Solving Foreign Trade Puzzles in Post-Communist Transition

This article deals with the foreign trade of East-Central European countries in post-communist transition. It is primarily concerned with explaining certain early transition developments, unexpected and often neglected by policy makers and experts alike. The contribution of foreign trade to the generally unexpected steep output fall registered by each of these countries is discussed, stressing the inevitability of the disappearance of distorted demand patterns with the fall of communism and explaining why distorted demand was bound to affect not only the level of domestic output but also imports associated with the distorted demand. Exports to other former CMEA countries therefore fell precipitously. Other issues analysed in the article concern causes and beneficial effects of the rapid Westward reorientation of foreign trade, as well as the disappearance of another legacy of the communist past, East-Central European Countries', that is dual export structure.     

长三角与珠三角对外贸易发展模式的比较研究

Based on a massive collection of data, this paper tries to make a detailed comparison between the foreign trade development patterns of two export-oriented regional economies: the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. It is shown that both of the deltas have made spectacular progress in foreign trade development. However, the Yangtze River Delta is catching up with the Pearl River Delta, and China’s foreign trade development pattern has changed in recent years from a Pearl River Delta-dominated foreign trade environment to a situation in which the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta together dominate China’s foreign trade. The primary difference in the foreign trade development patterns of these two deltas is that foreign trade in the Pearl River Delta relies more on processing trade, while that in the Yangtze River Delta is more government-oriented with special political zones playing a significant role in its foreign trade.      

Determinants of international fragmentation of production in European Union

The growth in world trade during the last decades was largely caused by increasing bilateral exchanges of parts and components as a consequence of international fragmentation of production. Apparently, the international integration of the Newly Industrializing and Eastern European economies prompted firms in ‘high-wage’ countries to exploit factor price differences in order to increase their international competitiveness. However, theory predicts that, beside factor price differences, international fragmentation of production should be driven by a multitude of additional determinants. Against this background, the present paper reveals empirical evidence on parts and components trade as an indicator for international fragmentation of production in the European Union and determines its main explanatory factors. The results of a panel data analysis show that especially industry specific factors as well as communication and transportation infrastructure are likewise important for shifting production to or sourcing components from foreign countries.     

Interest Groups, Trade Liberalization, and Environmental Standards

In considering a country that imposes a minimum standard on an imported polluting good, which generates negative consumption externalities, we construct a common-agency model, in which a domestic environmental group and a foreign industrial lobby can influence the formation of the minimum standard by providing political contributions to the government. This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization on the political equilibrium environmental standard, the pattern of trade, environmental disutility, and social welfare. We find that trade liberalization tightens the minimum standard, decreases imports of the polluting good, and reduces environmental disutilities. The importing country’s social welfare, however, does not necessarily increase with trade liberalization. The weaker the environmental group’s lobbying efficiency, or the stronger the foreign firm’s lobbying efficiency, the more likely it is that trade liberalization will enhance the importing country’s welfare.     

对外开放与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

Based on an adjusted Solow economic growth model, using econometric tools such as cointegration test and Granger causality test, taking the economic factors such as foreign trade and foreign investment into account, this paper makes regression analysis on the effect of economic opening on China’s economic growth by using the data from 1985 to 2004. The analysis indicates that the domestic capital input is still the primary element that promotes China’s economic growth, by contrast, the effect of foreign trade and foreign investment is faint. It is a bidirectional causality between foreign trade and economic growth, and the adjusting velocity of trade is larger than the foreign direct investment on the balance of the China’s long-time economic growth.      

Estimating productivity and returns to scale in the US textile industry

In light of the textile industry's growing foreign competition, trade deficit and job loss, we estimate its productivity and efficiency for the period 1975–93 utilizing a variable elasticity of substitution production function. The results indicate that, despite job losses, the industry adjusted by increasing labor productivity and maintaining fairly stable profits. This performance does not warrant protectionist policies. However, with an elasticity of factor substitution less than one and decreasing, the impact of factor price increases could result in higher apparel prices and preference for cheaper imports. Furthermore, with an elasticity of capital output rapidly decreasing, significant technological improvements will be required to improve competitiveness since textile production is capital intensive. Recently revised rules on trade liberalization could increase competition in the industry. First version received: October 1999/Final version received: August 2000     

我国与三大贸易伙伴贸易摩擦的特点分析

美国、日本、欧盟是我国三大重要的贸易伙伴，近年来，随着彼此间经贸联系的不断加强，贸易摩擦也频频发生。我国与三大贸易伙伴的贸易摩擦即有共性，又有各自的非经济因素干扰，我们应客观认识这一事实，这对进一步促进我国对外贸易的发展有重要意义。     

Exploring policy options in joint intertemporal-spatial trade models using an incomplete markets approach

In this paper we discuss the desirability of service trade liberlization in the presence of incompleteness of markets where there is both inter-spatial and intertemporal trade between countries. We use numerical simulation methods for insights and relate our discussion to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in the WTO. We interpret the absence of intertemporal trade as an absence of intermediation services provided by both domestic and foreign service providers. For simplicity, we consider extreme cases where intertemporal intermediation services can only be provided by domestic providers, so that when intertemporal trade in services is not allowed, markets are not complete. To our knowledge, this type of models is not used in the trade literature as general comparative statics results are unavailable. We first consider the liberalization of trade in financial services in an inter-spatial and intertemporal model of two countries, and we show how services liberalization can be welfare worsening in the presence of a tariff on spatial trade in goods. We show that this can hold in an artificial world with no domestic financial services provider. We compare financial service trade autarky in which there is no intermediation to financial service trade liberalization which involves costless intertemporal intermediation provided by foreign service providers. We also consider a more complex (and realistic) world where costly intermediation services can be provided by both domestic and foreign providers. This paper draws in part on material of an earlier paper, “Financial Services Trade Liberalization in A Joint Spatial Intertemporal Multi-Country Model” by Huang et al. (2004). We acknowledge the financial support from The Centre for Intentional Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Canada and from National Social Science Foundation of China (SSFC Grant 07AJL002), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant 70825003) and “Humanities and Social Science” Major Project, Chinese Ministry of Education (Grant Number 07JJD790145).     

The impact of West European trade strategies on exports to Eastern Europe

This paper examines the extent to which West European countries have utilized diplomacy and reductions in trade barriers to improve their export performance in East European markets during the 1960's. Equal-price export shares of 7 West European countries are estimated by means of an econometric model, and their behavior over time and among importing regions is related to the commercial and foreign policies of the exporters. Our results demonstrate that East European import decisions have been significantly influenced both by changes in western commercial policies and by diplomatic initiatives such as DeGaulle's effort at détente with the Soviet Union. Our results also indicate that elasticities of substitution in East-West trade are significantly lower than those in trade among western countries.     

Does financial development promote International trade?

Using China’s panel data of 30 provinces during 1990–2003, this paper attempts to explore a possible link between financial development and China’s foreign trade. Four indicators are used to identify the role of financial development, which capture both the scale and efficiency feature of China’s regional financial development. The effects of other variables are also investigated, including traditional factor endowments, foreign direct investment, infrastructure and institutional quality, etc. In general, the estimation results suggest that financial development has a quantitatively large and robust effect on China’s manufactured goods trade, among which the financial efficiency indicators play a more significant role in promoting manufactured goods trade than those scale indicators. Sensitivity estimations show that the effect of financial development on China’s total trade essentially differs from that on trade in manufactured goods.      

European Integration and Manufactures Import Demand: An Empirical Investigation of Ten European Countries

This paper studies import demand in ten European countries over the period 1970–95, and our objective is to investigate whether the process of European integration has affected imports. We provide evidence for parametric change in traditional import demand equations, suggesting that important variables or structural factors are missing from the long-run equations. We present equations based on new trade theory, where effects of technology and foreign direct investment are present. Once we include these there is little evidence that the creation of the Single Market has directly increased aggregated imports in European countries.     

欧债危机与中国出口贸易的动态变化——基于细分贸易方式和商品类别的经验研究

本文梳理了欧债危机对出口贸易影响的作用机制,在此基础上采用我国2008年10月至2011年12月的月度数据,从出口的目标市场、细分商品分类以及贸易方式等多个维度进行了深入的实证研究。研究结果表明：（1）外需冲击是欧债危机影响我国出1：2贸易的最主要因素,国外需求对于我国总体出口的短期弹性和长期弹性分别为2．1和3．1,说明欧债危机引起的国外需求下降对总体出口的影响存在一定的时滞效应。（2）汇率和融资成本因素在本轮欧债危机中,对我国出口贸易的影响则相对较小。（3）外需冲击对不同目标市场、不同产品类别以及不同贸易方式出口的影响程度均存在显著的差异。此外,国外需求是我国出口贸易变动的格兰杰原因。     

Wage inequality in developing countries: South–South trade matters

The relationship between trade liberalization and inequality has received considerable attention in recent years. The major purpose of this study is to present new results on the sources of wage inequalities in manufacturing taking into account South–South (S–S) trade. Globalization has not only lead to increasing North–South (N–S) trade, but it has also changed the direction and composition of trade as more trade is carried out among developing countries. In this study, we find that increasing wage inequality is associated more with the South–South trade liberalization than with the classical trade liberalization with northern countries. A part of this increasing wage inequality due to S–S trade comes from the development of N–S trade relationship in S–S trade that increases wage inequality in middle-income developing countries. This study also seeks to shed some light on the link between the direction of trade and technological change. We explore the fact that S–S trade leads to a technological change biased toward skill-intensive sectors more than N–S trade. This indirect effect increases wage inequality for all developing countries, but it is more important in low-income countries.     

Do BRICS Have Similar Disaggregated Trade Patterns with Different Regions?

This is the first study attempting to investigate the patterns of BRICS’ imports and exports with five United Nations regional groups: the African, Asia-Pacific, Eastern European, Latin American and Caribbean, and Western European and Others. A panel data gravity trade model with series from 2001 to 2016 was used to estimate the gravity variables in the models. The main results provide evidence that reinforced the dissimilarities in the foreign trade patterns of BRICS with these five regional groups. The econometric results substantiated that BRICS’ foreign trade patterns are sensitive to changes in the economies of trading partners from the more developed regions. This is evidence for stronger economic ties between BRICS and the more developed regions such as Western Europe and Asia-Pacific. It also reveals the trade convergence of BRICS in these developed regions.     

Foreign firm entry in an open economy: the case of Portugal

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the entry process of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Portuguese industrial sectors. Portugal presents an interesting case where firms enter to take advantage of export opportunities. The results suggest that foreign firms possess the ability to overcome existing entry barriers that affect domestic firms. Apparently, foreign firms have different expectations about profitability than domestic firms, possibly due to foreign firms’ export-orientation to the rest of the European Union (EU). They appear to desire industries where other foreign firms have clustered. Above all, it appears that these foreign firms enter industries to exploit Portugal's chief location advantage in Western Europe: low wages. Portugal's FDI experience is relevant to other countries that have opened their economies to greater trade and investment and attracted export-oriented firms.     

International convergence in regulation: The case of measurable standards

Recent literature on competition in regulation concludes that the iterative adjustment that may start with mutual recognition is an open-ended process. This paper shows that, even without acceptance of reciprocal minimum standards, a process of iterative adjustment may be triggered by the coexistence of foreign goods with high standard levels and domestic goods with relatively low standard levels. Focusing on the case of international heterogeneity of levels of a specific standard, the paper offers an intuitive counter-argument to the fear that free trade necessarily implies a “race to the bottom“ of standard levels.     

Foreign trade model of the centrally planned economies

This paper presents a linked econometric model of the foreign trade of seven European socialist countries grouped in the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). The model aims at analysing the role of the international and regional trade in the economies of the socialist countries. The central part of the model is formed by foreign trade equations which allow analysis of the economic processes of the CMEA countries in relationships with the intra-CMEA and international trade. The assumptions of the model structure and some empirical results are discussed.     

国内国际双循环相互促进研究——中国规模化经济视角

构建"以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局",并不是忽视国际循环,而是追求国际循环更高质量的发展。本文通过对中国与相同人均GDP时期的日本、韩国和欧美国家进行比较发现,同发展水平下,中国的生产、消费和对外贸易等的规模均远大于这些已经实现工业化的国家。这种规模化发展模式不仅促成了国内大循环强大的生产供给能力和消费需求潜能,而且可以通过出口贸易、对外投资、进口消费和外资引进等多条路径向其他国家释放"工业化红利",加速全球特别是诸多发展中国家的工业化进程,助推国际循环的高质量发展。本文从中国规模化经济视角探讨中国全球工业化的贡献,为国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局提供了理论支持。     

North–South Trade and Pollution Migration: The Debate Revisited

The paper examines the effect of freer North–South trade in goods on pollution, commodity terms-of-trade and national welfare, utilizing a factor endowment framework. North and South are distinguished in terms of the relative endowment of a pollution causing natural resource: South is relatively more resource abundant. Compared to the analysis of Copeland and Taylor (1994)—which is the central work so far on this subject—this paper internalizes the commodity terms-of-trade impact of individual environment policies. It is derived that if countries specialize completely in the free-trade equilibrium, both are induced to reduce their pollution as compared to autarky. It is interesting and paradoxical that the South also reduces its pollution, despite specializing in the pollution-intensive good. Again, contrary to common perception, free trade may entail an overall terms-of-trade loss for the North, while South will always have a positive change in the terms-of-trade. Finally, inspite of better environment, free trade may cause both the countries to gain or lose in terms of aggregate welfare. This research has benefitted from comments received at the conference on International Dimension of Environment Policy organized by the European Science Foundation and Tilburg University, October 7–12, 2000 Kerkrade, The Netherlands and the International Conference on Environment and Development organized by CITD, School of International Studies, JNU, April 7–8, 2005, New Delhi, India, as well as those received from two anonymous referees. A small section of this research was published in Mehra and Das (2002).