Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].     

Monopoly regulation without the Spence–Mirrlees assumption

The paper extends the Baron and Myerson [Baron, D., Myerson, R.B., 1982. Regulating a monopolist with unknown costs. Econometrica 50, 911–930] model of monopoly regulation to bidimensional adverse selection: both the marginal cost and the fixed cost of the monopoly are unknown to the regulator. Like in Araujo and Moreira [Araujo, A., Moreira, H., 2000. Adverse section problems without the Spence–Mirrlees condition. Fundação Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Ensaios Economicos 389], the paper provides an explicit solution of a screening model without the Spence–Mirrlees assumption.     

A two-stage realized volatility approach to estimation of diffusion processes with discrete data

This paper motivates and introduces a two-stage method of estimating diffusion processes based on discretely sampled observations. In the first stage we make use of the feasible central limit theory for realized volatility, as developed in [Jacod, J., 1994. Limit of random measures associated with the increments of a Brownian semiartingal. Working paper, Laboratoire de Probabilities, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris] and [Barndorff-Nielsen, O., Shephard, N., 2002. Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 64, 253–280], to provide a regression model for estimating the parameters in the diffusion function. In the second stage, the in-fill likelihood function is derived by means of the Girsanov theorem and then used to estimate the parameters in the drift function. Consistency and asymptotic distribution theory for these estimates are established in various contexts. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is compared with that of the approximate maximum likelihood method of [Aït-Sahalia, Y., 2002. Maximum likelihood estimation of discretely sampled diffusion: A closed-form approximation approach. Econometrica. 70, 223–262].     

A dynamic CAPM with supply effect: Theory and empirical results

Breeden [Breeden, D. T. (1979). An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities. Journal of Financial Economics 7, 265–196] and Grinols [Grinols, E. L. (1984). Production and risk leveling in the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The Journal of Finance 39, 5, 1571–1595] and Cox et al. [Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., Jr., & Ross, S. A. (1985). An intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices. Econometrica 53, 363–384] have described the importance of supply side for the capital asset pricing. Black [Black, S. W. (1976). Rational response to shocks in a dynamic model of capital asset pricing. American Economic Review 66, 767–779] derives a dynamic, multiperiod CAPM, integrating endogenous demand and supply. However, Black's theoretically elegant model has never been empirically tested for its implications in dynamic asset pricing. We first theoretically extend Black's CAPM. Then we use price, dividend per share and earnings per share to test the existence of supply effect with U.S. equity data. We find the supply effect is important in U.S. domestic stock markets. This finding holds as we break the companies listed in the S&P 500 into ten portfolios by different level of payout ratio. It also holds consistently if we use individual stock data.     

Autoregresive conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis

This paper proposes a GARCH-type model allowing for time-varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. The model is estimated assuming a Gram–Charlier (GC) series expansion of the normal density function for the error term, which is easier to estimate than the non-central t distribution proposed by [Harvey, C. R. & Siddique, A. (1999). Autorregresive Conditional Skewness. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 34, 465–487). Moreover, this approach accounts for time-varying skewness and kurtosis while the approach by Harvey and Siddique [Harvey, C. R. & Siddique, A. (1999). Autorregresive Conditional Skewness. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 34, 465–487] only accounts for non-normal skewness. We apply this method to daily returns of a variety of stock indices and exchange rates. Our results indicate a significant presence of conditional skewness and kurtosis. It is also found that specifications allowing for time-varying skewness and kurtosis outperform specifications with constant third and fourth moments.     

Unbounded exchange economies with satiation: How far can we go?

We unify and generalize the existence results in Werner [Werner, J., 1987. Arbitrage and the existence of competitive equilibrium. Econometrica 55 (6), 1403–1418], Dana et al. [Dana, R.-A., Le Van, C., Magnien, F., 1999. On the different notions of arbitrage and existence of equilibrium. Journal of Economic Theory 87 (1), 169–193], Allouch et al. [Allouch, N., Le Van, C., Page Jr., F.H., 2006. Arbitrage and equilibrium in unbounded exchange economies with satiation. Journal of Mathematical Economics 42 (6), 661–674], Allouch and Le Van [Allouch, N., Le Van, C., 2008. Erratum to “Walras and dividends equilibrium with possibly satiated consumers”. Journal of Mathematical Economics 45 (3–4), 320–328]. We also show that, in terms of weakening the set of assumptions, we cannot go too far.     

A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation

Forecasts of key interest rates set by central banks are of paramount concern for investors and policy makers. Recently it has been shown that forecasts of the federal funds rate target, the most anticipated indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank's monetary policy stance, can be improved considerably when its evolution is modeled as a marked point process (MPP). This is due to the fact that target changes occur in discrete time with discrete increments, have an autoregressive nature and are usually in the same direction. We propose a model which is able to account for these dynamic features of the data. In particular, we combine Hamilton and Jordà's [2002. A model for the federal funds rate target. Journal of Political Economy 110(5), 1135–1167] autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) and Russell and Engle's [2005. A discrete-state continuous-time model of financial transactions prices and times: the autoregressive conditional multinomial-autoregressive conditional duration model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 23(2), 166 – 180] autoregressive conditional multinomial (ACM) model. The paper also puts forth a methodology to evaluate probability function forecasts of MPP models. By improving goodness of fit and point forecasts of the target, the ACH–ACM qualifies as a sensible modeling framework. Furthermore, our results show that MPP models deliver useful probability function forecasts at short and medium term horizons.     

Learning about monetary policy rules when the cost-channel matters

We study how monetary policy may affect determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibrium when the cost channel of monetary policy matters. Focusing on instrumental Taylor-type rules and optimal target rules, we show that standard policies can induce indeterminacy and expectational instability when the cost channel is present. A naïve application of the traditional Taylor principle could be misleading, and expectations-based reaction function under discretion does not always induce determinate and E-stable equilibrium. This result contrasts with the findings of Bullard and Mitra [2002. Learning about monetary policy rules. Journal of Monetary Economics 49, 1105–1129] and Evans and Honkapohja [2003. Expectations and stability problem for optimal monetary policies. Review of Economic Studies 70, 807–824] for the standard new Keynesian model. The ability of the central bank to commit to an optimal policy is an antidote to these problems.     

Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using the Krusell–Smith algorithm

This paper studies the properties of the solution to the heterogeneous agents model in Den Haan et al. [2009. Computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents: incomplete markets and aggregate uncertainty. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, this issue]. To solve for the individual policy rules, we use an Euler-equation method iterating on a grid of pre-specified points. To compute the aggregate law of motion, we use the stochastic-simulation approach of Krusell and Smith [1998. Income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy. Journal of Political Economy 106, 868–896]. We also compare the stochastic- and non-stochastic-simulation versions of the Krusell–Smith algorithm, and we find that the two versions are similar in terms of their speed and accuracy.     

Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability

This paper considers a class of migration dynamics with forward-looking agents in a multi-country solvable variant of the core–periphery model of Krugman [Krugman, P., 1991. Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99, 483–499]. We find that, under a symmetric externality assumption, our static model admits a potential function, which allows us to identify a stationary state that is uniquely absorbing and globally accessible under the perfect foresight dynamics whenever the degree of friction in relocation decisions is sufficiently small. In particular, when trade barriers are low enough, full agglomeration in the country with the highest barrier is the unique stable state for small frictions. New aspects in trade and tax policy that arise due to forward-looking behavior are discussed.     

Asset pricing with loss aversion

The use of standard preferences for asset pricing has not been very successful in matching asset price characteristics, such as the risk-free interest rate, equity premium and the Sharpe ratio, to time series data. Behavioral finance has recently proposed more realistic preferences such as those with loss aversion. Research is starting to explore the implications of behaviorally founded preferences for asset price characteristics. Encouraged by some studies of Benartzi and Thaler [1995. Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1), 73–92] and Barberis et al. [2001. Prospect theory and asset prices. Quarterly Journal of Economics CXVI (1), 1–53] we study asset pricing with loss aversion in a production economy. Here, we employ a stochastic growth model and use a stochastic version of a dynamic programming method with an adaptive grid scheme to compute the above mentioned asset price characteristics of a model with loss aversion in preferences. As our results show using loss aversion we get considerably better results than one usually obtains from pure consumption-based asset pricing models including the habit formation variant.     

Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors

Using the measure of risk aversion suggested by Kihlstrom and Mirman [Kihlstrom, R., Mirman, L., 1974. Risk aversion with many commodities. Journal of Economic Theory 8, 361–388; Kihlstrom, R., Mirman, L., 1981. Constant, increasing and decreasing risk aversion with many commodities. Review of Economic Studies 48, 271–280], we propose a dynamic consumption-savings–portfolio choice model in which the consumer-investor maximizes the expected value of a non-additively separable utility function of current and future consumption. Preferences for consumption streams are CES and the elasticity of substitution can be chosen independently of the risk aversion measure. The additively separable case is a special case. Because choices are not dynamically consistent, we follow the “consistent planning” approach of Strotz [Strotz, R., 1956. Myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization. Review of Economic Studies 23, 165–180] and also interpret our analysis from the game theoretic perspective taken by Peleg and Yaari [Peleg, B., Yaari, M., 1973. On the existence of a consistent course of action when tastes are changing. Review of Economic Studies 40, 391–401]. The equilibrium of the Lucas asset pricing model with i.i.d. consumption growth is obtained and the equity premium is shown to depend on the elasticity of substitution as well as the risk aversion measure. The nature of the dependence is examined. Our results are contrasted with those of the non-expected utility recursive approach of Epstein–Zin and Weil.     

Effects of simplicity and discipline on operational flexibility: An empirical reexamination of the rigid flexibility model

This study empirically tests the rigid flexibility model proposed by Collins and Schmenner [Collins, R.S., Schmenner, R.W., 1993. Achieving rigid flexibility: factory focus for the 1990s. European Management Journal 11 (4), 443–447]. It investigates relationships between flexibility performance and adoption of simplicity and discipline programs in manufacturing. The research replicates the study by Collins et al. [Collins, R.S., Cordon, C., Julien, D., 1998. An empirical test of the rigid flexibility model. Journal of Operations Management 16 (2–3), 133–146] with some modifications, including the use of a broader international database, the assessment of both technology and organizational programs, and the testing of the moderating role of dedicated line layout on the relationships between simplicity, discipline and flexibility. Analysis of data from 285 manufacturers of fabricated metal products, machinery, and equipment from 14 countries indicates that simplicity and discipline related positively to performance in product customization, volume flexibility, mix flexibility, and time to market, and that some of these relationships were more positive in high volume processes than in low volume processes. The results provide empirical validation to the rigid flexibility model in an international manufacturing context.     

The coordinate-wise core for multiple-type housing markets is second-best incentive compatible

We consider the generalization of Shapley and Scarf’s (1974) [Shapley, L., Scarf’s, H., 1974. On cores and indivisibility. Journal of Mathematical Economics 1, 23–37.] model of trading indivisible objects (houses) to so-called multiple-type housing markets. We show that the prominent solution for these markets, the coordinate-wise core rule, is second-best incentive compatible.     

Tiebout's tale in spatial economies: Entrepreneurship, self-selection, and efficiency

This paper establishes the existence and efficiency of equilibrium in a local public goods economy with spatial structures by formalizing Hamilton's [Hamilton, B.W., 1975. Zoning and property taxation in a system of local governments Urban Studies 12, 205–211] elaboration of Tiebout's [Tiebout, C., 1956. A pure theory of local public expenditures. Journal of Political Economy 64, 416–424] tale. We use a well-known equilibrium concept from Rothschild and Stiglitz [Rothschild, M., Stiglitz, J.E., 1976. Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information. Quarterly Journal of Economics 40, 629–649] in a market with asymmetric information, and show that Hamilton's zoning policy plays an essential role in proving the existence and efficiency of equilibrium. We use an idealized large economy following Ellickson, Grodal, Scotchmer and Zame [Ellickson, B., Grodal, B., Scotchmer, S., Zame, W.R., 1999. Clubs and the market, Econometrica 67, 1185–1217] and Allouch, Conley and Wooders [Allouch, N., Conley, J.P., Wooders, M.H., The Tiebout Hypothesis: On the Existence of Pareto Efficient Competitive Equilibria, (2004), mimeograph]. Our theorem is directly applicable to the existence and efficiency of a discrete spatial approximation of mono- or multi-centric city equilibria in an urban economy with commuting time costs, even if we allow the existence of multiple qualities of (collective) residences, when externalities due to traffic congestion are not present.     

Chaos and sector-specific externalities

Benhabib and Farmer [1996. Indeterminacy and sector specific externalities. Journal of Monetary Economics 37, 397–419] explore the possibility of local indeterminacy in a two-sector model with sector-specific externalities. They find that very small sector-specific externalities are sufficient for local indeterminacy. In this case, it is possible to construct sunspot equilibria where extrinsic uncertainty matters. In this paper, I provide a global analysis of their model revealing the existence of Euler equation branching. This branching allows for regime switching equilibria with cycles and chaotic behavior. These equilibria occur whether the “local dynamics” are determinate or indeterminate.     

Just-in-time inventory systems innovation and the predictability of earnings

Firms that adopt just-in-time (JIT) inventory practices do so in order to realize cost savings and improve product quality, but an unexpected benefit to such firms could be a more predictable earnings stream. We examine the relationship between implementation of just-in-time inventory practices and the predictability of future quarterly earnings for a matched-pair sample of 82 firms, half of which have publicly announced that they have adopted JIT inventory practices. We find that one- and four-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly earnings, using either a Brown–Rozeff [Journal of Accounting Research (1979) 179–189] ARIMA or a seasonal random walk expectation model, are more accurate for the firms that have adopted JIT.