Electoral competition under imperfect information

Summary. This paper considers electoral competition between two office-motivated parties and one voter, in the presence of two alternative policies and under imperfect information. The theory of refinements of Nash equilibrium predicts the outcome of this three-player game: both parties faithfully use their information and try to find the best policy for the voter. We discuss the meaning of this model for Politics and prove that the same result holds for any number of voters, provided that parties are expected plurality maximizers and that voters satisfy a version of the sincere voting assumption adapted to this strategic setting.Received: 12 December 2001, Revised: 16 June 2003JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D72, D82.Correspondence to: Jean-François LaslierThanks to Gabrielle Demange, Françoise Forges, Roger Guesnerie, Jean-Fran çois Mertens, Thomas Palfrey, Sylvain Sorin and other participants in workshops and conferences in Caen, Paris, Caltech and Yale. Thanks also to two anonymous referees and to Paul Heidues and Johan Lagerlöf for their comments. This work was originated when K. Van der Straeten was at THEMA (Université de Cergy-Pontoise) and DELTA.     

Price normalization under imperfect competition

In general equilibrium models of imperfect competition the equilibria depend on how prices are normalized. This note shows that a price normalization preserves convexity properties if and only if prices are measured in terms of a fixed commodity bundle. I am grateful to an anonymous referee for helpful comments, inspiring a simplification in the proof of the main result, and the argument in the Remark.     

Standards vs. labels with imperfect competition and asymmetric information

I demonstrate that providing information about product quality is not necessarily the best way to address asymmetric information problems when markets are imperfectly competitive. In a vertical differentiation model I show that a Minimum Quality Standard, which retains asymmetric information, generates more welfare than a label, which provides full information.     

Ricardian equivalence under imperfect information

In the US, aggregate private consumption changes are excessively sensitive not only to current and lagged changes in income, but also to current and lagged changes in government expenditures. I give a new theoretical interpretation to this observation. I show that this excess sensitivity arises when consumers take into account the link between taxes and government expenditures (i.e. when they are Ricardian), but lack exact information on the aggregate economy. While the model provides a simultaneous explanation for both types of excess sensitivity, the strong restrictions that it imposes on the data are not supported by the results of econometric estimation.     

Maximizing votes under imperfect information

This paper presents an alternative, sympathy voting, to the usual public choice approaches. It deals with voters whose decision depends both on an economic component and a sympathy component. The politician is perfectly informed of the economic component, but not of the sympathy component. The paper compares vote maximization under sympathy voting to the maximization of votes which come from pure homines oeconomici. Sympathy voting is defined in such a way that pure economic voting is its limiting case. The latter property can be used to apply the classical Lagrangean technique to maximizing votes under economic voting. The approach is applied to two typical examples of political choice: the property tax/local public expenditure decision, and public pricing of local public utilities.     

Indeterminacy of intertemporal equilibria under imperfect competition

Summary. It is known that overlapping generations models with imperfectly competitive firms may exhibit a continuum of stationary equilibria. The reason of this indeterminacy is that different price expectation functions of consumers lead to different objective demand functions against which firms maximize. All these expectation functions fulfill perfect foresight in the equilibrium, but they can be arbitrary off the equilibrium. In this paper it is shown that it is not this arbitrariness which is responsible for the indeterminacy, but that the continuum of stationary equilibria emerges even if expectation functions are rational. Received: March 25, 1999; revised version: February 16, 2000     

Trade taxes and subsidies with imperfect competition

Traditional results in the theory of international trade suggest that a country large enough to influence world prices can raise its national income by levying a tariff. In a partial equilibrium model Brander and Spencer (1984) suggest that a country facing a monopolistic supplier of importables may find it optimal to subsidize this activity rather that tax it. This result is reconsidered in a general equilibrium framework. It is, in general, correct; but specific and ad valorem forms of taxation may yield different results.     

Environmental risk and welfare valuation under imperfect information

Consumers are often uninformed, or unsure, about the ambient level of environmental risk. An optimal policy must jointly determine efficient levels of self-protection, information provision, and public risk mitigation efforts. Unfortunately, conventional welfare measures are not amenable to welfare analysis in the presence of imperfect information. We develop a theoretical welfare measure, called quasi-compensating variation, that is a natural extension of compensating variation (CV). We show that this welfare measure offers not only a money metric of the “value of information,” but also a means to appropriately evaluate the welfare effects of various policies when consumers are imperfectly informed about ambient risk. This welfare measure allows us to obtain a number of results that the traditional CV measure fails to offer. In particular, we show that the consumer’s willingness to pay for a (small) environmental risk reduction is higher for those who underestimate ambient risk than for those who overestimate or are perfectly informed if the marginal return to self-protection increases with ambient risk.     

Public capital and imperfect competition

In this paper we consider a macroeconomic model in which public capital is a productive input and there is monopolistic competition in the product market. We analyze the effects of a permanent variation in public capital investment both in the short and in the long run. Finally, we show that the optimal provision of public capital under imperfect competition is higher than that associated with the first-best policy.     

Learning with perfect information

For extensive form games with perfect information, consider a learning process in which, at any iteration, each player unilaterally deviates to a best response to his current conjectures of others' strategies; and then updates his conjectures in accordance with the induced play of the game. We show that, for generic payoffs, the outcome of the game becomes stationary, and is consistent with Nash equilibrium. In general, if payoffs have ties or if players observe more of each others' strategies than is revealed by plays of the game, the same result holds provided a rationality constraint is imposed on unilateral deviations: no player changes his moves in subgames that he deems unreachable, unless he stands to improve his payoff there. Moreover, with this constraint, the sequence of strategies and conjectures also becomes stationary, and yields a self-confirming equilibrium.     

The objective of a privately owned firm under imperfect competition

This paper proposes a model of imperfect competition among privately owned firms that act in the best interest of their shareholders. The existence of a solution for the model is proved under weaker conditions than the ones generally used in the literature. In particular, the results did not require the existence of a continuous equilibrium price selection or concavity assumptions on the profit function.      

Bilateral monopoly with imperfect information

The problem at stake in this paper is the determination of the price and the quantity transacted in a bilateral monopoly with imperfect information. A simple characterization of incentive compatible contracts is given that significantly generalizes a previous one, due to Green and Honkapohja. This allows an easy study of two interesting families of such contracts and their institutional counterpart: namely, cost-plus contracts and contracts with quantity rationing.     

Exchange rates and perfect competition

The purpose of this note is to demonstrate that the commonly held belief that incomplete and perverse pass-through are incompatible with perfect competition is wrong! To this end, we consider two types of firms both operating in two countries. The demand sides of the markets of the two countries are separated and each type of firm produces its good in one of these countries. We study the effect of an exchange-rate change on the competitive equilibrium prices in each country. When producing for the foreign market causes the same costs as producing for the home market then the law of one price holds and an exchange-rate change is completely offset by price changes. Furthermore, when cost functions neither exhibit economies nor diseconomies of scope between producing for the home and producing for the foreign market then prices move in the right directions in response to an exchange-rate change. However, with general cost structures, even in this simple perfectly competitive model, perverse directions of price changes can result from an exchange-rate change.     

Tax principles and tax harmonization under imperfect competition: A cautionary example

This paper shows that under imperfect competition, the welfare effects of indirect tax harmonization may depend crucially on whether taxes are levied by the destination or the origin principle. In a standard model of imperfect competition, while harmonization always makes at least one country better off, and may be Pareto-improving, when taxes are levied under the destination principle (which currently applies in the European Union), harmonization of origin-based taxes (as recently proposed by the European Commission) is certain to be Pareto-worsening when the preferences in the two countries are identical, and is likely to be so even when they differ.     

Effects of horizontal consolidation under bilateral imperfect competition between processors and retailers

This article considers bilateral imperfect competition between processors and retailers to estimate the trade off between market power and cost efficiency. The model is based on pricing rules from a firm's profit maximization and nests both oligopoly and oligopsony models. An empirical analysis for US beef processors and retailers suggests that processors tend to exercise oligopsony market power in procuring cattle, but they are unlikely to exercise market power on retailers. When retailers and processors are considered as one integrated sector, efficiency effects from the increased concentration in the US beef packing industry are slightly larger than market power effects. When processors’ market power is considered separately from retailers’ market power, the difference between cost saving and market power effects becomes greater. The cost elasticity estimate, 0.99, indicates that a further merger would result in little economies of scale in the future. Therefore, although we find that efficiency effects are currently larger than market power effects, a further increase in concentration in the US beef processing industry could narrow the gap between the two effects.     

Subsidy competition and imperfect labor markets

This study presents a two‐country model of subsidy competition for manufacturing firms under labor market imperfections. Because subsidies affect the distribution of firms, subsidies influence unemployment rates and welfare in both countries. We show that when labor market frictions are high, subsidy competition is beneficial, although subsidies under subsidy competition are inefficiently high. In the coordinated equilibrium, the supranational authority provides a subsidy to firms that equal the expected total search costs, which increases the number of firms relative to laissez‐faire and improves welfare relative to laissez‐faire and subsidy competition. Finally, we find that a rise in a country's labor market frictions raises the equilibrium subsidy rate, affects unemployment rates, and lowers welfare.     

Firms' market behavior under imperfect information and economic natural selection

The economic natural selection argument claims superior survival performance for profit-maximizing firms. This assertion is investigated in a factorial simulation study assuming imperfect information. Three alternative models of firms' behavior are tested with respect to their ability to adapt to the observed realizations of non-stationary demand processes. Findings show that, in such a scenario, it is the difference in implicit learning and adaption capabilities rather than that in motivation or goals which affects survivability. Consequently, differential bankruptcy and disengagement rates vary with the peculiarities of the market environment. The tested assertion cannot generally be confirmed.     

On imperfect competition with occasionally binding cash-in-advance constraints

We provide a theoretical demonstration of the link between imperfect competition and the cash-in-advance constraint, not previously considered in the literature. In a general equilibrium framework, we show that imperfect competition affects the proportion of times that the cash-in-advance constraint binds. As the market becomes more competitive it is certainly no less likely that the cash-in-advance constraint will bind. Therefore, economic welfare changes not only because of the direct effect of the change in the distribution of aggregate consumption but also because of the indirect effect of the cash-in-advance constraint. Other implications are also demonstrated.     

Reputation and imperfect information

A common observation in the informal literature of economics (and elsewhere) is that is multistage “games,” players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being “tough” or “benevolent” or something else. But this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game-theoretic analyses of finite games, such as Selten's finitely repeated chain-store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners' dilemma. We reexamine Selten's model, adding to it a “small” amount of imperfect (or incomplete) information about players' payoffs, and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the “reputation effect” that one intuitively expects.