我国国债发行规模影响因素的定量研究

发行国债,是我国弥补财政赤字、调节宏观经济的重要工具。一国的国债规模是否适度关系着经济能否健康的发展。本文通过建立计量模型,研究影响国债发行规模的各个经济因素,并运用Eviews 3.1软件进行定量分析,从而得到国家财政赤字和国债年末余额是影响国债发行的最重要的因素。     

我国国债发行规模影响因素的定量研究

发行国债,是我国弥补财政赤字、调节宏观经济的重要工具.一国的国债规模是否适度关系着经济能否健康的发展.本丈通过建立计量模型,研究影响国债发行规模的各个经济因素,并运用Eviews 3.1软件进行定量分析,从而得到国家财政赤字和国债年末余额是影响国债发行的最重要的因素.     

国债发行规模探析

本文阐述了我国国债发行规模现状,通过应债能力和偿债能力两大指标体系分析了我国国债发行存在的问题,在此基础上提出了控制国债规模的措施与建议。     

我国国债发行规模影响因素的VAR模型分析

基于向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解、等计量经济分析方法,对1981-2007年影响我国国债发行规模(NDS)的因素进行实证分析,说明了财政赤字规模(FD)和信贷规模(LS)的变化是影响国债发行规模变化的重要因素,两者对国债发行都产生正面效应,而且后者的作用更为显著,但两者对国债发行规模变化的影响都会随着时间延长而逐渐衰减。     

国债发行对我国货币供给规模的影响

国债发行本身不会增加社会货币供给规模,财政政策对社会总需求长期拉动效应有限。但国债发行会产生分配效应和财富效应,短时间内会扩大社会有效需求,同时也可为央行公开市场操作调节基础货币创造条件。     

影响凭证式国债发行的市场因素分析

凭证式国债作为国家筹措资金的一种形式，以其发行的收益性和无风险性受到投资者青睐，成为社会公众选择的投资对象。本文分析了影响凭证式国债发行的市场因素，并提出了针对性的建议和设想。     

影响我国国债发行的因素分析

（一）来自储蓄存款的影响。储蓄是人们最原始的理财方式,具有稳妥、方便、灵活的特点,目前仍是城乡居民首要的投资渠道。银行存款和国债销售量存在“此长彼消”的关系,因受利益驱动,金融机构均加大了吸储力度,并更愿意推销自己的理财产品,这些都对国债的销售形成冲击,影响了国债的发行速度。     

凭证式国债发行面临新挑战

随着市场经济的日益发展、各种金融投资品种的日趋丰富和人们投资理念的不断成熟，凭证式国债发行遇到了前所未有的困境与挑战。本文结合我省实际情况，针对存在的问题进行分析与探讨。     

我国国债发行方式简析

我国政府最早发行国债可以追溯到1951年，“一五”期间为支持国家经济建设中央政府发行了五期“国家经济建设公债”，1958年由于历史原因中央政府停止了国债发行工作。     

2010年债券市场回顾与展望

2010年,中国经济保持了总体向好态势,宏观经济指标不断回暖,然而受下半年通胀预期不断增强的影响,货币政策由适度宽松逐渐向稳健回归,债券市场在流动性总体充足的背景下走出了先扬后抑的走势。全年债券发行规模稳步扩大,市场交易更加活跃,投资者类型更趋多元。展望2011年,随着债券市场产品创新的深入,以及市场制度和基础设施建设的不断完善,债券市场支持经济发展的作用将进一步增强。     

2009-2010年债券市场运行分析与展望

2009年,在适度宽松的货币政策和积极财政政策引导下,我国债券市场得以克服国际金融危机负面影响,继续保持稳定运行态势。各类证券发行量稳步增长,二级市场交易量温和放大,指数出现回调,债市与股市互动明显。展望2010年,在通胀预期和货币政策从紧预期影响下,市场利率有望上行,指数震荡幅度加大,商业性证券发行量继续增加,政府债券发行会有所控制。     

An empirical analysis of implicit delivery options in the treasury bond futures contract

Assuming perfect, frictionless and efficient markets, this paper develops a framework to estimate the composite value of the quality, wild card and end-of-month options implicit in the T-bond futures contract. The value of delivery options is shown to be the excess of forward price of the cheapest bond over its conversion factor times the exercise price of futures contract. Empirical results indicate that the option values over the last quarter of the nearby contract are on average less than 0.5 percent of the mean futures price, which is substantially lower than the value reported by previous studies. Further scrutiny reveals that although the empirical estimates are contaminated by non-synchronous bond data, they are consistent with certain known theoretical properties of option values.     

铁道债资质简析与超AAA级主体资质比较

受7．23甬温动车事故影响,铁道债在债券一二级市场一度遇冷,其信用利差定位和信用展望成为市场关注的重点。该文结合相关财务指标分析,通过纵向透视铁道部、横向比较其他超AAA级主体资质情况,寻求铁道债信用利差水平的合理评估,并就超AAA级债券的投资策略提出建议。     

香港人民币债券市场发展动态及趋势分析

近来香港人民币债券市场的蓬勃发展吸引了各方广泛关注。香港人民币债券市场的发展对于推动人民币国际化、建设香港离岸金融中心有着重要的意义。文章介绍了香港离岸人民币市场发展现状,分析了近期香港人民币债券市场发展动态以及未来的趋势,并从人民币合成债券和点心债券协调发展、后续政策措施对香港人民币存量及人民币债券市场的影响的角度,探讨了香港人民币债券市场的未来发展。     

A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market

We estimate the ‘fundamental’ component of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads, i.e. the part of bond spreads that can be justified by country-specific economic factors, euro area economic fundamentals, and international influences. The yield spread decomposition is achieved using a multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a unique pricing kernel. More specifically, we use the canonical representation proposed by Joslin et al. (2011) and introduce next to standard spanned factors a set of unspanned macro factors, as in Joslin et al. (forthcoming). The model is applied to yield curve data from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain over the period 2005–2013. Overall, our results show that economic fundamentals are the dominant drivers behind sovereign bond spreads. Nevertheless, shocks unrelated to the fundamental component of the spread have played an important role in the dynamics of bond spreads since the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the summer of 2011.     

国债期限结构为何刚性难调——基于中国债券市场制度约束的分析

中国虽然从国债年度额度审批制度转变到国债余额管理制度,但是国债期限结构创新的制度约束仍然存在。研究表明国债余额管理制度没有解决长期国债短期化的制度供给问题,财政国库现金管理制度缺位是国债期限结构创新的制度供给约束;现行汇率制度制约着央行对短期国债的需求,央行票据对短期国债出现了替代现象,这些构成了国债期限结构创新的需求制约因素。最后,本文提出国债期限结构创新的一些政策建议。     

Catastrophe bond pricing in the primary market: The issuer effect and pricing factors

COVID pandemic has highlighted the importance of hedging against catastrophic events, for which the catastrophe bond market plays a critical role. Our paper develops a two-level modelling and uses a unique, hand-collected dataset, which is one of the largest and most detailed datasets to date containing: 101 different issuers, 794 different bonds, spanning 1997–2020. We identify issuer effects robustly, isolating them from bond specific pricing effects, therefore providing more credible pricing factor results. We find that bond pricing and volatility are heavily impacted by the issuer, causing 26% of total price variation. We also identify specific issuer characteristics that significantly impact bond pricing and volatility, such as the issuer’s line of business accounting for up to 36% of total price variation. We further find that issuer effects are significant over different market cycles and time periods, causing substantial price variation. The size and content of our data also enables us to identify the counter-intuitive relation between bond premiums and maturity, and bond premiums and hybrid bond triggers.     

Discrete-time bond and option pricing for jump-diffusion processes

This paper provides a methodology for numerically pricing generalized interest rate contingent claims for jump-diffusion processes. The method enhances the standard finite-differencing approach to deal with partial differential-difference equations derived in a jump-diffusion setting. Numerical illustrations compare jump-diffusion and pure-diffusion models.I am especially grateful to Darrell Duffie, who provided me immensely valuable input on the paper. I would also like to thank Dilip Madan and Rangarajan Sundaram for alleviating my confusion with helpful comments.     

An analysis of factors influencing asset writedowns

This study investigates the magnitude of total asset writedowns for a random sample of Australian industrial companies. We adopt an income strategy approach in operationalising our magnitude of writedowns construct to consider the set of accounting policies and negative accruals potentially available to managers. Our focus is on the incentives for and constraints on management to make asset writedowns. We find that the magnitude of writedowns observed are associated with managers' incentives to writedown impaired assets that have declined in value, as well as the firm's capacity to absorb the financial statement effects of the writedown. The number of senior management changes found to be associated with greater writedowns in prior studies is also supported in this study when only writedowns taken to the income statement are considered. The quality of corporate governance mechanisms does not vary systematically with the magnitude of writedowns.