Forecasting data vintages

This article provides a discussion of Clements and Galvão’s paper “Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation.” Clements and Galvão argue that a multiple-vintage VAR model can be useful for forecasting data that are subject to revisions. They draw a “distinction between forecasting future observations and revisions to past data,” which focuses forecasters’ attention on yet another real time data issue. This comment discusses the importance of taking data revisions into consideration, and compares the multiple-vintage VAR approach of Clements and Galvão to a state space approach.     

New measure of brand equity status of a basketball club

ABSTRACT

“Brand Status” is defined as a measure that examines the equity “health” and “strength” of a brand in each stage of the brand value chain. A six-stage brand value chain model was developed where Stage I highlights the marketing efforts of the brand equity building; Stage II focuses on the customer’s attitudinal mind-set; Stage III describes actual customer behavioral outcomes (such as attachment and commitment); Stage IV refers to the strength of the brand and its relative advantage in the marketplace (such as brand preference, re-purchase, and premium pricing); Stage V reflects the company gains in sales and profits and the last, Stage VI refers to financial value of the brand for shareholders. Analyzing data obtained from 1,330 fans of basketball clubs gave sufficient evidence to propose a “new” model that can be used to estimate the value scores of the brand’s equity status for each of the various stages in the model and provide the brand’s total brand equity status score.     

Shippers’ opportunities to increase load factor: managing imbalances between required and available capacity

Improving load factor is relevant for shippers due to its potential in reducing both transport costs and emissions. The purpose is to structure shippers’ opportunities to increase load factor according to required and available capacity. A framework is developed from literature, and in-depth understanding is provided by three cases, with data mainly collected through semi-structured interviews. Shippers’ opportunities to increase load factor are structured per decreasing, increasing, or reallocating required or available capacity. Required capacity can be changed by adjusting number of items, item characteristics, and how items are combined. Available capacity can be changed by adjusting number and type of units. Changes that improved load factor are described in detail for each case. Load factor is calculated for the packaging and shipping levels. An approach that logistics managers can apply to identify opportunities relevant to their situations is presented. Findings are relevant to researchers within transport efficiency and green logistics.     

Trust in government and its effect on preferences for income redistribution and perceived tax burden

This paper explores how trust in government shared by neighbors is associated with individual preferences for income redistribution and individual perceptions regarding income tax burden. Using individual-level data from Japan, a nation with shared homogenous racial and cultural backgrounds, this paper controls for unobservable heterogeneity among Japan’s population, thus reducing estimation bias. Three measures for trust in government are used: “trust in ministries and government agencies”, “trust in diet members”, and “trust in members of municipal councils”. After controlling for individual characteristics, the key findings are: (1) people are more likely to express preferences for income redistribution when trust in government in their residential area is high; (2) people are more likely to perceive their tax burden as low when trust in government in their residential area is high; and (3) when the sample is divided into people with above average income and those with below average income, these results are only clearly observed for people with above average income and not those with below average income.     

Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time

US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This article develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: (1) an explicit model of the data revision process and (2) a dynamic factor model that incorporates real-time information from other state-level labor market indicators. We find that the model reduces the average size of benchmark revisions by about 11 percent. When we optimally average the model’s predictions with those of existing models, the model reduces the average size of the revisions by about 14 percent.     

In Sickness and in Health: Implications for Employers when Bipolar Disorders are Protected Disabilities

This paper explores the potential conflict between employment protections afforded to individuals with bipolar disorder, and employers’ obligations to maintain a safe working environment for others in the workplace. Both the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and the Americans with Disabilities Act Amendments Act of 2008 (ADAA) provide workplace protections to those employees or applicants who are classified as qualified individuals with a disability. A disability is “a substantial impairment—a physical or mental impairment—in a major life activity that would substantially limit that major life activity.” ( 42 U.S.C. §§ 12102(1)(A)-(C)), and “mental impairment” is defined to include individuals with bipolar disorder (42 U.S.C. § 1630.2(h)(2)). These statutes further impose a requirement on employers to make reasonable accommodations for such individuals. In essence, they protect the bipolar employee from any discrimination in the workplace based on their disability, to include harassment by coworkers. However, employers may find themselves caught on the horns of a dilemma. Depending on the nature and severity of the bipolar employee’s conduct toward coworkers, they may also be exposed to liability for harm done to coworkers under negligent retention laws, or even the anti-harassment provisions of other equal employment statutes. If a bipolar employee’s negative behaviors toward coworkers are sufficiently severe or pervasive, they can result in coworkers suffering harassment sufficient to constitute actionable conduct under the ADA. To reduce exposure to litigation, employers must understand both their obligations under the ADA, and the nature of bipolar disorder.     

中国出口技术含量地域结构变迁及变化动因

研究目标:廓清中国分企业所有制的出口技术含量地域结构及变化动因。研究方法:基于区分内外资全球投入产出模型的出口技术含量和反事实分析法。研究发现:中国内外资企业出口中来自(内资企业)国内技术含量的比重逐渐强化，表明中国出口实现了一定程度的本土技术升级。对计算机业分析发现，其出口国外技术含量地域结构具有稳定性，但趋于下降，而来自内资企业国内技术含量的贡献不断上升。质和量均对中国出口国内技术含量具有正向促进效应，但更多依赖最终生产工序技术含量的提升。研究创新:首次将中国内外资企业生产异质性纳入分析范畴，科学分析出口技术含量地域结构变迁及变化动因。研究价值:准确理解中国对外贸易技术含量水平与升级。     

哈维的空间理论辨析及对中国空间发展的启示

大卫 哈维的空间理论主要包括“空间修复”“空间正义”和“生态社会主义”思想。哈维的空间理论直指资本主义制度的弊端,开创了当代研究马克思主义地理空间理论的新视角,在一定程度上应该且能够为构建中国特色社会主义空间发展理论所借鉴。满足人的全面发展需要的“空间发展”是克服资本逻辑下的“空间修复”的必然选择,中国特色社会主义的空间发展,必将真正体现出以人民为中心的空间发展理念,从根本上克服资本逻辑对空间生产、空间正义以及生态环境的控制,真正实现空间正义可持续发展下的人与人、人与社会、人与自然的和谐统一,走出一条不同于西方国家被资本所支配的发展道路。     

Dynamic incentive contracts with termination threats

We consider a dynamic moral hazard model where the principal offers a series of short-run contracts. We study the optimal mix of two alternative instruments for incentive provision: a performance based wage (a “carrot”) and a termination threat (a “stick”). At any given point in time, these instruments are substitutes in the provision of incentives. We are particularly interested in the dynamic interaction of these two instruments. Both carrot and stick are used more intensively as the agent approaches the end of his finite life. The sharing of the surplus of the relationship plays a key role: a termination threat is included in the optimal contract if and only if the agent’s expected future gain from the relationship is sufficiently high, compared to the principal’s expected future gain. Also, a termination threat is more likely to be optimal if output depends more on “luck” than on effort, if the discount factor is high, or if the agent’s productivity is low. The model, provided that the optimal contract includes a termination threat, essentially provides an alternative explanation for upward-sloping wage profiles even in the absence of full-commitment.     

Integrated analysis of content and construct validity of psychometric instruments

Establishing adequacy of psychometric properties of an instrument involves acquisition and evaluation of evidence based on item content and internal structure. Content validity evidence consists of subject matter experts providing quantitative ratings of the extent to which items are a representative sample of targeted domain. Evidence of internal structure includes factor analytic studies and examination of item interrelationships based on item responses from participants. Although subject matter expert ratings and participant response data are traditionally analyzed separately, each serves to inform the other in important ways. We propose integrating subject matter experts’ and participants’ data seamlessly to establish a unified model of validity evidence. The approach is applied to an instrument designed to measure nursing home culture change (i.e., resident-centered care). The proposed method has been demonstrated to be useful with a posterior distribution resulting in stable estimates of psychometric parameters superior to traditional analytic approaches. To illustrate the efficacy of the methodology, we present a simulation study and discuss its place in psychometric methods.     

Inpatient bed allocation policy under uncertain capacity

This paper concerns the problem of inpatient bed allocation for two classes of patients (scheduled and non-scheduled) when there is uncertainty about daily available capacity. In the afternoon of each day, patients from the scheduled class, also called backlogged elective admissions, are selected from a waiting list, for the admission on the next day. The non-scheduled class, also called emergent admissions, are new requests that arise randomly each day with emergent needs. The capacity of available beds for a medical specialty to provide hospitalization services is uncertain when backlogged elective patients are chosen. Admitting too many of elective patients may result in exceeding a day’s capacity, which can potentially necessitate “overflowing” or “postponing” some emergent requests that should be performed as soon as possible. Therefore, the problem faced by the medical specialty facility at the decision-making point of each day is how many of the backlogged elective patients can be admitted. We formulate this problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) and study the structural properties of the model to characterize the nature of the optimal policy. We propose easy-to-implement policies (the fixed quota policy and the best fixed quota policy), which perform well under fitted distributions. By reporting numerical analyses using real data from a Chinese public hospital, we finally compare the improvements that our proposed solutions could bring to the hospital with the existing practices under several different cost structures.     

双重买卖中的权利冲突及所有权归属问题探讨

以概念法学的基础理论出发，严采物权变动意思主义。意思主义下双重买卖的成立难以从理论上作出阐释。意思主义下的“不完全物权变动说”与“公信力说”动摇了传统民法的基础理念，逻辑上自相矛盾。形式主义下双重买卖中两个债权合同通常有效，物权合同是否有效，须依法律行为的一般规定进行判断。我国法上的“区分原则”有别于德国法上的“区分原则”，并未表明物权行为的独立性。在所有权归属问题上，意思主义与形式主义都强调了公示的意义，单从结论来看，两者处理是基本一致的。基于理论及现实的考量，我国赋予不动产登记以绝对公信力有可能是有害的。     

A heuristic algorithm for capacity sensitive requirements planning

Available lot sizing rules for use in MRP (Material Requirements Planning) systems ignore capacity limitations at various work centers when sizing future orders. Planned order releases are instead determined by the tradeoff only between the item's set up and inventory holding costs. This limitation can cause unanticipated overloads and underloads at the various work centers, along with higher inventories, poorer customer service, and excessive overtime.This research explores one way to make MRP systems more sensitive to capacity limitations at the time of each regeneration run. A relatively simple heuristic algorithm is designed for this purpose. The procedure is applied to those planned order releases that standard MRP logic identifies as mature for release. The lot sizes for a small percentage of these items are increased or decreased so as to have the greatest impact in smoothing capacity requirements at the various work centers in the system. This algorithm for better integrating material requirements plans and capacity requirements plans is tested with a large scale simulator in a variety of manufacturing environments. This simulator has subsequently undergone extensive tests, including its successful validation with actual data at a large plant of major corporations.Simulation results show that the algorithm's modest extension to MRP logic significantly helps overall performance, particularly with customer service. For a wide range of test environments, past due orders were reduced by more than 30% when the algorithm was used. Inventory levels and capacity problems also improved. Not surprisingly, the algorithm helps the most (compared to not using it at all as an MRP enhancement) in environments in which short-term bottlenecks are most severe. Large lot sizes and tight shop capacities are characteristic of these environments. The algorithm works the best when forecast errors are not excessive and the master schedule is not too “nervous.”This proposed procedure is but one step toward making MRP more capacity sensitive. The widely heralded concept of “closed-loop” MRP means that inventory analysts must change or “fix up” parts of the computer generated material requirements plan. What has been missing is a tool for identifying the unrealistic parts of the plan. Our algorithm helps formalize this identification process and singles out a few planned order releases each week. This information comes to the analyst's attention as part of the usual action notices. These pointers to capacity problems go well beyond capacity requirements planning (CRP) and would be impossible without computer assistance.Our study produced two other findings. First, short-term bottlenecks occur even when the master production schedule is leveled. The culprits are the lot sizing choices for items at lower levels in the bills of material. “Rough-cut” capacity planning, such as resource requirements planning, therefore is not a sufficient tool for leveling capacity requirements. It must be supplemented by a way to smooth bottlenecks otherwise caused by shop orders for intermediate items. Second, the disruptive effect of large lot sizes is apparent, both in terms of higher inventories and worse customer service. Large lot sizes not only inflate inventories, but paradoxically hurt customer service because they create more capacity bottlenecks. The only reason why management should prefer large lot sizes is if set-up times are substantial and cannot be efficiently reduced. This finding is very much in step with the current interest in just-in-time (JIT) systems.     

A goal programming model for the siting of multilevel EMS systems.

Facility siting models known as location covering techniques have proven to be useful particularly for emergency medical services (EMS) planning, given the importance of ambulances responding to demand within some maximum time constraint. These models represent a set of methods which focus the health planner's attention on the access of people to health care, since they attempt to “cover” people in need of service within some specified time standard.This research develops a technique for the locational planning of sophisticated EMS systems, characterized by multiple levels of emergency health services. Specifically, a two-tiered system with “basic life support” and “advanced life support” capabilities is modeled as a goal program.By applying location covering techniques within a goal programming framework, this study develops a method for the siting of multilevel EMS systems so that (1) each service level maximizes coverage of its own demand population, and (2) “back-up” coordination between levels is assured. The usefulness of this goal program as a health planning tool is evidenced in the model's explicit articulation of EMS policy objectives and its ability to link system levels in terms of “goal-directed behavior”. The working of this multilevel covering model is demonstrated by reference to EMS planning scenarios and related numerical examples.     

The Throwaway Culture in the Economy of Exclusion: Pope Francis and Economists on Waste

An essential part of Pope Francis’s critique of the “economy of exclusion” is the concept of the “throwaway culture,” which is an attitude and a reality that goes beyond mere exclusion. Francis is building on critiques of consumerism (what John Paul II called “economism”) that noted both the environmental impacts of unnecessary waste and the social and human impact of reducing humans to mere consumers—the idea that happiness is shopping. Francis adds to this a concern for the people on the margins of society who are treated as disposable and for the consequences of climate change, both of which are connected to the throwaway attitude. This article looks at Francis’s views within the tradition of Catholic social thought and at how economists, especially Adam Smith, who provided the foundation for modern economics, looked at waste and consumerism.     

论区域经济的视域与关切——新冠肺炎疫情的启示

人们对现实经济的认识,实际上是被一定的范式承诺所“框定”的。范式承诺决定了观察和感受经济的视域境界,视域境界决定了人们所看到的经济世界图景。人们观察和判断经济现象并非只有一个永远不变的视域,视域实际上是多样的,而且是可能会发生变化的。新冠肺炎疫情突出显示了视域境界和社会关切的改变,如何产生巨大的社会性影响,决定着对社会经济的态势判断的思维倾向。在其影响下,区域经济态势几乎断然改变,进入了“另一个世界”。信息传播使得域际关切更为突出,各地区都希望增强信息透明度,作为进行政策安排和民心安定的重要条件。新冠肺炎疫情使我们更深切地理解供给侧结构性改革的普遍性意义。让整个系统的各个方面都更具内在活力、反应效能和责任担当,国家治理体系和能力才能实现现代化。经历这次新冠肺炎疫情之后,整个国家及各地区经济,将进入一个浴火重生般的新视域世界,关切取向必将有新的选择,值得区域经济学者们进行更深入的研究。     

Marginal effects of public employment on unconditional distribution of wage income in China

This paper examines the marginal effects of an employment expansion in China’s public sector on the unconditional distribution of “wage income” using the unconditional quantile estimation suggested by Firpo et al. (2009). Empirical data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey is split into three sub-samples to eliminate the effects of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subprime financial crisis in 2008 on our empirical results. To explore the marginal effects, the empirical unconditional distributions of wage income “before” and “after” an expansion of the public employment have been graphed and compared. It has been found that an expansion of China’s public employment reduces the dispersion of wage income and hence alleviates income inequality in China. Besides, an expansion of public employment makes the symmetrical unconditional distribution of wage income become leftward skewed. Given these findings, an expansion of the public employment caused by the strategy of “guojin mintui” could mitigate China’s income inequality.     

The Importance of Deviance in Intellectual Development

Abstract . This paper seeks to explain the success of public choice at Virginia Tech in the 1970s in two ways. First, I reflect on my graduate school experience at Virginia Tech, with the intent of identifying particular characteristics of the people and location of Virginia Tech, including its remoteness, that facilitated the development of the paradigm shift that public choice, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, represented. Second, I argue that the success of public choice at Virginia Tech depended critically upon the willingness of the people here to disconnect from professional constraints and to think outside the conventional economics box. I make this point with the aid of a computer simulation of the evolutionary development of “people” (or “trials”) as they attempt to scale the highest “mountain” within a “mountain range,” the exact features of which (including the heights of the various “mountains”) are not known before the climb is started. In such an environment, finding the highest peak, the assumed goal, is critically dependent on a measure of “deviance,” or the willingness to shun short‐run opportunities of exploiting accepted methods.     

Tracking innovation: The need for reliable measures of its presence and effects

It is generally accepted that innovation is an essential ingredient of corporate success and, when pervasive, strengthens the economy while warding off foreign competition. Many point to a perceived weakening of this process in U.S. firms as a contributing factor to the steady decline of productivity growth vital to our nation's stability. They clamor for government programs to encourage technical venturing, embracing the “R & D hypothesis” which declares that privately sponsored research is the wellspring of innovation, and thus the key to a producer's prosperity — leading to more vigorous industries.In response, Washington is seeking ways to spur private spending on R & D during this era of diminished Federal backing for research. Such initiatives are handicapped by a lack of data establishing the existence and extent of the apparent slump in industrial creativity. Also there is scant information available to management that demonstrates a close correlation between fortunes of the firm and activities characterized as innovations. Without such evidence, business appears reluctant to abandon its cautious attitude towards support of R & D that cannot be readily commercialized.Little is known about innovation's economic impact or bearing on the survival of an enterprise. The connection between industrial research and the launch of desirable products is too abstruse to permit the assumption that in-house R & D inevitably spawns viable innovations. We do not have data which permit rational decisions for the effective management of innovation by firms, or the design of a workable model for the process. This information gap has a deleterious effect in industries traditionally dependent upon research, and leads to strategies — aimed at fostering innovation — that are inadequate, badly timed or ill conceived.An innovation stems from a series of management decisions motivated by the quest for profits and tempered by industry conditions — government incentives notwithstanding. Companies pay for R & D which promises revenues that would not otherwise appear, and back a new product when the expected return is comparable to that from less risky alternative investments. They require an easily administered method for verifying, in accounting terms, the outcome of an innovation so its contribution to profits can be contrasted with the yield from product improvements or line extensions. Management could then weigh a proposed innovation the same way it evaluates other commitments.Authors of public policy need to monitor the pace of innovation on a regional or national scale so that they can determine when stimulants are called for — to restore this activity to the desired level. The traditional indices of innovation's intensity are imprecise, and misleading if the purpose be to identify a trend. “R & D expenditures” must be viewed with circumspection for they are not always incurred in pursuit of innovations, especially with increasing outlays for compliance with government regulations. “Patents awarded” or “technical articles published” are scant proof of seminal activity, and “government contracts awarded” is not a useful statistic. A true “index of innovation” is needed to guide public policy — one founded on data tied to the launching of products.In conclusion, this article suggests a technique for quantifying innovation inside the firm, as a planning tool of management and to provide the data base for a meaningful “index of innovation”. It describes the index, to be derived from data reported by a representative sample of geographically dispersed companies. A procedure is outlined for generating such data in firms, collecting it by a central authority, and calculating the index.