THE ERRONEOUS USE OF CHINA'S POPULATION AND PER CAPITA DATA: A STRUCTURED REVIEW AND CRITICAL TEST

Hundreds of studies in economics misinterpret China's subnational population and per capita data. The most widely used population counts are of hukou registrations from each province, prefecture, county, or city rather than of the people living in each place and generating local gross domestic product. Over 220 million people have left their place of registration, while almost none had when reforms began, creating time-varying errors in estimates of per capita income of subnational units. We survey empirical articles in blue ribbon journals, in development journals, and in regional and urban economics journals that use China's subnational data. Over 80% of articles use these data erroneously; most commonly the wrong population or employment counts are used to measure the size of subnational units, and per capita data are calculated with the wrong denominator for how variables are interpreted. We provide examples of errors from each group of journals, and a critical test of one highly cited study. Specifically, we show that if hukou registrations are erroneously used to measure the local population, following existing practice, conclusions about driving forces for urban area expansion are reversed. We give recommendations for more careful use of China's subnational population and per capita data.     

Cross-sectional earnings risk and occupational sorting: The role of risk attitudes

This paper investigates to what extent individuals' risk preferences are correlated with the cross-sectional earnings risk of their occupation. We exploit data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which contains a direct survey question about willingness to take risks that has been shown to be a behaviorally valid measure of risk aversion. As a measure of earnings risk, we use the cross-sectional variation in earnings that is left unexplained by human capital variables in Mincerian wage regressions. Our evidence shows that individuals with low willingness to take risks are more likely to work in occupations with low earnings risk. This pattern is found regardless of the level of occupation categories, region, gender and labor market experience.     

Empirical evidence on occupation and industry specific human capital

This paper presents instrumental variables estimates of the effects of firm tenure, occupation specific work experience, industry specific work experience, and general work experience on wages using data from the 1979 Cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The estimates indicate that both occupation and industry specific human capital are key determinants of wages, and the importance of various types of human capital varies widely across one-digit occupations. Human capital is primarily occupation specific in occupations such as craftsmen, where workers realize a 14% increase in wages after five years of occupation specific experience but do not realize wage gains from industry specific experience. In contrast, human capital is primarily industry specific in other occupations such as managerial employment where workers realize a 23% wage increase after five years of industry specific work experience. In other occupations, such as professional employment, both occupation and industry specific human capital are key determinants of wages.     

地方高校物流管理毕业生就业特征分析

为了揭示地方高校物流管理毕业生的就业现状,组织实施了小样本问卷调查,重点分析了毕业生的职业发展、岗位现状以及专业教育认同水平;调查发现,毕业生的初始就业质量不高,工作稳定性较差,不少毕业生通过跳槽离开了物流相关企业,但总体上仍有六成毕业生正在从事物流相关工作;调查结果反映出,感知专业知识匮乏与忽视理论教育两种心态同时存在,说明物流教育现状不能契合社会需求,迫切需要探索更加务实的人才培养体系。     

Systems analysis approach to research on German education

The paper shows some of the experience of the empirical research on demographic accounting which is being carried out at Heidelberg University, F.R. of Germany. The first part of the paper presents the system including the subsystems (population system, educational system, manpower system). It contains some suggestions how to measure the connections between the subsystems. The first measure is a measure of substitution, the second deals with the degree of general use of a certain educational level in terms of occupation.

In the second part of the paper special reference is given to the empirical Heidelberg studies of the educational subsystem. At present the main purpose of the project is to try out the functional relations between the various transition rates involved in the system. There-upon a sensibility analysis will be developed which provides empirical data as to which transition rates are of strategic relevance for educational planning. Here the transition rates are defined as dependent variables, certain influencing factors or determinants as independent variables. Empirical results of the structural analysis will be published at the end of 1968, those of the sensibility analysis at the end of 1969.     

Multivariate Prediction with Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis: Theory

We propose the notion of multivariate predictability as a measure of goodness-of-fit in data reduction techniques which are useful for visualizing and screening data. For quantitative variables this leads to the usual sums-of-squares and variance accounted for criteria. For categorical variables we show how to predict the category-levels of all variables associated with every point (case). The proportion of predictions which agree with the true categories gives the measure of fit. The ideas are very general; as an illustration we use nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) in association with ordered categorical variables. A detailed example using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) will be given in Blasius and Gower (quality and quantity, 39, to appear). It will be shown that the predictability criterion suggests that the fits are rather better than is indicated by “percentage of variance accounted for”.This article was written while John Gower was a visiting professor at the ZA-Eurolab, at the Zentralarchiv für Empirische Sozialforschung, University of Cologne, Germany. The ZA is a Large Scale Facility funded by the Training and Mobility of Researchers program of the European Union.     

IV models of ordered choice

This paper studies single equation instrumental variable models of ordered choice in which explanatory variables may be endogenous. The models are weakly restrictive, leaving unspecified the mechanism that generates endogenous variables. These incomplete models are set, not point, identifying for parametrically (e.g. ordered probit) or nonparametrically specified structural functions. The paper gives results on the properties of the identified set for the case in which potentially endogenous explanatory variables are discrete. The results are used as the basis for calculations showing the rate of shrinkage of identified sets as the number of classes in which the outcome is categorised increases.     

Turnover among professionals: A longitudinal study of American lawyers

Turnover intentions and actual turnover among lawyers are examined in an attempt to clarify whether common models of turnover can be applied to this professional occupation, which has rarely been examined. Three models are explored in their relation to turnover: personal characteristics, work‐related variables, and nonwork domain variables. The data are based on responses to the National Survey of Career Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction of the American Bar Association, 1984 and 1990. The findings reveal that work‐related variables were the main determinants of turnover intentions, and personal characteristics together with nonwork domain variables were the main determinants of actual turnover. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Registration of longitudinal data by means of musical notation

There is a lack of good registration methods for complex longitudinal data. Cumulating longitudinal data into cross-sections, even repeated ones, in order to allow for statistical analysis means considerable distortion of data; if they interact with each other, this is not possible to observe directly and the time factor is not taken into account to its full value, if at all. In this context, music may be defined as a complicated development in the course of time. Music is usually represented by musical notation which, if not ideal, means that we already possess a high precision registration method for complicated temporal developments. Musical notation used for registration of other longitudinal variables than musical ones allows for a multitude of qualitative variables being taken into account simultaneously and a high precision regarding the time factor. It should be no more difficult to analyse statistically a longitudinal pattern than a surface pattern.     

Using Occupational Preference in Estimating Market Wage Discrimination: the Case of the Gender Pay Gap

ABSTRACT Past occupational preference is used to estimate the gender pay gap. The use of predetermined variables in a reduced-form wage equation avoids the bias caused by using variables that are correlated with the random error. Using a gender coefficient, the potential discriminatory gap is about 11.5 percent when past occupational preference is included. Decomposition yields an estimate of 10.5 percent when past occupational preference is included. In both cases, the discriminatory gap is close to that obtained when actual occupation is included. This suggests public policy directed toward reducing hiring discrimination by gender might be misdirected.     

Influence of a culture-based entrepreneurship program on student interest in business ownership

This paper reports the results of a study that examined the impact of a culture-based entrepreneurship study abroad program on student interest in business ownership. Ninety-six students were asked to complete a pre-and post-study abroad program questionnaire that asked about their understanding of a variety of program activities and to gauge their interest in starting a business. Little similar research has been reported in the literature. Pre- and post- program mean rankings of the variable are reported. The results indicated that post-program mean ranking of knowledge, understanding, and skill ability variables tend to be higher than pre-program mean rankings. Fifteen of the 22 post-program mean values of the measured variables are significantly different from pre-program mean values. Logit regression analysis indicated that the language and program structure variables were positively associated with interest in starting a business while the Spanish business and entrepreneurial skills were negatively associated with business ownership. The results of this study may be of interest to educators involved in developing entrepreneurship and study abroad courses and programs. The study may be of special interest to those involved in developing integrative entrepreneurship programs.     

A bayesian analysis of a random coefficient model in a simple keynesian system

The marginal propensity to consume in a simple Keynesian model is treated as a random coefficient. This gives rise to the problem of quotient of random variables, i.e., the Fieller-Creasy problem. The Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators are compared in sampling experiments. The Bayesian estimators have smaller mean squared errors than the maximum likelihood estimators. Marginal posterior probability density functions for a given sample are also presented.     

农户城乡“两栖占地”形成因素、退地制度障碍与政策建议——基于“百村调查”样本分析

城乡"两栖占地"形成受土地保障功能牵制、土地收益功能吸引、乡情乡愁牵绊、城乡文化差异阻滞等因素影响。城乡"两栖占地"农户宅基地退出存在宅基地所有权主体虚位、使用权权能残缺、宅基地产权与房屋产权分离、使用权登记制度不完善等制度障碍。"百村调查"结论如下:农村"两栖占地"情况严重;农村"两栖占地"者多为经济实力较强的"能人";影响"两栖占地"农户退地的主要因素是"留恋乡情"。促进"两栖占地"农户退地的政策建议为:民主施政,让宅基地制度改革代表最广大农民的利益;科学施政,让宅基地退出政策更加符合农户愿望;精准施政,让政府宅基地退出行为更加人性化;重建信誉,让农户在宅基地退出中更加拥有获得感。     

Censored regression quantiles with endogenous regressors

This paper develops a semiparametric method for estimation of the censored regression model when some of the regressors are endogenous (and continuously distributed) and instrumental variables are available for them. A “distributional exclusion” restriction is imposed on the unobservable errors, whose conditional distribution is assumed to depend on the regressors and instruments only through a lower-dimensional “control variable,” here assumed to be the difference between the endogenous regressors and their conditional expectations given the instruments. This assumption, which implies a similar exclusion restriction for the conditional quantiles of the censored dependent variable, is used to motivate a two-stage estimator of the censored regression coefficients. In the first stage, the conditional quantile of the dependent variable given the instruments and the regressors is nonparametrically estimated, as are the first-stage reduced-form residuals to be used as control variables. The second-stage estimator is a weighted least squares regression of pairwise differences in the estimated quantiles on the corresponding differences in regressors, using only pairs of observations for which both estimated quantiles are positive (i.e., in the uncensored region) and the corresponding difference in estimated control variables is small. The paper gives the form of the asymptotic distribution for the proposed estimator, and discusses how it compares to similar estimators for alternative models.     

公共服务等值化建设与农民工——核心制度与推进路径

户籍制度及其衍生的配套政策造成了农民工不能享有与市民同等的公共服务。然而,由于积淀在户籍制度上的次生制度太多,有的已固化为社会现实,当前取消户籍制度的社会和经济成本太高,且对农民工公共服务等值化建设无实质性利好。农民工最大的问题是无力应对市场和城市生活风险,这是他们能否长期留在城市和实现市民化的关键。就此而言,农民工公共服务等值化建设的着力点并非户籍制度改革,而在于建立和完善其保障制度。     

De statistische basis van de planning in een machinefabriek

The normal or jigsaw-puzzle method of planning cannot be applied to the production of an engine factory. One has to fall back upon a kind of statistical automatism, like in the planning of road traffic as opposed to the planning of railway traffic.
In order to do this kind of planning efficiently, it is necessary to know the statistical relationships between the degree of occupation (number of working hours divided by number of available hours) of the machines, the waiting time and the velocity of flow through the factory.
The statistical analysis of some of these quantities in an Amsterdam plant, manufacturing medium size diesel engines, showed that Erlang's formulas of waiting time in telephone traffic (with exponential distribution of holding times) are applicable.
These formulas are used to prove that the highest degree of occupation is not the best one from an economic point of view. Formulas and graphs are given for finding the optimum degree of occupation in engine factories and other works where the same conditions apply.     

Education,Occupation and Career Expectations: Determinants of the Gender Pay Gap for UK Graduates*

Despite anti‐discrimination policies, women are paid 20% less then men in the UK. A large proportion of this wage gap is usually left unexplained. In this paper, I investigate whether the unexplained component is due to mis‐specification. Using a sample of recent UK graduates, I examine the role of choice variables (subject of study and occupation) as well as career expectations and aspirations. The evidence indicates that women are more altruistic and less career‐oriented than men. Career break expectations, for example, explain 10% of the gender wage gap in the favoured model. By omitting attitudinal variables, most studies are likely to overestimate the unexplained component of the gender wage gap. Women with a more traditional view concerning childrearing are also found to have less intensive search behaviour. Since aspirations may reflect perceived discrimination or social pressure, current legislations are unlikely to reduce the gender wage gap.     

Registration of longitudinal data by means of musical notation: some applications

Graphic representation of complicated courses is often necessary to detect patterns that may be worth analysing. Examples are given to show how musical notation or modifications of musical notation may be used to register courses (or cross-sectional data) with more variables than usual. One can register courses with known duration of components (and then also simultaneities); the time scale may be defined according to data. One can also register sequences without known duration of components. Finally the method can be modified so as to suit cross-sectional data. The method can be used to register a single case but also a group of cases that are thus rendered comparable. It is a method of registration, not of analysis but one that may help prepare a refined analysis.     

The role of institutional and intermediary forces in shaping patterns of employee involvement and participation (EIP) in Anglo-American countries

Most studies of employee involvement and participation (EIP) focus on organisation level, which is understandable given that employers have plenty of choice about how it should be implemented. However, even the most lightly regulated economies do not operate in a complete institutional void as some forms are regulated while government-funded initiatives also promote EIP. Employers' organisations, professional associations and other specialist organisations also operate as intermediary forces between the state and individual employers to shape EIP. However, these forces have not been analysed, an omission which seems strange given the ‘space’ available for occupation in lightly regulated economies. This paper compares the role these different forces play in shaping patterns of EIP at organisation level in four Anglo-American countries (the UK, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand) through interviews and documentary evidence at national, intermediary and organisation levels. While ‘hard’ institutional forces have some influence on representative EIP, ‘soft’ institutional and intermediary forces are more likely to shape EIP because they allow employers choice and flexibility in implementation and fit with national business systems in these countries. However, given such interventions are voluntary, they are also susceptible if government priorities change or employers are attracted by the next management fad.     

Work out or out of work — The labor market return to physical fitness and leisure sports activities

This study is the first to present evidence of the return to leisure sports in the job hiring process by sending fictitious applications to real job openings in the Swedish labor market. In the field experiment job applicants were randomly given different information about their type and level of leisure sports. Applicants who signaled sports skills had a significantly higher callback rate of about 2 percentage points, and this effect was about twice as large for physically demanding occupations.Additional evidence of a sports premium in the regular labor market is arrived at when analyzing the long-run impact of physical fitness on later labor market outcomes. The analysis uses register data on adult earnings and physical fitness when enlisting at age 18. The fitness premium, net of unobservable family variables, is in the order of 4-5%, but diminishes to 2% when controlling for non-cognitive skills.