Price discovery in currency markets

This paper examines the price discovery process in currency markets, basing its analysis on the pivotal distinction between the customer (end-user) market and the interdealer market. It first provides evidence that this price discovery process cannot be based on adverse selection between dealers and their customers, as postulated in standard models, because the spreads dealers quote to their customers are not positively related to a trade’s likely information content. The paper then highlights three factors familiar in the literature – fixed operating costs, market power, and strategic dealing – that may explain the cross-sectional variation in customers’ spreads. The paper finishes by proposing a price discovery process relevant to liquid two-tier markets and providing preliminary evidence that this process applies to currencies.     

Price limits in futures markets: effects on the price discovery process and volatility

Price limits are actively employed by many futures exchanges as a regulatory mechanism directed at reducing volatility and improving price discovery process. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price limits achieve these goals without affecting market liquidity for a number of agricultural futures contracts. We employ models of changing volatility in order to show that price limits do not appear to significantly reduce market volatility. In addition, we find evidence confirming the hypothesis that price limits delay price discovery instead of facilitating it. Our results also suggest that the impact of price limits on volatility and price reversals, found in previous studies, are mainly due to the properties inherent to the futures returns, such as volatility clustering. Finally, although trading decreases significantly due to the price limits, traders do not seem to switch from the contracts affected by price limits to other maturities in order to minimize the impact of circuit breakers.     

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico

This paper investigates the hypotheses that the recently established Mexican stock index futures market effectively serves the price discovery function, and that the introduction of futures trading has provoked volatility in the underlying spot market. We test both hypotheses simultaneously with daily data from Mexico in the context of a modified EGARCH model that also incorporates possible cointegration between the futures and spot markets. The evidence supports both hypotheses, suggesting that the futures market in Mexico is a useful price discovery vehicle, although futures trading has also been a source of instability for the spot market. Several managerial implications are derived and discussed.     

Price discovery in foreign exchange markets: A comparison of indicative and actual transaction prices

In this paper, we compare four months of Reuters EFX high frequency indicative data with D2000-1 inter-dealer transaction data for DEM/USD and GBP/USD. Contrary to previous studies, we find, using various information measures, that the matched tick-by-tick indicative data bear no qualitative difference from the transaction data, and have higher information content. Expanding the system to include order flow, due to its growing importance in exchange rate theory, we find that indicative data has a similar impact on order flow as transaction data. However, order flow has no impact on either price.     

Price discovery in the U.S. stock and stock options markets: A portfolio approach

Option prices vary with not only the underlying asset price, but also volatilities and higher moments. In this paper, we use a portfolio of options to seclude the value change of the portfolio from the impact of volatility and higher moments. We apply this portfolio approach to the price discovery analysis in the U.S. stock and stock options markets. We find that the price discovery on the directional movement of the stock price mainly occurs in the stock market, more so now than before as an increasing proportion of options market makers adopt automated quoting algorithms. Nevertheless, the options market becomes more informative during periods of significant options trading activities. The informativeness of the options quotes increases further when the options trading activity generates net sell or buy pressure on the underlying stock price, even more so when the pressure is consistent with deviations between the stock and the options market quotes. JEL Classification C52, G10, G13, G14     

Price discovery and price leadership of various investor types: evidence from Taiwan futures markets

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Using a unique dataset composed of comprehensive transaction data from Taiwan futures markets, we are able to unambiguously classify all investors...     

Defining next-generation products: an inside look

The continued success of technology-based companies depends on their proficiency in creating next-generation products and their derivatives. So getting such products out the door on schedule must be routine for such companies, right? Not quite. The authors recently engaged in a detailed study--in which they had access to sensitive internal information and to candid interviews with people at every level--of 28 next-generation product-development projects in 14 leading high-tech companies. They found that most of the companies were unable to complete such projects on schedule. And the companies also had difficulty developing the derivative products needed to fill the gaps in the market that their next-generation products would create. The problem in every case, the authors discovered, was rooted in the product definition phase. And not coincidentally, the successful companies in the study had all learned how to handle the technical and marketplace uncertainties in their product definition processes. The authors have discerned from the actions of those companies a set of best practices that can measurably improve the definition phase of any company's product-development process. They have grouped the techniques into three categories and carefully lay out the steps that companies need to take as they work through each stage. The best practices revealed here are not a magic formula for rapid, successful new-product definition. But they can help companies capture new markets without major delays. And that is good news for any manager facing the uncertainty that goes with developing products for a global marketplace.     

Breakthrough thinking from inside the box

Companies often begin their search for great ideas either by encouraging wild, outside-the-box thinking or by conducting quantitative analysis of existing market and financial data and customer opinions. Those approaches can produce middling ideas at best, say Coyne, founder of an executive-counseling firm in Atlanta, and Clifford and Dye, strategy experts at McKinsey. The problem with the first method is that few people are very good at unstructured, abstract brainstorming. The problems with the second are that databases are usually compiled to describe current--not future--offerings, and customers rarely can tell you whether they need or want a product if they've never seen it. The secret to getting your organization to regularly generate lots of good ideas, and occasionally some great ones, is deceptively simple: First, create new boxes for people to think within so that they don't get lost in the cosmos and they have a basis for offering ideas and knowing whether they're making progress in the brainstorming session. Second, redesign ideation processes to remove obstacles that interfere with the flow of ideas--such as most people's aversion to speaking in groups larger than ten. This article offers a tested approach that poses concrete questions. For example, what do Rollerblades, H?agen-Dazs ice cream, and Spider-Man movies have in common? The answer: Each is something that adults loved as children and that was reproduced in an expensive form for grown-ups. Asking brainstorming participants to ponder how their childhood passions could be recast as adult offerings might generate some fabulous ideas for new products or services.     

Price discovery of subordinated credit spreads for Japanese mega-banks: Evidence from bond and credit default swap markets

This paper investigates the determinants and dynamics of subordinated credit spreads for Japanese mega-banks using the bond and credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The main findings are as follows. Subordinated bond and CDS spreads are cointegrated in most cases, and the CDS spread plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the bond spread. In addition, there are significant volatility spillovers from the CDS to bond spread. This information leadership for the CDS spread can largely be explained by stronger reactions of the CDS spread to some financial market variables and bank-specific accounting variables than the bond spread.     

Price discovery in tick time

This paper develops a tick time model for the quote setting dynamics on Nasdaq. The model decomposes quotes into an efficient price, asymmetric information and noise. Both the evolution of the efficient price and the information contents of quotes depend on quote durations. New measures for the contribution to price discovery are defined within this model. When aggregated to fixed calendar time intervals, they relate closely to Hasbrouck [Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995, One security, many markets: determining the contribution to price discovery, Journal of Finance 50, 1175–1199] information shares. Empirical results for 20 Nasdaq stocks indicate that ECNs, in particular Island, contribute most to price discovery for active stocks. For less active stocks, wholesale market makers contribute most.     

Price setting in forward-looking customer markets

If consumers form habits in individual goods, firms face a time-inconsistency problem. Low prices in the future help attract customers in the present. Firms, therefore, have an incentive to promise low prices in the future, but price gouge when the future arrives. In this setting, firms benefit from “committing to a sticky price.” If consumers have incomplete information about costs and demand, the firm-preferred equilibrium has the firm price at or below a “price cap.” The model therefore provides an explanation for the simultaneous existence of a rigid regular price and frequent “sales”.     

Price dynamics in limit order markets

This article presents a one-tick dynamic model of a limit ordermarket. Agents choose to submit a limit order or a market orderdepending on the state of the limit order book. Each traderknows that her order will affect the order placement strategiesof those who follow and the execution probability of her limitorder is endogenous. All traders take this into account which,in equilibrium, generates systematic patterns in transactionprices and order placement strategies even with no asymmetricinformation.     

A look inside AMLF: What traded and who benefited

The Federal Reserve’s AMLF program was designed to provide liquidity to money market funds (MMFs). Between September 2008 and May 2009, the program made $217 billion in non-recourse loans to depository institutions and bank holding companies to purchase asset-backed commercial paper from MMFs. JP Morgan and State Street dominated the program, accounting for over 90% of all loans made. Our analysis suggests that JP Morgan exhibited more self-dealing behavior than State Street. We find that JP Morgan and State Street earned economically and statistically significant cumulative returns of 2.28% and 2.49% (respectively) over the first seven days of the program after controlling for market returns and heteroscedasticity.     

Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system

This paper proposes new metrics for the process of price discovery on the main electronic trading platform for euro-denominated government securities. Analysing price data on daily transactions for 107 bonds over a period of 27 months, we find a greater degree of price leadership of the dominant market when our measures (as opposed to the traditional price discovery metrics) are used. We also present unambiguous evidence that a market’s contribution to price discovery is crucially affected by the level of trading activity. The implications of these empirical findings are discussed in the light of the debate about the possible restructuring of the regulatory framework for the Treasury bond market in Europe.     

Convergence of trading strategies in continuous double auction markets with boundedly-rational networked traders

This paper considers the convergence of trading strategies among artificial traders connected to one another in a social network and trading in a continuous double auction financial marketplace. Convergence is studied by means of an agent-based simulation model called the Social Network Artificial stoCk marKet model. Six different canonical network topologies (including no-network) are used to represent the possible connections between artificial traders. Traders learn from the trading experiences of their connected neighbours by means of reinforcement learning. The results show that the proportions of traders using particular trading strategies are eventually stable. Which strategies dominate in these stable states depends to some extent on the particular network topology of trader connections and the types of traders.     

Price dispersion in OTC markets: A new measure of liquidity

In this paper, we model price dispersion effects in over-the-counter (OTC) markets to show that, in the presence of inventory risk for dealers and search costs for investors, traded prices may deviate from the expected market valuation of an asset. We interpret this deviation as a liquidity effect and develop a new liquidity measure quantifying the price dispersion in the context of the US corporate bond market. This market offers a unique opportunity to study liquidity effects since, from October 2004 onwards, all OTC transactions in this market have to be reported to a common database known as the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE). Furthermore, market-wide average price quotes are available from Markit Group Limited, a financial information provider. Thus, it is possible, for the first time, to directly observe deviations between transaction prices and the expected market valuation of securities. We quantify and analyze our new liquidity measure for this market and find significant price dispersion effects that cannot be simply captured by bid-ask spreads. We show that our new measure is indeed related to liquidity by regressing it on commonly-used liquidity proxies and find a strong relation between our proposed liquidity measure and bond characteristics, as well as trading activity variables. Furthermore, we evaluate the reliability of end-of-day marks that traders use to value their positions. Our evidence suggests that the price deviations from expected market valuations are significantly larger and more volatile than previously assumed. Overall, the results presented here improve our understanding of the drivers of liquidity and are important for many applications in OTC markets, in general.     

Quote disclosure and price discovery in multiple-dealer financial markets

We examine the effects of price disclosure on market performancein a continuous experimental multiple-dealer market in whichseven professional market makers trade a single security. Thedealers trade with one another and with computerized informedand liquidity traders. Our key comparison is between fully publicprice queues (pretrade transparent market) and bilateral quoting(pretrade opaque). We find that opening spreads are wider andtrading volume is lower in the opaque markets due to highersearch costs there. More importantly, however, higher searchcosts also induce more aggressive pricing strategies, so thatprice discovery is much faster in the opaque markets.     

Price discovery in Taiwan's foreign exchange market

This paper investigates the dynamics of price adjustments and the price discovery roles of two markets on Taiwan's foreign exchange, TFI and CFE. Results from the multivariate threshold model indicate prices are integrated nonlinearly. The roles of price discovery are asymmetric, depending on the size and sign of the price discrepancies between the two markets. In the lower regime of discrepancies, each market employs information from its counterpart and reacts to each other with different adjustment speeds. When the discrepancy is in the upper regime, CFE's role of price discovery is characterized by its exogenous behavior within the error-correction process.     

Price formation and the appraisal function in real estate markets

A real estate market model characterized by incomplete information, costly search, and varying expectations is presented. The model describes a self-selection process for market participants and a distribution of transaction prices. These transaction prices, which arise from a Nash equilibrium, can be expressed as a noisy signal, reflecting incomplete information as well as the conditions of sale. The appraiser's role is formalized as the task of signal extraction. The model emphasizes the differences in information available to individual buyers and sellers, who make transactions only infrequently, and the appraiser, whose expertise comes from observing many transactions. Based on the model, it is shown that contrary to popular perceptions, appraisal smoothing is consistent with an optimal updating strategy.     

黑盒测试中的路线图测试方法

在软件测试中,特别是适应性测试和验收性测试中,黑盒测试方法被普遍应用。为提高黑盒测试的工作效率,我们基于多年的银行应用软件测试实践,摸索出黑盒测试的基本方法,即路线图测试方法。这种方法虽然是在金融领域产生的,但由于该方法对于黑盒测试工作经验进行了高度提炼,因而在其他领域也有一定的应用价值。