实际汇率与中国双边贸易

本文将中国与中国贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率引入一个诱导的出口方程中,并加入中国出口的竞争者与中国的贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率。结果表明,亚洲的一些主要国家和地区是中国出口的竞争者,1997年发生的亚洲金融危机确实使中国1998年和1999年的出口减少。除了海外市场需求和国内供给能力外,中国与贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率,以及中国出口的竞争者与中国的贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率对中国的双边贸易也有显著影响。     

人民币双边汇率与我国贸易收支关系的实证研究:1997-2004

本文的目的在于研究中国和主要贸易伙伴国之间双边汇率与进出口之间的关系,着重考察汇率和进出口之间是否存在长期稳定关系、马歇尔-勒纳条件是否成立以及是否存在J-曲线效应。作者利用中国1997—、2004年实际汇率波动与双边贸易关系进行研究发现,各国之间存在较大的差异。协整检验表明中国与美国、加拿大、韩国、欧元区国家和马来西亚五个经济体的贸易收支和实际汇率之间存在长期稳定关系,而与日本和英国之间却不存在。研究结果还表明马歇尔-勒纳条件只在中国和美国、欧元区国家之间成立。一般脉冲响应函数检验贸易收支对实际汇率冲击的反应,发现中国和美国、欧元区国家的贸易之间存在J-曲线效应。     

中美贸易关系分析

美国是中国第二大贸易伙伴,第二大出口市场,第六大进口市场,第二大贸易顺差来源地;而中国是美国第二大贸易伙伴,第三大出口市场,第一大进口市场,第一大贸易逆差来源地。中美两国的贸易发展对于两国经济的发展有着重要的影响。从2007年的两国贸易关系来看,呈现两大特点：发展迅速,互惠互利;摩擦增多,此起彼伏。两国双边贸易规模继续扩大,互为重要贸易伙伴。但两国在贸易中双边摩擦接连不断,还比较尖锐。2007年中美经贸热点主要集中在贸易逆差、人民币汇率、产品安全、知识产权保护、反倾销和反补贴以及337调查问题上。     

出口贸易及其名义汇率与实际汇率风险——基于中国对主要贸易伙伴国面板数据的实证研究

本文采用中国对28个主要贸易伙伴国出口的面板数据,对比分析了2005年汇改前后人民币名义汇率波动风险和实际汇率波动风险对中国出口的影响.通过实证研究后发现:无论是汇改前还是汇改后的人民币实际汇率波动风险对中国的出口均未产生显著影响;而汇改后,人民币名义汇率波动风险却对中国的出口产生了显著的负向影响.由此可见,相对于实际汇率波动风险而言,名义汇率波动风险对中国出口的影响更显重要.     

影响我国出口增长率因素的实证分析

中国于2001年加入世界贸易组织,在国际贸易上开始深度融入全球化,本文使用2001-2015年OECD国GDP年度增长率和年度人民币实际汇率变化率对中国出口变化率影响进行了实证研究.回归结果显示,中国出口变化率和OECD国GDP增长率呈正向相关关系,与人民币实际有效汇率变化率呈负向相关关系.因此,为了促进中国出口贸易发展,一方面,要加强与贸易大国之间的贸易往来,积极建立自由贸易区,推进一带一路建设;另一方面,自人民币汇率改革以来,人民币实际有效汇率持续上升,对我国出口贸易提出挑战,对此,应当促进人民币国际化,保持汇率稳定,避免过高的人民币升值预期.从以上两方面着手,具体分析在当前背景下如何促进中国出口贸易发展.     

中国对印度的商品出口现状分析

随着中印经济的高速增长和全球化进程的不断深入,两国在国际市场上的地位迅速提高。在此背景下,两大邻国之间的贸易从理论上来看也应该得到相应的发展和深化。然而,本文通过对1992年以来中国对印度出口数据的分析发现,尽管过去20年中国对印度的出口绝对量增长很快,但是从相对量来看,中印双边贸易强度一直低于其它主要贸易伙伴,近年来甚至有中国对印度出口不断乏力的趋势。文章进一步分析了中国对印度的出口结构和贸易成本并发现,导致对印度出口乏力的主要原因有:出口契合度低、产业内贸易低、贸易成本下降的空间有限等。     

贸易收支与实际汇率——中美、中日比较研究

本文以美国和日本两个最大的贸易伙伴作为中国双边贸易收支的分析对象国,运用协整分析、方差分解等技术,比较分析了实际汇率和需求等因素对双边贸易收支的影响。结果表明:实际汇率并不是中美之间贸易收支的主要影响因素,无论在短期还是长期真正影响中美双边贸易收支的因素是美国方面的需求。在短期中影响中日双边贸易收支是我国的需求因素,而长期来看实际汇率对双边贸易收支具有主导作用。     

中韩经贸合作的新形势新机遇

中韩两国建交20余年来,双边关系在各个领域均取得长足进步,经贸合作成果尤其令人瞩目。2012年双边贸易额超过2500亿美元,较建交之仞增加50多倍,年均增幅高达21.7％。两国领导人确立的到2015年使双边贸易额达到3000亿美元的目标很可能提前实现。中国已成为韩国最大贸易伙伴、最大出口市场、最大进口来源国、最大投资目的地,韩国则是中国第三大贸易伙伴、第三大出口市场和第二大进口来源国。     

中国与小岛屿发展中国家贸易特征与影响因素

在分析2001—2017年中国与小岛国贸易总额与贸易差额基础上,运用HM指数和贸易引力模型诊断中国与小岛国贸易依赖程度及贸易影响因素。结果表明:①中国与小岛国贸易总额呈现波动上升,空间分异愈发明显,与加勒比海小岛国贸易额最高,与非洲西海岸小岛国贸易额最低,马耳他是中国最大贸易伙伴。②中国与小岛国贸易差额呈现贸易顺差,且贸易顺差逐年增大,与加勒比海小岛国贸易顺差最大,与非洲西海岸小岛国贸易顺差最小,马绍尔群岛是中国最大商品出口市场。③小岛国对中国贸易依赖度明显高于中国对小岛国贸易依赖度,但这一依赖度整体偏低、波动性强、空间分异明显,所罗门群岛对中国贸易依赖度最高,以木材和木炭出口为主,图瓦卢对中国贸易依赖度最低。④经济规模、人口规模和对外直接投资对中国与小岛国贸易具有正向效应,地理距离对中国与小岛国贸易具有负向效应。     

中韩经贸合作的新形势新机遇

中韩两国建交20余年来,双边关系在各个领域均取得长足进步,经贸合作成果尤其令人瞩目。20l2年双边贸易额超过2500亿美元,较建交之初增加50多倍,年均增幅高达217％。两国领导人确立的到20l5年使双边贸易额达到3000亿美元的目标很可能提前实现。中国已成为韩国最大贸易伙伴、最大出口市场、最大进口来源国、最大投资目的地,韩国则是中国第三大贸易伙伴、第三大出口市场和第二大进口来源国。     

Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU

The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation and income on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices and income. The previous studies examine the problems associated with using aggregate data. The recent studies rely on bilateral data, yet another problem is that data for export and import prices are not available. Thus, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation by using the real exchange rate and the impact of income on bilateral trade. The models are applied between the EU and its major trading partners. Furthermore, the analysis includes the six major trading regions along side the eight major trading countries for 1980–2007, on the quarterly basis. This article uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach advocated by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997). Our results indicate a higher importance of income compared to the real exchange rate in defined bilateral export and import demand functions. In addition, the applied CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests confirm the stability of estimated coefficients in most cases.     

Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the USA

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in four East Asian countries (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand). Specifically, this article aims at determining whether the bilateral real exchange rate volatility between an East Asian country and its trading partner negatively affects the exports of the East Asian country. Considering the dominant roles of the USA and Japan as trading partners of those East Asian countries, this article focuses on the quarterly export volumes of East Asian countries to the US and Japan for the period from 1981 to 2004. Except for the case of Hong Kong's exports to Japan, cointegration tests and estimations of error correction models indicate exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on exports either in the short-run or in the long-run, or both. On the other hand, the real GDP of importing countries and depreciation of real bilateral exchange rates turn out, in general, to have positive effects. Of special interest is the finding that the impact of the exchange rate volatility does not show any stylized differences depending on whether the importing country is Japan or the USA, even though dollar invoicing dominates in East Asia.     

U.S. bilateral trade balances and the dollar

U.S. bilateral export and import values with seven large trading partners are tested for real exchange rate effects over 1975–1985. The results suggest that dollar devaluation would have the most favorable impact on the U.S. trade balance in the case of Japan and the least favorable in the case of Canada.     

A structural VAR analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on Pakistan's textile exports

This paper creates a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model which looks at the macroeconomic factors that impact the export of both finished and unfinished Pakistani textiles between 1980 and 2011. The analysis is unique in two ways: first, it separates unfinished (low value-added) textile exports from finished (high value-added) textile exports; second, it separates out the impact of aggregate exchange rate changes with respect to trading ‘partners’ from aggregate exchange rate changes with respect to trading ‘competitors’. We find that unfinished, or low value-added, Pakistani textile exports were positively impacted by the aggregate consumption of trading partners while finished, or high value-added, textile exports were negatively affected by these shocks. Also, a real depreciation of the Pakistani exchange rate leads to temporary increases in unfinished textile exports but sustained increases in the level of finished textile exports. Finally, positive shocks in the textile exports of competitor countries lead to temporary decreases in both unfinished and finished Pakistani textile exports, but these falls were followed by eventual increases in the exports of both.     

Impact of exchange rate uncertainty on commodity trade between US and Sweden

Previous studies that investigated the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of Sweden employed aggregate trade data either between Sweden and the rest of the world or at bilateral level between Sweden and her major trading partners. In this article, we disaggregate the trade data and employ the import and export data from 87 industries that trade between Sweden and the US. We find that exchange rate volatility has significant short-run effects on the trade flows between the two countries in almost two-third of the industries. However, the short-run effects are translated into the long-run effects in one-third of the cases. Furthermore, the real depreciation of krona against the dollar was found to have favourable effects on the overall trade balance between the two countries.     

The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method

The United States economy suffers from persistent trade deficits, arising from the so-called ‘global external imbalance’. Can the depreciation of the US dollar improve this phenomenon? This study for the first time applies the heterogeneous panel cointegration method to examine the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of the U.S. and her 97 trading partners for the period 1973–2006. Using new annual data, the empirical results indicate that the devaluation of the US dollar deteriorates her bilateral trade balance with 13 trading partners, but improves it with 37 trading partners, especially for China. In the panel cointegrated framework, a long-run negative relationship between the real exchange rate and the bilateral trade balance exists for the U.S.     

Time-varying regional integration of stock markets in Southeast Europe

In an attempt to assess the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance, recent studies are employing disaggregated trade data to avoid aggregation bias. However, since import and export prices are not available at disaggregated level, recent studies are using export and import values rather than their volumes so that they can establish direct relation between inpayments and the exchange rate as well as between outpayments and the exchange rate. This study explores the experience of Malaysia. Bilateral inpayments and outpayments models are estimated between Malaysia and her 14 trading partners using quarterly data and bound testing approach to cointegration. The results show that while real depreciation of the ringgit has short-run effects, in the long-run it increases Malaysia's inpayments from only five trading partners.     

India's trade balance in the 1980s an econometric analysis

The paper is an examination of India's trade balance in the 1980s. The approach attempted is of examining the bilateral trade balances of India with nine trading partners from the non-communist bloc. The long-run equilibrium relations are studied via two VAR models in Johansen's multivariate cointegration framework. Five hypotheses of interest are singled out for attention. The nominal and real exchange rates consistently emerge as important influences on the trade balance. However, as the exchange rates fail weak exogeneity tests, policy implications are not clear cut.