BORDER BARRIERS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE IMPACT OF THEIR ELIMINATION: EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIA

We investigate the impact of the elimination of import tariffs and nontariff policy barriers (NTPBs) on agricultural trade in a notional East Asian Free Trade Agreement using a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-based computable general equilibrium model. The investigation is divided into two parts. We first measure the NTPBs by employing a widely used method derived from the literature on border effects. Then, by adding into the GTAP database our estimates on the NTPBs, which the original GTAP database by its nature does incorporate, we compute the impact of the entire elimination of policy barriers (the complete reduction of import tariffs and NTPBs) on GDP. The result shows that there are remarkable differences between the effect of abolition of import tariffs and that of entire elimination of all import barriers.     

An Assessment of the Impact of a COMESA Customs Union

Abstract: The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) launched its free trade area (FTA) on 31 October 2000 and is in the process of forming a custom union. A Common External Tariff (CET) with respect to all goods imported into the member states from third countries shall be established and maintained. The purpose of this study is three‐fold. The first purpose is to assess the impact of the CET. Here we lowered only external tariffs to all regions leaving tariffs within COMESA as they are now to reflect the real situation. In this scenario, we take into consideration sensitive products which COMESA members might want to exclude from the CET to protect their markets. The second purpose is to implement the COMESA FTA fully. That is, to remove tariff on trade within COMESA states totally. This part of the study will give us an idea on whether countries within COMESA are losing by not implementing the FTA and if so, by how much. The third purpose is to assess the impact of the CET in a fully operational COMESA FTA. The methodology used for this analysis is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) — more specifically the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) framework is used. Two standard GTAP closures have been modified to more realistically represent the African economies, namely the employment closure and the trade balance closure.     

Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas

Trade negotiations deal with cuts in bound duties, which differ substantially from applied preferential duties, and from MFN applied duties. Based on WTO’s Consolidated Tariff Schedules (CTS) database and on national sources, this paper proposes a systematic assessment of ad valorem-equivalent bound duties at the detailed product level, for almost all WTO members. Fully consistent with the assessment of applied protection provided in the MAcMap-HS6 database, this work allows the full structure of protection—bound, MFN applied, preferential applied duties—to be accurately assessed. We thus provide the first worldwide assessment of the binding overhang, i.e. the gap between bound and applied MFN tariffs. We also assess the likely applied-protection impact of an agreement in the Doha Round. JEL no. F13     

Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?

We estimate the impact of global merchandise trade distortions and services regulations on agricultural value added in various countries. Using the latest versions of the GTAP database and the GTAP-AGR model of the global economy, our results suggest real net farm incomes would rise in developing countries with a move to free trade, thereby alleviating rural poverty—despite a terms of trade deterioration for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries. We also show, for several large developing countries, the contribution of their own versus other countries’ trade policies. JEL no. C68, D58, F17, Q17     

Market Access Asymmetry in Food Trade

Using a bilateral trade equation derived from a monopolistic competition model, we investigate market access reciprocity in food trade among the United States, Canada, the European Union and Japan. We explore country- and industry-specific market access asymmetry through a border effect approach. Our findings reveal marked asymmetries in reciprocal border effects, both across countries and industries. Trade policy measures, particularly non-tariff barriers (NTBs), the degree of product differentiation and a ‘home bias’ in preferences, are important factors in explaining levels in border effects. Asymmetries in border effects are mainly explained by trade policies. JEL no.  F13, F14, Q17     

Econometric Analysis of the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement*

This paper investigates whether the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISLFTA) has had trade creation or trade diversion effects on the rest of the world. Using data on tariffs at the six‐digit level of the Harmonized System classification for the period 1996 to 2006, the methodology of the present paper follows a study on the North American Free Trade Agreement by Romalis (2005 ) We use the commodity and time variation in the tariff preferences allowed under ISLFTA to identify its effect on sourcing of different products from the ‘control country’ to the ISLFTA region. Using a fixed effects model, we find that the ISLFTA has had small trade creation effects in the control countries.     

De noordse economische integratie

Summary The post-war attempts to achieve a Nordic regional economic integration have not yet been successful, partly as a result of the establishment of the European Free Trade Association. These attempts were apparently shelved when two of the four Nordic countries — Denmark and Norway — applied for a membership of the European Common Market. However pending the negotiations for entry to the EEC, a draft Treaty for the establishment of the Organization for Nordic Economic Co-operation (Nordec) was drawn up on the instruction of the governments of the Nordic countries. In this paper the possible effects of this regional Nordic Common Market, when established, are briefly analyzed. The author also investigates the increase in intra-Nordic trade since EFTA was created. In view of the interprenetation of Nordic trade flows resulting from EFTA, it is highly unlikely, that Sweden could remain outside a large, integrated European market, which Denmark and Norway had joined.      

The common external tariff of a customs union: Alternative approaches

The most prominent exception to the cardinal ‘most favoured nation’ principle of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1947 is in its Article XXIV relating to Customs Unions (CUs) and Free Trade Areas (FTAs). This article required, first, the general incidence of the duties and regulations of commerce imposed by members of the CU with respect to trade with non-members shall not on the whole be higher or more restrictive than those that were applicable prior to the formation of CU or FTA, and, second, that substantially all the trade among members be free. Neither requirement was very operational, because the phrases ‘general incidence’ and ‘substantially all’ being difficult legal concepts to apply. The agreement of 1994 establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO) has made ‘general incidence’ precise by defining it import-weighted average of height of barriers but without offering any rationale for the definition. Now that preferential trading arrangements such as FTAs are proliferating, reform of Article XXIV is of importance. This paper describes alternative approaches to the central question of common external tariffs of a CU. Taking off from the work of Kemp and Wan who showed the existence of a common external tariff of CU that keeps the welfare of non-members unchanged while revising that of the CU as compared to the situation prior to the formation of CU, it characterizes such a tariff structure for two leading benchmark examples as consumption-weighted average of pre-union tariffs and subsidies in the member countries.     

Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study

At the same time as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been encouraging trade liberalized, there has been a proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). These RTAs also aim to reduce trade barriers, but they do so it in a preferential way. There is continued debate as to whether such RTAs are an effective way of achieving free trade, or if increased trade among members causes less trade with non-member countries? If RTAs increase total trade, this is known as ‘trade creation’, whereas if the extra trade occurs at the expense of non-members, this is called ‘trade diversion’. Trade creation implies improved welfare, whereas ‘trade diversion’ may adversely affect welfare. This paper examines five different RTAs using a gravity model to see if they have been trade creating or trade diverting. Annual data from 26 countries covering five RTAs in the Asia and Pacific region for the years 1980–2000 was used.The results show that the effects of the different RTAs varied remarkably. The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Australian and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER) fostered greater trade with trading partners and with the rest of the world. While the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) and the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) tended to be trade diverting, that is, they expanded intra-bloc trade at the expense of trade with others.     

Trade adjustment in the WTO system: are more safeguards the answer?

For countries to engage successfully in the international tradingsystem, their industries, firms, and workers must respond continuallyto new conditions of competition. The continuing need to adjustarises both from policy changes approved in multilateral negotiations—e.g.implementation of trade liberalization commitments, preferenceerosion, or adverse terms-of-trade consequences of export subsidyelimination—and from ongoing changes in competitive pressuresinherent in a liberal trading system—e.g. effects on comparativeadvantage of changes in technology or factor supplies. But thepolitical response to a situation calling for adjustment isoften a call for ‘safeguards’—whether as anex ante provision in negotiated agreements or as an ex postmeasure once the agreement has been signed and the reality ofnew conditions takes shape. This paper examines the range ofadjustment problems confronting the current and future internationaltrading system, the economic arguments for intervention to dealwith these problems, the adjustment environment as set out inthe current World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreements, and proposalsfor reform. While the adjustment problems we discuss apply toboth rich and poor WTO member countries, we highlight the issuesof adjustment especially relevant for developing countries.     

Regional free-trade areas: sorting out the tangled spaghetti

As a result of the difficulties in negotiating the liberalizationof trade globally, countries seek liberalization among smallergroups. We describe open regionalism as one such attempt todo this, and show why after a decade of success it ran intothe ground as a strategy. The formation of discriminatory regionalfree-trade areas (FTAs) is sometimes seen as another responseto this problem. This paper point outs what is wrong with thisresponse—that it distorts trade patterns and thereby setsup an unpleasant prisoner's dilemma—and suggests someways forward. We propose the formation of open trading arrangements(OTAs) and the establishment of a Trade Transparency Commissionin each country that is participating in an OTA. We also suggestglobal regulation of trade diversions caused by all FTAs, whetherOTAs or not. Ultimately, the return to health of the globaltrading system will require expanded understanding of the basicinsight of economics, that liberalization enhances the welfareof citizens of the liberalizing country.     

Using home-biased demand to test trade theories

Using Home-Biased Demand to Test Trade Theories. — This paper proposes a discriminating hypothesis that distinguishes between two paradigms of international trade: (1) constant returns and perfect competition (CRS-PC) and (2) increasing returns and monopolistic competition (IRS-MC). The discriminating hypothesis rests on the different degree of home bias among “consumers.” It predicts a positive relationship between a country’s share in world output and a country’s share in the world home-biased expenditure if the sector is IRS-MC and no relationship if the sector is CRS-PC. Accordingly, 7 sectors (covering 54.86 per cent of industrial output) of the eight countries under investigation were associated with the IRS-MC and 10 sectors (41.15 per cent) with the CRS-PC paradigm.     

Impacts of trade reform: sensitivity of model results to key assumptions

The WTO’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001. However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.

Entrepreneurship and intra-industry trade

Entrepreneurship and Intra-Industry Trade. — The paper introduces entrepreneurs into the theories of intra-industry trade and investigates the role of a country ’s “entrepreneurship” in international trade. It is shown that therelative entrepreneurship between countries determines the terms of trade but the welfare effects are not obvious. Among other things, it is found that (1) an increase in exports improves the terms of trade and (2) an increase in country size is not always beneficial.     

Vertical specialization and intra-industry trade: The role of factor endowments

Vertical Specialization and Intra-Industry Trade: The Role of Factor Endowments. — In this paper, we use vertical differentiation models of the Falvey-Kierzkowski type to study the effects of differences in factor endowments on vertical intraindustry specialization. We focus on Spanish intra-industry trade, as Spain typically exports low-quality varieties to the northern countries of the OECD and high-quality varieties to the southern ones. In order to achieve more general results, we consider different types of productive factors: physical, human and technological capital. Our results confirm that factor endowments play a significant role in explaining vertical intra-industry specialization.     

De vraag naar openbaar vervoer in de drie grote steden

Summary This is an analysis of the demand for public transport—provided by tramway and bus services—in Amsterdam, The Hague and Rotterdam. It is principally concerned with the estimation of price elasticities and with an assessment of the future growth of demand. The analysis is based on monthly figures of the numbers of tickets of six different kinds sold at known tariffs in the three cities from 1948 to 1964. The method of analysis is least-squares regression of demand on real price and time; dummy variables are used to eliminate the seasonal variation of demand and to account for changes in the tariff structure as in the case of the introduction of a new type of ticket with special facilities. The data for the three cities are analysed separately throughout. To begin with, demand for each particular type of ticket was analysed separately. The resulting estimates show no coherent pattern in each of the cities. Matters improve, however, when demand is grouped together—according to the type of ticket—in two categories only,viz., “travel to and from work” and “all other transport”. Demand is inelastic with respect to price for both categories, but the price elasticities differ: they are about 0.80 for the first group, and only 0.40 for the second. There is also a marked difference in the trend coefficients. Demand for travel to and from work is increasing annually, while other transport is declining at a rate of about 7%. These results apply uniformly for each of the three cities considered.      

Intra-industry trade of India: Trends and country-specific factors

Intra-industry Trade of India: Trends and Country-Specific Factors. — The analysis in this paper confirms that trade liberalization biases trade expansion towards intra-industry trade (IIT) in India. The increased level of IIT is largely exportled, that is, caused by a faster growth of exports than of imports. India’s IIT is more intense with high-income countries and is characterized by a greater extent of complementarity. Further, certain country-specific factors which are found to be crucial in the models of vertical IIT are pertinent in influencing the pattern of India’s bilateral IIT.     

The link between immigration and trade: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Immigration and Trade: Evidence from the United Kingdom. — This paper investigates the link between immigration and trade using recent UK data. Immigration from non-Commonwealth countries is shown to have a significant export-enhancing effect. By contrast, immigration from Commonwealth countries is found to have no substantial impact on exports. We conjecture that this could be because immigrants from the UK’s former colonies do not bring with them any new information that can help substantially reduce the transaction cost of trade between their home countries and the host nation. The study also reveals a pro-imports effect of immigration from the non-Commonwealth countries, whereas immigration from the Commonwealth appears to be reducing imports, perhaps reflecting trade-substituting activities by immigrants.     

Liberalization of EU telecommunications and trade: theory, gravity equation analysis and policy implications

The liberalization of telecommunications has contributed to considerable price reductions in international telephony and to rising volumes of telecommunications. This raises the issue of the economic impact of international telephony. Falling international information and transaction costs should stimulate competition and enlarge the market radius for producers in the tradables sector—this lets us to expect trade creation effects of international telecommunications; this in turn should raise output provided that more intensive international telecommunications stimulates international diffusion of knowledge or brings about trade-related specialization gains. Based on a modified gravity equation which is taking into account the role of international telecommunication volumes—based on new ITU data—we show that international telephony has a significant positive impact on trade volume: A rise of the international telecommunications volume by 10% raises trade by 2% in Europe. At the same time the coefficients of the traditional variables, GDP in the exporting and the importing country, are smaller than in traditional approaches. Thus from a policy perspective the modernization and growth of the international telecommunications network—within a system of enhanced competition—is crucial for Europe: economic integration will be reinforced. From this perspective the Lisbon Agenda is right to emphasize the importance of creating a digitally networked knowledge society.

Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?

Developing countries traditionally experience pass-through of exchange rate changes that is greater and more rapid than high-income countries experience. This is true equally of the determination of prices of imported goods, prices of local competitors’ products, and the general CPI. But developing countries in the 1990s experienced a rapid downward trend in the degree of pass-through and speed of adjustment, more so than did high-income countries. As a consequence, slow and incomplete pass-through is no longer exclusively a luxury of industrial countries. Using a new data set—prices of eight narrowly defined brand commodities, observed in 76 countries—we find empirical support for some of the factors that have been hypothesized in the literature, but not for others. Significant determinants of the pass-through coefficient include per capita incomes, bilateral distance, tariffs, country size, wages, long-term inflation, and long-term exchange rate variability. Some of these factors changed during the 1990s. Part (and only part) of the downward trend in pass-through to imported goods prices, and in turn to competitors’ prices and the CPI, can be explained by changes in the monetary environment—including a fall in long-term inflation. Real wages work to reduce pass-through to competitors’ prices and the CPI, confirming the hypothesized role of distribution and retail costs in pricing to market. Rising distribution costs, due perhaps to the Balassa-Samuelson-Baumol effect, could contribute to the decline in the pass-through coefficient in some developing countries.