Climatic impact on China's residential electricity consumption: Does the income level matter?

It is widely accepted that energy use contributes to climate change. However, climate change can also affect energy demand. There is ample proof in the literature that a feedback phenomenon exists. However, empirical evidence of its mechanism and operation in different contexts is missing. As China is the largest consumer of electricity worldwide, a detailed study of its energy consumption patterns would be insightful. Moreover, how the increasing income of Chinese residents affects the climate sensitivity of electricity demand is particularly relevant. Using data from 278 cities in China over the period 2005 to 2015, this study applies a newly developed technique, partially linear functional-coefficient panel data model, which enables disclosure of the role of income levels. The results indicate that climate change significantly stimulates residential electricity consumption in hot weather rather than in cold weather. Additionally, the level of income affects climate sensitivity. Specifically, an increase in income initially increases the marginal effect of cooling degree days (days on which building cooling is desired) on electricity consumption, but the curve of the marginal increment becomes flat as income growth increases further.     

Refining estimates of air conditioning energy consumption in Asian countries: stock volume and energy efficiency labeling and standard

In order to evaluate how the standard and labeling program for energy efficiency reduces energy demand in an economy, we must know how many appliances work and the total energy consumption capacity developed before and after the introduction of the program. This paper calculates the stock of air conditioners and its total electricity consumption capacity based on GfK market survey and collected data by authors. The results show that Japan has experienced a substantial reduction of electricity demand from air conditioning overall in the economy. However, Thailand and China maintain their average electricity consumption levels, but are unable to reduce total demand. A study of the energy efficiency standard-labeling mechanism development and market outcomes reveals that Thailand and China fail to continuously improve energy efficiency, although the mechanism curbed the increasing inefficiency. This implies that China’s and Thailand’s mechanisms need to raise the upper bound of the distribution of energy efficiency.     

Energy consumption of urban households in China

We estimate China urban household energy demand as part of a complete system of consumption demand so that it can be used in economy-wide models. This allows us to derive cross-price elasticities unlike studies which focus on one type of energy. We implement a two-stage approach and explicitly account for electricity, domestic fuels and transportation demand in the first stage and gasoline, coal, LPG and gas demand in the second stage. We find income inelastic demand for electricity and home energy, but the elasticity is higher than estimates in the rich countries. Demand for total transportation is income elastic. The price elasticity for electricity is estimated to be −0.5 and in the range of other estimates for China, and similar to long-run elasticities estimated for the U.S.     

新疆煤电转化与西电东送的SWOT分析

本文利用SWOT分析技术对新疆煤电转化与西电东送面对的机遇、优势、劣势进行了分析,由于新疆的区位条件差异、国家鼓励开发可再生能源政策、火电环境污染等因素将限制新疆实施煤电转化和西电东送,在短期内不可能实施西电东送工程,只能立足于疆内消费,新疆可充分发挥煤炭资源丰富的优势,走"煤―电-高载能产业"一体化道路和"煤―化工"产业道路,同时应充分利用丰富的水能、风能和太阳能资源,积极发展绿色能源,建立西电东送绿色走廊。     

中国电力能源效率影响因素研究

论文选取我国29个省、市、自治区2000—2009年10年的面板数据,利用面板平滑转换模型深入分析产业结构、能源消费结构、技术进步、对外开放程度及电力价格五大因素对电力能源效率的影响程度及影响机制,结果显示：①第二产业的比重对电力能源效率具有负向影响,但随着产业结构的不断优化升级,电力能源效率反而逐渐提升;②电力消费量占能源消费总量的比重对电力能源效率的提高具有反作用;③技术进步水平、进出口贸易总额占GDP比重均会促进电力能源效率的提高;④电力价格对电力能源效率的影响不明显,若想通过调整电价来大幅提高我国的电力能源效率,效果可能并不显著,但对于寻找替代能源、发展清洁新能源可能会有一定的促进作用。最后,有针对性地为提高我国的电力能源效率提出政策建议。     

Residential responses to service-specific electricity demand: Case of China

Understanding the diversity of the residential demand for various electrical services is critical for utilities and policymakers in conducting effective demand side management and narrowing urban-rural inequality. Previous research has usually treated the household as a unit of analysis, and thus may have ignored the fact that household electricity consumption is derived demand driven by specific services, which fails to examine the heterogeneous behavioral responses. Therefore, this paper presents a new pattern of residential demand for various electrical services and quantifies the impacts of socioeconomic determinants in China. The conditional demand analysis is performed on the unique dataset of the Chinese Residential Energy Consumption Survey of 2014 to estimate the electricity demand distribution in eight types of services and to investigate the effect of socioeconomic variables on service-specific electricity consumption. The results show that, together, entertainment and food refrigeration account for about half of the total annual electricity consumption, followed by laundry, lighting, space cooling, and hot water. Rural households use about 7.2% of total electricity for cooking purposes, while urban counterparts hardly use electricity to cook at all. Electricity consumption for space heating is negligible for both urban and rural households. Heterogeneity in socioeconomic determinants is found not only among different electrical services but also between urban and rural households.     

电力消费和经济增长：来自中国的证据

对1971—2009年中国人均实际GDP和人均耗电量的Zivot-Andrews单位根检验表明,两序列都是带有结构突变的趋势平稳过程,所以,采用两种方法检验两者间的因果关系:基于VAR的Dolado-Lütkepo检验,和基于去势数据的Granger因果检验。两种检验都取得了从人均耗电量到人均实际GDP的单向因果关系的有力证据。这意味着电力供应对满足日益增长的用电量,从而维持中国经济增长是至关重要的。     

阶梯电价对重庆市城镇居民用电量影响效果

根据重庆市某区域所有城镇居民实际用电量数据,对比阶梯电价对城镇居民不同群体、不同月份用电量变化的影响:温度偏高(27℃)月份影响低收入群体十分明显;温度偏高或偏低(10℃左右)月份对中等收入群体影响均较明显;对高收入群体同样产生有效影响;极端温度月份对低收入群体影响大于对中收入群体的影响。通过阶梯电价实施前后各月用电量的帕累托曲线,对重庆现有电价分档标准进行了分析,建议将7~9月第一档电量上调至300 kWh。     

经济增长、结构变迁与中国能源消费——基于半参数广义可加模型的经验研究

为改进以往大多数文献采用的参数估计方法的不足,文章通过构建半参数广义可加模型,区分全国整体、产业部门、能源品种、不同区域等多个层次,实证研究了经济增长、结构变迁与中国能源消费的关系.文章研究证实,经济增长对中国人均能耗增长具有显著正向影响,而调整经济结构、改变能源供给结构、加快技术进步等都有助于降低中国人均能耗水平.但是,文章发现中国存在“隐性的能耗反弹”,因此,对中国而言,结构调整结合技术进步的方式,尚不能取得持续性的预期效果,这提示中国政策制定者应将一部分关注点转移到开征能源税、实行差别化的价格管制等方向.而本文区分能源品种后的研究结果则暗示两次金融危机可能与火电消费量呈负向关系,一定程度上可以解释金融危机后中国发电量下降而经济仍然增长的现象.此外,文章非参数部分的拟合结果显示二产比重对能源消费的影响存在拐点,所以,从能耗角度解释,经济结构调整需要有一定限度.     

The relationship between an electricity supply ceiling and economic growth: An application of disequilibrium modeling to Taiwan

Using a disequilibrium model, we investigate the relationship between the supply constraint of electricity generation capacity and electricity demand in Taiwan. We find that electricity consumption faced supply constraints in Taiwan between 1959 and 1972, but that generation capacity grew rapidly after 1973, such that economic growth came to be the major determinant of electricity consumption. Our experience in fitting this disequilibrium model suggests that simple causality tests are not a proper means to understand the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Our results also suggest, at least for developing countries, that an electricity supply constraint sometimes plays an important role when investigating the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.     

欧洲控制石油消费的经验及其对我国的启示

目前我国经济处在高速发展期,陷入了极大的石油需求和我国油气资源先天不足的两难境地。1973年石油危机以来,欧盟各国纷纷采取节油措施,但是其经济也得到了良好的发展,我国应借鉴欧盟国家的发展策略。为此文章总结了欧盟的节油措施：直接节油举措;以气代油;发展核电和水电;其它的节油措施如产业结构调整等。文章最后提出了我国应该在政策上要有效地引导石油的节约消费、发展天然气产业和大力发展核能水电新能源以及要积极推动我国的产业升级和产业结构优化等几个方面的建议。     

Recent advances in energy demand research in China

The continuously accelerating global energy demand leads to increased public concern about climate change. The international community expects China, the world's largest energy consumer, to play a leading role in the energy transition, especially since the United States has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. This special issue on “Energy Demand in Emerging and Developing Economies: Measurement, Policy Interventions and Evaluation” improves international understanding of the patterns of energy demand in China by presenting recent experimental and empirical research following the Beijing Energy Conference in 2018. The main purpose of this introductory article is to present recent research advances by summarizing new findings and insights from this special issue, combined with recent literature. It shows that China's rising energy demand and energy transition practices have led to numerous policy interventions, which provides rich observational data on behavioral change and offers an “experimental window” with large opportunities for scholars. Beyond the traditional topics of residential and industrial energy demand and its drivers, an increasing number of studies focuses on energy policy evaluation or quantify the environmental and climate consequences of energy consumption. This new line of research, supported by policy-oriented model-based quantitative analyses, experimental approaches and econometric analyses using multi-source disaggregated data, offers new insights into various aspects of China's energy demand.     

民生支出对城乡居民消费的影响及解释——基于省级动态面板数据的分析

本文采用1978-2010年省级数据,运用动态面板模型考察了政府民生支出对东、中、西部地区城乡居民消费的影响,研究表明改革开放以来民生支出对我国居民消费具有明显的挤入作用,但其政策效应存在着的地区和城乡差异。造成这种差异的原因在于,我国的经济体制改革使得城乡居民具有明显的预防性储蓄动机,其中支出不确定性对农村居民消费支出的负向影响大于城镇居民。     

收入差距、房价与消费变动——基于面板数据联立方程模型的分析

正确理清收入差距与房地产价格的关系,探知其对消费的影响,是实现我国扩大内需战略所面临的重要问题。本文基于我国的2000-2008年31个省、市(自治区)的面板数据,构造联立方程模型,深入探讨了收入差距、房地产价格与消费的关系,结果发现,收入差距与房价之间存在着正向的互动关系,但是对消费的影响却呈现出一定的区域差异,在东中部地区,收入差距与房价之间这种相互强化的关系,使得代表消费主体的广大中低收入群体的住房负担加重,不得不减少消费。但是在西部地区,由于住房负担相对较轻,能正向发挥财富效应,所以收入差距与房价之间的互动影响,反而促进了消费。这种差异正好折射出我国区域经济发展的不平衡性。因此,有必要通过对收入分配的合理调整,实施稳健的货币政策和有效的住房保障政策来科学调控房价,进而切实促进消费。     

清洁发展机制(CDM)项目在中国区域分布结构——基于中国各省市面板数据的实证研究

清洁发展机制(CDM)是我国实现低碳经济发展的需要。文章考察了我国2007-2012年31个省、市、自治区的CDM项目数量,借鉴离散型非线性模型——负二项式模型,运用面板数据对CDM在中国区域分布结构进行回归分析。结果表明,地区人均GDP、电力消费、第三产业发展水平以及外商投资对CDM项目分布结构存在影响:地区人均GDP和第三产业发展水平对CDM项目分布存在负向影响;电力消费对CDM项目分布存在正向影响;外商投资与CDM项目则存在非线性U型关系。最后,从我国碳减排、碳交易市场建立方面给出政策启示。     

我国四大经济区能源效率差异及其影响因素分析——基于单阶段随机前沿模型

运用单阶段随机前沿方法,对2001-2012年我国四大经济区能源效率及其影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明,四大经济区在样本期内的能源效率呈逐步上升趋势,2001-2005上升水平较缓,自2006年起效率上升速度加快,表明"十一五"时期节能减耗政策效果明显;能源效率总体较低,有很大的提升空间,呈现出东高西低的典型区域分布特征。对非效率因素的整体分析表明能源效率同能源投资、引进外资间为正相关,与产业结构、能源消费结构和能源禀赋间呈负相关关系。     

Cigarette and Alcohol Expenditures in Malaysia: Implications for Anti‐Smoking and Drinking Policies*

A number of studies have examined alcohol and cigarette consumption, but none have explored demand for both products simultaneously even though consumption decisions are likely often related. The present study uses microdata from the 2009/2010 Malaysian Household Expenditure Survey. A novel bivariate Tobit model that accounts for error heteroscedasticity is used to estimate Malaysian consumers' decisions to purchase cigarettes and alcohol and amount spent for each. The results indicate that household income and regional location, and the age, gender, education level and occupation type of the household head are associated with consumption decisions and expenditure levels, with some variation by ethnic group, suggesting the importance of these characteristics in policy deliberations to reduce consumption.     

考虑需求响应及其不确定性的台区三相不平衡治理

计及电力用户电量需求调整不确定性,建立了价格型需求响应模糊模型;基于可信性理论,考虑电力用户用电量与用电支出满意度,建立了台区负荷调整的模糊机会约束规划模型;利用清晰等价类方法对模糊机会约束进行处理,以台区三相用户用电偏差最小为目标,对A、B、C三相电力用户日前电价进行调整。算例表明所提治理措施能够减小台区三相不平衡度,降低台区负荷峰谷差,控制用户的用电成本,为三相不平衡治理提供新的思路。     

Elasticity of Energy Demand and Challenges for China＇s Energy Industry

I. Introduction Since late 2002, China’s energy demand and resources have become one of the most prominent issues in international discussions of energy. In our earlier studies of China’s energy demand as relates to transportation and urbanization (Gates and Yin, 2002; Yin and Gates, 2002), we took more of a long-term view and raised the possibility that even if China’s economy continued to grow rather slowly, which was the prevailing perception at the time, there would still be strong d…     

Regional Differences in China＇s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Potentials

This paper investigates the maximum energy efficiency level and the energy saving potentials in each region in China that can be practically attained at current economic and technological development levels. Most of the nation's energy efficient provinces are found along the coast of southeast China, while most of its least energy efficient provinces are in the hinterland that is rich in coal resources, and which depends heavily on coal consumption. China's low efficiency in energy resource allocation stems from its secondary industry, which is handicapped by the lowest energy efficiency and the most striking regional differentials. A comparison of the factors affecting the energy efficiency shows that the provinces being compared in this study differ tremendously in energy consumption structure, technological level of the secondary industry, and abundance of energy resources, and that the other factors are only adequate, rather than necessary, conditions. It is imperative to rectify the behaviors of provinces in balancing local energy allocation, to channel energy resources to energy efficient provinces, and to improve the national energy efficiency as a whole. When taking energy‐saving steps, provinces must take into full consideration both the national and local factors that affect energy efficiency. Furthermore, it is unrealistic for China to set a unified energy saving goal for different provinces. (Edited by Xinyu Fan)