Talent introduction and housing price: a tale of Xi’an

A comprehensive competition policy for talent introduction was first implemented in Xi’an in February 2017 and has been imitated by many cities in China ever since. Although turned out to be useful in alleviating the problem of talents loss in the lower-tier cities, the policy has been criticized for its potential effect of driving up housing prices. Using the synthetic control method proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), we explore the influence of the competition policy for talent introduction on housing prices in Xi’an. Based on the monthly data of Xi’an and 62 control cities across 30 provinces in China from January 2015 to April 2018, we find strong evidence for the positive effect of the competition policy on housing prices. Specifically, the policy increased housing prices in Xi’an by approximately 43% until April 2018.     

Easter Island: historical anecdote or warning for the future?

Two standard solutions for the ‘Malthusian Trap’ involve institutional reforms and technological progress. Using Easter Island as an example, we investigate the hypothetical role that technological progress and population management reform might have played in preventing the collapse of the island's civilization. The model includes a composite manufactured good and a composite harvested renewable resource. Fertility is assumed to rise with per capita income. The resource's carrying capacity and intrinsic growth rate as well as labor's harvesting productivity are subject to technological progress. Fertility is subject to population management reform. The model yields a system of two simultaneous, nonlinear, non-autonomous differential equations. We first study the system's steady states. The system is then parameterized for Easter Island and its comparative dynamics are investigated in simulations. We find that technological progress can generate large fluctuations in population, renewable resources, and per capita utility, sometimes resulting in system collapse. With high fertility rates, the population and the resource vanish. None of the simulations investigated here exhibit a constantly growing per capita utility over time. Finally, we evaluate the applicability of these results to contemporary societies.     

Sustainable exploitation of a natural resource: a satisfying use of Chichilnisky’s criterion

Chichilnisky’s criterion for sustainability has the merit to be, so far, the unique explicit, complete and continuous social welfare criterion that combines successfully the requirement of efficiency with an instrumental notion of intergenerational equity (no dictatorship of the present and no dictatorship of the future). But it has one drawback: when applied in the context of renewable resources, and with a constant discount factor, there exists no exploitation path that maximizes this criterion. The present article suggests a way to cope with this problem. The idea is to restrict attention to the set of convex combinations between the optimal discounted utilitarian program and the stationary program leading to the green golden rule. It is shown that an optimal path in this set exists under rather weak sufficient conditions on the fundamentals of the problem. Some ethical properties of this approach are also discussed. In some cases, it turns out that the restricted solution implies no loss of efficiency and benefits intermediate and infinitely distant generations.     

An economic evaluation of SPREAD on Rwanda’s rural population

Sustainable Partnerships to Enhance Rural Enterprises and Agricultural Development (SPREAD) was a programme to enhance the value chain for commodities in Rwanda including coffee. The implicit concept was that improving the value chain would increase the incomes for smallholders and, hence, reduce the poverty rate. The results indicate that Rwanda coffee prices increased relative to an index price for traded coffee with the implementation of SPREAD. In addition, the results indicate that participation in the coffee market at this time was associated with higher household income and lower rates of poverty.     

The international spillover of china’s monetary policy: a case study of a developing country

This paper aimed to investigate the evidence on the transmission of China’s monetary policy shocks to macroeconomic variables in Iran. Since 1990, China has become one of the main trading partners of Iran; therefore, it is expected that China’s macroeconomic shocks have some consequences on Iran’s Economy. In this study, a structural vector autoregressive model is used to explore such a transmission. The findings of the study reveal that the China’s monetary policy changes significantly affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as Iran’s CPI meaningfully increases with the expansion of China’s money supply. Furthermore, it was found that Iran’s other economic variables, including the real GDP, real effective exchange rate, and interest rate, do not significantly reflect the China’s monetary shocks; even though confirm the expected sign and direction.     

Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption?

ABSTRACT

Based on the household level survey data, the paper makes a projection on China’s household consumption in 2049 with reasonable assumptions of disposable income, demographic structure, urbanization rate and total population in 2049. The results show that at annual income growth rates of 3%, 4% and 5%, China’s total household consumption in 2049 will be 71.0, 97.8 and 133.8 trillion CNY, respectively, 3.1~5.8 times of the total household consumption in 2015. Moreover, our projection shows that even excluding the income growth effect, the future consumption increased by rapid urbanization is much larger than the consumption depressed by the demographic change. The result highlights that as long as the Chinese government can successfully eliminate institutional constraints imposed on rural-urban migration, such as Hukou system or residency permits in the urban areas, population aging would not be a major threat to its future development.     

Isolating the systematic and unsystematic components of a single stock’s (or portfolio’s) standard deviation: a comment

In an article that recently appeared in this journal, Marshall (2015) argued that the systematic component of the SD of a stock or of a portfolio of stocks is its beta scaled by the SD of the market returns. She also contended that the beta mispredicts the actual systematic risk of a stock or of a portfolio of stocks. In this article, I dispute this conclusion, showing that it has been induced by an imperfection in the construction of the empirical application and by some misinterpretations of the results. A corrected replication of the empirical study of Marshall (2015) is provided, along with some comments. I conclude that both the beta and the systematic component in Marshall (2015) are effective measures of systematic risk.     

The effect of a wife’s retirement on her husband’s mental health

This article examines the effect of wives’ retirement on their husband’s mental health in Australia. By exploiting the exogenous variations in women’s retirement induced by the age pension qualifying ages, we find that spousal retirement status has a positive impact on the mental health of older men. This beneficial impact is found to strengthen with wives’ time spent in retirement. We show that wife’s retirement affects the constituents of her husband’s mental well-being in different ways. We also have identified four channels for the positive linkage between older women’s retirement and the mental health of their spouse.     

Choosing one’s own informal institutions: on Hayek’s critique of Keynes’s immoralism

In the main, Hayek favored rules that apply equally to all and located such rules in tradition, beyond conscious construction. This led Hayek to attack Keynes’s immoralism, i.e., the position that one should be free to choose how to lead one’s life irrespective of the informal institutions in place. However, it is argued here that immoralism may be compatible with Hayek’s enterprise since Hayek misinterpreted Keynes, who did not advocate the dissolving of all informal rules for everybody. By avoiding this misinterpretation, immoralism can be seen as institutional experimentation at the margin, which Hayek himself favored.

The economist’s oath: a review Essay

George DeMartino’s 2011 monograph, The Economist’s Oath: On the Need for and Content of Professional Economic Ethics, provides an excellent basis for the development of a discourse on the ethics of economists. This review focuses on the way in which mainstream economists’ arguments against consideration of ethics follow from their presentation of economics as a purely technical subject, and the implication that this pretense itself is unethical. The complexity of ethical issues within a pluralist approach to economics is explored, ranging from the institutional environment within which economists practice to epistemological questions.     

The effect of subsistence on collapse and institutional adaptation in population–resource societies

We extend the Brander–Taylor model of population and resource development in an isolated society by adding a resource subsistence requirement to people's preferences. This improves plausibility; amplifies population overshoot and collapse, and can destabilize the steady state; and allows for complete cessation of non-harvesting activities, in line with archaeological evidence for many societies. We then use bifurcation techniques to give a global analysis of four types of institutional adaptation: an ad valorem resource tax, and quotas on total resource harvest, total harvest effort and per capita effort. In all cases, we find that a higher subsistence requirement makes it harder, or often impossible, for adaptation to avoid overshoot and collapse.     

On the evolutionary edge of altruism: a game-theoretic proof of Hamilton’s rule for a simple case of siblings

We offer a game-theoretic proof of Hamiltons rule for the spread of altruism. For a simple case of siblings, we show that the rule can be derived as the outcome of a one-shot prisoners dilemma game between siblings.JEL Classification: A13, C70, D64Correspondence to: Oded Stark, ZEF, University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Strasse 3, 53113 Bonn, GermanyWe are indebted to an anonymous referee and to Uwe Cantner for helpful comments and suggestions. Partial financial support from the National Institute on Aging (grant RO1-AG13037) and from the Humboldt Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.     

The political economy of decarbonisation: from green energy ‘race’ to green ‘division of labour’

This paper aims to provide an addendum to the rapidly growing concept of a global ‘green energy race’ between major states. It argues that although this framing has been useful in underscoring important dynamics in the process of decarbonisation, its narrow focus on installed capacity obscures a much broader and more complex process at play. In particular, it overlooks the critical role played by states aggressively investing in R&D and export manufacturing in the renewable energy sector. The paper thus supplements the concept of a green ‘energy race’ with that of a green ‘global division of labour’, which sees the process of decarbonisation not exclusively as an effort by individual states to install renewables domestically, but rather as a collective and interdependent process by dozens of states, all striving in different ways to promote capital accumulation on their soil. The paper provides an overview of data covering innovation, manufacturing and deployment in the clean energy sector, and offers a theoretical analysis of the trends observed.     

The economic burden of advanced Parkinson’s disease: an analysis of a UK patient dataset

Abstract

Background:

To evaluate the cost burden of patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) according to the waking hours per day spent in OFF state. An analysis of resource use comprising medical services, professional care and informal care data from an observational, cross-sectional study was conducted.

Methods:

A total of 60 physicians comprising 40 neurologists and 20 geriatricians across the UK participating in the Adelphi PD Disease Specific Programme took part. There were 302 PD patients at H&Y stages 3–5. Patients were characterised according to the percentage of time per day spent in OFF state (<25%, 26–50%, 51–75%, >75%).

Results:

Average 12-monthly total costs increased according to the time spent in OFF state from £25,630 in patients spending less than 25% of their waking hours in OFF to £62,147 for patients spending more than 75% of their time in OFF. Overall, 7% of costs were attributed to direct medical care, while 93% were split between direct non-medical professional care (50%) and indirect informal care (43%).

Limitations:

Low patient numbers in the more advanced disease stages of PD led to very little or no data to directly inform some of the severe health states of the analysis. Data gaps were filled in with data derived from a regression analysis which may affect the robustness of the analysis.

Conclusion:

This study illustrates the increasing costs of advancing PD, in particular related to the time spent in OFF state, and identifies that the foremost cost burden is associated with the care needs of the patient rather than medical services.     

Critical reflections on a realist interpretation of Friedman’s ‘Methodology of Positive Economics’

Uskali Mäki has offered an innovative scientific realist account of Milton Friedman’s 1953 essay, ‘The Methodology of Positive Economics’, which directly challenges the dominant instrumentalist interpretation. This paper offers critical reflections on Mäki’s approach and interpretation. It is argued that Mäki’s method of rereading-rewriting the text is problematic; that an unforced instrumentalist account of unrealistic assumptions can be extracted from the text itself; and that seemingly realist passages can be plausibly read as expressing an instrumentalist stance.     

More than words: the effects of cheap talk in a volunteer’s dilemma

We theoretically and experimentally investigate a game in which exactly one person should make a costly effort to achieve a socially efficient outcome. This setting is commonly known as the volunteer’s dilemma. We implement one-way communication by allowing one player to send a message indicating whether she intends to volunteer and investigate the message’s effects on behavior and efficiency in the subsequent game. We theoretically demonstrate that there are asymmetric mixed-strategy equilibria in the volunteer’s dilemma and argue that one of these is likely to emerge through one-way communication. The experimental data support this notion. We find that the actions of both the sender and receiver of the message are crucially affected by the cheap talk stage and that efficiency in the volunteer’s dilemma increases with one-way communication.     

Piketty’s Elasticity of Substitution: A Critique

This article examines Thomas Piketty’s explanation of a falling wage share. Piketty explains rising income inequality between labor and capital as a result of one parameter of a production function: an elasticity of substitution, σ, between labor and capital greater than one. This article reviews Piketty’s elasticity argument, which relies on a non-standard definition of capital. In light of the theory of land rent, it discusses why the non-standard capital definition is a measure of wealth, not capital and is problematic for estimating elasticities. It then presents simple long-run estimates of σ in constant elasticity of substitution functions for Piketty’s data as well as for a subset of his capital measure that comes closer to the standard definition of productive capital. The estimation results cast doubt on Piketty’s hypothesis that σ is greater than one.     

Can Chinese aid win the hearts and minds of Africa’s local population?

The vast increase in China’s aid projects has raised mounting concerns about the effectiveness of Chinese aid. To assess Chinese development assistance in Africa from the perspective of local residents’ attitude toward Chinese projects, we geographically match Chinese aid projects in Africa from 2000 to 2012 to the respondents of the Afrobarometer survey. By comparing the attitudes toward China reported by individuals who live close to ongoing Chinese projects at the time of the interview to those of individuals who live near sites where Chinese projects will be implemented in the future, this study establishes that the presence of Chinese projects induces a positive view of Chinese aid within the local population. Our mechanism analysis shows that people from all statuses can benefit from economic infrastructure projects, while the advantaged tend to have a better view of Chinese aid. In contrast, social infrastructure aid inspires a more positive view among disadvantaged people. We thus demonstrate that aid can have a differential impact on local attitudes, depending on aid types and statuses of recipients.