment are generally procyclical, except for portfolio inflows, which have a counter‐cyclical relationship with fixed investment. In contrast, the capital outflows are counter‐cyclically associated with exports and household consumption, and procyclically associated with fixed investment.     

Trade,debt, and the Cuban economy

Like many other Latin American countries, Cuba pursued a strategy of “debt-led growth” in the mid-1970s and sustained large balance of payments deficits with the West. Though external balance was restored by 1979, Cuba faced a severe liquidity crisis in 1982 when short-term loans were suddenly withdrawn. This paper is a study of Cuba's seemingly exceptional ability to decrease its foreign debt after 1980, meet interest payments on time, and maintain an overall program of growth with equity. A combination of implicit Soviet trade subsidies, and Cuba's socialist polity and political-economic control, have apparently mitigated the constraints of the “world capitalist system,” and fostered an alternative program to the current austerity measures of most of Latin America.     

Trends in Job Quality for African-American Workers, 1979–2011

Economists expect that increases in education and work experience will increase workers’ productivity and translate into higher compensation. We use data from the March Current Population Survey (CPS) to show that over the past four decades, the “human capital” of the employed black workforce has increased enormously, yet the share of black workers in a “good job” --one that pays at least $19 per hour (in inflation-adjusted 2011 dollars), has employer-provided health insurance, and an employer-sponsored retirement plan-- has actually declined. The CPS data show that black women saw a modest increase in access to “good jobs,” but the share of black men in good jobs decreased. Despite improvements for black women, they were consistently less likely to be in a good job than black men in every year in our sample. Black workers at every age and education level were also less likely to be in a good job in 2011 than they were in 1979.     

Nexus between export,productivity, and competitiveness in the Indian manufacturing sector

This article assesses the nexus between export, productivity, and competitiveness in the Indian manufacturing sector. To do this, we examine the “learning by exporting” and “self-selection” hypotheses using firm-level data relating to Indian manufacturing firms relating to period from 1994 to 2017. The empirical analysis supports the “learning by exporting” hypothesis, but does not support the “self-selection” hypothesis. We also investigate the impact of export on competitiveness, and the results indicate a positive relationship. These findings remain consistent when we segregate manufacturing firms based on industries, intensity use of labor and capital, and firm ownership. In the light of these findings, we recommend that policy focus on enhancing the export capacity of manufacturing firms to further strengthen the competitiveness of Indian manufacturing.     

EMPLOYMENT,CAPITAL, AND PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN URUGUAY

Using a sample of Uruguayan manufacturing establishments we analyze employment, capital, and productivity dynamics over a period of currency appreciation; changes in trade policy; and changes in the institutional setting of wage negotiations. As the relative capital–labor price ratio fell, capital intensity increased. At the same time, there was an increase in labor and total factor productivity. Creation and destruction rates were relatively high and pervasive over time, sectors, establishment size, and establishment age, with exits explaining a sizeable part of destruction rates. Most of the excess reallocation was due to movements “within” rather than “between” sectors. Thus, high reallocation rates were linked to establishment‐level heterogeneity rather than aggregate shocks.     

Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional “optimal currency area” criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries’ performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of “sudden stop” episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of “current account reversal” episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb “sudden stops” and “current account reversals” shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.     

新时期抗战剧对90后大学生的爱国主义教育作用

新时期抗战剧的剧情内容是反映中国人民反帝反封建剥削、争取民族独立和民族解放,与以前的抗战剧单一灌输、沉闷艺术形式相比,它以＂革命＂和＂爱情＂为主导,更为贴近＂90＂后大学生情感生活。在网络信息时代,抗战题材影视作品以一种独特的网络传播方式风靡于90后大学生,这些作品更具有具体性、写实性,更容易赢得90后大学生喜爱,并且能够潜移默化对90后大学生进行爱国主义教育。     

Love,life, and “leftover ladies” in urban China: Staying modernly single in patriarchal traditions

The population in urban China has shown rising age at first marriage and declining marriage rates, especially among college educated professional women who are in their late 20s or their 30s. We investigate the determinants of marriage formation for urban women aged 27 or above who tend to be termed “leftover ladies”. We estimate a recursive mixed-equation model to describe correlated profiles of career, education and marriage. Conventional social norms on gender, especially patriarchy, still prevail. Factors that are not favorable for a conventionally wifely role reduce women's likelihood of marriage. In particular, we reveal a “marital college-discount” of college education. It reduces the probability of marriage by 2.88%–3.6% and a postgraduate degree further oppresses it by 8.4%–10.4%. Favorable characteristics such as facial attractiveness only raises the likelihood of marriage formation for non-college educated women, while pushing up non-marriage probabilities for women with at least college degrees.     

“Cautiously Optimistic” Comments on “Black Americans in the 21st Century: Should we be Optimistic or Concerned?”

This is a commentary on Angel Harris’ examination of the current state and challenges facing the black community. Harris provides a comprehensive overview of the socio-economic status of the black Americans and questions America’s ability to achieve the American “creed of opportunity”. My response to Harris’ question, “Should we be pessimistic or optimistic”, is that I am cautiously optimistic. My optimism is rooted in postsecondary progress of black despite challenges to affirmative action and the lingering test score gap between blacks and whites. However, I am “cautious” about the willingness of policy makers to use “race targeted” or “wealth-based-tested” programs to arrest practices which hinder employment, income and wealth opportunity.     

外资准入如何影响中国相邻城市间生产率差距？

区域发展不平衡不充分是我国当前面临的社会主要矛盾之一，同时坚持"制度型开放"有助于增强地区间产业关联，带动欠发达地区相关产业发展，进而促进地区间的平衡发展。文章将"开放"和"协调"议题结合，以中国2002年《外商投资产业指导目录》的重新修订作为案例，研究外资准入政策对相邻城市间管制放松行业生产率差距的影响和作用机制。文章结论表明，外资准入政策显著减小了管制放松行业在相邻城市间的生产率差距。异质性检验发现，在中部和西部地区以及较低创新水平、盈利水平和外资进入程度行业的样本组，外资准入政策可以更显著地减小相邻城市间管制放松行业的生产率差距。作用机制检验发现，外资准入政策显著降低了相邻城市间管制放松行业的创新水平差距和盈利水平差距，上述变化是促使减小生产率差距的重要影响渠道。拓展性分析发现，贸易自由化加强了外资准入政策减小相邻城市间管制放松行业生产率差距的积极作用。地区之间的市场分割程度越高，外资准入政策减小管制放松行业生产率差距的作用反而越强。     

MEASURING THE ALLOCATION OF ESKOM'S PRODUCTIVITY DIVIDEND1

The methodology developed by Lawrence, Diewert and Fox and Lawrence and Richards is used to determine the contribution of productivity and price changes to changes in Eskom's profitability over time. This methodology enables the calculation of the distribution of the benefits of Eskom's productivity improvements – its “productivity dividend”– among the three key stakeholder groups: consumers, input suppliers (including employees) and Eskom's owners. The results of this study show that Eskom passed on substantially more than the benefits from productivity improvements over the 10 years to 2002 to consumers in the form of real price reductions and to labour in the form of higher real wages.     

Do excessive wage increases raise imports?: Theory and evidence

This paper uses a model of trade in vertically differentiated products to examine the effects of “excessive wage” increases (i.e. above productivity) on the volume of commodity imports. The model predicts that if the domestic country has comparative advantage in producing high quality varieties of some products, then “excessive wage” increases may result in a decrease in the volume of imports for these products. The empirical validity of the model's predictions is demonstrated with the use of disaggregated Japanese import data for the period 1967–1995. We also find that the aggregate volume of Japanese imports is not responsive to “excessive wage” changes.     

Race and the Dynamics of Men’s Mobility into Management from Working Class Jobs

Within the context of the “particularistic mobility thesis” we examine African American/White differences in the incidence, determinants and timing of mobility into management at a refined level, namely, when groups share similar “rank and file” and “elite blue collar” working class jobs. Findings from a Panel Study of Income Dynamics sample of men support theory and indicate that from both job categories, African Americans, relative to Whites, have lower rates of mobility, reach management through a route that is relatively formal and structured by a traditional range of stratification-based causal factors and take longer to reach management. Further, as predicted by theory, racial disadvantage experienced by African Americans are greater among those tracked from rank and file than elite blue collar jobs. Discussed are implications of the findings for understanding African American disadvantage in the American labor market on both an intra-and inter-generational basis.