The Valuation-relevance of Earnings and Cash Flows: an International Perspective

We investigate which variable, earnings or cash flows, provides greater information for equity valuation within the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and Japan. We regress returns on earnings and cash flow metrics. We generally find earnings developed in three Anglo-Saxon countries—where capital is traditionally raised in public markets and reporting rules are unencumbered by taxation requirements—to have greater explanatory power for stock returns than cash flow metrics. Conversely, in two non-Anglo-Saxon countries—where capital is traditionally raised from private sources—earnings are generally not superior to cash flows for equity valuation, except in Japan, non-consolidated sample. While sensitivity analyses generally support the conclusions of our primary tests, in some of the additional analyses, earnings were superior to cash flows for samples from all countries. As expected, in all countries earnings have incremental information content over cash flows in explaining returns. Collectively, our findings provide two contributions. First, we generalize the findings of prior US research by showing that earnings are more important than cash flows for equity valuation in other Anglo-Saxon countries. Second and more importantly, our findings demonstrate that the superiority of earnings over cash flows is not universal. Rather, it depends on the national reporting regime and attendant institutional factors.     

Earnings Benchmarks and the Information Content of Quarterly Foreign Earnings of U.S. Multinational Companies

The meeting of earnings benchmarks is considered important for investors. The chief financial officers of U.S. companies state that the three most important earnings thresholds to meet are the earnings in the same quarter last year, the analysts' earnings forecast for the current quarter, and zero earnings. These earnings benchmarks have been defined in terms of total earnings. For U.S. multinational firms, total earnings consist primarily of domestic earnings and foreign earnings. We conduct an event study where we examine (1) the stock market reaction to meeting or beating quarterly domestic and foreign earnings benchmarks and (2) the market reaction to the changes in quarterly domestic and foreign earnings, while we control for meeting or beating the analysts' earnings forecast and the analysts' earnings forecast surprise. We find that the quarterly financial statement disclosure of domestic and foreign earnings under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 131 supplies investors with valuable information that was not previously disseminated through financial analysts or other sources. The stock market reaction to meeting or beating foreign earnings from the same quarter in the prior year is stronger than the market reaction to meeting or beating domestic earnings from the same quarter in the prior year.     

International Variation in Bank Accounting Information Content

This study explores the cross‐country impact of financial system and banking regulations on the information content of bank earnings and book value. Test results provide empirical evidence that financial system and banking regulations have a joint effect on the association of equity price with earnings and book value components in Germany, France, the United Kingdom and United States. This effect is explainable by the objective bank function, which shows that earnings of the period determine the terminal book value, thus consistent with the clean surplus accounting approach. Cross‐country variation in bank accounting information content calls for caution in interpreting international bank financial and operating ratios.     

Testing the independence of forecast errors in the forward foreign exchange market using Markov chains: A cross-country comparison

In this paper, we apply the theory of finite state Markov chains to test the cross-country and temporal independence of forecast errors in the forward foreign exchange market. Specifically, we consider the month-end thirty day foreign exchange data for Canada, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and West Germany for the period 1974–1981. Using pairwise comparisons for the various countries, we find that except for Canada, the hypothesis that the probability distribution of the forecast error of one country is independent of the forecast error of another is rejected. Further tests indicate that the temporal independence for most countries is also rejected. Based upon these results, we conclude that for these six countries, there is current information available which is ‘useful’ in predicting the future forward exchange forecast errors.     

The Impact and Importance of Mandatory Adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards in Europe

In this paper we report the results of conducting a two‐stage analysis on the impact and importance of mandatory adoption of international accounting reporting standards (IFRS) on European Union firms. In the first stage we determined the impact of mandatory adoption of IFRS across 13 countries and twenty industries. This was accomplished by identifying significant differences in return on assets (ROA) for firms computed under IFRS and local, generally accepted accounting principles (LG). Significant positive differences were detected for firms in Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom: only German and Norwegian firms exhibited a negative average significant difference between ROA calculated using IFRS and LG. Repeating the analysis of differences in ROA on an industry‐by‐industry basis yielded additional Portuguese and Spanish firms for the second stage of the analysis in which the impact of mandatory IFRS adoption was assessed. Defining impact in terms of market and financial reporting quality, we found a statistically significant relationship between accounting information and market returns for firms in the all‐countries‐combined sample of 3,530 observations, and in the countries of Belgium, Finland, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Support for the timeliness of accounting information was uncovered for firms in the all‐countries‐combined sample, and in the countries of Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Finally, evidence to support the proposition that accounting regimes produce quality discretionary accruals was found for firms from the all‐countries‐combined sample of 3,480 observations and from Finland, Greece, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. When comparing differential accounting information constructed under IFRS and LG, however, few differences could be found. Specifically, there was no statistical support for any of the samples that accounting information produced under IFRS was any more value relevant than the accounting information derived using LG. When our examination shifted to the timeliness of earnings, a positive differential impact between earnings constructed on the basis of IFRS and local accounting standards was detected only for the all‐countries‐combined sample. Finally, the quality of discretionary accruals was shown to be significantly higher under IFRS than LG for firms in Finland, Greece and Sweden.     

Firm Characteristics and the Pricing of Foreign Earnings of US Multinational Firms

Prior research finds a positive relation between current changes in foreign earnings of USmultinational firms and future stock returns. The cause of this relation is either (1) investors' mispricing of securities by underestimating the persistence of foreign earnings or (2) research design misspecifications (e.g., the researcher failing to control for cross‐sectional differences in risk). The purpose of this study is to determine which of these two competing explanations is more likely. If the anomalous results are due to market mispricing, then the anomalous results should be more pronounced for firms that are followed by fewer well‐informed, sophisticated investors and for firms that have foreign earnings that are more persistent than domestic earnings. If the anomaly is related to research design misspecification, then the existence of the anomaly is not expected to vary across these firm characteristics. The results are more consistent with the market mispricing hypothesis. Predicting the existence of the foreign earnings anomaly based on these firm‐specific characteristics increases our understanding of the true nature of the anomaly. In addition, relating the foreign earnings anomaly to firm‐specific characteristics provides relevant information to investors for firm valuation and helps to promote future academic research in the market's valuation of multinational firms' operations.     

Leading indicators of inflation in market economies

Inflation rates are cyclical in major market-oriented economies. Recently Geoffrey H. Moore and Stanley Kaish applied the well-known leading indicator approach to the development of a leading index of inflation cycles for the United States. Their index was based on measures of tightness in the labor market, and a measure of tightness in total credit markets, along with a measure of changes in industrial commodity prices. They found that this composite index reflects changes in inflation rate cycles reasonably well, and that it was more reliable than any of the three components taken alone. The present study broadens their study by attempting to duplicate the leading inflation index for forecasting changes in inflation rates in Canada, the United Kingdom, West Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. In general we find that the leading index is useful in anticipating changes in inflation rates in all these countries with the exception of France and Italy. As such we find that the forecasting properties of this index are often as promising in other countries as they have been in the U.S. Where they are not we conclude that there is a need for further research.     

Review

In this study we extend prior research on the international analysis of accounting conservatism (Joos and Lang, 1994; Ball et al., 2000; Giner and Rees, 2001), by examining the level of accounting conservatism across eight European countries (United Kingdom, Germany, France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Belgium), and assessing the statistical significance of the differences among them. The definitions of conservatism that we use are, on the one hand, the Feltham and Ohlson (1995) definition, which implies a persistent understatement of book value of shareholders' equity (balance sheet conservatism). On the other hand, we use the one proposed by Basu (1997), that is, a timelier recognition of bad news in earnings relative to good news (earnings conservatism). We also address the possible scale problems of the models used to measure balance sheet conservatism. Finally, we check whether our comparative results could be influenced by a different sample composition in each country. Our results show that there are both balance sheet and earnings conservatism practices in all countries under study. In addition, while continental countries show larger balance sheet conservatism, differences in earnings conservative practices between countries are not that pronounced, although they tend to be larger in the UK. We also find that the existence of balance sheet conservative practices is associated with reduced levels of earnings conservatism, which is consistent with the results in Pope and Walker (2003).     

Are stock prices related to the political uncertainty index in OECD countries? Evidence from the bootstrap panel causality test

This study applies the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (2006. Econ Modell 23, 978) to investigate the causal link between political uncertainty and stock prices for seven OECD countries over the monthly period of 2001.01 to 2013.04. This modeling approach allows us to examine both cross-sectional dependency and country-specific heterogeneity. Our empirical results indicate that not all the countries are alike and that the theoretical prediction that stock prices fall at the announcement of a policy change is not always supported. Specifically, we find evidence for the stock price leading hypothesis for Italy and Spain, while the political uncertainty leading hypothesis cannot be rejected for the United Kingdom and the United States. In addition, the neutrality hypothesis was supported in the remaining three countries (Canada, France and Germany), while no evidence for the feedback hypothesis was found.     

Accuracy, Bias, and Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: The Case of Cross-Listed Foreign Firms

This paper examines differences in analysts' earnings forecast characteristics for foreign incorporated non-U.S. firms cross-listed in the U.S. stock markets relative to a control sample of purely domestic firms. Examining summary earnings forecasts over the calendar years 1984 through 1989, this paper provides evidence that there are statistically significant differences in bias and accuracy between domestic and cross-listed foreign firms. Consistent with prior research, we find a horizon effect in accuracy; i.e., accuracy improves as we get closer to the actual earnings announcement for both types of firms. However, the differences in accuracy between the cross-listed and domestic firms persist only in the earlier forecast horizons where analysts' forecasts are less accurate for foreign cross-listed firms compared with domestic firms. The evidence is also consistent with analysts' exhibiting less optimism with respect to cross-listed foreign firms compared with the domestic firms. Finally, the paper also documents that there is a greater consensus among analysts for foreign cross-listed firms than for domestic firms.     

Capital Market Reactions to Accounting Earnings Announcements in an International Context

This study examines the association of four factors with U.S. securities market reactions to annual earnings announcements by non-U.S. multinational corporations and by a control sample of U.S. firms. The four factors examined are firm size, the magnitude of earnings change, timeliness, and the presence or absence of a concurrent dividend announcement. The non-U.S. corporations are from five countries - Israel, Japan, Netherlands, Philippines, and United Kingdom. Results for the group of non-U.S. firms indicate that firm size and timeliness are significant explanatory variables. For the control sample of U.S. firms, only size is significant.     

The Usefulness of Earnings and Book Value for Equity Valuation in Emerging Capital Markets: Evidence From Listed Companies in the People's Republic of China

This paper examines the relative value relevance in equity valuation of two sets of accounting information of listed Chinese companies which issued the so-called B shares to foreign investors on the Chinese stock exchanges. These firms are required to prepare two sets of financial statements: one based on China's accounting regulations (domestic GAAPs) and the other based on International Accounting Standards (IASs). The study adopted the Ohlson (1995) model and used the Davidson-MacKinnon J-test to assess which one of these two competing sets of accounting information is more closely associated with the share prices. The results showed that earnings and book value reported based on IASs have greater information content than those based on domestic GAAPs. The results of yearly regression analysis generally suggested that the explanatory power of these earnings and book values for share prices increased over time.     

The Impact of Mandatory IFRS Adoption on Equity Valuation of Accounting Numbers for Security Investors in the EU

Motivated by the European Union (EU) decision to mandate application of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to the consolidated financial statements of all EU listed firms (Regulation (EC) 1606/2002), starting in December 2005, we compare the value relevance of accounting information in 14 European countries in the year prior to and the year of the mandatory adoption of the IFRS. We focus on three accounting information items for which measurements under IFRS are likely to differ considerably from measurements under domestic accounting practices across the EU countries prior to the introduction of the international standards: goodwill, research and development expenses (R&D), and asset revaluation. These three items, selected on an a priori basis, have been shown in previous research to differ in the effect of uncertainty on their future benefits. We use valuation models that include these three variables and in addition the book value of equity and earnings. Overall, our study suggests that the adoption of the IFRS has increased the value relevance of the three accounting numbers for investors in equity securities in the EU. Association tests support our two hypotheses: (1) in the year prior to the mandatory adoption of the IFRS, the incremental value relevance to investors of the three domestic GAAP-based accounting items was greater in countries where the respective domestic standards were more compatible with the IFRS; and (2) the higher the deviation of the three domestic GAAP-based accounting items from their corresponding IFRS values, the greater the incremental value relevance to investors from the switch to IFRS. These associations prevail when considering cross-country differences in the institutional environments, which tend to provide complementary effects.     

Accounting earnings and firm valuation: the French case

Considering that the level of the association between stock returns and accounting earnings provides a measure of the extent to which earnings summarize the information which is useful for firm valuation, this paper analyses the contemporaneous association between stock returns and earnings changes or earnings level of individual French stocks and portfolios for periods of one, two and five years between 1981 and 1990. The empirical findings are as follows. (a) Stock returns are more linked to earnings changes than to earnings levels indicating that earnings provide more information about changes in firm value than about firm value. (b) Earnings prepared in accordance with the French accounting principles are not less value-relevant than those prepared in accordance with US or UK GAAP. (c) A cross-sectionally and time-aggregated data procedure provides a large increase in the explanatory power of earnings for returns which is consistent with a noise-in-earnings effect probably induced by accounting measurement and valuation principles and with a recognition lag effect due to the fact that value-relevant events are not integrated into earnings exactly when they occur. These two effects are shown to be the major causes of the low association between earnings and returns generally observed in studies based on short period data for individual stocks.     

Earnings Management in Domestic and Foreign IPOs in the United States: Do Home Country Institutions Matter?

Using a large sample of domestic and foreign IPOs in the US, we investigate how threats of enforcement by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and private litigation influence earnings management in IPO prospectuses. We propose that perceptions of foreign institutions may influence SEC enforcement action and private litigation. We provide evidence that enforcement and litigation threats are negatively related to the strength of legal institutions in the foreign IPO’s country of origin. We find earnings management is more pronounced in foreign IPOs from countries with strong legal institutions. We further explore whether earnings management is priced in the IPO market and find no relation between IPO proceeds and earnings management. Our results are consistent with upward earnings management as in Stein (1989), the magnitude of which is reduced when the anticipated cost of enforcement and litigation is higher. Collectively, our results cast doubt on the validity of the bonding hypothesis.     

Auditor Industry Specialization,Political Economy and Earnings Quality: Some Cross‐Country Evidence

Using cross‐country data, we evaluate the impact of investor protection on the association between earnings quality and audits by industry specialists. Our findings show that the positive association between industry specialist auditors and earnings quality as documented in the literature is affected by the political electoral system, which reflects investor protection rights in a country. We document that audits by industry specialists are associated with higher earnings quality in countries with the proportional electoral system, reflecting weak investor protection. Our results also confirm Kwon et al.'s findings that overall there is a positive association between earnings quality and audits by industry specialists in countries with weak legal enforcement. Our findings, however, indicate that Kwon et al.'s results are valid only for countries with weak investor protection reflected by the proportional electoral system and not for countries with strong investor protection reflected by the majoritarian electoral system. These findings thus suggest that higher earnings quality of firms audited by industry specialists across countries can especially be expected when investor protection is low and legal enforcement is also weak. In addition, our research suggests that future cross‐country studies could explicitly consider the role of the political electoral system of a country in evaluating corporate governance, management and accounting issues.     

The family gap in pay in Europe: a cross-country study

In this paper we present estimates of the penalty in pay associated with motherhood for 11 European countries. Firstly, analysis of the European Community Household Panel Survey (ECHP) reveals that significant penalties in pay exist within Germany, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. Analysis for Germany (using the German Socio-Economic Panel) and the UK (using the British Household Panel Survey) reveals that career breaks contribute towards lower earnings growth. While periods of family formation are associated with lower earnings growth in Germany, in the UK completed spells of family formation are associated with a recovery in earnings growth.     

技术政治的陷阱及其规避

技术政治作为一种政治变革运动,对英国、美国、加拿大等主要西方国家的社会生活都发生了深刻的影响。伴随政治现代化进程的推进,技术政治正在为我国政治的进步作出贡献。与此同时,技术政治的陷阱也在无知无觉之中铺设于我国政治领域。科学发展观为技术政治的发展提供了价值支撑,它以科学为先导,倡导公共精神、集体理性和人文关怀,成为规避技术政治陷阱的有力杠杆。     

IFRS and Secrecy: Assessing Accounting Value Relevance Across Africa

We examine the value relevance of accounting across several African countries and test whether IFRS improved the value association of earnings and equity book values. We report a stronger valuation association between accounting and stock prices in African countries classified as having a secrecy culture. This increases after IFRS and more so for earnings. On the other hand, IFRS induced a stronger increase in the book value coefficient in the less secretive and more developed South African market. We surmise that the more conceptual focus of IFRS induced an increased demand for higher‐quality accounting professionals, which had a filtering‐down effect of improving quality information flow and breaking down the secrecy culture. Our research highlights the diverse impacts of IFRS and the role of culture, asset markets and accounting professionalism, in driving the relevance of accounting components across Africa.     

A Comparison of Reporting Lags of Multinational and Domestic Firms

This study examines whether multinational firms report earnings sooner than domestic firms. When compared with domestic firms, the reporting environment and business operations of multinational firms are significantly more complex. There is a greater amount of information asymmetry between managers and shareholders of multinational firms. Therefore, multinational firms potentially face higher monitoring and external financing costs. To reduce these costs, we conjecture that managers of multinational firms take steps to reduce the information asymmetry between shareholders and management by increasing the timeliness (a proxy for relevance) of their earnings reports. Specifically, we expect multinational firms to announce earnings earlier than domestic firms. We separate earnings reporting delay into auditor‐related delay and management's discretionary delay. While test results weakly support the hypothesis that auditors take longer to audit multinational firms, there is strong evidence that managers of multinational firms release their earnings reports sooner than domestic firms.