次贷危机下对我国商业银行房贷业务的思考

2007年美国次贷危机的爆发使美国金融界受到了一次极大的震荡,甚至可以说是行业“洗牌”,许多银行和投资银行都受到影响。我国商业银行在房贷业务上也有同美国住宅抵押贷款业务同样的风险,如信用风险突出、放贷机构低估住房抵押贷款风险等。因此,我们应吸取此次危机的教训,金融机构应增强审慎经营管理的意识,加强风险管理,加快住房抵押贷款证券化进程。     

中国银证混业经营模式探析——基于网络合作理论的视角

金融机构间的结盟、合资、相互投资与合并经营等,其实就是基于网络合作理论下的金融机构混业经营。因此,中国商业银行应根据自身条件采取相应网络合作模式来实现其混业经营,才能收到预期的良好效果。     

Did foreign banks stay committed to emerging Europe during recent financial crises?

Our objective is to investigate empirically the behavior of foreign banks with respect to real loan growth during periods of financial crisis for a set of countries in which foreign banks dominate the banking sectors due primarily to having taken over large existing former state-owned banks. The eight countries are among the most developed in emerging Europe, their banking sectors having been modernized by the middle of the last decade. We consider a data period that includes an initial credit boom (2005 – 2007) followed by the global financial crisis (2008 & 2009) and the onset of the Eurozone crisis (2010). Our two innovations with respect to the existing literature on banking during the financial crisis are to separate foreign banks into two categories, namely, subsidiaries of the Big 6 European multinational banks (MNBs) and all other foreign-controlled banks, and to take account of the impact of exchange rates during the period. Our results show that bank lending was impacted adversely by both crises but that the two types of foreign banks behaved differently. The Big 6 banks remained committed to the region in that their lending behavior was not different from that of domestic banks supporting the notion that these countries are treated as a “second home market” by these European MNBs. Contrariwise, the other foreign banks active in the region were involved in fueling the credit boom but then decreased their lending aggressively during the crisis periods. Our results also indicate that bank behavior in countries having flexible exchange rate regimes differs from that in those in (or effectively in) the Eurozone. Our results suggest that both innovations matter for studying bank behavior during crisis periods in the region and, by extension, to other small countries in which banking sectors are dominated by foreign financial institutions having different business models.     

Natural or unnatural selection? The end of lending relationships for small businesses

We investigate the situation where small business borrowers and banks end their lending relationships. If credit allocation is efficient, banks terminate their relationships with risky borrowers. Alternatively, small business borrowers are more likely to end their relationships when they have poor investment opportunities and do not require borrowed funds. However, if the soft budget constraints of banks or credit crunches are a significant problem, banks are likely to continue their relationships with risky firms or end their relationships with nonrisky firms, which is representative of an unnatural credit allocation. Using Japanese firm-level data, we show empirically that these relationships end naturally, with natural credit allocation supported even during the recent global financial crisis.     

The Impact of SFAS No. 157 on Commercial Banks

During 2008, U. S. banks were mired in a credit crisis. According to a group of economists and bankers, one cause of the 2008 credit crisis was an accounting rule termed mark-to-market. This rule required banks to write down large portions of their investment portfolios. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the mark-to-market model on a sample of banks for the first three quarters of the year 2008. Results indicated that while banks grew by 20% over time, the percentage of assets measured at fair value rose only slightly. Additionally, the results indicated that applying the mark-to-market rule did not reduce the regulatory capital position of banks.     

Evaluating sovereign risk spillovers on domestic banks during the European debt crisis

Using a Markov-switching model with time-varying probabilities, spillovers from sovereign to domestic bank CDS spreads during the European debt crisis for a set of 14 European countries and 30 European banks are investigated. Our model is able to capture how the increased sovereign risk observed between 2010 and 2013 throughout Europe has impacted i) the probability that banks fall into a crisis regime and ii) the probability that banks stay in the crisis regime. The latter state is characterized by a high volatility and large positive returns of CDS spreads. Different regime-dependent indicators have been computed to assess heterogeneity within the region. The evidence indicates that the intensification of sovereign risk observed during the European debt crisis has positively and significantly driven the regime shifts in volatility of the bank CDS spreads due to increased risk aversion. The results show that the increase in sovereign credit risk seems to have generated second-round effects for some banks that have experienced a deterioration in their funding conditions due to a rise in the domestic sovereign default risk. Overall, our results suggest that sovereign CDS spreads can be considered good forewarning indicators for predicting the evolution of bank CDS spreads. We also find that the effects differ depending on the country and the financial institution. This result suggests that banks are heterogeneously exposed to sovereign credit risk within the same country. One argument relates to the size of these financial institutions and the domestic exposure to sovereign debt.     

Explaining foreign bank entrance in emerging markets

This paper provides a theoretical framework that can explain the empirical observation that foreign banks from industrialized countries tend to increase their involvement in emerging markets in periods of market instability. In this model, domestic banks have (through past lending operations) more soft information on their borrowers available compared to foreign banks. Foreign banks, however, have a superior screening technology that allows them to obtain more hard information about their borrowers’ investment projects. The model has an important implication: Foreign banks increase their market share when credit market conditions deteriorate. The rationale for this finding is that the comparative advantage of the domestic bank loses value in unstable credit market conditions. Thus, the advantage of having a screening technology becomes more important and allows the foreign bank to increase market share. In times of crisis hard information on projects is relatively more important than soft information on the borrower’s history.     

CUSTOMER‐OWNED BANKING IN AUSTRALIA: FROM CREDIT UNION TO MUTUAL BANK

Since the 1990s financial sector regulation in Australia has treated credit unions and building societies the same as banks under the designated title of authorized depository institutions. This allows credit unions to choose between different organizational structures: cooperative; convert to customer‐owned banks or to demutualize. This article utilizes semi‐structured interviews to analyse the key motivations for organizational change. It examines a number of credit unions and their conversion experience to customer‐owned banks. It finds that adaptation of the credit union model was necessary to change customer perceptions, ensure future growth in the customer base and assets, and facilitate access to capital raisings with the credit rating of a bank. Despite this change customer‐owned banks retain the core principals of mutuality.     

Bank structure, capital accumulation and growth: a simple macroeconomic model

Summary. This paper analyzes the equilibrium growth paths of two economies that are identical in all respects, except for the organization of their financial systems: in particular, one has a competitive banking system and the other has a monopolistic banking system. In addition, the sources of inefficiencies, as a result of monopoly banking, and their relationship to the existence of credit rationing are explored. Monopoly in banking tends to depress the equilibrium law of motion for the capital stock for either of two reasons. When credit rationing exists, monopoly banks ration credit more heavily than competitive banks. When credit is not rationed, the existence of monopoly banking leads to excessive monitoring of credit financed investment. Both of these have adverse consequences for capital accumulation. In addition, monopoly banking is more likely to lead to credit rationing than is competitive banking. Finally, the scope for development trap phenomena to arise is considered under both a competitive and a monopolistic banking system. Received: September 20, 1999; revised version: December 3, 1999     

The governance structures of Japanese credit associations and their objective functions

Although Japanese credit associations are non-profit cooperative financial institutions, they assume the same financial functions as regional banks that are stock companies and they could compete with each other in a regional market. On the other hand, the governance structures of credit associations tend to exhibit weaker discipline than those of regional banks, and, for this reason, the financial performances of credit associations and regional banks might differ. In this article, we empirically investigated whether the objective functions of credit associations are different from those of regional banks considering their different governance structures. As a result, although significant differences of profitability of these two types of institutions were not detected, it was demonstrated that credit associations can capture a greater share of deposits than regional banks and the former are more conservative in risk taking than the latter. From these, there is a possibility that Japanese credit associations have different objective functions from regional banks.     

信用评级机构在次级债危机形成中的角色解析

由于现代金融体系的全球化,这场涉及美国众多金融机构的次级债危机很快在全球蔓延开来,逐步演变成了一场全球信用危机,而一贯被人们寄予厚望的信用评级机构在这场愈演愈烈的危机中却备受指责.论文重新审视了芙国信用评级机构运营机制的固有缺陷,通过揭示信用评级机构对次级债危机形成的责任,提出我国要以次级债危机为鉴,通过规范信用评级行业的发展,使信用评级机构真正承担金融风险监督者的责任.     

卖方垄断市场中不同担保模式对企业融资的影响 --基于信息经济学的模型分析

在利率管制下的卖方垄断型信贷市场中,担保额是银行甄别企业风险的有效工具,但这依赖于企业的风险收益特征。第三方担保可以帮助禀赋不足的企业融资。由于不同担保机构对企业信息了解程度不同,文章通过模型证明,在对会内企业担保时,互助担保比政府担保具有优势。互助担保不会引起利益的重新分配。因为存在市场分割,政府担保是不可或缺的。政府担保会引起风险转嫁,导致收益在企业内部、银行与企业之间重新分配。     

主权信用评级与金融安全

本文分析了金融开放条件下主权信用评级波动对金融市场安全的影响和传递机制,探讨了主权信用评级、国际投资银行以及投资者预期等因素在国际金融危机中扮演的角色,并从加强对外资机构在华信用评级业务范围和评级流程的监督管理、推进中国信用评级机构国际化建设、理顺评级过程中所涉各方利益、探索投资者的法律保障等5个方面,就促进中国主权信用评级公正和稳定提出建议。     

SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENTS AMONG SAVINGS BANKS AND CREDIT UNIONS: EMPIRICAL FINDINGS IN THE SPANISH CONTEXT

ABSTRACT ** :  This article examines the socially responsible offer of savings banks and credit unions in Spain. In particular, it has been analysed their perceived commitment with socially responsible investments, their product portfolio, their marketing strategy, and their reported forecasts of future growth. The findings lead us to conclude that a socially responsible market in Spain is at an introductory stage among credit unions, and at a growth stage among savings banks. The paper outlines managerial implications for marketing managers so as to reap the potential benefits derived from this approach to investment.     

金融危机、货币政策与信贷供给*——基于公司层面银行信贷数据的经验研究

不同的银行特征会对金融危机和货币政策传导的银行信贷渠道产生异质性影响。本文运用2001-2015年公司层面银行信贷数据实证检验了我国货币政策传导的银行信贷渠道,随后进一步研究金融危机对不同特征银行信贷供给的影响差异。经验研究发现：我国货币政策银行信贷渠道主要通过非国有控股银行传导,并引起不同资产负债表特征银行信贷供给的异质性反应。银行规模越大、流动性越强、资本充足率越高,银行信贷供给对货币政策越不敏感。金融危机期间,银行信贷渠道的传导效率显著降低,高资本充足水平的银行和国有控股银行受金融危机的冲击较小,并且宽松的货币政策对国有控股银行信贷供给调控的效率更高。     

Firm credit risk in normal times and during the crisis: are banks less risky?

Bank solvency was a major issue during the financial crisis of 2007–2009, but bank credit default swap (CDS) spreads were almost always below nonbank CDS spreads. What is the reason for this gap? Are banks perceived to be less risky? This study empirically decomposes CDS premia for 45 major banks and 167 large industrial firms from Europe and the US. It turns out that expected losses are usually somewhat lower for banks than for nonbanks, but expected losses contribute relatively little to the observed CDS premia. CDS spreads for banks and nonbanks differ mainly because market participants require a lower compensation for bearing bank credit risk. The quite persistent difference in the credit risk premia for banks and nonbanks disappears only temporarily during the crisis.     

Credit in Times of Stress: Lessons from Latin America during the Global Financial Crisis

The 2008–2009 global financial crisis disrupted the provision of credit in Latin America less than in previous crises. This paper tests whether specific characteristics at both the bank and country levels at the onset of the global crisis contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in this region during the crisis. As shown, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity, and bank efficiency in the pre‐crisis period, played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks that had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit the most. Among country‐specific characteristics, we found evidence that balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short‐term debt) were key variables in explaining credit growth resilience.     

战略引资和网点规模对银行信贷竞争的影响

以网点规模表征银行规模,从网点吸收存款以支撑贷款业务的角度构建有信贷资金约束的贷款竞争模型,研究外资银行入股对引资银行以及本地信贷竞争的影响。结果表明:只要外资银行改善引资银行的技术水平,贷款市场竞争就会加剧;大银行的市场份额较多,贷款市场竞争加剧对其利润的负面影响较大,大银行为避免这种影响不会过度参与竞争。最后指出,决策层应制定政策以引导优质外资银行入股本地小银行以促进贷款竞争。     

新型农村金融机构改革可行吗?——基于监督效率视角的分析

本文基于监督机制建立了借款人融资条件决定的道德风险模型,比较分析了各类新型农村金融机构的监督效率及其对农村融资状况的影响。结果表明:现有商业银行缺乏明显的监督比较优势,由其组建的村镇银行和贷款公司将难以长期持续经营;小额贷款公司因需要全部自有资本运营,对民营资本监督效率提出了过高要求而难以在农村地区普遍设立;资金互助社从农户生产经营中内生出来能有效实施相互监督和合同互联,与专业合作社或龙头公司联合发展时可显著改善农村融资状况。当前以商业银行为主导的农村金融增量改革,体现了政府隐性存款担保下国家对于民营资本金融风险的过度防范,以及商业银行为了经营特许权价值作出短期选择的双重契合。进一步的改革需要逐步从国家外生主导模式向民间内生成长模式转变,充分发挥民营资本和各类新型农村经济组织的作用。     

Credit booms and busts in emerging markets

We investigate to what extent corporate governance and risk management mitigate the involvement of banks in credit boom and bust cycles. We study a unique, hand‐collected dataset covering 156 banks from Central and Eastern Europe during 2005–2012. We document that stronger risk management is associated with more moderate pre‐crisis credit growth but not with fewer credit losses in the crisis. With respect to bank governance, we find that a higher share of foreign members on the supervisory board is associated with less rapid credit growth in the pre‐crisis period and a lower level of credit losses during the crisis period.