Impacts of Market-based Environmental Regulation on Green Total Factor Energy Efficiency in China

This study employed a difference-in-differences design to assess the effect of market-based environmental regulation on green total factor energy efficiency (GTFEE) in a quasi-natural experiment that investigated China's carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). The empirical results show that ETS had a positive effect on GTFEE. A series of robustness tests revealed that the results were robust. Potential mechanisms through which ETS can improve GTFEE include the promotion of technological innovation and the upgrading of industrial structure. The positive effects varied in different cities and different regions – the result was pronounced in eastern China and developed cities, but it was insignificant in central and western areas and developing cities. This study confirms the satisfactory performance of China's ETS in improving GTFEE, and this is relevant for other emerging countries.     

区域异质性视角下的碳排放、经济增长与产业结构——基于PVAR模型的实证研究

选取1995—2019年中国省域面板数据,构建PVAR模型,探究东中西三大区域碳排放、经济增长与产业结构的互动影响。研究结果表明：从全国层面来看,经济增长带动产业结构高级化发展,并与碳排放之间存在长期动态耦合关系,且需长期看待产业结构带来的碳减排作用;从区域异质性来看,东中部地区基本实现变量间协调发展,西部地区碳排放对经济增长更依赖,但三者间并没有形成良好的互动机制。最后依据研究结果,对各区域低碳协调发展提出政策建议。     

Pollution abatement efforts: a regional analysis of the Chinese industrial sector

Although China has had rapid economic growth, it has borne a more significant economic burden or loss because of environmental pollution. However, the country has addressed this problem with various pollution abatement efforts. Some prior studies analysed the relationship between such efforts and pollution emissions, but did not show how these efforts affect pollution reduction. This study investigates the effects of pollution abatement efforts on industrial SO_X, NO_X and CO₂ emissions in the context of pollution reduction in China by panel data for 29 provinces from 1995 to 2010. The empirical results are as follows. First, emissions have increased rapidly in the 2000s. Second, rapid income growth has led to a greater increase in emissions. Third, pollution abatement would assist improvements in environmental quality. Further, this study reveals that abatement efforts affect emissions through the adoption of pollution removal measures.     

政府政绩追求与环境污染——基于空间面板的实证研究

随着环境污染的恶化,地方政府对于环境治理的激励逐渐受到各界的关注。利用中国30个省市2004—2013年间的二氧化硫排放强度为样本,以空间计量模型实证研究了政府政绩追求与环境污染之间的关系。研究结果表明：中国各省市二氧化硫排放强度在空间分布上具有显著的空间溢出效应,且这种空间溢出效应逐年增加;以政府财政收入、经济增长率、就业率为政府政绩考核的指标与环境污染之间存在着显著的正向关系。研究不仅为政府治理环境污染问题提供了有益的经验证据,也为中国地方政府制定更为完善的政绩考核标准提供了借鉴。     

雾霾关注度区域性差异影响因素研究

随着我国居民生产生活水平的提升,居民对生活环境提出了更高的质量要求。雾霾污染问题自爆发以来,一直受到社会的广泛关注。但居民对雾霾问题的关注度打破了原有以地区经济发展水平所划分的区域界线,呈现区域性差异。拟利用百度指数和阿里指数,运用多元回归模型,对全国31个省市雾霾关注度差异进行研究。研究发现,雾霾关注度与消费者雾霾防护产品购买决策具有明显的正相关关系;雾霾关注度与受教育程度、环境空气质量和人均可支配收入关系显著。提出建议：鼓励公众参与,构建协同治理环境;加大对雾霾知识的宣传力度;提升雾霾防护产品的技术水平。     

Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis

This paper investigates the driving forces, emission trends and reduction potential of China's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions based on a provincial panel data set covering the years 1995 to 2009. A series of static and dynamic panel data models are estimated, and then an optimal forecasting model selected by out-of-sample criteria is used to forecast the emission trend and reduction potential up to 2020. The estimation results show that economic development, technology progress and industry structure are the most important factors affecting China's CO₂ emissions, while the impacts of energy consumption structure, trade openness and urbanization level are negligible. The inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO₂ emissions and economic development level is not strongly supported by the estimation results. The impact of capital adjustment speed is significant. Scenario simulations further show that per capita and aggregate CO₂ emissions of China will increase continuously up to 2020 under any of the three scenarios developed in this study, but the reduction potential is large.     

绿色信贷对绿色技术创新效率的影响

基于2010—2019年中国省级面板数据,运用DEA-BCC模型测算绿色技术创新效率,进而构建面板回归模型实证研究绿色信贷对绿色技术创新效率的影响作用。整体回归结果表明,绿色信贷对绿色技术创新效率具有显著的正向促进作用;分区域回归结果表明,绿色信贷对东部地区和中西部地区绿色技术创新效率均具有正向促进作用,但对东部和中西部地区的影响存在显著的地区差异。     

Are China's trade interests overestimated? Evidence from firms’ importing behavior and pollution emissions

Importing is an important driving force for a country's economic growth. While importing promotes the expansion of economic scale, does it also lead the increase of pollution emissions in production? In this paper, we establish a micro theoretical model to analyze the impacts of importing on firms’ environmental performance, and then use the data of China's manufacturing firms for empirical tests. We show that the importing of intermediate goods or capital goods will lead to the increase of firms’ production scale, and thereby increasing their total emissions, which suggests that China's environment will be deteriorated by importing. On the other hand, importing also has some positive environmental effects that firms will increase their abatement investment after importing intermediate goods or capital goods, thus firms’ emission intensity can be effectively reduced. Altogether, this paper provides important evidence on the impacts of importing on pollution emissions at product-level. We suggest that when analyzing China's interests in trade, the environmental effects of trade should be taken into consideration, otherwise China's gains from trade will be overestimated. This paper also has important implications that while developing the economy through international trade, the government should strengthen environmental protection and advocate green trade.     

Pollution abatement costs and technical changes under different environmental regulations

Balancing economic growth and environmental protection is a global issue that requires both scientific and economic consideration. In this study, we employed a joint production model that accounted for both favorable and unfavorable outputs to calculate the changes in pollution abatement costs (PACs) and the decomposition of SO₂ emissions in China's industrial sector from 2001– to 2015. Command-and-control and tradable permit environmental regulation scenarios were specified to assess PACs and changes in these costs associated with changes in technology, input, and unfavorable output production. Our empirical results show that the PACs increased by 0.06% and 0.34% under command-and-control and tradable permit scenarios, respectively. Further analyses of these changes indicated that regulated technology grew faster than unregulated under both scenarios; overall, command-and-control regulations were more conducive to green technological innovations. Both types of environmental regulation reduced industrial SO₂ emissions, and the difference between them was minimal. Under the two scenarios, the pollution emissions intensity decreased. Moreover, because the tradable permit policy improved favorable output production via the optimal allocation of resources, the intensity of pollution emissions was significantly lower. As there were advantages to both regulatory options, their balanced application is vital in the short-run. In the long-term, measures should be taken to ensure the full trading of SO₂ emission rights. The focus of environmental policies should gradually shift to an emissions trading system to achieve the balanced development of China's environment and economy.     

新疆社会经济发展的环境效应分析

本文首先运用直线无量纲化法构造1985年-2008年新疆环境负荷综合指数,利用随机回归影响模型（STIRPAT）分析了16岁-64岁人口比重、人均GDP、工业能耗强度对新疆环境负荷的影响,结果表明三种因素对新疆环境负荷都有显著的正向作用;其次,基于VEC模型的广义脉冲响应函数分析和方差：分解分析表明,三种因素对新疆环境负荷的正向作用都具有持续性特征,并且长期来讲人均GDP的正向影响效应最大。研究认为,在目前新疆社会经济发展现状下,政府应当充分发挥其主导作用,通过有效的市场推动方式和完善的公众参与机制,降低环境负荷水平,实现新疆社会经济的可持续发展。     

中国城市数字经济发展对环境污染的影响及机理研究

数字经济为政府治理、企业生产和居民生活等领域带来了深刻变革，数字经济发展是否抑制了环境污染是亟需解答的问题。文章基于中国285个城市2011-2018年的面板数据，运用固定效应模型、空间杜宾模型、中介效应模型等方法，多维度实证检验了数字经济发展对城市环境污染的影响及其中介机制。研究发现，数字经济发展显著降低了城市各类环境污染物的排放，运用工具变量估计、引入外生政策冲击、替换解释变量等方法进行稳健性检验后，该结论仍然成立。数字经济发展对不同污染物的降低作用有所差异，对工业二氧化硫排放量的降低效应最明显，工业废水和工业烟尘排放量次之，对PM_2.5浓度的降低效应最小。中介效应分析表明，绿色创新和产业结构优化是数字经济降低城市环境污染物排放的重要机制。空间溢出效应分析表明，数字经济发展对周边城市各类环境污染物存在负向空间溢出效应。空间异质性分析表明，东部地区数字经济发展的污染减排效应相比中、西部地区更大，且数字经济发展仅在东、中部地区具有显著的空间溢出效应。文章的内容丰富了有关环境污染影响因素的研究，也是对有关数字经济研究的有效补充，研究结论为数字经济助力环境污染治理提供了可靠的实证依据，同时为发展数字经济、充分发挥数字经济的污染减排提供了政策参考。     

Greening of Chinese industrial sector: Stakeholders' responsiveness to non-governmental environmental monitoring

By merging all the industrial enterprises above designated size (over 300 thousand in 2013) at both the city level and the industry level, we examine the green transformation process of China's industrial sector for nearly 300 prefecture-level cities between 2004 and 2013. Since about 40% of these cities are under non-governmental environmental monitoring by means of releasing the pollution information transparency index (PITI) annually, we then empirically evaluate the green responses of Chinese industrial sector to the non-governmental environmental monitoring from a randomized natural field experiment by employing a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The results indicate that the PITI release by a third party could significantly contribute to the green transformation of local industrial sector, and the effects are stronger in cities with more stringent environmental regulation and higher levels of economic development and marketization. Moreover, production factors appear to be reallocated from the polluting sectors to the non-polluting sectors to green the industrial sector. Specifically, more and more capitals and labors are invested in the non-polluting sectors in the cities with the PITI disclosure. Existing firms may exit the market, and forthcoming polluting firms are nipped in the bud.     

我国FDI流入的经济效率分析——基于地级市动态面板数据模型

文章利用2003-2012年期间我国246个地级市数据,首先借助DEA方法测量出不同地市的Malmquist指数,然后通过基于工具变量的固定效应面板回归模型,实证研究了外商直接投资对地区经济效率的影响。结果表明,自2003年以来,全国经济效率逐渐上升,约累计提高了37.1%,但是东部、中部和西部三大区域的经济效率及其增速各不相同。控制其他影响因素后,发现FDI能够有效促进所在地的经济效率,特别是在经济相对发达的东部和经济效率较高的地市。地区经济越发达、经济效率越高,则FDI提升当地经济效率的作用越显著。     

Driving factors of CO2 emission inequality in China: The role of government expenditure

China has reached a consensus regarding the total control of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions; however, regional emission inequalities still exist. The reduction of carbon emissions is a public good and indicates a strong positive externality, which is difficult to solve within the market. Such reductions are highly dependent on governmental contributions. Therefore, using the Theil index and the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach, this paper integrates government expenditure into an analysis framework, investigating the driving factors of emission inequality and the status and changes of China's CO₂ emission inequality from 2007 to 2015, attributing emission inequality to disparities in governmental expenditures, energy consumption, and other socioeconomic factors. The empirical results show that imbalances in economic development, population distribution, and energy structure were prerequisites for a regional emission inequality, while disparities in government expenditure also played an important role. Among these factors, disparities in the expenditure structure were the main cause for emission inequality. The findings of this paper provide guidelines for the government to set carbon emission reduction quota and implement reasonable differentiated emission reduction policies.     

经济增长与雾霾污染治理:空间环境库兹涅茨曲线检验

文章在对国内外与经济增长、环境污染及环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）相关的文献进行述评的基础上，构建了中国经济增长与雾霾污染治理的理论分析框架，利用ArcGIS软件将NASA提供的2003-2016年全球遥感地图年均PM_2.5浓度栅格数据值解析为中国281个地级及以上城市具体的数值，采用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）方法与动态空间杜宾面板数据模型（SDDPDM）对中国经济增长与雾霾污染之间是否存在EKC曲线以及引致雾霾污染空间溢出的因素进行了经验识别。结果发现，中国（整体）、东部地区及中西部地区均存在雾霾污染EKC曲线（中西部地区没有通过显著性检验）且处于雾霾污染随着经济增长而加剧的EKC曲线第一阶段（拐点为第二阶段）。这与区域经济发展水平，特别是与区域经济发展水平离雾霾污染EKC曲线拐点的距离有关。区域经济发展水平离雾霾污染EKC曲线拐点越近，该区域雾霾污染EKC曲线越显著；反之，则越不显著。中国（整体）、东部地区及中西部地区经济发展水平离各自雾霾污染EKC曲线拐点的距离分别为中等、较近及较远，故，在上述三种情况下，雾霾污染EKC曲线的显著性会出现差异。交通运输对中国雾霾污染治理起到了消极作用；科技水平、产业结构合理化及教育水平对雾霾污染治理均能起到积极的促进作用。中西部地区FDI对中国雾霾污染治理所起的作用是积极的，而东部地区FDI则相反。     

房地产投资会阻碍区域经济增长吗？——基于中国2000—2017年的经验证据

近年来中国经济出现增长速度放缓、产业结构失衡等一系列问题,资源错配是产生这些问题的原因之一.从房地产投资出发,分析其通过房地产业、非房地产业、消费、经济风险影响经济增长的作用机制,并利用中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)2000—2017年的面板数据加以实证考察.研究发现:在观测期内,房地产投资对经济增长的促进作用低于非房地产投资;全国样本的实证结果显示房地产投资与经济增长呈现倒"U"形关系,说明房地产投资的增加最终会阻碍经济增长;分区域样本的实证结果表明,东北地区和中部地区与全国样本的趋势一致,呈现倒"U"形关系.其中,东北地区只有辽宁省于2014年跨过拐点,房地产投资对东北地区经济增长主要起到促进作用;中部地区6省分别从2008—2011年开始陆续跨过拐点,并持续至样本期末,说明房地产投资对中部地区经济增长造成的负面影响已经持续了10年左右.东部和西部地区的房地产投资与区域经济增长呈现显著的正向线性关系.     

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of industrial pollution in China

Due to the lack of effective institutional constraints, the negative externality from industrial production will lead to environmental pollution and spatial spillover on neighboring units. Because the self-purification capacity of the environmental system is limited, a strong time effect is witnessed. Time lag and spatial spillover need to be considered to mitigate the effect of industrial pollution. Using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), this paper decomposes the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of industrial pollution in China. Results show a significant spatio-temporality in the evolution of the provincial-level industrial pollution since 2007. As the major participants, state-owned enterprises play a leading role in the state economy and greatly affect pollutant emissions. In the central and eastern regions, an increasing proportion of state-owned output values is related to the decrease of industrial pollution emissions, whereas western regions witness an opposite trend. Emissions charge plays a positive role in curbing the emission from industrial enterprises in the central and western regions. A better understanding of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of industrial pollution is the prerequisite in the alleviation of industrial pollutions to achieve a sustainable economic growth.     

Sustaining Economic Growth in China under Energy and Climate Security Constraints

I. Introduction China has impressed the world with a nearly constant two digit rate of economic growthover the past quarter of a century. For the first 20 years in the twenty-first century, the national target is to quadruple the size of the economy. However, the growth target is under increasing security concerns from the perspective of energy supply and climate change. As both energy supply and global warming are of global and strategic significance with clear implications for national econ…     

产业结构升级、能源效率与绿色发展的影响研究

基于SBM-GML指数模型测算中国30个省级地区绿色全要素生产率,衡量中国经济绿色发展状况,采用2005—2020年30个省级地区数据所构成的动态面板SYS-GMM模型,并结合中介效应模型,研究产业结构升级、能源效率对绿色发展的影响及作用机制。研究发现：产业结构升级对绿色发展的影响呈“U”型曲线关系,即随着产业结构升级水平的提高,绿色发展会表现出下降-上升的变化趋势；能源效率提升对绿色发展具有正向的促进作用；能源效率在产业结构升级对绿色发展的影响过程中具有显著的中介效应。据此建议：以供给侧结构性改革推动资源禀赋的产业结构升级,因地制宜实施产业节能减排政策；发展新型清洁能源,优化能源消费结构,促进经济绿色发展。     

地区腐败对空气质量影响的空间效应研究

选取2000—2018年中国30个省份作为样本,运用空间自相关检验验证空气质量的空间相关性,并构建固定效应空间杜宾模型探究地区腐败对空气质量影响的空间效应。研究结果表明：地区腐败会加剧本地区空气污染,会降低邻接地区的PM2.5浓度;工业污染排放量、对外开放程度、能源消费量增加均会加剧本地区和邻近地区空气质量恶化;经济发展效率会降低本地区空气污染程度,高质量的经济发展会促进空气质量好转