Unilateral liberalisation and WTO GATS commitments: the telecommunications sector in selected countries

This paper examines how unilateral liberalisation of the telecommunications sector affected WTO Member countries' commitments in the GATS of the WTO. It is argued from observations and interviews that unilateral liberalisation provides a basis for making WTO commitments. The differing objectives of WTO Members, their attitudes towards reform (strong reformer or lukewarm supporter of reforms), and country-specific sensitivities appear to be factors responsible for the observed differences between unilateral reforms and GATS commitments in the telecommunications sector.     

中性贸易政策与我国加入WTO

我国加入WTO,向中性贸易政策过渡 我国为了加入WTO,已经在贸易体制方面进行了很多改革。从最近中美关于中国加入世界贸易组织的谈判达成协议的主要内容来看,我国的改革差不多达到了WTO的要求。(1)我国的关税降低到了比较低的水平,由于我国各个部门发展的程度不一样,关税的削减情况也不一样。总的来说,全面削减关……     

China's impact on South African trade and inflation

There has been much controversy about the impact of Chinese growth on the rest of the world. It is generally accepted that China has a dampening effect on global inflation through the supply of cheap products. On the other hand, imports from China could displace domestic production and hence have adverse effects on economic growth and employment. Thus, the question of whether a country benefits from trading with China is a country-specific issue. The results in this paper indicate that limited short-term costs have resulted from the strengthening of trade relations between South Africa and China. As far as inflation is concerned, the paper does not find convincing empirical evidence at the aggregate level for inflation in China leading to domestic price changes. At the disaggregate level, however, there appear to be stronger sector-specific linkages between prices in China and South Africa.     

Norway's liberalisation of trade and payments in the 1950s

Abstract

While historical scholarship has focused on the domestic macroeconomic adjustment to trade liberalisation of the 1950s in terms of fiscal, monetary and incomes policies, this study deals with the liberalisation itself. From the perspective of the domestic political economy it provides an account of Norway's policies towards the European trade and payments schemes. It argues that although national ambitions were constrained by multilateral European liberalisation, a successful policy mix of exploiting EPU credits, delaying import quota liberalisation and selectively raising tariffs was pursued. It also argues that the government's sympathy towards the stillborn Nordic customs union in 1954 originated in this policy mix.     

Iceland,OEEC and the trade liberalisation of the 1950s

Abstract

While Western Europe was experiencing a trade boom and adopting a more liberal economic framework during the 1950s, Iceland was moving in the opposite direction. External trade was historically at its lowest point and its external economic policy was characterized by extreme caution towards European cooperation and integration. Iceland's commitment to a more open economy and closer economic integration with Europe was at best half-hearted as her participation in the OEEC's Trade Liberalisation Program (TLP) clearly demonstrates. This article examines Iceland's external economic relations between 1945 and 1960 with particular emphasis on the TLP. It seeks to explain why Iceland, so highly dependent on strong ties with the outside world, chose to cling to protectionism longer than most Western European countries. It is argued that the external shock caused by the war, creating an artificial economy internally and the overvaluation of the krona, made adjustment to peacetime circumstances extremely difficult. The task was made harder by a public policy prioritizing on growth and investment rather than balanced macroeconomic management. Last but not least, Iceland's commercial interests were not easily reconcilable with those of the other members of the OEEC because of her special pattern of trade.     

The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries

Cultural distance and institutional distance have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of cultural distance and institutional distance in China's trade relationship with the Belt and Road (B&R) countries. We estimate the extended gravity model using bilateral trade data at product-level during 2002–2016 between China and 99 trading partners, 38 of which are along the Belt and Road. Using Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) econometric methods, we find that firstly, cultural distance and institutional distance inhibit China's bilateral trade with the Belt and Road countries. Secondly, China's bilateral trade with the B&R countries is more sensitive to the change of cultural distance than institutional distance by comparing their beta coefficients. Thirdly, compared to Asian countries on the Belt and Road, bilateral trade flows between China and European countries show less sensitivity to changes in cultural distance, except China's imports from its trading partners. While the trade effects of institutional distance show no difference between China's trade with European countries and Asian countries. Lastly, the announcement of BRI does reduce trade-inhibiting effect of cultural distance on China's trade with the Belt and Road countries, while increase China's exports sensitivity to institutional distance. This study finally suggests relevant cultural exchange driven by the BRI eventually assisting unimpeded trade and deepening the cooperation.     

The impact of trade facilitation factors on South Africa's exports to a selection of African countries

Economic growth can be enhanced through increased trade among countries, provided the correct institutional structures are in place. A country's trade is dependent not only on its own trade facilitation reforms but also on those of the trading partners. This paper, using an augmented gravity model, examines trade facilitation factors that impact on South Africa's exports to other selected African countries. The results of the estimation reveal the following. An improvement in the customs environment within the importing country provides the largest gain in terms of increasing trade flows, followed by the regulatory environment and domestic infrastructure. Furthermore, adjacency and common language impact positively on South African exports, while distance between countries impacts negatively on it. Being part of the Southern African Development Community is also enhancing exports from South Africa, compared with being part of the East African Community.     

入世对中国农业的影响

加入WTO对中国农业是有利还是有弊?这是人们争论的焦点。本文从WTO关于农业贸易的基本规则和中国在与加拿大、美国、澳大利亚等国的双边谈判中所采取的让步和在谈判中所取得的合理立场出发 ,分析了中国在加入WTO以后将会面临的不利影响和有利因素。通过对不利影响和有利因素的比较、分析 ,本文提出了七点对策与措施。     

The impact of declining terms of trade and inflation on the export proceeds and debt burden of developing countries

This paper considers two problems related to the calculation of losses arising from changes in the terms of trade. First, the author discusses the choice of an appropriate formula for calculating the national gains or losses with respect to the trade balance as a result of changes in the terms of trade. Second, he studies the problem of determining whether the analysis can be extended to elucidate the gains or losses arising with respect to the service of the debt. These two questions are approached in the light of two earlier UNCTAD studies.     

The impact of AFTA on intra-AFTA trade

ASEAN countries have liberalised intra-ASEAN trade over the last 20 years by establishing the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). This paper aims to examine the impact of trade liberalisation under AFTA on intra-ASEAN trade. By applying a gravity model, we find positive and significant trade creation effects from the tariff elimination for a wide range of products. In addition, the analysis reveals that the elasticity of tariff reduction on imports tends to be much larger than that on exports. Trade creation effects for the new ASEAN members are relatively small compared to those for the old members. Our results show that AFTA has been successful in promoting intra-AFTA trade, while we argue that further expansion may be achieved by increasing the use of AFTA and by reducing/removing non-tariff measures (NTMs) through such ways as improving customs procedures and harmonizing/mutually recognizing product standards.     

The impact of EMU on trade flows

The Impact of EMU on Trade Flows. — In this paper we quantify the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows within the EU with the help of a gravity trade model. We consider bilateral instead of total exports, and we use panel data. Moreover, we introduce dynamics into the model, taking lagged exports as explanatory variable. The estimation of this model for the period 1962–1995 leads to significant negative coefficients for the proxy of exchange rate variability. We use these estimates to calculate the potential trade-creating effect of a monetary union, setting the exchange rate volatility equal to zero.     

Economic integration, market size and the welfare effects of trade liberalisation

Economic Integration, Market Size and the Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalisation. — This paper examines the welfare effects of regional and global integration in a model where market size matters. Regional integration leads to higher welfare in the countries of a preferential trading arrangement (PTA), but to lower welfare outside. In case the countries also decide to form a customs union (CU), both countries will experience further gains if the creation of the CU means that the average external trade barriers are raised. In turn, the outside country will in this case experience further welfare losses. If it retaliates and creates a trade war, this will lower welfare in all countries. In contrast, global integration mostly benefits both PTA countries and outside countries.     

European trade liberalisation and the stillborn Nordic customs union in the 1950s

Abstract

Historical research on the aborted Nordic customs union of the 1950s has emphasised the conflicting commercial interests of the countries involved. This study identifies the common commercial interests that from 1954 committed governments to further progress in the customs union issue. It argues that increased frustration over the ‘hardening’ of the European commercial regime made the governments opt for a customs union to develop Nordic manufacturing industries.     

How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?

We provide an estimate of China's impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries after its WTO accession on 11 December 2001. Our empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which we argue was exogenous to other countries' growth trajectories, we exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. This allows us to compare changes in economic growth in the post-accession period relative to the pre-accession period between countries that were able to benefit from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China's WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. We find that roughly one tenth of average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China's increased appetite for commodities. We use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.     

The impact of technological differences on east-west trade

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkungen von Unterschieden in der Technologie auf den Ost-West-Handel. —Aus der empirischen Analyse des internationalen Austauschs von Technologie und technologieintensiven Produkten im Ost-West-Handel ergeben sich zwei klare Ergebnisse. Erstens wird die Ansicht best?tigt, da\ Technologiestr?me im Ost-West-Handel dominieren und da\ die Str?me von technologieintensiven Produkten von den entwickelten L?ndern mit einer Marktwirtschaft zu den L?ndern mit einer Planwirtschaft flie\en. Zweitens ergibt sich jedoch ein anderes Muster der technologischen Abh?ngigkeit, wenn nur die “hohe” Technologie betrachtet wird, hier definiert als stark oder durchschnittlich F-und-E-intensive Güter: Die Rolle dieser “hohen” Technologie im Ost-West-Handel ist relativ gering. Ein wichtiger Grund dafür, da\ stark F-und-E-intensive Güter nicht in gro\em Umfang von den Ostblockl?ndern importiert werden, liegt darin, da\ diese Gruppe Konsumgüter enth?lt (Fernsehen, Hi-Fi-Ausrüstungen, elektronische Güter usw.). Harte Devisen werden aber weiterhin vorwiegend zum Kauf von Investitionsgütern zugeteilt, d. h. für den Kauf von Technologie an sich. Au\erdem verhindern mengenm?\ige Beschr?nkungen im Ost-West-Handel, da\ technologieintensive Produkte in dem Umfang gehandelt werden, wie es gem?\ der Theorie zu erwarten w?re.

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Résumé L’effet des différences technologiques sur le commerce est-ouest. ⟶euxaspects sont démontrés par l’analyse empirique des flux de la technologie et des produits basés sur la technologie en commerce est-ouest. Le premier résultat confirme l’opinion que le commerce est-ouest est dominé par les flux de technologie et que le flux de technologie incorporée s’écoule des économies de marché développées vers les économies planifiées. Le deuxième résultat, cependant, suggère une structure assez différente de la dépendance technologique si l’on considère seulement la technologie ?haute? définie ici par des produits hautement et modérément R&D-intensifs : Le r?le de la technologie ?haute? est relativement faible. Une raison importante pourquoi les produits hautement R&D-intensifs ne sont pas importés en grande échelle est qu’ils incluent des biens à consommation (télévision, hi-fi équipement, électroniques). Mais les monnaies fortes continuent à être réservées avant tout pour l’achat des biens d’investissement, c’est-à-dire pour l’achat de la technologie ellemême. De plus, les restrictions quantitatives en commerce est-ouest empêchent que les produits intensifs à technologie sont commercés en mesure comme prédite par la théorie.

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Resumen El impacto de diferencias tecnol?gicas sobre el intercambio comercial entre el Este y el Oeste. -El análisis enxpirico de las corrientes de tecnología y de bienes de base tecnológica intercambiados entre el Este y el Oeste demuestra claramente dos cosas. Primero se confirma la opinión de que en el intercambio comercial entre el Este y el Oeste predominan las corrientes de tecnología y que la dirección de la corriente de tecnologia incorporada es de los países desarrollados de economía de mercado hacia los pafses de economia centralmente planificada. El segundo resultado, empero, sugiere una estructura de dependencia tecnológica diferente, si se considera solamente la ?alta? tecnología, definida como bienes moderadamente y altamente intensivos en investigatión y desarrollo (I&D). La ?alta? tecnología cumple un papel relativamente menor en el intercambio comercial entre el Este y el Oeste. Una de las razones por las cuales bienes muy intensivos en I&D no se importan en gran escala es que incluyen bienes de consumo (aparatos de televisión, equipos de audio, artefactos electrónicos, etc.). El Este continúa con su política de asignar divisas preferentemente para compras de bienes de capital, o sea, para la compra de la tecnología misma. Además, restricciones cuantitativas sobre el comercio Este-Oeste impiden el intercambio de bienes intensivos en tecnología en la medida indicada por la teoría del comercio internacional.

     

The effect of global trade liberalization on toxic emissions in industry

The Effect of Global Trade Liberalization on Toxic Emissions in Industry. — Estimates of the output effects of the Uruguay Round and of a hypothetical agreement for free trade in manufactures are combined with estimates of the toxic intensity of industrial activities. Liberalization reduces global pollution moderately, by eliminating overproduction in protected “dirty” activities, and by reallocating “dirty” production from developing to developed countries. Parts of Asia, and the economies in transition, may become more polluted as a result of liberalization. Improvements in emission technology due to liberalization-induced income increases are estimated to be of second-order importance.     

The impact on allocation and return to labor and capital of a reduction of customs duties in the developed countries in their trade with less developed countries

Zusammenfassung Die Wirkung einer Zollsenkung in entwickelten L?ndern in ihrem Handel mit weniger entwickelten L?ndern auf die Allokation und die Ertr?ge von Arbeit und Kapital. — Die vorliegende Abhandlung geht von der Annahme aus, da\ die Textil- und Schuhindustrien in den weniger entwickelten L?ndern einen komparativen Vorteil haben, w?hrend die gleichen beiden Industrien in den entwickelten L?ndern einen komparativen Nachteil aufweisen, und da\ daher die Exporte dieser Industrien aus den weniger entwickelten L?ndern gef?rdert werden sollten. Die Auswirkungen einer Abschaffung der Z?lle auf Textilien auf die Ertr?ge von Arbeit und Kapital in diesen Industrien wird für Norwegen gesch?tzt. Die Untersuchung ergibt, da\ die Abschaffung der Z?lle die Ertr?ge von Arbeit und Kapital in den Textil- und Schuhindustrien um 26–27 vH verringern wird. Dies scheinen auch ann?hernd die Wirkungen auf die Ertr?ge von Arbeit und Kapital in den meisten anderen entwickelten L?ndern zu sein.

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Résumé L’effet qu’exerce sur le rendement du travail et du capital une baisse du tarif douanier dans les pays développés en ce qui concerne leur commerce avec des pays moins développés. — Cet article suppose que les industries textiles et des chaussures dans les pays moins développés en ont un avantage comparatif, tandis que les mêmes industries dans les pays développés ont un désavantage comparatif, et que, par conséquent, il faudrait encourager á l’exportation ces deux industries dans les pays moins développés. Ensuite, est estimé pour la Norvège l’effet qu’exercerait sur le rendement du travail et du capital une abolition des tarifs de douane sur les textiles. On arrive á la conclusion qu’une telle abolition ferait baisser de 26 á 27 pour cent le rendement du travail et du capital dans les industries textiles et des chaussures. Il para?t que le même effet se produirait dans la plupart des autres pays développés.

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Resumen El impacto de una reducción arancelaria en paises desarrollados en su comercio con paises menos desarrollados sobre la alocación y los rendimientos del trabajo y del capital. — El présente estudio parte del supuesto, que las industrias textiles y del calzado tienen ventajas comparativas en paises menos desarrollados y desventajas comparativas en paises desarrollados, y que por lo tanto deberfanse fomentar las exportaciones de estas industrias de los pafses menos desarrollados. El autor présenta una estimaci?n para Noruega sobre el efecto que tendria la abolici?n del arancel de productos textiles y del calzado sobre los rendimientos de trabajo y capital. El resultado es que dichos rendimientos se reducirian en un 26 a 27 por 100. Esto équivale mas o menos al impacto que cabria esperar en la mayoria de los demás paises desarrollados.

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Riassunto L’effetto di un abbassamento dei dazi in Paesi sviluppati nel loro commercio con Paesi meno sviluppati sull’allocazione e sui provenu di lavoro e capitale. — II présente articolo parte dall’ipotesi che le industrie tessili e calzaturiere nei Paesi poco sviluppati hanno un comparativo vantaggio, mentre queste due stesse industrie presentano un comparativo svantaggio nei Paesi sviluppati e che perció le esportazioni di queste industrie dovrebbero essere favorite dai Paesi poco sviluppati. Le ripercussioni di un’abolizione dei dazi su tessili sui proventi di lavoro e capitale in queste industrie vengono valutate per la Norvegia. L’indagine dá corne risultato che l’abolizione dei dazi ridurrá del 26–27% i proventi di lavoro e capitale nelle industrie tessili e calzaturiere. Questi sembrano anche essere approssimativamente gli effetti sui proventi di lavoro e capitale nella maggior parte degli altri Paesi sviluppati.