通货膨胀如何影响股票回报——基于债务融资的视角

大部分研究发现实际通货膨胀率与股票回报呈现出负相关关系,但对于两者为何呈现这样的关系并未提供相关的实证证据。我们认为其主要原因在于缺乏通货膨胀到股票回报之间中间渠道的认识与分析。因此,本文依据我国通货膨胀指标,基于通货膨胀影响企业债务融资行为的研究视角,实证检验发现,当通货膨胀率上升时,企业会增加债务融资,而债务融资比例的上升进一步提升了企业风险,并且通货膨胀与股票回报的负相关关系主要通过债务融资渠道进行传导;上述现象在国有企业以及融资约束较弱的企业表现得更为明显。本文的研究为通货膨胀与股票回报之间的负相关关系提供了微观层面的解释视角。     

实际股票收益率与通货膨胀率关系的实证研究

股票收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系至今仍无定论.采用1991年1月到2011年8月的月度数据,运用VAR模型对我国的股票收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系进行实证分析,结果发现不论是预期的通货膨胀还是非预期的通货膨胀与股票实际收益率都是负相关关系.表明费雪效应在我国不成立,股票并不是对冲通货膨胀风险的理想工具.     

基于前景理论的中国股市“特质波动率之谜”研究

近年来,关于股市"特质波动率之谜"的研究众多,但尚未有一致的认识。本文运用行为金融学的思想,基于前景理论,从理论和实证两方面研究投资者行为是否对股票特质风险与预期收益的关系产生影响。通过二维分组法和横截面回归法实证发现:我国股市特质风险与预期收益间存在反向关系,并且这种反向关系在股票处于获利域时得到进一步加强,说明股票未实现的资本利得确实影响了特质风险与预期收益间的关系。本文结合我国股市发展现状合理解释了实证结果,有利于进一步深化对投资者行为的重要性的认识。     

中国货币政策与股票横截面收益研究

本文基于沪深股市1993～2008年剔除了金融类股的所有A股数据,研究了中国证券市场上货币政策与股票横截面收益之间的关系。本文发现,在货币紧缩情况下,股票的Beta值与股票收益是成正比例关系的,而在货币扩张情况下,这种正比关系的程度减小,股票的Beta越大,其收益反而减小;在货币紧缩情况下,股票的市值规模与股票收益是成反比例关系的,而在货币扩张情况下,这种反比关系的程度变大,股票的市值规模越小,其收益增加的程度更大;在货币紧缩情况下,股票的账面市值比与股票收益是成正比例关系的,而在货币扩张情况下,这种正比关系的程度变大,股票的账面市值比越大,其收益增加的程度也越大。     

会计信息对股票市场解释能力的实证分析

近年来,西方学者对会计信息与股票市场的关系进行了大量的实证研究,证实会计收益与股票收益有很强的正相关关系,并进一步对现金流量指标是否具有增量信息展开了讨论。我国的情况如何?本文从实证的角度分析会计收益、现金流量指标与股票收益之间的关系,结果显示我国的会计收益与股票收益高度相关,现金流量也对股票收益具有解释能力;综合会计收益与现金流量指标的多元回归模型优于一元回归模型;拟合程度随着时间间隔的扩大而提高。     

公司规模对违约异象的解释:来自A股市场的证据

关于违约风险与股票收益的关系,现有文献中存在着争议。本文使用国内A股市场2000-2016年间的数据,结合Moody’s KMV模型构建期望违约概率作为违约风险的代理变量,对二者关系进行重新探索。经过初步分析发现违约风险与股票收益存在显著负相关,即国内股市存在"违约异象"(default risk anomaly)。为此,本文从公司规模会为股东带来潜在利益的角度展开研究,并对"违约异象"进行了解释。结论表明:(1)在控制住公司规模的交互影响后,违约风险与股票收益表现出符合金融理论预期的正相关关系;(2)在相同违约风险下,规模越大的公司,投资者要求的违约风险溢价越小。同时,随着违约风险上升,公司规模的影响会加大;(3)在公司规模足够大时,违约风险与股票收益总体上会表现出负相关关系,这是导致"违约异象"的主要原因之一。随着近年来我国违约事件增多以及破产制度和退市制度逐步完善,投资者势必会更加重视违约风险与股票收益之间的关系及其影响因素,因此本研究具有一定的现实意义。     

储蓄存款变动率与股票收益率关系的实证分析

本文对2003年2月至2010年7月的各种银行存款变动率与股票收益率之间的关系进行了计量经济分析,发现:1.居民定期存款变动率与股票收益率呈负相关关系.2.2003年2月至2007年6月股票收益率与企事业活期存款变动率呈负相关,而2007年7月至2010年7月,却呈正相关关系,并且格兰杰因果关系在1%水平上显著,说明前者对后者存在单向的影响关系.这一结果在一定程度上可以解释股票全流通后大小非出货套现的行为.     

ETF资金流、市场收益与投资者情绪——来自A股市场的经验证据

本文对A股市场ETF总资金流与市场收益的关系进行了研究,将国内已有研究由传统型开放式基金扩展到ETF这种新型金融衍生产品。结论显示:负反馈交易假说和套期保值假说能够解释市场收益对ETF总资金流的影响;而对于ETF总资金流对市场收益的影响,金融危机前主要由价格压力假说间接解释,金融危机后则由投资者情绪假说所解释,资本市场总资金量和ETF投资者结构的变动是导致上述差异产生的主要原因。     

分析师评级修订对股票收益的过度反应：一种“合谋”

采用2003-2014年的数据,考察分析师评级修订时是否会对股票收益过度反应,哪些因素有可能加剧或者抑制过度反应的程度.研究发现:仅明星分析师评级修订时会对无形股票收益反应过度;当机构投资者重仓持股或上市公司高管计划减持股票时,明星分析师评级修订对无形股票收益的过度反应程度会加剧;当法律环境变得更加严格或明星分析师所任职券商的规模加大时,其评级修订对无形股票收益的过度反应程度将会降低.这一研究结论与本文提出的"合谋假说"更加一致,但与以往文献中基于行为金融学视角所提出的"过度自信假说"以及基于利益冲突视角所提出的"迎合假说"并不一致.     

我国银行业股票收益影响因素实证研究

本文选取银行业股票指数以及相关的影响因素指标,对其2006年1月至2016年9月的数据进行实证分析,结果发现我国银行业股票收益水平与宏观经济变量及行业特性指标之间存在长期均衡关系,其中广义货币供应量M2会对银行业股票收益会造成负向的显著影响,而财政支出、银行类金融机构人民币存款余额、银行类金融机构人民币贷款余额及房地产行业指数均对银行业股票收益具有正向的影响效应,且房地产行业指数对银行业股票收益变化的解释力度最强。金融业GDP、CPI、银行间同业拆借30天加权平均利率、金融业固定资产投资额及不良贷款余额对银行业股票收益的影响并不显著。     

Asset Pricing and Expected Inflation

This paper provides an equilibrium model in which expected real returns on common stocks are negatively related to expected inflation and money growth. It is shown that the fall in real wealth associated with an increase in expected inflation decreases the real rate of interest and the expected real rate of return of the market portfolio. The expected real rate of return of the market portfolio falls less, for a given increase in expected inflation, when the increase in expected inflation is caused by an increase in money growth rather than by a worsening of the investment opportunity set. The model has empirical implications for the effect of a change in expected inflation on the cross-sectional distribution of asset returns and can help to understand why assets whose return covaries positively with expected inflation may have lower expected returns. The model also agrees with explanations advanced by Fama [5] and Geske and Roll [10] for the negative relation between stock returns and inflation.     

Real Stock Returns and Inflation

This paper develops the relation between the real rate of return on the stock market and changes in the price level using a multiperiod economy with production. The observed relation between real ex post stock returns and inflation is shown to be consistent with equilibrium in an economy with rational investors. The relation between expected real returns and expected inflation is shown to depend on the form of the economy's production function and on the form of investor preferences. When the production function exhibits stochastic constant returns to scale, the model explains the negative relation between expected real returns and expected inflation which has frequently been observed in empirical studies.     

中国股债市场长期动态相关性的影响因素研究——基于宏观不确定性和协动性视角

本文借鉴现代宏观经济学中的无套利仿射模型,基于"定价核"的定价方式,将股票市场和债券市场收益率之间的相关系数分解为其主要驱动因素--通货膨胀、真实利率和股息率的不确定性,以及三者之间的协方差。在实证部分,采用DCC-MGARCH模型计算股票市场和债券市场收益率的动态相关系数,验证中国股债相关性的时变规则;进而通过回归分析探究所选取的解释变量对中国股债相关性的贡献。结果表明,通货膨胀和股息率的不确定性以及真实利率与通货膨胀和股息率各自之间的协动性是影响这种相关性的主要因素;通胀冲击、真实利率和股息率可以解释这种相关性与长期动态的暂时背离。其中,通货膨胀和股息率的不确定性对股债相关性的影响与其他欧美主要经济体有着不同的表现,反映了中国市场的特殊性;此外,相较于中国经济市场的平稳时期,股市动荡期间各经济因素的影响会发生改变,且模型解释力会降低。     

资本市场收益与通货膨胀:对新兴市场的进一步检验

本文对中国、印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、韩国和泰国六个新兴市场国家的股票回报率和通货膨胀率之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,在中国和菲律宾,名义股票回报率和通胀率之间存在正相关关系,但在其它四个国家,并未发现同样的关系存在。这表明股票作为通货膨胀的对冲工具,可能仅在个别国家里成立。此外,本文还对真实回报率和通胀率之间的关系进行了检验,结果普遍表明当期通胀率和单期滞后通胀率对真实股票回报率有负的影响。     

The dynamics of economic growth,oil prices,stock market depth,and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries

This paper examines the linkages between economic growth, oil prices, depth in the stock market, and three other key macroeconomic indicators: real effective exchange rate, inflation rate, and real rate of interest. We employ a panel vector autoregressive model to test Granger causality for the G-20 countries over the period 1961–2012. A novel approach to this study is that we clearly demarcate the long-run and short-run relations between the economic variables. The results show a robust long-run economic relationship between economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, real effective exchange rate, inflation rate, and real rate of interest. In the long run, real economic growth is found to respond to any deviation in the long-run equilibrium relationship that is found to exist between the different measures of stock market depth, oil prices, and the other macroeconomic variables. In the short run we find a complex network of causal relationships between the variables. While the empirical evidence of short-run causality is mixed, there is clear evidence that real economic growth responds to various measures of stock market depth, allowing for real oil price movements and changes in the real effective exchange rate, inflation rate, and real rate of interest.     

Common stock returns,real activity,money, and inflation: Some international evidence

This paper tests whether the negative relationship between real stock returns and inflation in the United States is in fact proxying for a positive relationship between stock returns and real activity variables in six major industrial countries over 1966–1979. Consistent with Fama's ‘proxy-effect’ hypothesis, we document a negative relationship between inflation and real activity and a positive one between real stock returns and real activity variables. Real activity variables dominate money growth rates and expected and unexpected inflation in explaining real stock returns. A puzzling result that still remains is the positive role of money and the negative role of expected inflation in explaining these real stock returns in all major industrial countries.     

Dynamic Interactions among the Stock Market,Federal Funds Rate,Inflation, and Economic Activity

This paper examines the dynamic interactions among the equity market, economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy under three monetary policy regimes using bivariate and multivariate vector autoregressive cointegrating specifications. The bivariate results for the real stock returns‐inflation pair weakly support a negative correlation in the 1970s and 1980s. While the bivariate findings suggest a weak, negative relationship between real returns and the federal funds in the 1970s and 1980s, the multivariate findings strongly support short‐term linkages in the 1970s. There appears to be no consistent dynamic relationship between monetary policy and stock prices in that the relationship differs across monetary regimes.     

Are common stocks a good hedge against inflation? Evidence from the Pacific-rim countries

We explore whether the observed real stock return–inflation relations in the U.S. and 10 Pacific-rim countries for the sample period of 1970–1997 can be explained by the interaction between real and monetary disturbances. Ten countries exhibit a negative relation between real stock returns and inflation. Malaysia is the only country that exhibits a positive relation. For nine countries, real output disturbances drive a negative stock return–inflation relation, while monetary disturbances yield a positive relation. In addition, real shock components appear to be relatively more important than monetary shock components for these countries, and as a result the observed relation between stock returns and inflation is negative. Neither the tax hypothesis nor the monetary regime hypothesis seems to be easily compatible with the diverse experiences of the Pacific-rim countries.     

Stock market synchronization and monetary integration

This paper focuses on the relationship between stock market comovements and monetary integration. A panel specification is used to explain bilateral stock market return correlations between fifteen developed economies over the period 1975-2006. Time fixed effects are included to capture global shocks and we also examine the role of bilateral trade linkages and international financial integration. Monetary integration leads to stronger stock market synchronization, both through the elimination of exchange rate volatility and through the common monetary policy and the convergence of inflation expectations. Trade and financial integration also contribute to higher stock market return comovements.     

The Irrelevance of Capital Structure for the Impact of Inflation on Investment

Studies concerning the effect of inflation on firms' investment decisions suggest that the form of financing is relevant in assessing the effect of inflation on investment. This paper demonstrates that when the equilibrium relationship between market rates of return on bonds and stocks is considered, the effect of inflation on investment is independent of the capital structure. The paper also shows that when the ‘Fisher effect’ is assumed to hold, the cut-off rate of return on investment declines with anticipated inflation independently of the financing. However, if the real interest rate rises with inflation, inflation may increase the cut-off rate.