A Structural Model for Developing Countries' Manufactured Exports

A dynamic structural econometric model is developed to analyzemovements in manufactured exports and to capture lags in theadjustment to equilibrium. The model is estimated with pooledcross-section time-series data for a representative sample offifteen developing countries grouped according to their exportmarket power. The results suggest that prices, domestic productivecapacity, and external economic activity are critical determinantsof manufactured exports from developing countries. The structuralparameter estimates are used to infer the effects of changesin destination country income, distinguishing between the short-runand long-run export volume and export revenue effects. The resultsindicate that domestic economic policies that promote investmentand capacity in export-oriented activities are likely to playa key role in increasing foreign exchange earnings in developingcountries, even if growth in external demand is slow.     

“报复”、“安全阀”效应与发展中国家对外反倾销

笔者利用1980-2008年29个发展中国家对外反倾销的面板数据,发现报复和安全阀效应对发展中国家对外反倾销有明显影响。生存分析显示,关税消减程度较大的发展中国家会比关税消减程度较小的发展中国家更早提出反倾销;Logistic分析显示,遭受反倾销数增多和关税降低会使发展中国家对外反倾销的风险显著增加。     

发展中国家汇率制度选择的影响因素分析

任何汇率制度都不能适合所有的时期,也没有一种汇率制度可以适用于任何国家,发展中国家汇率制度的选择更是理论界讨论的热门话题。本文在回顾不同国际货币体系时期汇率制度选择理论的基础上,尝试探讨以36个发展中国家为样本,对汇率制度选择的影响因素进行分析。     

The Management of the Developing Countries' Debt: Guidelines and Applications to Brazil

Some principles which may be useful in formulating a debt managementstrategy are articulated. There are four major policy recommendations:(1) stretch out the repayment of the debt; (2) monitor bothexports and GDP; (3) ignore the capital loss of the creditors;and (4) watch the domestic deficit. The goal of the recommendationsis the maximization of the intertemporal welfare of the countryunder the constraint that it services its debt.     

国际贸易理论中要素价格均等化条件的扩展

要素价格均等化定理是国际贸易理论中的重要定理。由于有了这个定理从而简化了国际经济中的经济分析,因而讨论要素价格均等化的条件就成为国际贸易论中的一个重要课题。Deardorff(1994)提出了要素价格均等化的一个必要条件,但被证明了他的条件在一般情况下并不是要素价格均等化的充分条件。本文给出了保证要素价格均等化成立的一个充分条件。     

移民汇款、金融发展与收入不平等——基于114个发展中国家跨国面板数据的研究

利用1981年至2017年114个发展中国家非平衡面板数据,基于库兹涅茨曲线设定移民汇款影响收入不平等的计量经济学模型,从移民汇款与金融发展互补性角度就国际移民汇款对收入不平等的影响以及这一影响的异质性特征进行实证考察;并使用不同的计量经济学方法,附加控制变量与子样本进行进一步检验,证明本文实证结果有效可信。结果发现,只有通过金融中介作用移民汇款才会发挥其改善收入不平等的积极作用,即移民汇款对收入不平等的影响取决于收款国金融发展水平,证实了移民汇款与金融发展之间存在互补性关系。进一步的检验证实了结果的有效性和稳健性,但由于金融发展程度存在差异,移民汇款对收入不平等的影响在不同金融发展水平国家之间有所差异。在金融相对发达国家,移民汇款通过改善收入不平等提高了贫困人口收入水平。然而,在金融发展相对落后国家,移民汇款却加剧了收入不平等。异质性检验也表明,中高收入国家移民汇款通过制度的中介作用对收入不平等的作用大于中低收入国家。     

The Strange and Futile World of Trade Wars

U.S. President Donald Trump has a misguided, mercantilist view of international trade. He believes that an external (or “trade”) deficit is a “problem,” and that this deficit is caused by foreigners engaging in unfair trade practices. Accordingly, the president and his followers feel that the U.S. is being—and has long been—victimized by foreigners. The reality, however, is that the negative external balance in the U.S. is neither a “problem” nor is it attributable to foreigners engaging in nefarious activities. The U.S.'s negative external balance, which the country has registered every year since 1975, is “made in the USA.” External balances are always and everywhere homegrown; they are the reflection and the result of the relationship between domestic savings and domestic investment. And it is the gap between a country's savings and domestic investment that is the fundamental driver and determinant of its external balance. Specifically, the current account balance, or “trade deficit,” is the sum of the private savings‐investment gap and the public savings‐investment gap, or what is known as the “fiscal balance.” From 1972 until the end of 2018, for example, the cumulative private sector savings‐investment gap in the U.S. was a positive $12.8 trillion; that is, U.S. companies and individuals collectively saved—that is, earned and retained—some $12.8 trillion more than they consumed and invested domestically. But this positive balance was completely overshadowed by the cumulative negative government gap—or cumulative fiscal deficits—of $24.2 trillion during this 47‐year period. And thus the U.S. as a whole experienced a savings‐investment gap of negative $11.4 trillion that is entirely attributable to the country's fiscal deficits. What's more, the fact that the U.S. recorded a cumulative current account deficit of $11.5 trillion during this period confirms that the U.S. external deficits simply mirror what is happening in the U.S. domestic economy, just as the savings‐investment identity suggests. And, of course, the savings‐investment identity holds true for all countries, even those with significant external surpluses. Japan and China have both long experienced savings surpluses, and both have run current account surpluses that have mirrored their positive savings‐investment gaps. If the U.S. mercantilists understood what causes trade and current account deficits, they would direct their ire at profligate government spending rather than at foreigners. But they don't understand. And the leader of the mercantilists, President Trump, is flying blind and presiding over ever‐expanding fiscal deficits—which will only ensure that the current account deficits not just continue, but get bigger.     

China in the World Trade Organization: Antidumping and Safeguards

China finds itself in a unique situation on antidumping andsafeguard issues. It is by far the main target of antidumpingmeasures, but (so far) one of the smallest users of such measures.China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession protocol includesstringent antidumping and safeguard provisions that its tradingpartners may use against its exports. The article examines threerelated concerns: how quickly large developing economies canbecome intensive users of antidumping measures, an evolutionraising concerns about China's recent antidumping enforcement;how China could minimize its exposure to foreign antidumpingcases, a recipe for both improving trade outcomes and for China'staking a leading role in reforming WTO antidumping; and theopportunities that the Doha Round of trade negotiations offerto China for negotiating stricter disciplines both on WTO contingentprotection and on the use by China's trading partners of thespecial provisions included in China's accession protocol.     

西部开发:开创边贸易区引资新局面

<正> 自90年代初沿边全面开放、边境贸易蓬勃发展以来,我国边境地区逐步形成发展起来了边境贸易区。边境贸易区作为一种特殊关税区,经过多年的探索调整,进入到平稳运营、趋向规范管理的阶段。随着西部大开发战略的展开,边境贸易区进入扩大向西开放、引进外资的新阶段。 从边民互市扩展到全方位对外开放 1983年,国家正式发布边境小额贸易管理法规,规定边境城镇企业、居民之间进行的小额贸易在双方商定的边境口岸和贸易点进行。90年代初,原苏联解体,我国实行沿边开放、鼓励边贸的政策,边境贸易爆发性兴起。国家对边境贸易实行税收减半等优惠政策,边境地方政府采取灵活政策,边贸经营迅速扩大。经营者由边境地区企业和个体经营者扩     

Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

This article presents estimates of the impact of China's accessionto the World Trade Organization. China is estimated to be thebiggest beneficiary (US$31 billion a year from trade reformsin preparation for accession and additional gains of $10 billiona year from reforms after accession), followed by its majortrading partners that also undertake liberalization, includingthe economies in North America, Western Europe, and Taiwan (China).Accession will boost manufacturing sectors in China, especiallytextiles and apparel, which will benefit directly from the removalof export quotas. Developing economies competing with Chinain third markets may suffer small losses. Accession will haveimportant distributional consequences for China, with the wagesof skilled and unskilled nonfarm workers rising in real termsand relative to those of farm workers. Possible policy changes,including reductions in barriers to labor mobility and improvementsin rural education, could more than offset these negative impactsand facilitate the development of China's economy.     

Private Participation in Infrastructure and Financial Sector Development: Evidence from Developing Countries

This article studies whether private participation in infrastructure (PPI) investments promote financial sector development (FSD). With data from 62 developing countries over the period 1990–2013, we provide evidence of a positive and significant relationship between PPI investments and FSD, irrespective of different control variables, estimation methods and measures of FSD. With heterogeneity tests, we illustrate that the promotion effect is larger in emerging countries than in the other countries; however, the difference is marginal. We also identify that both civil and common legal origins have a comparative advantage than socialist legal origin for FSD.     

Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

Data from China's national rural and urban household surveysare used to measure and explain the welfare impacts of changesin goods and factor prices attributable to accession to theWorld Trade Organization. The price changes are estimated separatelyusing a general equilibrium model to capture both direct andindirect effects of the initial tariff changes. The welfareimpacts are first-order approximations based on a householdmodel incorporating own-production activities calibrated tohousehold-level data and imposing minimum aggregation. The resultsshow negligible impacts on inequality and poverty in the aggregate.However, diverse impacts emerge across household types and regions,associated with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and incomesources, with possible implications for compensatory policyresponses.     

世界金融结构变迁趋势及对中国的启示

世界金融结构变迁在经济全球化和金融自由化的大背景下呈现出业务多元化、机构大型化、市场多层次、工具多样化等特点。同时,金融结构变迁的效果和程度又取决于每一个国家自身经济发展水平、政治和社会体制的基本状况,他们之间应是内在呼应的。发达国家金融结构变迁是其相对成熟的市场经济体系发展带动的“诱致性变迁”,表现为在不同的经济金融发展背蒂下,金融结构做相应的自动调整;新兴市场经济国家金融结构的变迁具有超前模仿的特征;转轨经济国家的金融结构变迁是在政府主导下推进;而低收入落后的发展中国家的金融结构变迁则呈现缓慢前行的特点。     

Terms of Trade, Tariffs, and Labor Market Adjustment in Developing Countries

A three-goods model (importables, exportables, and nontradables)is used to analyze labor market adjustment to changes in theterms of trade and import tariffs for a small, open economy.First, a three-goods, four-factor model (labor, and capitalspecific to each sector) is developed and used to investigatehow an exogenously generated change in a country's terms oftrade affects labor allocation and wages in the short run. Next,a more traditional three-goods, two-factor model is used toexamine the effects in the long run. The analysis is carriedout under alternative assumptions regarding wage flexibility:full flexibility, economy-wide real wage rigidity, and sector-specificreal wage rigidity.     

Tracking Distortions in Agriculture: China and Its Accession to the World Trade Organization

This article examines the impacts of China's accession to theWorld Trade Organization (WTO) on prices in its agriculturalsector. The analysis uses a new methodology to estimate nominalprotection rates in China's agricultural sector before its accessionto the WTO. These new measures account for differences in commodityquality within China and between China and world markets. Theanalysis shows that some of China's agricultural commoditiesare well above world market prices and others are well below.The article also assesses market integration and efficiencyin China. It finds high degrees of integration between coastaland inland markets and between regional and village markets.The remarkable improvements in market performance in recentyears mean that if increased imports or exports affect China'sdomestic price near the border, producers throughout most ofChina will feel the price shifts.     

论“工会法治化”的中国特色社会主义工会制度发展新途径

“工会法治化”,包括工会法律制度的建立健全和工会法律角色的合理设定,能够促进工会在市场经济劳动关系中切实履行其维权职能。无论是工会工作适应新时代的转变,还是“组织起来,切实维权”工会新方针,得以经由“法治化”的工会制度实现：并且工会制度适应国内外劳工法律环境也需“法治化”发展。所以,“工会法治化”应成为中国特色社会主义工会制度发展新途径。     

Regulated Efficiency, World Trade Organization Accession, and the Motor Vehicle Sector in China

This article is concerned with the interaction of regulatedefficiency and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession andits impact on China's motor vehicle sector. The analysis isconducted using a 23 sector–25 region computable generalequilibrium model. Regulatory reform and internal restructuringare found to be critical. Restructuring is represented by acost reduction following from consolidation and rationalizationthat moves costs toward global norms. Without restructuring,WTO accession means a surge of final imports, though importsof parts could well fall as production moves offshore. However,with restructuring, the final assembly industry can be madecompetitive by world standards, with a strengthened positionfor the industry.