4月重点上市公司业绩点评

格力电器(000651.SZ)白色家电行业一季度低于预期主要因行业销售平淡,见表1。格力电器发布业绩快报:一季度实现营业收入222.9亿元,同比增长11%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润13.4亿元,同比增长14.3%。业绩低于预期与行业增速不高及同业促销有关,但不必担心格力份额下降和价格战,期待地产和天气拉动旺季销售。     

宁沪高速(600377) 黄金干道行业先锋

区域垄断,未来无太大分流风险毛利率提升,财务费用08年可能将下降配套服务和其他业务持续较快增长当前股价:7.79元目标股价:12元今日投资个股安全诊断星级:★★★★公司年报业绩符合预期。公司2007年全年实现营业收入53.1亿元,净利润16.01亿元,分别同比增长31%和42%;每股收益0.318元,基本符合预期(我们对营业收入、净利润和每股收益的预测分别为51.6亿、15.4亿和0.31元)。公司董事会以总股本5,     

强势股回眸

潞安环能(601699):业绩符合预期成长性仍然较高潞安环能(601699)周四最高涨幅8.50%,换手率1.62%。公司近期公布2007年业绩快报,实现营业收入781598万元,同比增长8.2%(因新会计准则实施导致可比性不强);净利润98074万元,同比增长17.7%;基本每股收益和全面摊薄每股收益均为1.53元。今日投资《在线分析师》显示,07-09年公司综合每股盈利预测     

风险股提示

沙钢股份（002075）二季度业绩仍难乐观一季度营业收入同比增长,但盈利能力和净利润同比下降。2011年一季度公司实现营业收入38.63亿元,同比增长37.00%;营业成本34.60亿元,同比增长43.99%;实现归属于母公司所有者净利润1.00亿元,同比下降13.87%;     

强势股回眸

★★★★★兴发集团(600141)磷化工产品价格大幅上涨兴发集团(600141)周四最高收升7.24%,换手率超过2.50%。公司一季度业绩基本符合我们预期。兴发集团一季度实现主营业务收入5.36亿元,同比增长67.7%;主营业务利润9100万元,同比增长96.4%;净利润4500万元,同比增长     

又到年报“捉虫”时

沪深两市2012年上市公司年报收官,整体利润较上年无大起色,但业绩两极化、上市即变脸、报告频频出错等顽疾依旧存在。截至2013年4月27日,2012年A股上市公司年报收官。统计显示,沪深两市上市公司2012年平均实现营业收入98.41亿元,同比增长8.09%;平均净利润8.1亿元,同比增长0.59%;平均每股收益0.5187元。A股上市公司2012年的整体营业收入增速以及净利润增速双双创出2008年以来的最低值。盘点2012年报,上市公司的整体利润规模与2011年相比几乎维持     

雅戈尔（600177） 品牌服装业务发展良好

三季报点评 11年三季报EPS为0．56元,其中服装业务贡献约0．22元,净利润同比增长48％,业绩略超预期。前三季度营业收入80．3亿元,同比增长1．4％,营业利润18．1亿元,增长69％,利润总额18．6亿,增长53％,归属上市公司股东净利润为12．4亿元,增长48％,EPS为0．56元,业绩超预期。房地产业务收入确认和品牌服装业务发展良好是业绩超预期的主要原因。     

保险业，迎来“基本面＋政策”双轮驱动

2014年上半年，上市保险公司共实现净利润503．65亿元，同比增长20．61％，中期业绩总体符合预期。同时，新业务价值增速创2010年以来新高，投资收益改善带动净资产、内含价值大幅增长。     

潜力股前瞻

★★★★丽珠集团(000513)经营稳健持续增长可期公司上半年实现营业收入13.28亿元,较去年同期增长9.35%,归属于上市公司股东的净利润2.42亿元,比去年同期减少2.57%,扣除非经常性损益后的净利润同比增长23.69%,中期EPS0.82元,总体符合预期。受益于旺盛的市场需求,公司原料药产品收入同比增幅达到47.12%,特别是头孢类原料药销售大幅增长。     

聚焦：7家上市银行撑起A股利润“半边天”

在部分行业成长乏力之际,银行业依然保持稳健的业绩规模和增速,并成为上市公司净利润的贡献＂大户＂。截至3月27日,沪深两市共有7家银行披露年报,合计实现净利润3913.97亿元,同比增长31.68%。这7家银行贡献了已披露年报的上市公司近50%的净利润。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.