The Lifetime Distributional Impact of Government Health Outlays

This article examines the lifetime redistributive impact of government health outlays and finds that such outlays redistribute income from the lifetime rich to the lifetime poor and from men to women.     

Moving towards an Improved Microsimulation Model of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme

Finding ways of curbing government expenditure on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) while maintaining social equity and access to ‘essential’ medicines is at the centre of ongoing public debate. This article describes a microsimulation model of the PBS that simulates current and future use and costs of PBS medicines under existing and different PBS policy settings, and estimates the distributional effects of policy changes. The article outlines future developments that will extend the current model to include health outcomes. Adding health outcomes will enable the debate on PBS sustainability to be advanced beyond the prevailing cost‐containment mentality to consider not only the costs of pharmaceutical use but also the benefits that result from the use of these medicines.     

The Distributional Impact of Selected Commonwealth Outlays and Taxes and Alternative Commonwealth Grant Allocation Mechanisms

This article examines the redistributive impact of Commonwealth outlays and taxes (including outlays directed through and to the States)and two possible alternative systems of distributing Commonwealth funding amongst the States.     

Reducing Child Poverty in Britain: An Assessment of Government Policy 1997–2001

The reduction and eventual elimination of child poverty has become one of the central objectives of the new Labour Government in Britain. Measures to achieve this by changing taxes and benefits and promoting paid work are described. Their effects are assessed using a micro-simulation model. The policy changes will achieve a significant reduction in child poverty but it will remain in 2001 substantially higher than in 1979 and much higher than in most European nations.     

The Distributional Effects of Inflation in Australia 1980–1995

This paper examines the distributional effects of price changes in Australia over the period 1980 to 1995, using equivalent variations and equivalent incomes. The Linear Expenditure System is applied to each of a range of income groups rather than using a single set of parameters. The price changes are found to impose a relatively higher burden on lower income groups in some years, although in other years the higher income groups were affected relatively more. The distribution of equivalent incomes has the highest inequality in years of high overall inflation. However, the effects on inequality are low: the highest increase in inequality as a result of differential price changes is less than one per cent.     

A new model to evaluate the long-term cost effectiveness of orphan and highly specialised drugs following listing on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme: the Bosentan Patient Registry

Abstract

Background: Pharmaceutical subsidy schemes are under increasing pressure to evaluate the cost effectiveness of new highly specialised and orphan drugs for universal subsidy. In the absence of longer-term outcome data, drug sponsors often present modelled data, which can carry a significant level of uncertainty over longer-term projections. Risk-sharing schemes between drug sponsor and government may provide an acceptable method of balancing the uncertainty of longer-term cost effectiveness with the public demand for equitable and timely access to new drugs.

Methods: The Bosentan Patient Registry (BPR) is an example of a unique risk-sharing model utilised in Australia aiming to provide clinical evidence to support the modelled predictions, with the registry survival outcomes linked to future price. Concomitant medication, health and vital status data was collected from clinicians, government health departments and death registries.

Results: The BPR has identified a number of issues surrounding registry governance, ethics and patient privacy, and the collection of timely and accurate data, which need to be addressed for the development of a generic registry model for systematic evaluation.

Conclusion: The success of a generic drug registry model based on the BPR will be enhanced by addressing a number of operational issues identified during the implementation of this project.

Material in this paper was presented in an oral presentation to the National Medicines Symposium: Quality Use of Medicines, 7–9 June 2006, Canberra, Australia.     

Economies of Scale in Australian Banks 1978–1990

This paper examines economies of scale in Australian banks. A bank multi-product cost function is estimated using a translog functional form with data drawn from twelve banks spanning the period 1978 to 1990. Different formulations of the model are estimated. Results prove sensitive to estimation assumptions and data definitions however they support the presence of economies of scale for Australian banking in this period     

Distributional Preferences and the Incidence of Costs and Benefits in Climate Change Policy

We explore the relationship between willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation and distributional preferences, by which we mean individuals’ opinions about who should be responsible for climate change prevention and whether the share of climate change impacts borne by the poor is a cause for concern. We use 1,770 responses to an online stated preference survey. The domestic costs in our survey’s policy choice scenarios are expressed as a set of randomized shares across four different payment vehicles, and the international cost shares are randomized across four groups of countries. We also elicit respondents’ perceptions of the likely regressivity of climate change impacts under a policy of business-as-usual. WTP is higher when larger cost shares are borne by parties deemed to bear a greater responsibility for mitigation, and when respondents believe (and care) that the impacts of climate change may be borne disproportionately by the world’s poor. That WTP for an environmental policy depends on the distributional consequences of the policy is an unsettling result: efficiency assessments are typically assumed to be separate from equity considerations in most benefit-cost analyses.     

Sources of Australian Labour Productivity Change 1950–1994

This study examines sources of Australian labour productivity change from 1950 to 1994. Time-series data are used to estimate a model capturing the interaction between labour productivity, fixed capital, human capital, telecommunications, trade openness and international competitiveness. Attention is given to the time-series properties of these data. ADF tests for unit roots are employed, and the sensitivity of the tests to non-linear transformations and structural breaks are considered. Estimates suggest that policies that promote investment, economic integration and international competitiveness will improve short-run labour productivity. In the long run, fixed capital accumulation is the dominant source of productivity improvement.     

THE EFFECTS OF RECENT STRUCTURAL, POLICY AND EXTERNAL SHOCKS TO THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY, 1996/97–2001/02

The period 1996/97–2001/02 was characterised by rapid economic growth and substantial structural change. This paper analyses this period in detail, relying on results from historical and decomposition simulations with the MONASH model. Changes in the level and composition of economic activity are traced to the effects of a number of government policies, external shocks, and domestic structural changes. The influence of policies such as the GST and tariff reduction proves small, with much of the change in the size and structure of economic activity attributable to technical change.     

The Social Structure of the Australian Urban Labour Market: 1976–1991

Abstract
The changing social structure of the labour market has both distributional and efficiency implications for Australian society. This article analyses the increase in the employment inequality among Australian urban neighbourhoods (that is, Collectors Districts or CDs) between the 1976 and 1991 censuses. When CDs are ranked by socioeconomic status we find that the employment rate falls by more in the low status areas than in other areas. Given that participation and population growth rates are higher in the high status areas, this phenomenon is likely to be driven by differences in employment levels. Shift share analysis of changes in employment levels shows that the lower demand for workers who live in the low status areas has led to falls in employment in those areas. Therefore the structural shift in the Australian economy has been a major explanation of the differences in employment rate within Australian cities. The results raise questions about the current ability of Australia's economy to adjust to the structural change necessary in an open economy .     

The Impact of Health, Education and Housing Outlays upon Income Distribution in Australia in the 1990s

The distributional impact of public expenditure on such programs as health, education and housing is frequently ignored in studies of income distribution. This may bias assessment of both the relative living standards of different types of families at any particular point in time and of trends in income inequality over time. This article provides estimates for the 1990s of the combined distributional impact of public outlays on health, education and housing. The analysis indicates that the major beneficiaries of public outlays on these services are families with children and the aged. The pattern of receipt shows a strong life-cycle effect, with the value of non-cash benefits peaking in the 30s and 40s and rising again in retirement. Non-cash benefits are also shown to have an equalising effect upon income distribution.     

The evolution of male-female earnings differentials in Canadian universities,1970–2001

Abstract .  The evolution of academic salaries and the gender earnings gap in Canadian universities is analysed using a unique Statistics Canada data set containing detailed information on all full-time teachers at Canadian universities over the period 1970 through 2001. Male salaries declined across cohorts, while female salaries remained stable; consequently, male-female earnings differentials have narrowed. Recent years have also seen increasing variation in academic salaries for both men and women. A gender earnings gap remains, the bulk of which can be explained by differences in men's and women's rank and field. The unexplained earnings gap has decreased over time.