Price discovery in currency markets

This paper examines the price discovery process in currency markets, basing its analysis on the pivotal distinction between the customer (end-user) market and the interdealer market. It first provides evidence that this price discovery process cannot be based on adverse selection between dealers and their customers, as postulated in standard models, because the spreads dealers quote to their customers are not positively related to a trade’s likely information content. The paper then highlights three factors familiar in the literature – fixed operating costs, market power, and strategic dealing – that may explain the cross-sectional variation in customers’ spreads. The paper finishes by proposing a price discovery process relevant to liquid two-tier markets and providing preliminary evidence that this process applies to currencies.     

Price discovery in spot and futures markets: a reconsideration

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that (a) the futures market leads in the process of price discovery and (b) the presence of arbitrage opportunities has a strong impact on the dynamics of the price discovery process.     

Price discovery in government bond markets

Price discovery in government bond markets is explored using Norwegian data including trades from both tiers of the market and dealer identities. The results show that while aggregate interdealer order flow explains one-fourth of daily yield changes, aggregate customer order flow has little explanatory power. Dealers are heterogeneously informed and appear to have different sources of information. While some dealers mainly rely on their customer trades, others appear to rely on skill in acquiring and interpreting other relevant information, suggesting that dealers play an independent role in the price discovery process.     

Price discovery in carbon exchange traded fund markets

In this study, we analyze the price discovery in four carbon exchange-traded funds (ETF) markets: (i) VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF (Vaneck), (ii) iShares MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF (iShare), (iii) SPDR MCSI ACWI Climate Paris Aligned ETF (SPDR), and (iv) Xtrackers Emerging Markets Carbon Reduction and Climate Improvers ETF (Xtrackers) using daily closing prices of the four carbon ETFs from December 6, 2018, to November 30, 2022. All four ETF prices are found to have a single unit root implying the efficiency of these ETF markets (LeRoy 1989). However, Johansen's (1991) cointegration test reveals that these four ETFs are driven by not one but three common stochastic trends. Further Analysis reveals that iShares and SPDR markets are driven by the same market force (common stochastic trend). Based on the generalized information share (GIS), we find that approximately 57.89% and 42.11% of the price discovery occurs in the iShares and SPDR markets, respectively. We further analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by dividing the whole sample into pre-COVID and COVID subsamples. In the pre-COVID period, the GIS measures for the iShares and SPDR are 88.69% and 11.31%, respectively. However, GIS measures for the iShares and SPDR are 1.04% and 98.96%, respectively, in the COVID period indicating a significant impact of COVID-19 on price discovery.     

Price discovery and persistent arbitrage violations in credit markets

This paper investigates price violations in credit markets using a data sample spanning from 2002 to 2016. We find that price violations are highly persistent during the crisis period, particularly for speculative-grade bonds. There is evidence that price distortions and market disintegration are linked to market-wide and firm-level impediments to arbitrage and limited capital provision. Higher firm-level impediments to arbitrage lead to less market integration, and more severe and persistent pricing discrepancies. Moreover, we find that the negative CDS basis persists in the postcrisis period, which is attributable to dealers’ lower capital commitment and deterioration in market-making quality.     

Integrating auction and search markets: The slow Dutch auction

The issue of choosing to sell property by auction or by traditional negotiated search markets is addressed in this article. A general selling institution called the slow Dutch auction is introduced. This general selling mechanism reduces to either a conventional auction, a posted offer, or some time dependent mix of these selling institutions depending on the pricing rule chosen by the seller. We model search by having potential buyers whose private valuation for the property is unknown to the seller arrive randomly over time. With this general framework the seller's problem is to choose a selling mechanism that maximizes expected wealth. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal selling institution is always a posted offer market. The seller chooses an optimal posted price and waits until a buyer arrives who is willing to pay this price. Auctions are never optimal.     

Preferred suppliers in auction markets

This article examines agreements between a buyer and one of the suppliers which increase their joint surplus. The provisions of such agreements depend on the buyer's ability to design the rules of the final procurement auction. When the buyer does not have this ability, their joint surplus can be increased by an agreement which grants to the preferred supplier a right of first refusal on the lowest price from the other suppliers. When the buyer has this ability, their joint surplus can be maximized by a revelation game for the cost of the preferred supplier and a reserve price based on that cost.     

Price discovery and microstructure in ether spot and derivative markets

Ethereum is an important blockchain, being the first and most popular public platform for the smart contracts underpinning financial transactions, time-stamping of supply chains, decentralized applications and initial coin offerings. Ethereum's cryptocurrency, ether, is actively traded on centralized exchanges, second only to bitcoin. It has attracted investor's interest primarily because of its intrinsic value – small units of ether called ‘gas’ are used, essentially, as the fuel driving smart contract transactions on the Ethereum blockchain. We ask whether off-chain trading on ether derivatives plays a dominant role in ether spot price discovery, thereby driving ether's utility value for on-chain activity. Using minute-by-minute data we find that the ether perpetual swap on BitMEX, an unregulated cryptocurrency derivative exchange, has dominant trading volume and price discovery over the major spot exchanges. Furthermore, we identify interesting hour-of-day and day-of-week effects in trading volume on the spot exchanges, and these indicate that more informed institutional players are trading ether spot and derivatives.     

Price limits in futures markets: effects on the price discovery process and volatility

Price limits are actively employed by many futures exchanges as a regulatory mechanism directed at reducing volatility and improving price discovery process. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price limits achieve these goals without affecting market liquidity for a number of agricultural futures contracts. We employ models of changing volatility in order to show that price limits do not appear to significantly reduce market volatility. In addition, we find evidence confirming the hypothesis that price limits delay price discovery instead of facilitating it. Our results also suggest that the impact of price limits on volatility and price reversals, found in previous studies, are mainly due to the properties inherent to the futures returns, such as volatility clustering. Finally, although trading decreases significantly due to the price limits, traders do not seem to switch from the contracts affected by price limits to other maturities in order to minimize the impact of circuit breakers.     

Public information arrival: Price discovery and liquidity in electronic limit order markets

How information is translated into market prices is still an open question. This paper studies the impact of newswire messages on intraday price discovery, liquidity, and trading intensity in an electronic limit order market. We take an objective ex ante measure of the tone of a message to study the impacts of positive, negative, and neutral messages on price discovery and trading activity. As expected, we find higher adverse selection costs around the arrival of newswire messages. Negative messages are associated with higher adverse selection costs than positive or neutral messages. Liquidity increases around positive and neutral messages and decreases around negative messages. Available order book depth as well as the trading intensity increases around all news. Our results suggest that market participants possess different information gathering and processing capabilities and that negative news messages are particularly informative and induce stronger market reactions.     

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico

This paper investigates the hypotheses that the recently established Mexican stock index futures market effectively serves the price discovery function, and that the introduction of futures trading has provoked volatility in the underlying spot market. We test both hypotheses simultaneously with daily data from Mexico in the context of a modified EGARCH model that also incorporates possible cointegration between the futures and spot markets. The evidence supports both hypotheses, suggesting that the futures market in Mexico is a useful price discovery vehicle, although futures trading has also been a source of instability for the spot market. Several managerial implications are derived and discussed.     

Price discovery in foreign exchange markets: A comparison of indicative and actual transaction prices

In this paper, we compare four months of Reuters EFX high frequency indicative data with D2000-1 inter-dealer transaction data for DEM/USD and GBP/USD. Contrary to previous studies, we find, using various information measures, that the matched tick-by-tick indicative data bear no qualitative difference from the transaction data, and have higher information content. Expanding the system to include order flow, due to its growing importance in exchange rate theory, we find that indicative data has a similar impact on order flow as transaction data. However, order flow has no impact on either price.     

Price discovery in the U.S. stock and stock options markets: A portfolio approach

Option prices vary with not only the underlying asset price, but also volatilities and higher moments. In this paper, we use a portfolio of options to seclude the value change of the portfolio from the impact of volatility and higher moments. We apply this portfolio approach to the price discovery analysis in the U.S. stock and stock options markets. We find that the price discovery on the directional movement of the stock price mainly occurs in the stock market, more so now than before as an increasing proportion of options market makers adopt automated quoting algorithms. Nevertheless, the options market becomes more informative during periods of significant options trading activities. The informativeness of the options quotes increases further when the options trading activity generates net sell or buy pressure on the underlying stock price, even more so when the pressure is consistent with deviations between the stock and the options market quotes. JEL Classification C52, G10, G13, G14     

Price discovery and price leadership of various investor types: evidence from Taiwan futures markets

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Using a unique dataset composed of comprehensive transaction data from Taiwan futures markets, we are able to unambiguously classify all investors...     

Defining next-generation products: an inside look

The continued success of technology-based companies depends on their proficiency in creating next-generation products and their derivatives. So getting such products out the door on schedule must be routine for such companies, right? Not quite. The authors recently engaged in a detailed study--in which they had access to sensitive internal information and to candid interviews with people at every level--of 28 next-generation product-development projects in 14 leading high-tech companies. They found that most of the companies were unable to complete such projects on schedule. And the companies also had difficulty developing the derivative products needed to fill the gaps in the market that their next-generation products would create. The problem in every case, the authors discovered, was rooted in the product definition phase. And not coincidentally, the successful companies in the study had all learned how to handle the technical and marketplace uncertainties in their product definition processes. The authors have discerned from the actions of those companies a set of best practices that can measurably improve the definition phase of any company's product-development process. They have grouped the techniques into three categories and carefully lay out the steps that companies need to take as they work through each stage. The best practices revealed here are not a magic formula for rapid, successful new-product definition. But they can help companies capture new markets without major delays. And that is good news for any manager facing the uncertainty that goes with developing products for a global marketplace.     

Breakthrough thinking from inside the box

Companies often begin their search for great ideas either by encouraging wild, outside-the-box thinking or by conducting quantitative analysis of existing market and financial data and customer opinions. Those approaches can produce middling ideas at best, say Coyne, founder of an executive-counseling firm in Atlanta, and Clifford and Dye, strategy experts at McKinsey. The problem with the first method is that few people are very good at unstructured, abstract brainstorming. The problems with the second are that databases are usually compiled to describe current--not future--offerings, and customers rarely can tell you whether they need or want a product if they've never seen it. The secret to getting your organization to regularly generate lots of good ideas, and occasionally some great ones, is deceptively simple: First, create new boxes for people to think within so that they don't get lost in the cosmos and they have a basis for offering ideas and knowing whether they're making progress in the brainstorming session. Second, redesign ideation processes to remove obstacles that interfere with the flow of ideas--such as most people's aversion to speaking in groups larger than ten. This article offers a tested approach that poses concrete questions. For example, what do Rollerblades, H?agen-Dazs ice cream, and Spider-Man movies have in common? The answer: Each is something that adults loved as children and that was reproduced in an expensive form for grown-ups. Asking brainstorming participants to ponder how their childhood passions could be recast as adult offerings might generate some fabulous ideas for new products or services.     

Optimal auction design in two‐sided markets

A key feature of online markets for advertising (e.g., sponsored links) is that clicking rates depend on the searchers' expectations that the platform selects relevant advertisers. This article studies auction design by a platform that maximizes profits in the long run, where clicking rates are mechanism dependent. In line with the practice of the major search engines, the revenue‐maximizing mechanism is a scoring auction that combines the willingness to pay and the relevance to searchers of advertisers. By trading off rent extraction and clicking volume, this mechanism works as a cross‐subsidization device between searchers and advertisers.     

A simulation analysis of the microstructure of double auction markets

Abstract

We introduce an order-driven market model with heterogeneous agents trading via a central order matching mechanism. Traders set bids and asks and post market or limit orders according to exogenously fixed rules. We investigate how different trading strategies may affect the dynamics of price, bid-ask spreads, trading volume and volatility. We also analyse how some features of market design, such as tick size and order lifetime, affect market liquidity. The model is able to reproduce many of the complex phenomena observed in real stock markets.     

Price discrimination in input markets

We analyze the short‐ and long‐run implications of third‐degree price discrimination in input markets. In contrast to the extant literature, which typically assumes that the supplier is an unconstrained monopolist, in our model input prices are constrained by the threat of demand‐side substitution. In our model, the more efficient buyer receives a discount. A ban on price discrimination thus benefits smaller but hurts more efficient, larger firms. It also stifles incentives to invest and innovate. With linear demand, a ban on price discrimination benefits consumers in the short run but reduces consumer surplus in the long run, which is once again the opposite of what is found without the threat of demand‐side substitution.     

Insider trading in sequential auction markets with risk-aversion and time-discounting

We extend Kyle's [Kyle, A. S. 1985. “Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading.” Econometrica 53, 1315–1335] analysis of sequential auction markets to the case in which the insider is risk-averse and discounts her trading profits as her private information is long-lived. We see that time-discounting exacerbates the impact of risk-aversion on the optimal trading strategy of the insider. Ceteris paribus, a larger degree of risk-aversion or a smaller time-discount factor induces the informed agent to consume more rapidly her informational advantage increasing the liquidity and efficiency of the securities market.