美国当前宏观经济运行的三大特征

一、美国当前主要宏观经济指标 1．实际GDP连续4年保持增长。到2005年的第4季度，美国经济已经历了17个季度的持续增长。2001年11月美国经济结束了3月以来的衰退，出现了正增长。到2005年第4季度，美国实际GDP比2001年第3季度增加了14％。2005年，美国实际GDP比2004年增长了3．5％，GDP的规模达到了12．735万亿美元。根据美国商务部的统计，2001年至2005年，美国实际GDP增长分别为0．8％、1．6％、2．7％、4．2％和3．5％。     

我国经济运行初步稳定在7％-8％区闻

今年3季度我国GDP增长率为7．8％,较2季度回升0．3个百分点。从2012年2季度开始,我国经济增长率已经连续6个季度保持在7％-8％区间,预计4季度仍将保持在这一区间,因此到今年底,经济增长保持在这一区间的时间将达到7个季度（见表1）。     

国际

11月7日,美国商务部公布第三季度经济数据,国内生产总值按年利率计算增长2.8％,增幅高于前一个季度的2.5％,这是美国经济连续第10个季度保持增长。本季度,以美元计算的国内生产总值（GDP）环比增长4．8％,达到168576亿美元。商务部分析个人消费、私人库存、出口和固定资产投资增长是支撑第三季度美国经济增长的主要因素。     

看数字 话措施 鼓信心

美国次贷危机和世界金融危机对中国经济的影响，主要体现在它影响了中国的出口，我们现在面临的很大问题是出口受阻。我参加了2008年3月的春季广交会，美国参会客商同比下降了15．5％。2008年上半年中国对美国出口增长只有8．9％，多年来这一数字始终保持在20％上下，这是第一次回落到10％以下。2008年1～9月份，中国的出口虽然保持增长，但增长幅度下降了4．8个百分点。     

经济并未总体过热宏观调控仍须“点刹”——兼谈本轮周期的“二次调控”思路

在连续4年持续繁荣基础上，国民经济今年以来依然保持快速增长势头。一季度，GDP增长10．3％，为近几年比较快的季度增速。即使今年后3个季度比一季度略有减速，全年GDP增长也有可能达到或接近10％的水平，实现连续5年10％左右的高速增长。从单项指标看，今年头4个月，城镇固定资产投资同比增长29．6％，增幅比上年同期高3．9个百分点；工业增加值增长16＋7％，比去年全年加速0．3个百分点。社会消费品零售额一季度增长12．8％，4月份上升到13．6％。出口总额前4个月累计增长25．8％，比2003年的34．6％、2004年的35．4％和去年的28．4％明显减速；进口总额增长22．1％，比去年同期的17．6％加速4．1个百分点。     

走向俄罗斯 中国企业缺什么？

2002年中俄贸易额达到了119．3亿美元，同比增长11．8％，标志着中俄贸易又上了一个新“台阶”。中国对俄出口首次达到35．21亿美元，同比增长29.9％，突破了中国对俄出口的“上限”-27．1亿美元。而且，在贸易规模扩大的条件下．逆差有所减少，由2001年的52．48亿美元降到了2002年的48.86亿美元．下降了6．1％。中俄贸易总体上有“起色”。     

中国如何应对经济减速?

与全球经济类似,近来中国经济也出现增速持续减缓走势.受四万亿超常刺激措施作用,中国GDP同比增长率2010年1季度达到11.9％峰值,此后总体上呈现回调趋势.2010年4季度GDP增速从3季度9.6％回升到9.8％,此后7个季度持续下降.2012年前3个季度经济增速持续走低,分别为8.1％,7.6％和7.4％. 中国经济为何减速? 外部经济环境影响无疑是重要原因.主要发达经济体作为中国主要贸易伙伴,其经济减速会抑制中国出口需求.虽然中国企业在开拓出口市场多元化方面多方努力并取得成效,外部经济减速仍会通过外需环节拖累中国经济增长.不过分析大国经济表现特点,更应从内在因素方面分析根源.从国内看中国经济增速减缓至少有三个层面背景根源.     

实际利用外资增长逐月下调

2003年全年我国实际利用外资增长基本呈直线下滑趋势，其中一季度我国实际利用外资130．9亿美元，同比增长56．7％．属高增长期；随后由于SARS的影响，上半年实际利用外资金额为302．6亿美元，同比增长34．3％，增幅比1季度下降22个百分点，但仍为较高增长。而下半年却急转之下，实际利用外资规模大幅下滑，7～10月的四个月实际利用外资累计增长分别为26．6％、18．4％、11．8％和5．8％，l～11月实际使用外资金额471．54亿美元，同比增长继续下降，仅为0．20％，比2002年同期降幅达14．4个百分点，增幅逐月下降趋势令人担忧。若以单月计算，更创下连续4个单月出现负增长的记录。7～10月各单月实际利用外资与2002年同期相比增幅均为负值。分别是-18．8％、-28．3％，-28．8％和-36％，降幅之大是近年来所没有的。     

美国利率下调及我国经济对策选择

美国经济自2001年3月份起步入衰退，美联储十次下调利率以制止经济的持续下跌，其他国家也纷纷采取降息的措施，刺激本国经济的增长，我国人民币面临着值的巨大压力，而且2001年以来我国外贸出口幅大幅减缓，在这情情况下，我国也应相应调整利率，保持经济的内外均衡，实现我国经济的良性发展。     

“地王救主”再度上演？

今年上半年GDP累计增速降至7．6％，是三年来最低水平。这次下降成为自1992年市场经济体制确立以来，中国经济第四次出现经济增速连续两个季度低于8％的局面。前三次分别出现在亚洲金融危机、网络泡沫破裂和2008年美国次贷危机期间。     

Convergence in Interest Rates and Inflation Rates Across Countries and Over Time

We examine the relationship between interest rates and inflation rates for 10 countries during the period 1974–95. We find evidence of a unique cointegrating relationship between nominal interest rates of European Monetary System (EMS) countries, the US and Canada, and the US, Germany, and Japan. No similar relationship is obtained between inflation rates with one exception, namely, that between the US and Canada. We interpret these results as convergence in inflation but not in interst rates. Hence, if interest rates represent an indicator of monetary policy, the countries considered have attempted to implement independent policies but not to an extent which produced divergent trends in inflation.     

Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium

Under mild assumptions, the data indicate that fluctuations in nominal interest rate differentials across currencies are primarily fluctuations in time-varying risk. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. If most fluctuations in interest differentials are thought to be driven by monetary policy, then the data call for a theory which explains how changes in monetary policy change risk. Here, we propose such a theory based on a general equilibrium monetary model with an endogenous source of risk variation—a variable degree of asset market segmentation.     

A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper defines the concepts of indirect and direct risk premium effects and analyzes their properties in an exchange rate model. In the model, these effects are endogenously determined in a rational expectations equilibrium. For the effect of an interest rate shock, they have the opposite signs and the indirect risk premium effect can dominate the direct risk premium effect under reasonable parameters. This means that domestic short‐term bonds and foreign bonds are complements in the model even though domestic long‐term bonds and foreign bonds are substitutes. This model, focusing on the indirect risk premium effect and on the term structure of interest rates, can be combined with a small sample bias approach to explain stylized facts about the forward premium anomaly, which is found for short‐term interest rates, but not for long‐term interest rates.     

Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs

We study the labor market effects of realignment in fixed bilateral exchange rates, such as China's peg to the US dollar. We employ the open economy model by de Melo and Robinson to identify the core parameters of the real, trade side of the economy driving the unemployment effects of bilateral exchange rate realignment. A small open economy version of the model is explored analytically and a large multicountry version numerically. Analytics in the small open economy model show that unemployment effects of adjusting of a bilateral peg hinge on the fraction exported to and imported from the trading partner. A larger fraction exported to and a smaller fraction imported from the trading partner make it more likely that revaluation of a trading partner's currency has beneficial effects. Numerics in the large economy model show that Chinese revaluation can generate both positive and negative unemployment effects depending upon underlying parameter values. Adverse unemployment effects can go along with an improving trade balance.     

Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates

This paper examines the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate and fiscal deficits in a continuous time optimizing general equilibrium model with OLG. It is shown that alternative financing modes of budget deficits imply different patterns of adjustment along the transitional path towards the steady-state equilibrium. In particular, the respect of public solvency without money financing is not sufficient to avoid the depreciation of the exchange rate in the long-run after a fiscal expansion. In addition, money and tax financing generate opposite intergenerational reallocation of wealth.     

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy

This paper looks at the relation between exchange rates and monetary policy. It focuses in particular on the role of the exchange rate of the euro in the context of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. The objective of monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The euro area is a large and relatively closed economy. Therefore, the exchange rate of the euro is not an intermediate target nor is it an objective. Nevertheless, the ECB's stability–oriented monetary policy strategy does not neglect the exchange rate of the euro. Clearly, exchange rate developments are taken into account both when looking at the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and when assessing the current economic situation and prospects for the euro area.     

Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

The paper documents a robust and interesting relationship between the real domestic price of oil and real effective exchange rates for Germany, Japan and the United States. It also offers an explanation of why the real oil price captures exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and why such shocks could be the most important factor determining real exchange rates in the long run.