A cluster analysis of commercialisation of farmers in developing rural areas of South Africa

The purpose of this article is to classify farmers in developing rural areas according to their commercial orientation and to evaluate their distinguishing characteristics. Farmers in these areas use both farm and non‐farm activities to commercialise to some degree. The aim of the commercialisation strategy is to generate income for acquiring other basic goods and services. A cluster analysis of 392 households surveyed in 1987 in the former KaNgwane identified seven groups of farming households: very low commercial households, moderately commercial households, high agricultural commercial households, livestock commercial households, non‐farm income households, non‐farm and agricultural commercial households and highly commercial households. The characteristics of four of these groups were investigated further. The current status of the commercialisation process suggests several policy directions: food security programmes should be aimed at those lacking resources, who may also be threatened by food shortages; emerging farmers with limited resources should be encouraged to diversify their income‐generating activities ‐ they should be given support (including access to land, markets, credit and management) to encourage them to prosper; and the progressive farmers require enhanced programmes to sustain their competitiveness.     

Environmental and socio-economic factors behind food security policy strategies in Botswana

This article examines the environmental and socio-economic factors influencing food security policy strategies in Botswana. First, the article provides the conceptual background to the magnitude of the issue of food production and security in southern Africa. Secondly, the physical and human environmental parameters influencing food production strategies are elucidated. Thirdly, issues of agricultural production-oriented ideology, including food self-sufficiency and security, food production and consumption trends, food insecurity and nutritional status of population are outlined. Fourthly, strategies for improving availability of and access to food, including policy intervention for food security, are discussed. Finally, the article outlines the findings of study of food security which point to the adoption of agricultural production technologies, extension expertise and provision of financial assistance to farmers. Successes in expanding food production and consumption, and in reducing production fluctuations to minimise dependence on food aid, require improvement in regional infrastructure to facilitate intraregional trade and flows of food from surplus to deficit areas in Botswana.     

An investigation into food-away-from-home consumption in South Africa

Food policy that ignores food-away-from-home (FAFH) in a developing country like South Africa will be misleading given changes in demand for food over time. This study contributes to our understanding of the factors that influence the demand for FAFH in South Africa. Using panel data from the Income and Expenditure Survey, this study analyses the effects of income and socio-demographic variables on FAFH expenditure using a double-hurdle model. The results show that small-sized households headed by younger white females/males and living in an urban settlement are most likely to purchase FAFH while male-headed households spend more than female-headed households. Furthermore, income of the household head is an important determinant of household FAFH expenditures. The income elasticity of expenditure on FAFH is inelastic and a normal good. The small size of the participation elasticities means that growth in the FAFH sector will be driven by households with existing expenditure.     

Food poverty,hunger and household production in rural Eastern Cape households

More than two decades since the advent of democracy in South Africa, the place of small-scale agriculture in rural development, poverty alleviation and food security remains ambiguous and highly contested. However, there is now some new evidence that official income poverty estimates in South Africa may be underestimating the contribution of rural, land-based livelihoods when measuring household well-being. This paper aims to explore this possibility further by identifying how household production activities are associated with improved food security among rural Eastern Cape households in the former homelands. The analysis is based on data from Statistics South Africa’s 2008/9 Living Conditions Survey and its annual General Household Surveys. In adopting a food poverty lens, the findings suggest that hunger levels are lower among farming households in the Eastern Cape even though a higher percentage of these households (relative to non-farming households) live below the national food poverty line. The paper concludes by discussing some implications for policy.     

Food Demand Characteristics in Uganda: Estimation and Policy Relevance

Uganda was highly successful in reducing poverty over the past two decades but made little progress towards household food security. This underlines the need for designing food security interventions customised for household‐specific needs and behaviours. This study estimates Ugandan household demand behaviour with a focus on food consumption paying particular attention to household‐specific characteristics. The results show that preferences to increase calorie‐dense staple consumption, likely associated with food energy deficiency, extend far beyond the percentage of rural Ugandans officially deemed poor. Price elasticities indicate that poor rural households are largely well positioned to compensate staple price increases by substitution as long as they are not already concentrated on the cheapest foods. This flexibility applies less to urban households. The estimated demand elasticities generally vary widely between rural and urban households and depend on expenditure levels. Household‐specific characteristics have significant, sometimes pronounced, influences on demand, as do seasons and regions. The results reflect highly differentiated demand behaviour, which can be utilised to improve the design and evaluation of food security interventions.     

Expenditure patterns and elasticities of rural households sampled in two communal areas of KwaZulu-Natal

Expenditure patterns among a sample of 99 rural households in two communal districts in KwaZulu-Natal were investigated to determine the potential impact of a widespread income shock on household expenditure. The results showed expenditure elasticities of close to unity for food. Low elasticities were found for staple foods. Elasticities for meat, meat products and poultry were close to unity, while horticultural products showed the greatest potential for demand growth within the food category. Of the statistically significant commodity categories, expenditure elasticities for durables, housing and transport were more than double those estimated for the aggregate food category. For consumer items, the district expenditure elasticities were estimated to be 0,76 and 0,71, while expenditure on social obligations would not increase with rural incomes. Wealthier households (the top expenditure decile) have a greater propensity for increased expenditure on transport, while poorer households show a greater propensity for increased expenditure on housing and durables. Although agriculture has the potential to generate widespread growth in rural incomes, the preference for manufactured goods casts some doubt on the strength of consumption multipliers for locally produced farm and non-farm goods in rural KwaZulu-Natal.     

Food security and structural adjustment: Empirical evidence on the food price dilemma in Southern Africa

This article considers effects of price on food security and the food equation in the developing areas of South Africa. Firstly, the food (or hunger) equation is examined in more detail. Secondly, thefood price dilemma is analysed using empirical data obtained elsewhere in sub‐Saharan Africa. Thirdly, the situation in the developing areas of South Africa is examined. Empirical evidence in sub‐Saharan and Southern Africa accentuates the skewness and concentration in the market participation profile of rural households with respect to especially staples. Supply response to higher prices in these areas is also limited. These findings place the food price dilemma on centre stage in Southern Africa.     

Modelling Intercontinental Tourism Consumption in South Africa: A Systems‐of‐Equations Approach

This paper investigates the pattern of inbound tourists' consumption in South Africa, examining four main intercontinental markets and five different tourism goods. The empirical investigation develops an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and it extends recent research by allowing tourists to base their spending decision on the real effective price differences between South Africa and their home country. The results show that tourist spending in South Africa is a luxury good, and tourists react normally to a change in the relative price of goods. The cross‐price elasticities suggest that the preferences of different markets influence their view of substitutability and complementary effects between various products in South Africa.     

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Provincial Data

Using data for the period 2000–2011, we construct province‐level real effective exchange rate (REER) indices for China and test the effect of REER depreciation on regional economic growth in a generalized method of moments regression framework. Our results show that REER depreciation, in general, promotes regional economic growth, through increasing net exports and lowering FDI costs. After dividing the full sample into coastal and inland subsamples, we find that REER depreciation influences economic growth in inland areas but not in coastal areas. This is due to the fact that the inland areas have more surplus labor or other resources to expand their production capacity when REER depreciation leads to increased world demand. Furthermore, compared to inland areas, processing‐and‐assembly trade comprises a larger share of trade in the coastal areas, where traders import more raw materials and intermediate goods to process and assemble goods. When the exchange rate depreciates, the costs of imported materials and immediate goods increase. In this case, the benefits from REER depreciation in coastal areas are offset to some extent and are thus lower than in inland areas.     

Farmers' Access to Markets: The Case of Cotton in Pakistan

Using a cross‐sectional primary dataset collected from a survey of 325 farmers in the seven highest cotton‐producing districts of Punjab Province of Pakistan, the present paper examines cotton farmers' market participation decisions, and the factors driving participation, as well as the impact of participation on net returns. Tobit and censored least absolute deviation models were used to estimate the participation of farmers in markets, and the Heckman two‐stage approach and the propensity score matching method were applied to analyze the impact of participation on net returns, taking into account potential selection bias. The empirical results revealed that households with more education, wealth, and better transport facilities are more likely to participate in the markets. As the distance to market increases, households prefer to sell at the farm gate rather than the market. The results also indicated that households that sell their goods at the market obtain higher net returns than those selling at the farm gate.     

Transaction costs and crop marketing in the communal areas of Impendle and Swayimana,KwaZulu-Natal

High transaction costs are detrimental to the efficient operation or existence of markets for inputs and outputs. The cost of information and the costs associated with the search for trade partners, the distance to formal markets and contract enforcement are likely to influence the marketing of food crops. This study hypothesises that the level of income generated from food-crop sales by small-scale farmers in the Impendle and Swayimana districts of KwaZuluNatal is influenced by transaction costs and certain household and farm characteristics. Regression analysis shows that the depth of marketing methods is significantly influenced by transaction cost proxies, such as cooperation with large commercial farmers and ownership of means of transport. Results from a block-recursive regression analysis show that the level of crop income generated is determined by the depth of marketing methods, the size of allocated arable land and off-farm income. Households with lower transaction costs, sizeable allocated land and off-farm income can be expected to generate higher income from food crops. Investment in public goods such as roads, telecommunications and an efficient legal system (to uphold commercial contracts), as well as farmer support services (input supply, extension, marketing information and research), would probably raise farm and non-farm income by reducing transaction costs. This would increase the effective demand for locally produced goods and services, thus contributing to rural employment and livelihoods within rural communal areas.     

Broiler production in South Africa: Is there space for smallholders in the commercial chicken coup?

It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers. This paper explores the possibilities for integration of small-scale farmers into the mainstream commercial broiler value chain in South Africa. Production costs of small-scale producers are evaluated within the context of their commercial counterparts, with a case study approach. It revealed that small-scale producers pay more for inputs but also receive a substantial premium for sales of live birds in the informal market. This results in attractive gross margins for small-scale producers. There is, however, a production ceiling, due to demand and production considerations, associated with small-scale broiler production. This ultimately results in a dualistic industry with an informal (live sale) value chain at the one end of the spectrum and a sophisticated large-scale commercial value chain at the other. Given the salient production features and investment requirements associated with large-scale broiler production, organic growth from the small-scale value chain into the commercial value chain seems improbable. The dual nature of this industry should therefore be considered when developing policy geared towards development, poverty alleviation and value chain integration.     

浙江农户借贷需求的差异分析——基于浙江省农户借贷行为的调查

本文借鉴社会学的分层理论,按照家庭收入来源的不同,将浙江农户分为四个阶层,通过对不同阶层农户入户调查返回的样本数据进行分析,发现虽然农户对信贷资金的需求总量和额度在不断上升,并由农业生产性贷款向非农经营和消费性贷款转变,但不同阶层农户在借贷需求上的差异很大。     

The demand for residential domestic service in the London of 1901†

This article concerns the effect of income and other variables on the demand for residential domestic service in London in 1901 and presents the first estimated model of the demand for residential service known to the author. It uses previously unexploited data consisting of the incomes and household details of some 500 civil servants. An extension of Becker's model of household production is set out and an ordered probit statistical model of servant demand is estimated. The results confirm the importance of income but also show that the demographic composition of the household was of significance. These results are interpreted in terms of age‐ and gender‐related differences in the supply of labour and the demand for market goods. The results are consistent with the view that middle‐class Edwardian households should be understood as sites of production as well as consumption. A comparison of the statistical results with contemporary recommendations in manuals of household management suggests that those recommendations were typically over‐optimistic. The article presents a ‘ready reckoner’ whereby household income may be estimated from the number of resident servants, but caution in its use is urged.     

Estimation of China's disaggregate import demand functions

We estimate the disaggregate import demand functions for three basic classes of goods as defined in the System of National Accounts (SNA): capital goods, intermediate inputs, and final consumption goods, and use the findings to shed light on the effects of China's economic growth on its current account. The results showed that as China switches from exports to domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth, China's trade surplus would be expected to shrink rather quickly.     

Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications

This paper argues that the twin surpluses in China's balance of payments will disappear in the future as a result of external and internal structural changes. China's current account surplus will diminish as a result of the decline in the goods trade surplus, the expanding service trade deficit and negative investment income. China's capital account might shift from surplus to deficit as a result of shrinking net direct investment inflows and more volatile short‐term capital flows. When the twin surpluses no longer exist, the normalization of the US treasury bond yields will be sped up, terminating the one‐way appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; the People's Bank of China's pressure to sterilize inflows will be alleviated, and new problems for the People's Bank of China's monetary operation will emerge; new financial vulnerabilities for the Chinese economy will arise. Finally, the present paper provides some policy suggestions for the Chinese Government to deal with the declining twin surpluses.     

农业保险功用解构:由农户与政府边界

农业风险的特殊性导致农业保险的高价格。农业保险的高价格与农户的低收入,使农户对农业保险缺乏有效需求。农业保险的外部经济特征和准公共物品属性减少了农户投保的激励,进一步削弱农户的有效需求,从而形成政府对农业保险的需求。农业保险在保障农业再生产顺利进行、保障国家粮食安全、促进农村经济发展、维护农村社会稳定等方面的特殊功能和作用,凸显政府比农户更需要农业保险。政府应承担农业保险发展的主导责任,从立法、经济和行政等方面予以支持。     

DEMAND FOR MONEY AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT FROM UNRESTRICTED ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS

The main aim of this study is to examine empirically the long‐run relationship of money demand and its determinants in South Africa. In contrast with existing studies on the subject, the present study considers various components of real income as determinants. The disaggregated components are final consumption expenditure, expenditure on investment goods and exports. The other determinants are domestic interest rate, yield on government bonds and the exchange rate. The results confirm that the different components of real income have different impacts on the demand for money in South Africa. The presence of long‐run equilibrium relationships between the demand for real M1, M2 and M3 and their determinants is confirmed based on the results of bounds testing.     

THE DEMAND FOR FOOD IN SOUTH AFRICA1

Food consumption is an important issue in South Africa, given its relation to poverty and deprivation. With the pressing need to increase food security, understanding the determinants of the demand for food and having some estimates of the likely impact of price and income changes has become a vital task. There is, however, surprisingly little economic research on this topic and almost none in recent times. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the demand for food in South Africa for the years 1970‐2002. It moves beyond the usual static modelling approach in using a general dynamic log‐linear demand equation and a dynamic version of the almost ideal demand system, to provide estimates of the short‐ and long‐run price and expenditure demand elasticities.     

Access to agricultural extension,credit and markets among small‐scale farmers in southern Zambia

This article used survey data to determine the extent to which small‐scale farm households in the Choma district of Zambia's southern province have access to agricultural extension services, credit and markets. The findings show that the majority of the sample households had access to extension and credit services. They also showed that the resource base or wealth of the households — as manifested by farm size, livestock ownership and human capital or management capacity (the household head's training in agriculture) — is a significant factor when accounting for differential access to extension and credit. On the other hand, study findings suggest that farm households are facing problems with marketing their produce under the liberalised agricultural marketing system. Based on these findings, the article discusses recommendations for providing solutions to some of the problems affecting small‐scale farmers in accessing production services.