世界石油市场:群雄逐鹿正酣

石油作为一种战略资源,被誉为“黑金”,象征着金钱、权力,甚至霸权。在经济全球化不断发展的今天,在纷扰的世界石油市场格局中,人们正在目睹着一场“群雄逐鹿”的壮烈景观。一方面,异军突起的俄罗斯,在扩大石油生产和出口,争夺里海石油管道以及打击潘基西峡谷的车臣残余分子的一系列行动中都显露出其意欲加强对石油市场控制力所做出的努力;而随着“石油武器”时代的一去不复返,随着美沙联盟关系和美俄关系的微妙变化,世界头号石油生产大国沙特阿拉伯拉动世界石油供应的神经也再度被有力地牵动。另一方面,积极营造石油买方市场,在世界石油市场上形成至少三足鼎立的局面成为美国的全球石油战略部署之一。美国能源部2003年将对非洲石油业投资100亿美元的计划,以及绕过俄罗斯和伊朗、从里海延伸至地中海的马库—第比利斯—杰伊汉输油管道的铺设,都成为美国寻求多元化供应渠道的具体反映。走到纷繁复杂的表象背后,我们试图把这多变的世界石油市场格局看个清楚。     

Perspective: The Innovation Dilemma: How to Innovate When the Market Is Mature

Most companies have ambitious growth goals. The trouble is there are only so many sources of market growth. Markets in many countries and industries are mature and increasingly commoditized; achieving growth in market share is expensive; and acquisitions often do not work. For most companies, product development means line extensions, improvements, and product modifications, and only serves to maintain market share. Markets aren't growing, so firms increasingly compete for a piece of a shrinking pie by introducing one insignificant new product after another. The launch of a truly differentiated new product in mature markets is rare these days. As a result, development portfolios have become decidedly less innovative since the mid‐1990s, and R&D productivity is down. The answer is bold innovation—breakthrough products, services and solutions that create growth engines for the future. This means larger‐scope and more systems‐oriented solutions and service packages. Examples such as Apple's iPod are often cited. (Note that Apple did not invent the MP3 player, nor was this opportunity in a blue ocean; in fact there were 43 competitors when Apple launched!) What Apple did succeed in was in identifying an attractive strategic arena (MP3s) where it could leverage its strengths to its advantage and then to develop a solution that solved users’ problems. The result—an easy‐to‐use, easy‐to‐download MP3 system, which also happened to be “cool.” Our benchmarking studies reveal that five vectors must be in place to undertake this type of innovation to yield bolder and more imaginative development projects. First, develop a bold innovation strategy that focuses your business on the right strategic arenas that promise to be engines of real growth. Most businesses focus their efforts in the wrong areas—on flat markets, mature technologies, and tired product categories. Break out of this box towards more promising strategic arenas with extreme opportunities. Next, foster a climate and culture that promotes bolder innovation. Leadership is vital to success. If senior management does not have the appetite for these big concepts, then all your efforts and systems will fail. Senior management plays a vital role here in promoting an innovative climate in your business. Next, create “big ideas” for integrated product‐service solutions. The best methods for generating breakthrough new product ideas are identified in this paper. Then drive these “big concepts” to market quickly via a systematic and disciplined idea‐to‐launch system designed for major innovation initiatives. Just because these projects are imaginative and bold is no reason to throw discipline out the window. In fact, quite the reverse is true. Finally build a solid business case and focus on the winners. Most innovation teams don't get the facts, and consequently build weak business cases; the result is that many worthwhile innovations don't get the support they need to be commercialized. It's essential to do the front‐end homework, and so build a compelling business case. Then make the right investment decisions—evaluating “big concepts” for development when little information is available. Note that financial models don't work well when it comes to evaluating major innovations, because the data are often wrong. But other methods can be used to make these tough go/kill decisions. Illustrations and examples are provided from many industries and companies to show how to implement these five vectors.     

The Role of Information Technologies in Enhancing R&D–Marketing Integration: An Empirical Investigation

The effective integration of research and development (R&D) and marketing contributes to the development of successful new products. Barriers such as physical separation of R&D and marketing, goal incongruity, and cultural differences hamper the cross‐functional cooperation. However, it may not be either possible or desirable to eliminate the cross‐functional integration barriers in practice. Previous research findings suggest that information technology (IT) can be used to reduce the negative impact of the barriers. This paper examines the moderating role of communication technologies (ITc) and decision‐aiding technologies (ITd) in improving the R&D–marketing integration in new product development. The empirical findings from analyzing data on 171 new product development projects suggest that both IT systems can be used to reduce the negative impact of physical separation, goal incongruity, and cultural differences on R&D–marketing integration. However, effectiveness of the two types of IT differs. While IT_c appears to be more effective than IT_d in overcoming the constraint of physical separation, IT_d is more effective than IT_c in reducing the negative impact of goal incongruity and cultural differences. IT_c is found to have the strongest effect on reducing the negative relationship of physical separation and integration, a less strong effect on cultural differences, and a weak effect on goal incongruity. Conversely, IT_d is found to have a strong effect on goal incongruity. These empirical findings provide guidelines for project managers using a specific IT to address a specific integration barrier. If the major barrier is physical separation, IT_c is the best solution. On the other hand, if the major barrier is goal incongruity, IT_d is the best solution. In addition, it is important for management to note that IT requires more than simply installing computer hardware and software. In addition to investing in those “hard” improvements, project managers should strive to create a supportive “soft” environment by consistently improving members' IT experiences and familiarity. In the process of the continuous development of IT, state‐of‐the‐art technologies should be introduced in a timely manner and be made accessible to all team members. Finally, project managers should frequently observe their industry peers' IT usage to keep up with advances.     

The Role of Market Information in New Product Success/Failure

Although no single variable holds the key to new product performance, many of the widely recognized success factors share a common thread: the processing of market information. Understanding customer wants and needs ultimately comes down to a company's capabilities for gathering and using market information. And another well-acknowledged success factor the integration of marketing, R&D, and manufacturing focuses on the sharing of information. In other words, a firm's effectiveness in market information processing—the gathering, sharing, and use of market information—plays a pivotal role in determining the success or failure of its new products. Brian D. Ottum and William L. Moore describe the results of a study that examines the relationship between market information processing and new product success. They also explore the organizational factors that facilitate successful processing of market information, and thus offer ideas for better managing the development of new products. The respondents—marketing, R&D, and manufacturing managers from Utah-based computer and medical device manufacturers—provided information about 58 new products, including equal numbers of successes and failures. The survey responses reveal strong relationships between product success and market information processing, with success most closely linked to information use. In other words, the gathering and sharing of information are important, but only if the information is used effectively. In 80 percent of the product successes studied, the respondents ultimately possessed and used a greater than average amount of market information. And in 75 percent of the failures, the respondents knew less than average about the market at project inception, and gathered or used less than the average amount of market information during the project. For the projects in this study, the integration of marketing, R&D, and manufacturing contributed not only to the sharing and use of information, but also to overall project success. However, the results of the study suggest that the way in which a project is organized plays only an indirect role in determining new product success—most likely by improving the processing of market information. From a managerial perspective, the most important variables identified in the study are market information shared, market information used, and financial success.     

要抢占市场更要有序竞争--电力技术市场需要澄清的几个问题

随着电力体制改革的深入,电力行业的科研院所作为“电力技术创新中心”的定位也愈来愈清晰。需要决定存在,电力科研院所之所以重要,是由于电网的现状使然,更是由于多年来电力科研院所作为电网的技术监督、技术服务、技术开发、技术信息中心,所体现出的工作业绩使然。作为电力系统的科研企业,电力科研院所何去何从,已经成为同仁间的热门话题,在此,我不敢就它的走向妄加揣度,仅就当前我们在介入电力技术市场中碰到的一些奇怪现象发表拙见,就教于大方之家。我以为,电力科研院所长期以来在电网中发挥的技术骨干作用是显而易见、无可…     

Publication of Information and Market Response: The Case of Airline on Time Performance Reports

This paper investigates market response to publication of on time performance information. Theory suggests that reduction in search costs generates more honest airlines and better quality service, a distribution of price-quality bundles, increased demand, exit by inefficient airlines and reduction of price rigidity. An ARIMA study of U.S. domestic airline operations finds that after publication of performance information the market generated better performance, increased quality distribution, enhanced demand, exit by four of fourteen airlines and reduced price-quality rigidity. Publication of information may improve performance in markets characterized by asymmetric information and high search costs.     

The Role of Market Research in the Development of New Consumer Products

Managers today face the twin challenges of producing better results, faster than ever before. Robert Davis presents a number of lessons on how market research can enhance a typical new product development and decision plan. His central theme is the disciplined use of very focused market research to make better and faster decisions about a new product throughout its development. These lessons are based on his thirty years of experience in market research, mostly in the new products work conducted at Procter & Gamble.     

The Impact of Innovative Culture on Individual Employees: The Moderating Role of Market Information Sharing

Current innovation literature provides a very limited understanding of the potential impacts of innovative culture on employees. Building on resource‐based view theory, the authors investigate theoretically and empirically how a perceived innovative culture can be a building block for a firm's competitive resource and advantage by creating superior employee‐level outcomes and how a market information‐sharing process may moderate these effects. The authors identify three distinct types of individual‐level outcomes stemming from an innovative culture. The three outcome variables—job satisfaction, organizational dynamism perception, and firm performance perception—reflect employees’ psychological and cognitive reactions to the process of creating organizational innovation and innovative culture. The authors collect survey data from 3960 individual employees in China. Their findings first show that a perceived innovative culture significantly and positively affects employees’ job satisfaction and perceptions of organizational dynamism and firm performance. Moreover, organizational dynamism perception plays an important mediating role among three employee‐level outcomes by converting job satisfaction into firm performance perception. The authors also find support for the direct, positive effect of a perceived market information‐sharing process on job satisfaction but not on perceptions of organizational dynamism and firm performance. Most importantly, their findings on the significant moderating role of a market information‐sharing system contribute to innovation theory by emphasizing the importance of the innovation/marketing interface: bundling market information sharing and innovative culture together enhances employees’ positive attitudes and perceptions. This result also suggests that examining only the direct effects of innovative culture and market information sharing may lead to incorrect conclusions as to how to manage the cultural infusion process: the market information‐sharing process shows only a weak effect on job satisfaction and no effect on perceptions of organizational dynamism or firm performance. Organizational designs should ensure simultaneous consideration of both variables in the cultural transformation process to enhance employees’ derived benefits in the process of creating an innovative culture. We offer a new insight: a perceived market information‐sharing process may strengthen the effect of an innovative culture on employees’ job satisfaction and organizational dynamism perception, while it may weaken the effect of an innovative culture on firm performance perception. This more nuanced view of market information sharing in the cultural infusion process presents new wisdom and calls for further studies in entrepreneurial innovation.     

The Role of Hospital and Market Characteristics in Invasive Cardiac Service Diffusion

Little is known about how the adoption and diffusion of medical innovation is related to and influenced by market characteristics such as competition. The particular complications that are involved in investigating these relationships in the health care sector may explain the dearth of research. We examine three invasive cardiac services: diagnostic angiography, percutaneous coronary interventions, and coronary artery bypass grafting. We document the relationship between the adoption by hospitals of these three invasive cardiac services and the characteristics of the hospitals, their markets, and the interactions among them, from 1997 to 2014. The results show that the probability of hospitals’ adopting a new cardiac service depends on competition in two distinct ways: (1) hospitals are substantially more likely to adopt an invasive cardiac service if competitor hospitals also adopt new services; and (2) hospitals are less likely to adopt a new service if a larger fraction of the nearby population already has geographic access to the service at a nearby hospital. The first effect is stronger, leading to the net effect that hospitals duplicate rather than expand access to care. In addition, for-profit hospitals are considerably more likely to adopt these cardiac services than are either nonprofit or government-owned hospitals. Nonprofit hospitals in high-penetration, for-profit markets are also more likely to adopt them relative to other nonprofits. These results suggest that factors other than medical need—such as a medical arms race—partially explain technological adoption.     

Barriers to Matching New Technologies and Market Opportunities in Established Firms

In industries that produce high‐technology products or are reliant on technology for administrative or manufacturing processes, it is essential appropriately to link technologies to markets in order to increase shareholder value and to build future cash flows. Research and development (R&D) allocations in such industries are greatly dependent on forecasts of the R&D project's estimated potential contribution to future cash flows, which is related to the project's ability to satisfy current or future customer needs. The resource allocation decisions are difficult, however, since both markets and technology are likely to be highly uncertain. Although the innovation literature ably has addressed specific relationships between certain factors and new product development outcomes, less attention has been given to obstacles faced in linking technology to markets. Grounded in a literature‐based discussion of technology and market opportunity, the authors develop a conceptual framework for identifying and understanding the barriers facing managers in the process of matching technologies to market opportunities. Technology and market barriers include technology‐market linkage, technology availability, technology and market capabilities of competitors, and business model feasibility. Strategy and structure barriers include competition for limited resources, technology capabilities, technology portfolio goals, current market strategies, and competition for control of market charters. Social and cultural barriers include interpretive and communication barriers between functional units and language and cultural barriers within the technology workforce. The article concludes with implications for researchers and managers. The conceptual framework presented here can encourage the development of a stream of research in the area of technology strategy and planning processes, allowing researchers to improve our understanding of the process of technology innovation. Managers can use the framework as a guide for addressing a wide range of issues related to the process of matching technologies to market opportunities. For example, rather than relying strictly on cash flow projections for estimating the value of a new technology, managers also should consider how the technology could create new market opportunities or could reshape existing ones.     

The Fractal Structure of Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: The Search for Evidence of Market Segmentation and Nonlinear Dependency

This article presents a further test for market segmentation between the real estate market and the capital markets. We use rescaled range analysis developed in the fractal geometry literature to test for nonlinear trends in the returns series for different asset classes. We make three major conclusions: (1) the stock market displays tendencies consistent with a random walk, (2) portfolios of mortgage and equity REIT returns display tendencies consistent with a random walk and, (3) conditional upon the methods used, segmentation does not exist between different real estate markets and between the real estate and stock markets.     

Introduction: Labor Market Institutions and the Future Role of Unions

Government regulations and business policies affecting employee relations are on an up ward trend, whereas the role of organized labor in private-sector industrial relations is on a downward trend. The significance of the displacement of private-sector unions in this transformation is not sufficiently addressed in the literature. The papers in this volume, summarized in this introduction, partly respond to this unmet need. We conclude with an agenda for future research about the labor movement, unions, and government in industrial relations     

The Role of Suppliers in Market Intelligence Gathering for Radical and Incremental Innovation*

Drawing on transaction cost economics theory, this study addresses the following research questions: (1) Does supplier involvement in market intelligence gathering activities have a greater impact on innovation success in predesign or commercialization activities? and (2) Does supplier involvement in market intelligence gathering activities have a greater impact on success in radical or incremental product innovation? Hypotheses are tested using both subjective and objective measures of success from a study of 205 incremental and 110 radical new product development projects. Results from the estimation of a two‐group path model suggest that this theoretical framework is useful in providing guidance as to when product developers should emphasize the gathering of market intelligence through suppliers. Consistent with conventional wisdom, the findings suggest that supplier involvement in market intelligence gathering activities are positively related to success in incremental innovations across predesign and commercialization activities. However, supplier involvement in market intelligence gathering activities is found to have no significant impact on market share and is negatively associated with perceived product performance in radical innovations in predesign tasks. Also, while there was no significant difference in market share for supplier involvement in market intelligence gathering activities between radical and incremental innovation in commercialization activities, supplier involvement in these activities did have a greater impact on perceived product performance in radical innovation than it did in incremental innovation. Although current practice suggests that teams allocate fewer resources to the gathering of market intelligence through their suppliers during predesign activities in incremental innovation projects compared with radical innovation projects, the findings in this study suggest that they should do the opposite. Shifting resources allocated for engaging suppliers in market information gathering activities in predesign activities from radical innovation projects to incremental innovation projects could increase the return on these investments. Alternatively, these resources currently allocated to the gathering of market intelligence through suppliers in predesign activities of radical innovation projects could also provide greater benefits if allocated to commercialization activities of radical innovation projects, where they have the greatest positive impact.     

业绩预告的披露现状及其市场反应研究

以2009年沪深A股上市公司年度业绩预告为研究对象,总结上市公司的披露策略,用事件研究法验证业绩预告有明显的市场反应,并且分析了不同消息类型的业绩预告市场反应之间的差异,好消息的披露产生的市场反应比坏消息更加剧烈。     

The Gradual Response of Market Power to Mergers in the U.S. Steel Industry

Studies of the impact of horizontal mergers on market power typically impose an immediate adjustment of market power following a merger. This paper adopts an alternative procedure to estimate the effect of four mergers on market power in the U.S. steel industry. Namely, by estimating a switching regression model that incorporates profit-maximizing behavior, the results show that mergers generally increased market power in the steel industry. However, it did take some time for market power to fully adjust after each merger.     

农药使用负面影响管理中的政府、市场与组织

中国以国家干预、政府主导为特征的农药管理政策,在维护国家粮食安全、环境影响控制和农产品质量安全方面已经取得了较大进展,但目前政府主导、事前监管为主的农药负面影响管理忽视了市场和组织的力量及其在事中和事后监管中的优势,效率亟待提高。文章构建了一个政府监督、调控衣药负面影响的分析框架,应用这一新的分析框架加强和改善政府对农药负面影响的管理和调控,就需要以政府为主体,创新农药管理体制;同时重视发挥、培育市场和组织的力量。     

消费网络效应与专业零售商买方势力规制

耐用品消费的网络效应导致大型专业零售商收取通道费的价格水平偏离了拉姆齐最优价格结构,这是实施政府规制的基本要件。同时,与非专业化大型零售商的情况不同,大型专业零售商经营的商品品种相对较少,品类规格相对简单,从而使得针对大型专业化零售商展开相应的经济规制具有经济上的可行性。所以应该在周密调查和研究以后,推出针对大型专业化零售商的纵向约束行为的规制措施,一方面提高纵向结构的效率,另一方面提高社会福利水平。