ASSESSING THE VALUE OF ECONOMICS RESEARCH: THE CASE OF THE BIAS IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

Economists provide sometimes contradictory information about economic systems that contribute to policy design. How does one value this type of knowledge? A political‐economic game is presented that allows for reinforcing and contradictory research messages. Policy makers are assumed to follow a Bayesian decision theory process and the model is tested with quantitative estimates of the value of research on the degree of bias in the Consumer Price Index. Most economists agree that a bias exists, but published estimates vary widely. A blue‐ribbon panel of economists recommended revisions to how the index is calculated, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics subsequently made revisions that differed from their original plans, but how much influence did the panel really have on the revisions? (JEL Z00)     

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF NON‐TRADITIONAL MONETARY POLICY MEASURES: THE CASE OF THE BANK OF JAPAN*

This paper summarizes non‐traditional monetary policy measures adopted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) during the last 2 decades and by other G7 central banks since the start of the current global financial turmoil and analyses the effectiveness of such measures. The paper begins with a typology of policies usable near the zero lower bound on interest rates. They are: (i) forward guidance of future policy rates; (ii) targeted asset purchases; and (iii) quantitative easing. Using this typology, I review the measures adopted by the BOJ and other central banks. I then offer a news analysis of the effects of the measures adopted by the BOJ on asset prices, comparing them with those adopted by the Fed. Many of the measures, with the exception of strategy (iii), are shown to have moved asset prices in the expected directions. Another exception is that most of the monetary easing measures failed to weaken the yen. Despite some effects on asset prices, however, the measures have failed to stop the deflationary trend of the Japanese economy clearly. I discuss some possible reasons for this and more general implications for monetary policy.     

OMITTED VARIABLES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF A LABOR QUALITY INDEX: THE CASE OF SPAIN

Traditional measures of labor quality might have the shortcoming of missing some features of the very important increase in labor utilization within European countries. In particular, we explore the case of Spain. Despite showing one of the most important increases in labor quality in the EU according to standard methods, it also presents a negative TFP growth. The paper shows the importance of considering—on top of observed changes in the composition of the labor force by gender, age, education, tenure, and nationality—changes in both average and relative productivities of those abovementioned socio‐demographic groups over time. We first use a time varying weight index in order to capture the decrease in relative productivities across characteristics. Once this issue is considered the estimated growth of labor quality decreases notably and the index becomes flat between 2002 and 2006. We relate this slowdown to the increasing over‐education of the Spanish workforce in the recent past. We then incorporate a selection model into the labor force. We argue that in the recent past there has been a massive entry of workers with below average unobserved abilities, generating a decrease in quality of labor. Indeed labor quality slightly decreased from 1995 onwards (always increasing without the selection model).     

THE TIME LAG IN ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD-BASED INCOME MEASURES: ASSESSING AND CORRECTING THE BIAS

Annual income data are typically provided with a time lag. This article reviews several ways of dealing with this time lag in the construction of annual household-based income measures for individual economic well-being. It also proposes an alternative method that yields better estimates for equivalized household income, especially in the case of household composition change. Next, the two most commonly applied income measures are compared to this alternative measure with empirical income data from the European Community Household Panel. This comparison reveals that ignoring the time lag and household changes leads to substantial bias in income and poverty estimates and to erroneous conclusions about the determinants of poverty entry. The evidence in this article will be useful to researchers who want to make a well-informed choice between different annual income measures.     

基于产出模型的耕地价格评估方法

要实现耕地资源的可持续利用，需要建立耕地资源可持续利用的经济约束机制，而这种机制必须以耕地资源价值核算为基础。文章详细分析了耕地产出的影响因子，并针对具体情况，初步确立了适宜我国国情的耕地产出模型，提出了相应的耕地价格评估方法，同时以江苏省吴江市为例，对该方法进行了实际应用，并和他人的研究成果进行了比较，评述了本方法的优缺点。     

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE QUANTITY‐QUALITY BALANCE IN MONOPOLY*

This paper describes how a monopolist manipulates the balance of quantity and quality in order to increase revenue when its customers treat quantity and quality as substitutes. This ‘skewing’ of quality depends on the characteristics of customer's demand for quality. Customers differ in demand for quality, because they differ in either (i) their preferences and/or (ii) their time cost per unit. The monopolist is constrained to supply the same quality of good to all customers. The price and quality per unit are described under the assumption the monopolist (i) profit maximises; (ii) maximises social welfare subject to a profit constraint. The determinants of the skewing of quantity and quality are found under third‐degree price discrimination and uniform pricing.     

ASSESSMENT OF WEYMARK'S MEASURES OF EXCHANGE MARKET INTERVENTION: THE CASE OF JAPAN

Abstract.  This paper assesses the validity of the index of foreign exchange market intervention proposed by Weymark. We construct the Weymark index for Japan and then compare it with Japanese public intervention data to evaluate its performance. The results suggest that research using the Weymark index should be interpreted with caution.     

OUTPUT AND PRICES IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON PROJECT*

In this paper we discuss a few of the problems that have been encountered in defining output and in comparing prices for the International Comparison Project (ICP). We report also on the way in which these problems are being met. The ICP has for its purpose the establishment of a systematic set of procedures for making international comparisons of gross domestic product (GDP) and of the purchasing power of currencies. Substantive work on comparisons involving Colombia, the European Economic Community (EEC), Hungary, India, Japan, Kenya, the United Kingdom and the United States is also being carried on with the aid of the statistical services of the countries and of the EEC. It is hoped to expand the comparisons beyond these countries as rapidly as possible.     

MEASURING QUANTITY‐QUALITY TRADE‐OFFS IN REGULATION: THE BRAZILIAN FREIGHT RAILWAYS CASE*

ABSTRACT ** ** Résumé en fin d'article; Zusammenfassung am Ende des Artikels; resumen al fin del artículo.
: The quantity vs. quality trade‐offs in network industries are well known from the theoretical literature and have been the subject of many empirical assessments, although mostly for the telecoms and energy sectors. The purpose of this paper is to expand the evidence for the railway sector by documenting the importance of this trade‐off in the context of the Brazilian freight railway industry reform, the first example of a railway sector in which tariff revisions are subject to joint output and quality performance indicators. The analysis is based on the calculation of the Malmquist productivity index proposed by Färe et al. (1995) . The decomposable nature of this total factor productivity (TFP) index reveals the prevalence of quantity‐quality trade‐offs up to the end of the reform period, but a positive correlation between them during the period just afterwards. This type of information would certainly be useful for regulation purposes, particularly as an alternative way of taking into account quality without introducing complex, and very often ineffective, penalty schemes.     

ON THE OUTPUT EFFECTS OF BARRIERS TO TRADE*

We study the macroeconomic effects of international trade policy by integrating a Hecksher–Ohlin trade model into an optimal‐growth framework. The model predicts that a more open economy will have higher factor productivity. Furthermore, there is a “selective development trap” to which countries may or may not converge, depending on policy. Income at the development trap falls as trade barriers increase. Hence, cross‐country differences in barriers to trade may help explain the dispersion of per capita income observed across countries. The effects are quantified, and we show that protectionism can explain a relevant fraction of TFP and long‐run income differentials across countries.     

PRICE-COST MARGINS AND INDUSTRY STRUCTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF KOREA*

The structure-conduct-performance paradigm is tested using 4-digit SIC Korean industry data for 1981 and 1986. The study investigates whether the observed institutional differences between developed and developing countries affects the performance hypothesis. The results suggest that structure and conduct variables influence price-cost margins in much the same way as they do in developed countries. Nevertheless, the Korean government's credit rationing policies, by creating entry barriers, have the most important effects on industry performance.     

THE FOUNDATION OF MARKET QUALITY ECONOMICS*

This study is based on my observation that high quality markets are indispensable for the healthy growth of a modern economy. Many problems surrounding markets are attributable to the lack of high quality markets. An industrial revolution creates extremely vibrant but unhealthy markets. This study introduces a concept of fairness in dealing and pricing (competitive fairness), which differs from efficiency, and defines market quality as a measure for the efficiency of allocation and the fairness of dealing and pricing. This study shows that competitive fairness is achieved by several market mechanisms that I constructed in my previous work.     

ECONOMIES OF SCOPE FOR MICROFINANCE: DIFFERENCES ACROSS OUTPUT MEASURES

In banking, scope economies of mobilizing deposits and lending are often estimated, while consideration of the same measures for microfinance institutions (MFI) is still in its infancy. An open issue remains regarding what characterizes an output of an MFI. Moreover, depending on the output used, do estimated scope economies differ? We use a novel data set for over 800 MFI across more than 70 countries to estimate economies of scope. Our findings suggest that statistical differences arise between estimates of scope economies. However, our qualitative findings indicate that both of these measures provide similar overviews of the landscape of scope economies for MFI.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF HOUSING OUTPUT: U.S. AND SOVIET CASE STUDIES

This paper examines the measurement of the output of the Housing industry in real GNP accounts of the U.S., the Soviet Union, and selected OECD countries. These real GNP accounts make use of quite different Housing indexes, based on different types of data. This paper's major empirical finding is that the (measured) growth rate of Housing output can be extremely sensitive to the type of index used.
After reviewing the concept of housing quality, the paper presents U.S. and Soviet case studies. The BEA and the CIA do not use identical procedures to measure Housing output for the U.S. and the Soviet Union: the BEA measures many more aspects of housing quality improvements than the CIA does. This difference in the two agencies' procedures increases the growth rate of the US. Real Estate industry relative to the growth rate of the Soviet Housing industry. The idea behind the two case studies is to remeasure Housing output far the Soviet Union (U.S.) using an index that approximates the BEA (CIA) index. The purpose of these studies is the calculation of numerical magnitudes: to what degrees are the levels and growth rates of Housing sensitive to the type of index that is used. The calculations for the U.S. are useful because they show the important role of housing quality growth in the U.S., and because they make the magnitudes reported for the Soviet Union more credible. The Soviet case study provides numerical support for the proposition that the post-WWII growth rate of Soviet housing quality has been considerable and exceeds the growth rate implicit in the CIA output figures.