The labour market effects of financial crises

This paper examines how the 2008–2009 financial crisis affected labour markets in Europe, and how this impact depended on employment protection laws. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, our estimates isolate the effect of the lack of credit on the labour market from that of the general decline in aggregate economic activity. We find large and negative impacts of the credit shock on total employment, particularly on temporary, unskilled and young workers. These impacts were significantly larger in countries with stronger legal protection of permanent workers from dismissal. This suggests that the differential impact of the crisis across countries was not entirely driven by the heterogeneity of the credit shock, but also by labour regulations. Given regulatory inflexibility in adjusting the permanent workforce, firms responded to tightening financial constraints by disproportionately laying off temporary workers (who tend to be younger and less skilled than permanent workers).     

Unemployment,long-term employment relations and the determination of unit labour cost growth in US manufacturing industries

This paper examines the effect that unemployment and long-term employment relations exert on the determination of unit labour costs. The paper proceeds in three sections. Section one analyses the relationship between labour market conditions and unit labour costs by developping a simple model of a firm that relies upon dismissal threats to elicit work effort. The comparative static properties of this model suggest that a tightening of labour markets may result in an increase in unit labour costs. In addition, it is argued that the labour market disequilibrium that occurs at full employment levels of unemployment will likely result in an increase in the growth rate of unit labour costs. The second section of the paper reviews diverse theories of long-term employment relations (LTERs), each of which suggest that the presence of LTERs ought to reduce the effect that labour market conditions exert on unit labour costs. The third section of the paper presents empirical estimates of the effect unemployment and LTERs exert on unit labour costs. The central empirical findings can be briefly summarized. First, movements towards full employment increase the growth rate of wages, reduce the growth rate of labour productivity and increase the growth rate of unit labour costs. Secondly, where long-term employment relations are prevalent, the effect of unemployment on wage, labour productivity, and unit labour cost growth is diminished. The paper concludes by discussing the implications these findings have for effort regulation models and the macroeconomic foundations of microeconomic labour market structures     

Experience Rating versus Employment Protection Laws in a Model where Firms Monitor Workers*

While layoff costs in the U.S. are mostly due to experience‐rated unemployment insurance, layoff costs in European labour markets are primarily a consequence of employment protection laws. In this paper we compare the effects of experience rating and employment protection laws on employment and welfare in a model where unemployment arises due to efficiency wage setting and where labour turnover is inefficiently high. We show that a revenue‐neutral introduction of experience rating reduces labour turnover and increases employment and welfare. The introduction of employment protection laws may also reduce labour turnover but employment declines.     

Job protection legislation and productivity growth in OECD countries

We examine the effect of dismissal regulation on productivity in the OECD, using annual cross-country aggregate data on the stringency of employment protection legislation and industry-level data on productivity from 1982 to 2003. Our empirical results suggest that mandatory dismissal regulations have a depressing impact on productivity growth in industries where layoff restrictions are more likely to be binding. By contrast, we find no evidence of a productivity effect of regulations concerning temporary contracts, which suggests that partial reforms, facilitating the use of fixed-term and atypical contracts, are unlikely to have an important impact on efficiency and technological change and cannot therefore be a substitute for comprehensive reforms whereby dismissal restrictions for open-ended contracts are also weakened.
--- Andrea Bassanini, Luca Nunziata and Danielle Venn     

Does the Effectiveness of Employment Incentive Programs Vary by Firm Size?

This article examines the impact of national employment incentive programs on employment growth of individual firms in the original fifteen member states of the European Union (EU-15). We investigate whether this impact differs among firms of different size classes, and whether the effectiveness of employment incentive programs depends on the business cycle. We find that expenditures on employment incentives have a positive impact on employment growth for firms of all sizes. However, this impact is significantly reduced for smaller firms, suggesting that employment incentive programs are less effective for small firms. We also find that the employment impact of incentive programs is stronger during recessionary periods, but only for firms without any employees (i.e., own-account workers).     

Employment security and the demand for labour in Europe

This paper analyses the impact of employment security on labour demand. The approach taken is to estimate a dynamic labour demand function that allows for the effect of changes in a measure of employment security derived from surveys of employers. The estimation uses panel data on employment (both in terms of the total number of employees and total hours worked) for seven European countries for the period 1981–1994. The results suggest that employment security can have significant effects in slowing down the dynamic adjustment of labour demand. The paper also finds some (less robust) evidence that employment security can increase the long run level of labour demand in terms of total hours, but not the number of persons employed.     

Impact of Low Birth Weight Child on Maternal Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Taiwan

This paper examines the impact of having a low birth weight child on maternal labour force participation. We use the instrumental variable technique, the sister fixed‐effects model and the propensity score matching method to control for the endogeneity of child health. Using a unique national merged parent–child data set from Taiwan, the within‐sister estimates indicate that having a low birth weight child reduces female employment during the first 3 years after the birth, by 1–2 percentage points. Furthermore, the adverse employment effect is found to be particularly strong for those mothers who have an illegitimate child with low birth weight.     

Analyst coverage and lawsuit risk

In this study, we use a unique, hand-collected dataset of employee lawsuits and study the impact of analyst coverage on labour relations. We find that an increase in analyst coverage lowers the work-related litigations. In addition, we show that an increased number of analysts lowers the litigation cost, measured by settlement fees and attorney fees. Our results suggest analysts have an important impact on employee relations. Our research enriches the literature on employment practices and analyst coverage.     

Did the pattern of aggregate employment growth change in the euro area in the late 1990s?

This paper examines whether the pattern of growth in euro area employment seen in the period 1997 to 2001 differs from that recorded in the past and what could be the reasons. First, a standard employment equation is estimated for the euro area as a whole. This shows that the lagged impact of both output growth and real labour cost growth, together with a productivity trend and employment ‘inertia’, can account for most of the employment developments between 1970 and the early 1990s. Conversely, these traditional determinants can only explain part of the employment development seen in recent years (1997 to 2001). Second, the paper shows sound evidence of a structural break in the aggregate employment equation in the late 1990s. Third, the paper provides some tentative explanations for this change in aggregate employment developments, using in particular country panels of institutional variables and of active labour market policies but also cross-sectional analyses. Among the relevant factors likely to have contributed to rising aggregate employment in recent years are changes in the sectoral composition of euro area employment, the strong development of part-time jobs, lower labour tax rates and possibly less stringent employment protection legislation and greater subsidies to private employment.     

Measuring the cyclicality of labour market flows using individual transitions

We investigate whether the choice of a business cycle measure affects estimates of the cyclicality of labour market flows. We exploit precise administrative data on individual labour market transitions and study the association of alternative business cycle measures with individual transitions between employment and unemployment. We find indeed substantial heterogeneities across business cycle indicators that may have affected the results of prior studies on labour market transitions.     

Does a free media protect labour rights?

Based on a sample of 47 developing economies considered over the period 1992–2012, we find that a free media reduces the legal protection of labour, taken as a whole. However, the impact differs over various aspects of labour regulation: while media freedom correlates with less stringent regulation of work time, less constraints to dismissal, and lower protection of employee representation rights, it also correlates with greater legal parity of part-time and fixed-term labour with full-time and permanent workers.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF TOURISM, EMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE: THE CASE OF HONG KONG

Abstract.  The present paper uses a dynamic open-economy model with wage indexation to examine the impact of tourism on employment and welfare. Both short-run and long-run situations are analysed. It is well known that tourism converts non-traded goods into tradable goods. An increase in the demand for a non-traded good raises its relative price, which results in an expansion of the non-traded sector at the expense of the traded goods sector. This output shift raises labour employment in the short run. However, in the long run, the higher relative price leads to higher wages, resulting in a negative impact on labour employment. If the output effect is dominant, the expansion in tourism raises employment and welfare. However, under realistic conditions tourism may lower both labour employment and welfare due to rising costs. These results are demonstrated by simulating a dynamic model for the case of Hong Kong.     

Labour market segmentation and union wage gaps

Abstract

There has been a great deal of research regard the effects of unions on union – non-union wage gap. Most of the studies regarding the impact of unions on wages have assumed that apart from the division between union and non-union workers, the labour market is relatively homogeneous. A number of economists, however, have argued that the labour market is segmented, implying that there are distinct labour markets and that some workers employment opportunities are concentrated in “bad jobs” while other workers employment opportunities are concentrated in “good jobs” which are rationed.

This paper will explore whether the relative wage differential between union and non-union workers differs between the independent primary, subordinate primary and secondary labour markets. Labour market segments are defined using “job zones”. “Job zones” are distinct groups defined by the level of specific vocational preparation necessary for a particular occupation, allowing for the comparison of skill levels and training for each occupation. The data on “job zones” comes from the Occupational Information Network database (O?Net). We estimate separate equations for union and non-union workers in each segment using data from the Current Population Survey and calculate union non-union differentials for each labour market segment. The findings of this paper suggest that the greatest differentials are in secondary labour markets followed by differentials in the subordinate primary labour market and that the smallest wage differentials are in the independent primary labour market.     

Realism and a Christian Perspective on Economics

This paper assesses recent neoclassical and radical contributions to the analysis of unemployment as a labour disciplinary device, in particular, those of Shapiro & Stiglitz and Bowles & Gintis. These authors share a common set of premises, notably on the conception of the effort decision, that present severe obstacles to the understanding of productivity constraints on full employment. The models of Shapiro & Stiglitz and Bowles & Gintis identify a specific 'asymptote problem' in which the achievement of full employment immediately triggers infinite (and hence unsustainable) wage increases. The premise that workers find work subjectively costly to perform effectively rules out the possibility for full employment. But this view fails to take into account the actual constitution of work motives. To the extent that work effort may be induced independently of dismissal threats, high work intensity may in fact be undermined by high unemployment. By taking work avoidance as given, the labour extraction literature forecloses consideration of the possibilities offered by alternative work organisation for removing unemployment as a worker disciplinary device.     

THE FUTURE ROLE OF THE LAW

1. All individual labour relations disputes arising out of breach of contract of employment including unfair dismissal should be capable of being settled by the relatively rapid, inexpensive and informal procedures of the industrial tribunals with further appeal on points of law; 2. The minimum condition of legal recognition for the closed shop should be the effective strengthening in law of protection for the individual union member or prospective member, subject to discretion concerning ‘disruptists7rsquo; 3. In the central area of collective labour relations, the following policy suggestions are made: a) criminal or civil sanctions against individual employees are impractical and best forgotten. Sanctions can only be realistically considered in relation to leaders and organisations; b) the objective for a rational law of strike action (or other forms of direct action) should be limited if it is to be realistic, i.e., not the chopping down of managerial or trade union or shop floor power but insistence on a reasonable degree of orderliness and time for second thoughts in the run up to direct action; c) it is an ancient truth that only fair and reasonable laws will command respect. Disputes procedures are a kind of quasi-law. To command respect and to justify sanctions for its breach, a disputes procedure should be independently certificated as fair and reasonable in accordance with modern labour relations standards. The C.I.R. is at present the obvious body in which to vest this certificating power; d) where adequate procedures and principles are provided by the law to deal with an identified class of industrial dispute, the use of private power, including private collective power, to impose a solution should be legally discouraged.     

A low growth path in Austria: potential causes,consequences and policy options

This paper reports on an Austrian research project that deals with the question how the Austrian society could cope with long-lasting low economic growth. Various causes of low-growth that are relevant for Austria (a deteriorating balance of trade, increasing resource prices, consumer restraint of households and less immigration) have been identified, leading to an only moderate gross domestic product growth of 0.55 % per year. The resulting impact on the economy is substantial: the labour market suffers from a shortage of labour supply (due to reduced migration) and from a reduced demand for labour (due to reduced demand in consumption, investments and exports). Subsequently, less employment decreases the development of the disposable income of private households (tax rates and social security contributions held constant). Related to this, public debt is higher due to reduced tax incomes and slightly growing public expenditures. From an ecological perspective, resource consumption increases at a slower rate, however, no absolute reduction can be reached. CO₂ emissions also slightly increase. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that low growth necessarily leads to the achievement of energy and environmental policy goals. Based on these results, a policy scenario was used to analyze whether and how policy measures are able to cope with the negative consequences of persistent low growth. The results reveal that the selected measures are suitable to reduce negative economic effects: The implementation of reduced working time and an eco-social reform of levies might improve the labour market situation. The negative effects on the national budget can be diminished by a reduction of environmentally harmful subsidies. Induced behaviour changes of private households can reduce energy and resource-intensive consumption.     

Wage Determination In Australia*

This paper examines whether a stable expectations-augmented Phillips curve exists for Australia. High real wages in the face of continuing high unemployment over the past decade have led to suggestions that the level of unemployment has little effect on wage determination, with the bargaining process taking place between employers and those employees in ‘secure employment’. Results from aggregate data suggest that the level of unemployment is relevant to wage determination. In addition, the impact of overtime on the growth in money wages is consistent with the view that those in secure employment are influenced by labour market conditions.     

We Can Work It Out: The Impact of Technological Change on the Demand for Low-Skill Workers

There is little doubt that technology has had the most profound effect on altering the tasks that we humans do in our jobs. Economists have long speculated on how technical change affects both the absolute demand for labour as a whole and the relative demands for different types of labour. In recent years, the idea of skill‐biased technical change has become the consensus view about the current impact of technology on labour demand, namely that technical change leads to an increase in the demand for skilled relative to unskilled labour painting a bleak future for the employment prospects of less‐skilled workers. But, drawing on a recent paper by Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003) about the impact of technology on the demand for different types of skills, this paper argues that the demand in the least‐skilled jobs may be growing. But, it is argued that employment of the less‐skilled is increasingly dependent on physical proximity to the more‐skilled and may also be vulnerable in the long‐run to further technological developments.     

Dismissal conflicts and unemployment

We analyse the institutional sources of dismissal conflicts when workers’ effort is not perfectly observable. We build an efficiency wage model with firing costs to capture their effect on employment through wages. In this context, whenever there is a dismissal, a double moral hazard problem can arise. Resolution of this problem by a third party will be imperfect due to asymmetric information. In turn, disciplinary dismissals will not be costless and firing costs will have a negative effect on aggregate employment. The solution to this problem does not necessarily imply the elimination of firing costs.     

Employment Status Persistence in the Japanese Labour Market

The growth of non‐standard employment has become a cause for concern for policy‐makers trying to boost output and keep unemployment low while also maintaining job security. This paper estimates a dynamic unobserved effects model using the Keio Household Panel Survey, an individual‐level panel data set, to investigate the effects on future employment opportunities of employment in Japan's non‐standard employment and regular employment sectors. I find strong evidence of persistence within the labour market, suggesting that past employment experience has a significant impact on future labour market outcomes.