Long‐term trends in economic inequality: lessons from colonial Botswana, 1921–74

This article contributes to the growing literature on colonial legacies influencing long‐term development. It focuses on Botswana, a case where the post‐independence diamond‐led economy has been considered an economic success story, despite its high levels of inequality. Here it is argued that this pathway of rapid resource‐driven growth combined with increasing socio‐economic inequality had already started during the time of the colonial cattle economy, and that this older case is equally relevant for understanding long‐term growth‐inequality trends in Botswana and other natural‐resource‐dependent economies. Six social tables, covering the period 1921 to 1974, are constructed using colonial archives, government statistics, and anthropological records. Based on the social tables, income inequality is estimated in the colonial and early post‐independence eras, capturing both the formal and informal sectors of the economy. The article demonstrates how the creation of a cattle export sector in the 1930s brought new opportunities to access export incomes, and how this led to a polarization in cattle holdings and increasing income inequalities. Further, with the expansion of colonial administration, government wages forged ahead, increasing income inequality and causing a growing income divide between public and private formal employment.     

农村劳动力回流、就业选择与农地转出——基于千村调查的经验研究

农村劳动力回流趋势增强,不可避免对农地流转产生影响。文章在理论层面深入剖析了回流劳动力的就业选择与农地转出关系,并采用上海财经大学"千村调查"的数据资料,实证检验了农村劳动力回流特征变化和回流劳动力就业选择对农地转出的影响。研究发现,受非农就业不稳定的推力作用和与家人团聚的拉力作用,越来越多的外出劳动力选择回流,西部外出劳动力回流率最高,达到47.2%。回流劳动力的农地转出率普遍高于非回流劳动力的农地转出率,回流劳动力从事非农生产的就业选择对农地转出存在促进效应,而兼业和务农的选择对农地转出存在抑制效应,这意味着回流农村劳动力并非一定会选择农业生产,也可能选择在更小的地理半径内从事非农就业,并且长期外出从事技术工的经历进一步增强了劳动力回流对农地转出的抑制效应。虽然回流劳动力更倾向非农就业,但回流劳动力规模的扩大,使得兼业和纯务农的比例增加,对农地转出的抑制效应呈增强趋势。研究还发现,个人特征、家庭因素、社会网络也是影响劳动力就业选择和农地转出的重要因素,基层政府和地方政府在推动非农就业的政策合力上存在部分抵消,对农地转出产生了抑制作用。文章为农地流转进程缓慢提供了新的解释,推进农地流转需要关注农村劳动力流动特征新变化,同时兼顾各层级政策目标的衔接性。     

Estimating household willingness to pay for water services in a rural economy: The case of Kanye in southern Botswana

This study uses the contingent valuation approach to examine the relationship between selected socio-economic characteristics of households and their willingness to pay for private water connection. An iterative bidding method was used to obtain survey data from 135 households randomly selected from Kanye in southern Botswana and the ordinary least-square regression technique was used to estimate the effects of selected exogenous variables on willingness to pay. The results show that household income, level of education and employment status of the head of the household and level of consumers' awareness are the principal factors influencing willingness. This suggests that any government policy that increases these factors will increase households' willingness. In addition, because consumers' income is associated with their willingness to pay, it is suggested that policies on connection and user fees recognise income inequalities when determining the amount that households should pay.     

Job Opportunities in Foreign Firms and Internal Migration in Vietnam

Using the 2004 Vietnam Migration Survey and the 2004 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey, this paper investigates the role of employment opportunities created by foreign‐owned firms as a determinant of internal migration and destination choice. Multinomial logit and conditional logit models are estimated to study both origin‐and destination‐specific characteristics of migrants. The paper finds that the migration response to foreign job opportunities is larger for female workers than male workers; there appears to be intermediate selection in terms of educational attainment; and migrating individuals tend to go to destinations with higher foreign employment opportunities, even when controlling for income differentials, land differentials and distances between sending and receiving areas.     

Does off-farm employment contribute to agriculture-based environmental pollution? New insights from a village-level analysis in Jiangxi Province, China

This study examines the conventional wisdom that off-farm employment contributes to environmental pollution by increasing the use of agro-chemicals. In order to analyse the role of household decision making and village factor markets in more detail, we run simulations with a hybrid farm household/village computable general equilibrium model that is applied to a village in Northeast Jiangxi Province. We find that the negative lost-labour effect of off-farm employment on agricultural incomes is much stronger than the (small) positive income effect. As a result of reduced labour resources and increased leisure consumption, farm households reduce the intensity of rice cultivation as well as the production of (especially) cash crops. The shift in production activities is stronger for migration than for off-farm employment, because migrants cannot combine off-farm work with onfarm work, and because migration reduces the village market price of oxen services. The shift towards less intensive rice production means that off-farm employment (and migration in particular) reduces the levels of chemical inputs and manure used in agricultural production. The decline in fertilizer input is much larger than the decline in manure use, because manure is a nontradable commodity and is applied only once per year. We therefore conclude that migration and, to a lesser extent, local off-farm employment lead to lower incomes from agricultural production, but have benign effects on environmental quality.     

Effects of wildlife crop raiding on the livelihoods of arable farmers in Khumaga,Boteti sub-district,Botswana

Human–wildlife interaction in Boteti district, Botswana is critical. Wild animals destroy agricultural products and threaten human lives. This paper, therefore, assesses the economic effects of wildlife crop raiding on the livelihoods of arable farmers in Khumaga, Boteti sub-district, Botswana. A total of 119 arable farmers were interviewed using open and closed-ended structured questionnaires in this study. Key informant interviews were also conducted through purposive selection. Findings indicate that wild animals destroy agricultural production at Khumaga leading to food insecurity; sometimes farmers can lose the entire field in single elephant crop raiding. The elephant (Loxodonta africana) was reported by respondents to be a problem animal. In conclusion, decision-makers should ensure that farmers at Khumaga are protected and inducted with mitigation strategies that are effective against wildlife to improve arable farmer’s livelihoods and conservation efforts at Khumaga village and in Botswana.     

Poverty, Inequality and Growth in Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 1980–2000

This paper uses crosscountry data and country-case studies to analyze trends in poverty, inequality and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Compared to other regions, the MENA region has a low incidence of poverty and income inequality. Two factors account for this situation: international migration/remittances and public sector (government) employment. Since the early 1980s international migration to the Persian Gulf and Europe has helped boost the incomes of the poor in the Middle East. At the same time, many MENA countries have used government employment as a means of keeping people employed and out of poverty. Regression analysis of crosscountry data shows that both of these factors have a statistically significant impact on reducing the level and depth of poverty in the MENA region.     

Education and the labour market in Botswana

Using primary data from a 1993/4 Household Income and Expenditure Survey in Botswana, this article presents empirical results on occupational attainment, its determinants, and the extent of filtering down in Botswana's labour market, given changes in labour market conditions over time. It was found that the Botswana labour market has been characterised by some ‘filtering down’ of educated workers into less skilled jobs as the supply of skilled manpower exceeded demand. Those who entered the labour market earlier, those with more education, those located in the urban areas and male workers are more likely to occupy jobs that are higher up in the hierarchy than to be in an unskilled blue-collar job. Jobs higher up in the hierarchy are also more rewarding financially. The article shows that there is occupational segregation of workers by gender in Botswana's labour market in that female workers are generally confined to a narrow range of occupations. The policy implications are that employment creation has to be pursued vigorously and the issue of gender discrimination investigated further.     

Problems and prospects for the development of urban tourism in Gaborone and Maun,Botswana

This paper draws on the tourism system framework to examine the problems and prospects of urban tourism in Gaborone and Maun, Botswana. These are young centres that have a growing number of tourist attractions, facilities and services that could promote urban tourism. The findings of this study, based on both secondary and primary data sources, indicate that urban tourism in Botswana is relatively undeveloped because there is no substantial domestic market, tourist attractions in urban centres are poorly developed and marketed, and city development plans and the national tourism policy are not integrated. The study concludes that, for tourism to become a viable economic sector in the country, urban tourism should be integrated into Botswana's tourism policy and city planning.     

Socio‐economic characteristics of the rural population in Gcumisa ward,KwaZulu

The purpose of this paper is to present information gathered in a multi‐stage sample survey of 193 rural homesteads in the Gcumisa ward of KwaZulu. The survey area was stratified into two regions of different agricultural potential. Estimates of human population, off‐farm employment, crop production expenditure, land utilization and homestead income are projected for the strata Sample observations relating to occupations, wages and cash remittances are also presented. Conclusions drawn relate primarily to the effects of yield expectations, farm size and off‐farm employment opportunities on crop production.     

Nonwhite migration 1960–1970: The role of employment opportunities

This article investigates the economic determinants of variations in nonwhite population growth rates attributable to migration in northern metropolitan areas during the 1960s. A simultaneous equations model is developed in which a nonwhite employment growth indicator is specified as a function of variables theoretically independent of concurrent nonwhite migration. Unlike prior studies of nonwhite migration, the migration equation does not employ a migrant stock indicator. The chain migration effect is linked directly to nonwhite employment growth. Variations in nonwhite net migration rates are found to be directly and significantly associated with nonwhite employment levels and nonwhite employment growth and negatively associated with income levels. Nonwhite employment growth is found positively and significantly associated with the growth of employment opportunities in low-ranked occupations, the growth of white employment in high-ranked occupations and prior nonwhite migration.     

The wages and employment of female day‐labourers in English agriculture, 1740–18501

Using a new sample of farm accounts from 84 farms throughout England, this article provides measures of regional variation and changes over time in female wages and employment in agriculture. Female wages were not fixed, but changed over time and responded to high demand for female labour. The female‐male wage ratio fell between 1750 and 1850, except in the industrial north west. In 1851 approximately 19 per cent of agricultural day‐labourers were female. In the industrial north west, opportunities for factory employment reduced the supply of females to agriculture, but elsewhere the relative demand for female labour in agriculture declined.     

Why development fails: The evaluation gap in Nepal's subsistence agriculture

The rationality of farmer decision-making within traditional environments is widely accepted. This paper introduces a conceptual model for delineating interactions among income, employment and nutrition that explain in large part the living standards in a developing agricultural economy. Given farmer rationality, any development effort requires intervention to remove barriers among these components of the standard of living. A case study of Nepal shows that promotion of horticultural crops and government investment in infrastructure and education could dramatically improve living standards even under traditional agricultural production technology. However, the government did not correctly identify barriers to the long-run realization of these goals until recently. The study concludes that the rationality of government programmes themselves must be subjected to additional scrutiny.     

Labour force and land distributional effects of agricultural technology: A case study of coffee

Land reform frequently refers to government policies which expropriate large farms and fragment them into smaller units; however, land reform can also refer to the opposite process, that of consolidation of farms which are too small for efficient production. In the latter sense, that of land consolidation, land reform may or may not be socially desirable and prompt government intervention. Possible gains in efficiency accruing from land consolidation may not be desirable if it entails agricultural unemployment and accelerated rural-urban migration, in which case governments may try to intervene. This paper looks at land reform in the context of one crop, coffee. New techniques of coffee cultivation will increase output-labour, output-land and labour-land ratios, offering the prospect for higher coffee employment and output. However, economic and institutional barries will preclude higher output; as a result coffee employment and small coffee farms will be threatened. This paper examines the economic implications of the new coffee technology in the context of Columbia.     

The Invisible Hand of Rain in Spending: Effect of Rainfall‐Driven Agricultural Income on Per Capita Expenditure in Ghana

This paper uses a nationally representative household pseudo‐panel dataset for Ghana, a rain‐fed agriculture economy, to investigate whether there is a positive relationship between rainfall‐driven agricultural income and household per capita expenditure. By using the Two Stage Least Squares Instrumental Variable (2SLS‐IV) estimator, it is found that a fall in rainfall‐driven agricultural income leads to a decrease in per capita expenditure. The results show that the gender and the locality of the household head matter in the response of per capita expenditures to rainfall‐driven agricultural income. Female‐headed and rural households are more vulnerable to rainfall‐driven agricultural income changes. The expenditure disaggregation indicates that female‐headed households significantly reduce per capita non‐food expenditure in times of rainfall‐induced agricultural income decrease whilst the response of male‐headed households focuses more on reducing per capita food and remittance expenditures.     

简政放权、职业选择与人才配置

文章构建的职业选择模型显示,政府简政放权等放松管制的政策在提高体制外职位预期回报的同时,也降低了体制内职位的预期回报,这将促使个体更偏好在体制外部门就业,进而降低体制内部门的就业规模。使用CGSS数据的研究发现,严格的政府管制显著提高了个体进入体制内就业的概率,这在使用不同出生队列样本的回归中均成立,且工具变量方法估计和稳健性检验也得到了与此一致的结论。进一步的研究发现,严格的政府管制显著降低了体制外就业者的收入,只是对体制内就业者收入的影响不显著。以上发现意味着,政府简政放权等放松管制的政策将有助于促进人才在体制内和体制外部门间的优化配置,进而有益于中国经济的技术创新和长期增长。     

Agro-clusters and Rural Poverty: A Spatial Perspective for West Java

Neighbouring economies are likely to influence one another. The concentration of farming activities referred to as an ‘agro-cluster’ generates opportunities for income and employment in a given region and its surrounding area. We analyse the link between poverty rates and agro-clusters by accounting for spatial spillovers. To quantify agroclusters, we employ one input-oriented and one output-oriented measure. Our analysis applies six spatial econometric specifications and focuses on 545 subdistricts of West Java, where about 10% of the population live in poverty. We find that the concentration of agricultural employment substantially reduces poverty in a subdistrict as well as in neighbouring subdistricts. We also find that specialisation in crop outputs has positive impacts on poverty reduction and that localisation externalities are fundamental to agriculture's success. These findings imply that policy interventions may be applied in a spatially selective manner because they will generate spatial-spillover effects on poverty reduction in surrounding areas.     

职业初期的“拼爹”严重吗?——基于代际收入传递的视角

文章聚焦于子代职业早期，建立理论模型和连续变量处理效应模型研究父代收入对子代收入的因果性影响，研究发现：第一，理论上讲，代际收入弹性与人力资本回报率、社会资本回报率正相关，与政府对人力资本投资的累进性负相关；第二，在子代职业早期阶段，父亲收入对子代收入有正向因果性影响，且代际收入弹性整体偏低，说明代际收入流动性相对较大；第三，局部代际收入弹性和子代收入波动随着父亲收入水平的上升而下降，说明低收入父亲的子女的代际收入流动性相对较低，易发生贫困的代际传递；第四，代际收入传递存在一定的城乡和性别差异。以上结论说明在我国职业早期代际收入流动性较高，因此，政府在实施相关提升代际收入流动性的政策时，可侧重于劳动者职业生涯的中、后期，同时，应继续提高公共教育政策的累进性。     

Microeconomic determinants of spatial mobility in post-apartheid South Africa: Longitudinal evidence from the National Income Dynamics Study

Migration, important for many areas in development, is strongly related to employment. Debate over labour supply in developing countries frequently hinges on labour migration. This paper examines the determinants of spatial mobility of working-age adults in South Africa, using the first nationally representative longitudinal survey – the National Income Dynamics Study – for 2008–10. The paper outlines the unique advantages of these data for the study of individual mobility – data that open the possibility of a new research project. Specifically, it asks how policy-relevant programmes, such as social transfers and housing assistance, affect migration. This paper finds, on balance, that transfers are negatively correlated with subsequent relocation. Previous migration is also predictive of future migration and both are tightly related to attrition, while there is an increasing but strongly non-linear relationship between income and mobility. Further, we highlight potential pitfalls – including attrition, and definitional difficulties – in the study of migration and illustrate possible solutions.     

Commodity boom-bust cycles and the resource curse in Australia: 1900 to 2007

The Australian economy experienced very frequent and sizeable terms of trade shocks. These shocks at times were more pronounced than commodity exporting developing countries and disproportionately benefited the extreme top end of income distribution. Did they derail overall economic progress? Circumstantial evidence suggests that they did not, but hard econometric evidence appears to be rare. In this paper, I revisit the Australian resource curse question from a long-run perspective. Using time series data on commodity prices, real GDP, real wages, non-farm GDP, manufacturing share of GDP, and manufacturing share of employment covering the period 1900 to 2007, I find very little evidence of a resource curse. Commodity booms in general and positive agricultural price shocks in particular appear to have impacted the rest of the economy positively both in short- and long-run. The positive effect is primarily led by expansion in manufacturing. This is perhaps reflective of trade protection, labour and credit market flexibility, and relatively open skilled migration in Australia especially during the post-war period.