The flow-performance relationship around the world

We use a new dataset to study how mutual fund flows depend on past performance across 28 countries. We show that there are marked differences in the flow-performance relationship across countries, suggesting that US findings concerning its shape do not apply universally. We find that mutual fund investors sell losers more and buy winners less in more developed countries. This is because investors in more developed countries are more sophisticated and face lower costs of participating in the mutual fund industry. Higher country-level convexity is positively associated with higher levels of risk taking by fund managers.     

The relationship between aggregate managed fund flows and share market returns in Australia

This paper presents the relation between aggregate equity managed fund flows and excess share market returns in Australia and evaluates the issue of causality therein. Using a large data set of 3613 managed funds for the period January 1990 to September 2009, the paper addresses two important questions yet to be addressed within the Australian market: First, for research question one; it aims to determine whether a positive feedback process exists between aggregate equity managed fund flows and excess share market returns. Second, for research question two; it examines the relation between unexpected aggregate equity managed fund flows and excess share market returns. The empirical findings contribute to the literature by confirming, in Australia, aggregate equity managed fund flows do not Granger-cause excess share market returns; however, compelling evidence reveals that share market returns do in fact Granger-cause managed fund flows. These findings support those of Edwards and Zhang (1998), who find similar evidence for the United States over the sample period 1961–1996. In addition, aggregate equity managed fund flows are found to be positively related to excess share market returns, indicating herding behavior.     

An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between mutual fund flow and market return volatility

We study the dynamic relation between aggregate mutual fund flow and market-wide volatility. Using daily flow data and a VAR approach, we find that market volatility is negatively related to concurrent and lagged flow. A structural VAR impulse response analysis suggests that shock in flow has a negative impact on market volatility: An inflow (outflow) shock predicts a decline (an increase) in volatility. From the perspective of volatility–flow relation, we find evidence of volatility timing for recent period of 1998–2003. Finally, we document a differential impact of daily inflow versus outflow on intraday volatility. The relation between intraday volatility and inflow (outflow) becomes weaker (stronger) from morning to afternoon.     

The relationship between mutual fund fees and expenses and their effects on performance

Fees charged by mutual funds include front-end load charges, deferred sales charges that decrease over time, redemption fees that are imposed whenever shares are sold, and 12b-1 fees. Fees may be justified if they allow the fund to lower other costs or improve performance. In this paper, we find that, on average, 12b-1 fees, deferred sales charges, and redemption fees increase expenses whereas funds with front-end loads generally have lower expenses. We also find that funds with 12b-1 fees and redemption fees, on average, earn higher risk adjusted returns but funds with front-end load charges earn lower risk adjusted returns.     

Diversification in the hedge fund industry

We provide evidence of a significant relation between diversification and performance in the hedge fund industry. Measuring diversification across four distinct dimensions, we find a significant positive relation between hedge fund performance and diversification across sectors and asset classes. We show that on a risk adjusted basis, hedge funds that diversify across sectors and asset classes outperform other funds by an average of 1.1% per year. However, diversification across styles and geographies exhibits a significant negative association with hedge fund returns. Funds that diversify across styles and geographies underperform other funds by an average of 1% per year. For fund of hedge funds, we find a significant positive relation between performance and diversification across sectors. However, diversifying across asset classes and geographies is found to exhibit a negative relation with fund performance. Finally, we find that the motive to engage in diversification is consistent with managerial incentive structure in the hedge fund industry.     

Convenience in the mutual fund industry

I examine the role of convenience in the mutual fund industry. I find that investors pay more for relatively convenient funds, and that the flows to convenient funds are less responsive to performance. These findings suggest that investors do not evaluate mutual funds independently, but rather that investors select a primary fund, likely based on beliefs about managerial ability, and then select funds which are relatively convenient to this primary fund.     

Mutual fund performance and fund prospectus clarity

We conduct a cross-sectional examination of the writing clarity (readability) of mutual fund prospectuses from 20 major US mutual fund families. We focus on the language in the objective/strategy and principal risks sections, using Flesch scores and word counts to measure writing clarity. There is considerable variation in readability among funds and fund families. Flesch readability scores do not vary across fund objective, but within funds, risk discussions are more clear than are discussions of objective/strategy. Generally, the readability of a fund's risk discussion is lower for load funds than no-load funds, and readability increases with fund size and beta and decreases with raw and risk-adjusted three-year returns.     

Mutual fund tournaments and fund Active Share

We study the impact of the tournament-like competition in the mutual fund industry by examining the Active Share choices of funds. Funds with relatively poor performance by the end of the third quarter in a calendar year tend to increase their Active Share during the last quarter. The increase in the trailing funds’ Active Share is accompanied by an increase in the funds’ downside risk exposure. The evidence suggests that the strategic shifts in Active Share we document are not information/skill motivated.     

Mutual fund risk and market share-adjusted fund flows

Several papers use a fractional specification (net inflow/ assets under management) to infer a convex relation between flow and past performance. However, heterogeneous linear response functions combined with the pooled analysis commonly used in these studies can yield false convexity estimates. We show that such heterogeneity obtains in practice. Along these same lines, the paper also finds that several previously unexamined implications of a convex flow-performance relation fail to hold. Moreover, convexity with fractional flows (which we confirm) largely disappears in a conditional analysis that controls for heterogeneity. Market shares offer an alternative specification for flow that is more resilient to heterogeneity. Using this alternative specification, we again find no evidence of convexity in the flow-performance relation. We conclude that the widely held belief that the flow response function is convex is due solely to misspecification of the empirical model. The flow-return relation is linear.     

募资

金沙江完成首只基金招募,NEA募集25亿美元,华禾基金完成第一期募集,硅谷50家风投募集112亿美元.[编者按]     

Management sub-advising in the mutual fund industry

This is a study of how contractual mechanisms can mitigate agency conflicts in sub-advised mutual funds. Sub-advising contracts allow fund families to expand their product offerings to include new investment styles and thereby gain market share. We show that costly contractual arrangements, such as co-branding, multi-advising, and performance-based compensation, can mitigate agency conflicts in outsourcing and protect investors from potential underperformance. Fund families will find it cost-effective to implement such incentive mechanisms only when investors are sophisticated in assessing manager skill. The findings help to explain why a large percentage of fund families outsource their funds to advisory firms.     

Predicting hedge fund performance when fund returns are skewed

We show that fund-specific return skewness is associated with managerial skill and future hedge fund performance. Specifically, skewness in fund returns reflects managerial skill in avoiding large drawdowns. Using a new measure of investment skill that accounts for this managerial ability, we demonstrate that traditional performance measures underestimate (overestimate) managerial performance when returns exhibit positive (negative) fund-specific skewness. Our new measure is particularly valuable during periods of economic crisis, when the annual risk-adjusted outperformance is 5.5%.     

平淡无奇的2010年基金市场

新年伊始,回顾2010年基金市场,用“平淡无奇”四个字来评价可能比较恰当：既没有2006～2007年的波澜壮阔,也没有2008年的惨淡无奈,当然亦没有2009年的突然惊喜。截至2010年12月31日,上证指数“忙活”了一年,不但没有增长,反而从2009年底的3277．14点,下降到2808．08点,下跌幅度达14．31％。     

Purchase and redemption decisions of mutual fund investors and the role of fund families

This paper investigates the purchases and redemptions of a large cross-sectional sample of German equity funds. We find that investors not only punish bad performance by selling their shares, but also have a tendency to sell winners. Investors in large fund families show higher sales and redemption rates. Furthermore, family size also affects the flow-performance relationship: investors in large families punish bad performance more. Last, we find that inner family rankings play an important part for redemptions, with investors strongly redeeming their shares from intra-family losers. This result provides a potential reconciliation to the apparent contradiction between the low average holding period of mutual fund investors and the lack of investor discipline.     

对中国基金市场和商业银行代销开放式基金工作的思考

20 0 2年 ,是我国基金业迅速发展的一年 ,也可以说是大跨跃的一年。封闭式基金的增加 ,开放式基金集中推出 ,有效地促进了中国基金市场的发展。特别是开放式基金的成功发行和商业银行的成功代销为我国开放式基金发展探索了有效途径。实践证明 ,随着我国资本市场的迅速发展 ,我国基金业正在与国际接轨 ,并将迎来更加美好的明天。本文仅就有关我国基金市场与商业银行代销开放式基金问题谈点看法。一、怎样看待我国基金市场的变迁从 2 0 0 2年下半年以来 ,基金扩容步伐骤然加快 ,到 1 0月末 ,全国共发行开放式基金 1 4只 ,募集资金 448亿元 ,占…     

Mutual fund characteristics, managerial attributes, and fund performance

This study provides a comprehensive examination of recent mutual fund performance by analyzing a large set of both mutual funds and fund attributes in an effort to link performance to fund-specific characteristics. The results indicate that the hypothesized relationships between performance and the explanatory variables are generally upheld. After taking into consideration general market conditions and fund investment objective, the characteristic variables that relate to fund popularity, growth, cost, and management also explain performance. Finally, after controlling for survivorship and benchmark error as well as fund-specific factors, the results refute the performance persistence phenomenon.     

Hedge fund leverage

We investigate the leverage of hedge funds in the time series and cross-section. Hedge fund leverage is counter-cyclical to the leverage of listed financial intermediaries and decreases prior to the start of the financial crisis in mid-2007. Hedge fund leverage is lowest in early 2009 when the market leverage of investment banks is highest. Changes in hedge fund leverage tend to be more predictable by economy-wide factors than by fund-specific characteristics. In particular, decreases in funding costs and increases in market values both forecast increases in hedge fund leverage. Decreases in fund return volatilities predict future increases in leverage.     

Coskewness timing ability in the mutual fund industry

The ability of mutual fund managers to time coskewness successfully can help them manage their portfolio’s exposure to potential losses and improve their fund’s performance. This study assesses whether mutual fund managers are able to manage the market exposure of their investment portfolios given a change in coskewness. We demonstrate that fund managers investing in Small Blend and Small Growth stocks possess the ability to time coskewness. On average, the fund managers of these two investment objectives increase the market exposures of their portfolios about 2.749 % and 1.340 %, respectively, based on their anticipations on future coskewness. Superiority is driven from the fact that the fund managers in small capitalization stocks are successfully able to manage the tail risk of their funds’ portfolios. The fund-by-fund results confirm that the number of individual funds succeeding in timing market skewness of the Small Blend and Small Growth investment objectives is larger than the remaining types. The main findings are robust when controlling for other types of timing ability, the periods of financial turbulence, and the construction of coskewness.     

Mutual fund insurance

During the 1970's, mutual fund insurance was sold in the U.S. by the Harleysville and Prudential Insurance Companies. This paper examines the valuation and demand for this insurance. It illustrates that because of its design, for many plausible combinations of model parameters, a competitive premium need not exist for the Harleysville contract. A competitive premium will always exist for the Prudential policy, however the value is directly related to the age of the purchaser. Harleysville charged the same premium to all funds and therefore was subject to adverse selection. Evidence of this effect is provided by illustrating that the demand for the insurance was directly related to its competitive market value.     

The alpha and omega of fund of hedge fund added value

In spite of a somewhat disappointing performance throughout the crisis, investors are showing interest in hedge funds. Still, funds of hedge funds keep on experiencing outflows. Can this phenomenon be explained by the failure of fund of hedge fund managers to deliver on their promise to add value through active management, or is it symptomatic of a move toward greater disintermediation in the hedge fund industry? We introduce a return-based attribution model allowing for a full decomposition of fund of hedge fund performance. The results of our empirical study suggest that funds of hedge funds are funds of funds like others. Strategic allocation turns out to be a crucial step in the investment process, in that it not only adds value over the long-term, but most importantly, it brings resilience precisely when investors need it the most. Fund picking, on the other hand, turns out to be a double-edged sword.