US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks

Recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of US fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades, with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post‐shift period. In this paper, we re‐examine sustainability using a new approach, based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks. A Bayesian methodology is applied, incorporating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulators. In contrast to previous analyses, we find evidence of a sustainable deficit process over the 1947–1992 period, despite the occurrence of breaks during the 1970s and 1980s. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Systemic analysis of a manufacturing process based on a small scale bakery

The main aim of the article is to present two new innovative concepts of reliability of a functioning manufacturing system in the process of making bread in small-scale bakeries. Reliability is understood as one of the representations of an operator acting on specific streams in time t_o to t. One of these represents the global reliability of a system as a function of parallel action of all the streams of the system in time t_o to t and is denoted as P_g^(t). The second representation of reliability is a scalar value, P_ss It shows a new function of global reliability of a manufacturing process as a product of system stream reliability. In order to plot the flow of the manufacturing process’s global reliability function, we need to perform detailed calculations, computations, and analysis of the differences of individual values in real time, as well as plan an algorithm of the flow of system streams. This needs a lot of effort, translating however, to a detailed picture of the process. In the analysed example, measurements and research revealed an important increase of the value of reliability in a transition from a traditional to a robotised bakery. The article also presents a new concept of the reliability of a technological process, based on the analysis of relations of elements of the following streams: energy, matter, information, time, and finances. It shows the method of specifying streams and the method for defining the reliability of important and supportive relations. Important relations between stream elements are defined as having the reliability value of one in time. Supportive relations bear the reliability within a continuum between zero and one. Important relations are designated based on research, experience, and knowledge. Stream systemic reliability P_ss is a scalar value, i.e. a number from the continuum between zero and one. The P_ss value characterises failure-free operation of the whole system. Its average value in the normative time t_n expresses the efficiency of the manufacturing system. The value P_ss is a quotient of the number of important relation and the sum of important and supportive relations. The formula for P_ss shows the method of optimising the process through the increasing of the number of important relations between the input stream components. The concept has been applied to study the efficiency of operation of a small-scale bakery. Systemic analysis of a bakery allows for important increase in the reliability of baking bread if robotisation has been implemented. The concept of systemic-stream reliability P_ss may be applied to analyse the efficiency of any technological process and optimisation of any manufacturing process.

     

Two-step estimation of panel data models with censored endogenous variables and selection bias

This paper presents some two-step estimators for a wide range of parametric panel data models with censored endogenous variables and sample selection bias. Our approach is to derive estimates of the unobserved heterogeneity responsible for the endogeneity/selection bias to include as additional explanatory variables in the primary equation. These are obtained through a decomposition of the reduced form residuals. The panel nature of the data allows adjustment, and testing, for two forms of endogeneity and/or sample selection bias. Furthermore, it incorporates roles for dynamics and state dependence in the reduced form. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration which features our procedure and highlights the ability to test several of the underlying assumptions.     

Unconscious bias in the HRM literature: Towards a critical-reflexive approach

This article presents a systematic review of the human resource management (HRM) literature to document how the term “unconscious bias” is defined, theorized, and operationalized in a sample of 518 articles in the field. The review identifies four main thematic streams in which unconscious bias is commonly discussed: (1) the biased individual; (2) bias as binary; (3) bias in moments of decisions; and (4) bias as a fixable issue. Based on this thematic mapping of the literature, a critical-reflexive approach is outlined to shed light on and challenge taken-for-granted assumptions, interrogate how arguments are brought forth and open up new avenues for future research. This article contributes to the existing HRM literature in three ways. First, it shows patterns in existing theory, making explicit the inconsistencies and tacit assumptions in the ways in which unconscious bias is theorized in HRM research. Second, it presents a critical-reflexive approach to researching unconscious bias. Third, based on this approach, it suggests avenues for future research on how to move beyond these inconsistencies and assumptions.     

Electronic data interchange: a strategic approach

The potential of EDI is virtually unlimited, but the success of any EDI initiative hinges on its ability to directly support strategies that achieve your institution's business objectives. At its most fundamental level, EDI technology automates current business practices, speeding up the exchange of business information. This application of EDI most often is found in a hospital's material management department. But EDI integrated internally within a hospital and externally with suppliers and vendors has the potential to go beyond simple automation and to transform processes. This is where the full value of EDI can be realized. No matter which level of EDI participation hospital management decides is appropriate to fulfill its business objectives and strategies, EDI will affect the entire institution's exchange of information with its internal and external audiences. The question management must answer is: Will the hospital's EDI strategy be offensive and managed, or defensive and reactive? Today's environment leaves no room for a "no-strategy" EDI option. The options are either to proactively shape EDI, or reactively play catch-up. EDI can work for you. Adequately developing an EDI game plan in support of your business objectives and calling on your suppliers and other trading partners to work with you will ensure EDI is an asset to your facility.     

Cultural tourism: an integrated analysis based on official data

Quality & Quantity - The main aim of this paper is to analyze cultural tourism in Italy and its relationship with the territory (that is considered the principal driver of the analysis) and to...     

Using data in legacy fundraising: a practical approach

• Legacies provide a major source of income to charities, and their importance is only likely to increase with the passing on of the baby-boomer generation. Legacy fundraising is a long-term process, based on developing relationships with donors over time. Data have a key role to play in the development of these relationships, allowing legacy fundraisers to measure and track their donors, and to contribute to the development of effective fundraising strategies. This paper discusses the effective collection and use of data in legacy fundraising, from consolidating data, to analysing the results and building legacy targeting models. The authors discuss how these principles have been applied in UK-based charity, Help the Aged, in conjunction with their Data Agency, Tangible Data (formerly Talking Numbers) and to give practical advice on how they may be implemented in other organisations.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Process innovation laboratory: a new approach to business process innovation based on enterprise information systems

Most organizations today are required not only to operate effective business processes but also to allow for changing business conditions at an increasing rate. Today nearly every business relies on their enterprise information systems (EIS) for process integration and future generations of EIS will increasingly be driven by business process models. Consequently business process modelling and improvement is becoming a serious challenge. The aim of this paper is to establish a conceptual framework for business process innovation (BPI) in the supply chain based on advanced EIS. The challenge is thus to create a new methodology for developing and exploring process models and applications. The paper outlines the process innovation laboratory (Π-Lab) as a new approach to BPI. The Π-Lab is a comprehensive framework and a collaborative workspace for experimenting with process models. The Π-Lab facilitates innovation by using an integrated action learning approach to process modelling in a controlled environment. The study is based on design science and the paper also discusses the implications to EIS research and practice.     

Evidence of bias in NCAA tournament selection and seeding

We investigate bias in the selection and seeding decisions of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee. Using data on 910 teams associated with the ten tournaments from 1999 to 2008, we test for bias toward teams from seven ‘major’ conferences and six ‘mid‐major’ conferences, as well as for bias toward teams represented on the Committee. We find substantial support for the hypothesis of bias in favor of virtually all major and mid‐major conferences in selection and/or seeding, as well as evidence of bias toward majors over mid‐majors. We also find substantial evidence of bias toward teams with some type of Committee representation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new approach to optimal selection of services in health care organizations.

A new reimbursement policy adopted by Medicare in 1983 caused financial difficulties for many hospitals and health care organizations. Several organizations responded to these difficulties by developing systems to carefully measure their costs of providing services. The purpose of such systems was to provide relevant information about the profitability of hospital services. This paper presents a new method of making hospital service selection decisions: it is based on an optimization model that avoids arbitrary cost allocations as a basis for computing the costs of offering a given service. The new method provides more reliable information about which services are profitable or unprofitable, and it provides an accurate measure of the degree to which a service is profitable or unprofitable. The new method also provides useful information about the sensitivity of the optimal decision to changes in costs and revenues. Specialized algorithms for the optimization model lead to very efficient implementation of the method, even for the largest health care organizations.     

Tackling the undeclared economy in the European Union: an evaluation of the tax morale approach

To evaluate a new approach towards tackling the undeclared economy, which views participants as social actors rather than rational economic actors, this article reports evidence from 27,563 face‐to‐face interviews conducted across the European Union during 2013. Multilevel logistic regression analysis reveals a strong association between participation in undeclared work and the level of tax morale. Finding that higher tax morale (and thus a lower propensity to engage in undeclared work) is strongly correlated with greater levels of state intervention but also with individual‐level characteristics such as gender, age, education and employment status, the article concludes not only by confirming a political economy approach and refuting modernization and neo‐liberal explanations and remedies, but also by revealing for the first time the importance of solutions not so far considered, including improving educational attainment, older citizens mentoring for younger people and improving women's participation in the labour force.     

Alternative value estimates of owner-occupied housing: Evidence on sample selection bias and systematic errors

Numerous econometric models have used various estimates of housing value as dependent variables. The three most common measures, in order of descending popularity, have been homeowner estimates, sales price, and assessed value. Each of these measures has limitations. The use of sales price can cause sample selection bias, while owner and tax assessor estimates are subject to measurement error. This study investigates the magnitude of the selection bias associated with sales price samples, and whether the errors in owner and assessor estimates are systematically related to independent variables typically included in estimated equations. Our most important conclusion is that the use of owner estimates may cause bias in the estimated coefficients on many independent variables.     

Productive efficiency of English football teams—a data envelopment analysis approach

This paper investigates how close to their potential English Premier League Clubs play. Using a deterministic Data Envelopment Analysis Approach, the productive efficiency of 20 teams in the 2000/2001 season is measured and weaknesses of individual teams are disclosed. The sensitivity of results is analyzed with regard to different model specifications and variable combinations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of credit supply shocks and a new Financial Conditions Index based on a FAVAR approach

This paper investigates the impact of credit supply shocks on the macroeconomy and estimates a new financial conditions index. We calculated two credit supply factors using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. The first factor is identified as the willingness to lend, while the second factor is the lending capacity. The impact of these two types of shocks and their changes over time is examined using Hungarian data. The two types of lending shocks affect macro variables rather differently: a positive lending capacity shock (in a banking system mostly owned by non-residents) influences GDP through a decrease in country risk and the easing of monetary policy, while willingness to lend primarily increases lending activity. The two financial shocks also differ in terms of their evolution over time: deviations from the average in the impact of a willingness to lend shock usually occur for short periods of time and are of a small degree between the various quarters. However, in the case of lending capacity, certain trends can be observed: before the crisis, the stability of the banking system played an increasing role in country risk, whereas after 2008 it appears that monetary policy paid increasing attention to financial stability. Finally, a new type of financial conditions index is quantified based on our estimates, which measures the impact of the banking system’s lending activity on GDP growth.     

A new emergency management dynamic value assessment model based on social media data: a multiphase decision-making perspective

ABSTRACT

User-Generated Content (UGC) is becoming a powerful data source to support emergency management. Managers usually face two difficulties in practical emergency management. First, the requirement topics for emergency management are changing over time. Second, the value of the same microblog is changing over different emergency phases. The contributions of this study lie in the following aspects. First, this paper develops a multiphase dynamic assessment model. Second, an idea for the dynamic evaluation of UGC is proposed. Third, this paper presents an effective quantification method to assess the dynamic value of social media data.