北京市私人小汽车消费与经济增长的协整及因果关系分析

运用协整理论和因果关系检验理论,对北京私人小汽车消费与经济增长进行协整关系检验,并分析其Granger因果关系。研究结果表明:北京市私人小汽车消费与经济增长之间具有协整关系,且经济增长是私人小汽车消费的单向Granger原因,而私人小汽车消费对经济增长的影响不显著。基于实证结果得出私人小汽车消费增速回落并不会显著引致经济增长增速回落的结论。     

基于协整理论的中国人均收入增长与产业结构变动关系研究

改革开放30年来,我国农村居民人均纯收入与城镇居民可支配收入均有了较大增长。文章利用协整理论分析了1978～2007年二者与产业结构之间的关系。研究表明,农民人均收入在1978～1991年仅与第一产业存在协整关系,在1992～2007年与第一、二产业均存在协整关系,与第三产业始终未出现协整;城镇居民人均收入在1978～2007年始终与第二产业协整,与第一产业未出现协整,与第三产业的协整出现于1996～2007年。     

宁波高新技术产品出口与出口贸易关系的协整分析

本文引用协整分析和Granger因果检验法,利用宁波1995～2004年的年度数据检验了宁波对外贸易与经济增长协整关系和因果关系,实证结果表明:宁波高新技术产品出口与出口贸易之间存在唯一的协整关系,而且两者之间存在着互为因果的反馈性关系。     

沪深三大股指与股指期货间关系研究

文章利用ADF检验、Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验,对沪深三大股指与股指期货间的协整关系和格兰杰因果关系进行了研究。研究结果表明,股指期货是三大股指的格兰杰原因,而三大股指都不是股指期货的格兰杰原因。股指期货与沪深300指数、上证指数具有长期稳定的协整关系,但与深证成指不存在这种关系。最后用误差修正模型对它们之间的协整关系进行了描述。     

技术创新、产业结构升级与苏州经济增长关系研究

文章采用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验,根据苏州市1992—2009年的时间序列数据,实证分析技术创新、产业结构升级与苏州经济增长之间的关系。协整检验表明：苏州市的技术创新与经济增长存在协整关系,苏州市的技术创新与产业结构升级也存在协整关系,但苏州市的产业结构升级与经济增长之间不存在协整关系。Granger因果关系检验表明：苏州市的技术创新与经济增长存在双向的Granger因果关系,苏州市的经济增长与产业结构升级存在单向的Granger因果关系,而苏州市的技术创新与产业结构升级之间不存在Granger因果关系。     

我国出口产品结构与劳动生产率提高的实证分析

本文通过对我国1980年以来的初级产品出口,工业制成品出口和名义劳动生产率的数据进行协整分析,揭示了我国名义劳动生产率与初级产品出口有协整关系,与工业制成品出口不存在协整关系,并根据格兰杰表示定理运用EG两步法,建立误差修正模型,对我国出口产品结构与劳动生产率的关系做出评价。     

北部湾城市群基础设施与经济协调发展研究

本文从基础设施的不同功能出发,以经济性、生活性、社会性来划分北部湾地区城市群的基础设施指标,运用VAR模型实证分析了1990～2009年北部湾城市群基础设施与经济发展之间的关系。结果表明,经济增长与基础设施之间有正向协整关系,其中社会性和经济性基础设施对经济增长显示正向协整关系,生活性基础设施与经济增长是负向协整关系。     

北京与上海物流业发展的比较分析

本文分剐选取了北京与上海物流业中的部分指标。运用描述统计分析、协整检验分析方法，分析了北京与上海物流业的发展趋势以及与经济增长关系等问题，为政府实施恰当的政策提供理论依据和政策参考。实证分析结果表明：北京与上海的物流业与GDP增长率之间存在长期的均衡关系。     

我国农产品期货价格与现货价格关系分析

文章时豆油和小麦期货与现货产品价格之间的关系进行了检验,发现小麦期货和豆油期货市场都是弱势有效的.小麦的一年期期货价格和一年期现货价格可以互相进行预测.豆油的一年期期货价格和一年期现货价格二者间不存在协整关系.豆油期货距交割前3个月的期货价格和现货价格存在协整关系,而超出这个时间跨度,期货价格与现货价格之间的协整关系不再存在.     

上证A股与B股协整关系的实证研究

本文基于协整理论，使用1998年1月5日至2001年2月19日和2001年2月20日至2007年7月20日两个阶段上证A股指数与B股指数数据对上证A股与B股之间的关系进行了研究。结果显示．B股市场对境内投资者开放前A股与B股之间不存在协整关系．而B股市场对境内投资者开放后，A股与B股存在协整关系。进一步地对不存在协整关系的第一阶段进行了Granger因果检验：对存在协整关系的第二阶段构建了误差修正模型，针对所得结论提出了建议。     

Economic transition and demand pattern: Evidence from China's paper and paperboard industry

In this study, we investigate the demand pattern and structural changes during the economic transformation using data from the paper and paperboard industry in China. Instrumental variable estimations as well as co-integration analysis and error correction models are applied to the analysis. Our results show that in the early stages of economic reform before 1993, the demand did not respond to price changes; while in the later stages, the demand shows significant responses to its own-price and the price of international markets. In particular, since 1992, the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for domestically made paper and paperboard products becomes, respectively, − 0.69 and 0.59, in the range found in some market economies. We also find that imports are substitutes for domestically made paper and paperboard products, but the reverse is not true; and in the later stage of economic transition, the reliance on international market has increased, as reflected by the lower price elasticity of imports.     

Oil demand in the US and Japan: why the demand reductions caused by the price increases of the 1970's won't be reversed by the price declines of the 1980's

This paper analyzes the imperfect price-reversibility (‘hysteresis’) of oil demand in the US and Japan. We test econometrically oil demand data, disaggregated into transportation oil and non-transportation oil uses.The oil demand reductions following the oil price increases of the 1970's will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980's. The responce to price cuts in the 1980's is perhaps only one-fifth that for price increases in the 1970's. This has dramatic implications for projections of oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions.We also consider the demand effects of a price recovery in the 1990's, especially whether the effects would be as large as for the price increases of the 1970's or only as large as the smaller demand reversals of the 1980's. On this the results are inconclusive.     

On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors?

This paper assesses the costs of forming a monetary union among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by looking at economic linkages within the GCC, and between the GCC and the potential anchors (the US, and major European countries such as France, Germany and Italy) for their proposed new currency. We investigate the importance of the US dollar compared to the Euro by focusing on aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) shock symmetry across these countries. We differentiated between oil and non-oil sector by estimating structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models with a combination of variables: oil output, non-oil output, total output, nominal/real price of oil and overall price level. One set of models was identified with the long-run restrictions of Blanchard and Quah (Am Econ Rev 79(4):655–673, 1989), whereas the set that assesses the robustness of the findings was estimated with the short-run restrictions of Sims (Eur Econ Rev 36(5):975–1000, 1992). We find overwhelming support for AD shock symmetry across the GCC countries and between the GCC and the US, but none for the major European countries with the GCC. Non-oil AS shocks are mostly asymmetric, but oil AS shocks are mostly symmetric when the real price of oil is included. This agrees with the view that GCC countries are subjected to common oil shocks. It also suggests that previous VAR models estimated to pass judgment on the feasibility of monetary union across GCC countries may have suffered from problems of mis-specification if the real price of oil was not considered. We surmise that the US dollar is a better anchor candidate for anchoring the new GCC currency than the Euro, since US monetary policy can at least help smooth demand shocks in these countries.     

开放经济条件下我国货币需求研究

文章引入股票流通市值、汇率等变量对开放经济条件下我国货币需求函数进行全面研究。协整和误差修正模型结果表明：汇率是除社会消费品零售总额外影响我国长短期货币需求稳定的最重要的变量,并且对我国货币需求的影响很大;股票市场发展对我国长期和短期货币需求的影响很小。这一发现可为我国当前反通货膨胀的货币政策的制订提供重要的参考。为控制货币供应量,我们应该重点关注汇率波动。     

The link between unemployment and labor force participation rates in Japan: A regional perspective

This paper explores the co-integrating relationship between unemployment and the labor force participation rate in Japan from a regional perspective. The univariate co-integration tests indicate that the “no co-integration” hypothesis cannot be rejected in Northern-Kanto, Hokuriku and Kyusyu. Because the univariate co-integration approach might suffer from low power we employed a panel version of the co-integration test recently developed by Westerlund (2006) that also considers the possibility of multiple structural breaks in the level of individual co-integrating equations. The test results lend support for an overwhelmingly long-run relationship between the two variables across regions. Accordingly, this finding is not in line with the unemployment invariance hypothesis. As a result a nationally orientated employment policy aimed at improving the unemployment and labor force participation rates might be preferred over a region-specific employment policy in Japan.     

电力生产、利用效率与体制改革影响

自国务院批准《电力体制改革方案》、成立中国电力监管委员会以来,我国电力市场开始由垄断走向竞争。采用Chow预测检验和递归最小二乘法中的一步预测检验对我国电力消费与经济增长长期协整关系中的结构性变化进行研究,进而对电力体制改革对宏观经济运行的影响进行分析发现:2002年是我国电力消费与经济增长长期关系出现结构性变化的关键年份,电力体制改革对提高电力生产和利用效率起到了积极的推动作用。     

住房贷款与房地产价格关系的实证研究——来自深圳的证据

本文围绕住房贷款与住房价格的关系展开研究,将住房贷款与住房价格视为内生变量,将购买住房成本、二手住房价格、住房供求缺口、收入住房价格比视为外生变量,采用深圳市2006年1月至2008年5月的月度数据估计了包括2个内生变量、4个外生变量的VECM模型。实证结果表明：深圳住房贷款与住房价格之间存在长期均衡关系,中央银行信贷数量调控效果要优于利率价格调控效果,银行业住房信贷政策整体上讲是稳健的,基于此并针对有关结论提出了政策建议。     

金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响——基于中部六省2000-2011年面板数据的实证分析

为了研究金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响,论文采用了以城乡居民人口比重加权的基尼系数,以金融发展规模、金融发展效率作为衡量金融发展的指标,选取了合理的控制变量,基于中部六省2000-2011年的面板数据,借鉴并扩展了Clark,Xu和Zou的模型进行回归分析。实证结果表明,城乡收入差距与金融发展规模、金融发展效率存在协整关系;金融发展规模显著缩小了城乡收入差距,金融发展效率显著扩大了城乡收入差距,且前者的影响弱于后者,金融发展总体上对城乡收入差距的扩大具有显著的正向影响。第一、第二产业、城镇化都显著缩小了城乡收入差距,人力资本和农林水事务支出的影响不显著。城乡收入差距自身具有较强的、显著的、滞后效应。最后本文给出了相应的政策建议。     

An aggregate import demand function for greece

This study estimates the aggregate import demand function for Greece using annual data for the period 1951–92. There are two methodological novelties in this paper. The authors find that the variables used in the aggregate import demand function are not stationary but are cointegrated. Thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables during the period under study. The price elasticity is found to be close to unity in the long run. The cross-price elasticity is also found to be close to unity. Import demand is found to be highly income elastic in the long run. This implies that with economic growth, ceteris paribus, the trade deficit for Greece is likely to get worse.     

Public expenditure and revenue in China,1990-2009

This study examines the long-ran equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and government revenue in China from 1990 to2009, using co-integration techniques. Meanwhile, it examines the direction of causality relationship between the variables through Granger causalitytest. Empirical findings show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between govenunent exponditure and revenue. Granger causality test indi-cate there is no hi-directional causal relationship between the two variables.